PUBLIC OPINION Definitional preliminaries Measurements Formation Ideological differences in the U.S.

What constitutes a “public”? A group that has something in common. Members of the group: are confronted by an issue are divided in the ideas as how to meet the

issue engage in discussion over the issue

What is an opinion? An opinion is an expression of attitudes at a

particular time Beliefs are the cognitive components: our

understanding of the way things are. Values are ideals how things should be. Attitudes are built upon our beliefs and values. Cognitions (beliefs) lead to affects (feelings) and

predisposition toward certain behavior.

What is Public Opinion? an aggregate of the individual views, attitudes,

and beliefs about a particular topic, expressed by a significant proportion of a community.

a synthesis of the views of all or a certain segment of society (the collective view of a population)

or a collection of many differing or opposing views.

What is Public Opinion? The attitudes and beliefs communicated by

ordinary citizens to decision makers

The American political scientist V.O. Key defined public opinion in 1961 as “opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed.”

In order for a phenomenon to count as public opinion, there must be:

(1) an issue, (2) a significant number of individuals who

express opinions on the issue, (3) some kind of a consensus among at least some

of these opinions, and (4) this consensus must directly or indirectly exert

influence.

Why study Public Opinion? Policy, in Democratic States, Should Rest

on Public opinion. E.g., Public Opinion Dictates the Bounds of U.S. Foreign Policy

Respect for public opinion increases Political Efficacy and Social Trust

Public Opinion Provides Clues About Culture.

CURRENT POLLS Pew Research Center http://www.people-press.org/

Understanding society / culture

Gay Marriage  YEAR Favor Oppose Unsure 2004 30% 58% 12% 2006 39% 51% 10% 2008 38% 49% 13% 2010 42% 48% 10% 2012 47% 43% 10% 2013 53% 39% 8%

Learning about the U.S. in context of other countries

Government has responsibility to reduce income differences

UK US NL NZ CAN

Defini-tely yes

43 18 39 35 28

Proba-bly yes

38 28 40 30 33

Proba-bly not

10 25 13 15 20

Defini-tely no

7 27 6 18 17

Sexual relations before marriage

UK US NL DK CAN

Always wrong

11 30 7 6 12

Almost always wrong

7 11 3 3 7

Some-times

14 20 20 9 15

Not wrong at all

66 38 70 83 65

Religion brings more conflict than peace

UK US NL DK CAN

Agree 78 35 70 86 63

Neither 12 21 16 7 17

Disagree

9 43 14 6 20

There is hell

UK US NL DK JAP

YES 13 55 13 8 6

Maybe

NO 34 12 48 60 21

There is heaven

UK US NL DK JAP

YES 23 66 23 14 7

Maybe

NO 21 6 31 43 19

Believe in God

UK US NL DK JAP

NO 41 18 48 55 55

Some-times

14 5 8 11 32

YES with doubts

23 15 18 20 9

YES without a doubt

26 63 26 14 4

People with strong faith are intolerant of others

UK US NL DK CAN

YES 79 49 78 79 67

Not sure

13 23 15 12 17

NO 8 28 7 9 16

Europe vs. U.S. on death penalty

1997: 75% of Americans supported death penalty

2011: 61% of Americans support death penalty.

2008: about 30% of Europeans support death penalty

Are in favor of the death penalty for a person convicted of murder?

A person has the right to suicide if he/she is tired of living

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80

90

YESNO

Happiness .

0

10

20

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60

Very HappyPretty HappyNot too happy

Trust .

0

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60

Most peoplecan be trustedCan't be toocareful

Measuring Public Opinion Almost always measured by

aggregating individual opinions

Sometimes by observing mass behavior (demonstrations, strikes, etc.)

The depth vs. the extent Practical considerations: the time

and resources needed to measure public opinion

More people = less depth

methods By direct response (surveys,

focus groups, interviews) By observation of behavior

(election results, consumer behavior)

By experiments By analysis of mass media /

literature

The analysis of mass media etc.

Content analysis of the news Content analysis of other

available records

Usually post facto (e.g., historical research)

Usually explanatory, not descriptive

Experiments A mode of observation that enables

researchers to probe causal relations Explaining why something happens

(not what happens): e.g., x happens because of y.

Predictive value True experiments vs. quasi-

experiments

Observation of behavior Elections

Consumer behavior (e.g., product preferences)

Other (e.g., reading patterns, college enrollment, crime)

A direct response Focus groups (group dynamics /

deliberation)

In-depth interviews

Surveys (polls)

Surveys / polls Key element of polling: sampling.

First: selection of specific population.

Populations: the entire adult population, registered voters, whites only, Hispanic only, college students, etc.

Second: taking a sample from the population.

Sampling Random sample (strict probability): Each person has exactly the same chance

of being drawn as any other person from the population under consideration

Probability sample / oversampling: some units are more likely to be drawn

Confidence level / sampling error

Confidence level: the probability of “perfect” random sample.

Usually 95% Sampling error / margin of error:

possible error in accuracy of results.

Sample size / confidence Samples around 1,000 are usually

adequate for populations of 100,000 and larger (including U.S. adult population of about 200 million).

Sampling error for such samples is usually around 3 – 4 percent.

What’s so special about 1000 respondents?

“Margin of error” is largely driven by the size of the sample. The larger the sample, the smaller the ‘margin of error’

As the sample size increases the “margin of error” falls, quite dramatically between small sample sizes of say 100 and larger sample sizes of say 1000. But once we get to 1000, we don’t see much change in the “margin of error”

BAD SAMPLE

To collect random samples is very expensive

Instead, some researchers use convenience samples, e.g. self-selected opinion polls, or SLOP surveys. 

Margin of sampling error cannot be estimated for a SLOP poll, no matter how large.

Problems / challenges Selecting samples (“cell-phone problem”) Questionnaires Misuse of polls (“push polls”)

Question Wording

The general principle: every respondent should understand the

question and be able to answer it with reliability – that is, if she were asked the same question again, she would give the same answer.

Open versus Closed Questions

Open: What is the most important problem facing the country today?

Closed: Which of the following problems is the most important one facing the country today?

Double negative (confusing)

Provide a simple “Agree” or “Disagree” response.

On occasion, I am unable to express how interested in politics I am.

When the respondent answers “Agree” does it mean he is not interested in politics? Or he is interested but just can’t express himself well? This question would be better worded as:

I am usually interested in politics.

Double-barreled:

Did you vote in the 2004 and 2006 elections? When the respondent answers “yes” does it mean

that she voted in 2004 and 2006, in 2004 but not in 2006, or in 2006 but not in 2004? This question could be worded as two separate questions or in the following way:

Did you vote in both 2004 and 2006, in 2004 but not 2006, in 2006 but not in 2004, or in neither election?

Leading: In this question form, an initial phrase leads the

respondent by suggesting the position of an authority with which it might be difficult for the respondent to disagree (or agree). Leading questions introduce a bias

Do you support President Bush’s decision to send additional troops to Iraq?

A better question might be: Do you favor or oppose sending additional troops

to Iraq?

Question Order: the order of the questions may be designed to “lead” the respondent

For example, if you ask questions about a specific issue like the economy before asking what the most important problem is facing the nation, respondents will be more likely to name the economy in that subsequent question then they would have been without having that context set up for them.

Problems with questions Imagine the U.S. is preparing for the

outbreak of an unusual disease, which is expected to kill 600 people.

Two alternative programs have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:

Which of these two programs do you favor?

If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.

If program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved, and a two-third probability that no people will be saved.

Which of these two programs do you favor?

If Program C is adopted, 400 people will die.

If Program D is adopted, there is a one-third probability that nobody will die, and a two-third probability that 600 people will die.

Combination of methods Mutual verification External consistency among different

measurements

Public opinion formation Every opinion is a marriage of

information and predisposition:

Information forms a mental picture Predisposition motivates some conclusion

Converting information into public opinion

Elaboration Likelihood Model: What happens when a person receives a persuasive message?

Distinct routes of processing: Central route (Elaboration occurs) Peripheral route (Nonelaboration)

Elaboration Likelihood Model

Elaboration = the extent to which a person thinks about the issue-relevant arguments contained in a message.

Elaboration: complex processes; active thinking and active counterargument.

Nonelaboration: superficial thoughts; unthinking acceptance or unthinking rejection

Elaboration Likelihood Model

Elaboration depends upon motivation and ability: low motivation and low ability leads to more peripheral processing.

Elaboration Likelihood Model Motivation depends on: Involvement Diversity of Argument Need for Cognition Ability depends on the rationality of a

person

Elaboration Likelihood Model Central route: The strength of the argument

Peripheral: Credibility / Liking Number of arguments

Psychological theories Conditioning Cognitive Dissonance

Conditioning Classical (association). Operant (reinforcement)Positive reinforcement (favorable stimulus to

cause/increase behavior)Negative reinforcement (removal of aversive

stimulus to cause behavior)Positive punishment (aversive stimulus to decrease

behavior)Negative punishment (removal of favorable stimulus

to decrease behavior)

Cognitive Dissonance Theory Any two cognitive elements will have one

of three kinds of relationships: Irrelevant (I like ice cream and I am aware

of dangers of drunk driving) Consonant (I like ice cream and I know

that dairy products are good for the body) Dissonant (I like ice cream and I am aware

of the dangers of high cholesterol)

Cognitive Dissonance Theory Inconsistency between two cognitins gives

rise to the uncomfortable psychological state of “cognitive dissonance”

Because dissonance is so very uncomfortable to us, we will do almost anything to reduce the dissonance in order to achieve consonance

Three ways in which dissonance can be reduced

1. One might change one or more of the cognitive elements

(a) change the original behavior: stop eating ice cream or reduce frequency of eating ice cream

(b) or reject the new information: it is not true that cholesterol is bad for you

Three ways in which dissonance can be reduced

2. New elements might by added

Eating ice cream is extremely enjoyable

Ice cream alone is not that bad; there are worse things with cholesterol

3. One might come to see the elements as less important

The research on cholesterol is inconclusive.

Cognitive Dissonance Theory in decision making

The amount of dissonance depends on: Importance of the decision Attractiveness of the chosen alternative Perceived attractiveness of the unchosen

alternative

A new book on the subject

Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts

by Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson

Rational Choice (economic)

There is no common good or public interest

Primary goal of individuals is to maximize benefits in a self-centered and selfish way

Self-interest as the means Individuals have goals They pursue goals by minimizing

costs and maximizing benefits

Complete information Low information Cost of participation

The Prisoners’ dilemmaCooperate=stick to their innocenceDefect=rat on the other prisoner

Prisoner # 1

Coope-rate

Defect

Prisoner# 2

Coope-rate

-2 -2

0 -10

Defect -10 0

-5 -5

Predispositions People tend to resist arguments that are

inconsistent with their political predisposition

Public Opinion Formation: Predispositions

Political socialization: the transmission of the political culture from one generation to another

Political culture: A distinctive and patterned way of thinking about how political and economic life ought to be carried out.

Stereotyping / Frames of reference

Cognitive frameworks consisting of knowledge and beliefs about specific social groups (suggesting that all members of a group possess certain traits)

Allow to make quick judgments Self-confirming role Prejudice, favoritism

Predispositions: SimilaritiesAmerican Political Culture

Liberty: the perception that a minimum of limitations should be preserved

Free enterprise / competition Political participation and its

effectiveness (efficacy) Equality: Equal opportunity / equal

outcomes Secular values / Religious freedom

Influences on socialization The Family The Peer Group The Schools College Workplace Political Parties

Predispositions: The Differences

Conservatives Liberals

Libertarians Populists

The median voter phenomena

Divided America ?

Elections 2000

Elections 2000 (population adjusted)

Elections 2000 by counties

Elections 2000 by counties (population adjusted)

Elections 2000 by “close” counties (less than 55-45%)

Elections 2000 by “close” counties (less than 55-45%). Population adjusted