public market trends in ophthalmology
TRANSCRIPT
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August 2016Public Market Trends in Ophthalmology
Andrew GitkinHead, West Coast Biotech Investment Banking
Member SIPC and FINRA
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3PIPER JAFFRAY
US Markets Had the Worst 10-Day Start in History in 2016Key
Drivers
Uncertainty with
Fed
Weakness in oil prices
VRX Aftermat
h
Decline in China
1/1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0% Dow Jones NASDAQ S&P 500 NBI
(5.1%)(5.5%)
(7.9%)
(21.0%)
Source: CapitalIQ as of July 29, 2016
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4PIPER JAFFRAY
J-16 F-16 M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16(15.0%)
(10.0%)
(5.0%)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Brexit and
Geopolitical Shocks
Equity Markets Bounce Back Despite Lingering Concerns
Source: CapitalIQ as of July 29, 2016
Key Drivers
DJI NASDAQ S&P 500 Stability in Commoditi
es
Improving Labor
Market
FOMO Rally
Election Uncertain
ty
US Safe Haven Status
Significant Currency
Fluctuations
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5PIPER JAFFRAY
Positive Signs of Market Upswing EmergingNet Equity Fund Flows Since 2015 ($BN)
Hedge Funds Playing Catch Up
Largest intra-quarter reversal
since 1933
($50)
($40)
($30)
($20)
($10)
$0
$10 $7
($7)
($24)
($8)
($44)($46)
$0
J-16 F-16 M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10% HFRXS&P500
Source: Dealogic, Capital IQ as of July 29, 2016
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6PIPER JAFFRAY
Financial Profile of Corporate America Remains RobustS&P 500 Earnings Guidance S&P 500 1-Year Forward P/E
Source: Fidelity, Bloomberg, CapitalIQ as of July 29, 2016
Positive-to-Negative Guidance Ratio
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Ratio (12-Month) Average
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Median = 15.2x
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20160.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
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7PIPER JAFFRAY
Equity Market Outlook
Bulls Resilient U.S.
market Limited upside in
the U.S. dollar Treasury yields at
record lows Positive economic
fundamentals Historically low
global rate environment
Subdued inflation and a dovish Fed
Bears Geopolitical risk
(Brexit, Turkey, etc.) Heightened volatility
during elections Changes in the Fed’s
monetary stance Emerging market
stress Shocks of
noneconomic origin
Piper Jaffray forecasts a 2,350 S&P 500 year-end price target, ~8% above current levels
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8PIPER JAFFRAY
So What Does This Mean For the Healthcare Market in 2016?S&P Sector Performance - YTD
Source: CapitalIQ as of July 29, 2016-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
(-1.1%)
4.5%
5.0%
7.0%
8.2%
8.3%
8.6%
10.8%
20.3%
20.7%
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9PIPER JAFFRAY
J-14 M-14 S-14 J-15 M-15 S-15 J-16 M-16(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sector Rotation out of Biotech in 2016
Source: CapitalIQ as of July 29, 2016
Key Observatio
ns
Political Headwinds
/ Pricing
Heightened Risk Aversion
Healthcare Energy Trade
Decoupled
44
Days
NBI S&P 500Medtech Index Energy Index
VIX
70
Days
VRX News
Slowdown 1
Slowdown 2 90
+
Days
Slowdown 3
Portfolio Rationalization
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10PIPER JAFFRAY
J-15 A-15 J-15 O-15 J-16 A-16 J-16(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%)
10%)
20%)
30%)
40%)Biotech IndexMedtech IndexBiotech Ophthalmology
Ophthalmology Traded in Line with the Broader Market
1) Medtech Ophthalmology includes: Clearside, Glaukos, J&J, Presbia, and STAAR2) Biotech Ophthalmology includes: Aerie, AGTC, Allergan, Bayer, Gensight, Inotek, Nicox, Novartis/Alcon, Ocular, Omeros, Ophthotech, Regeneron, Shire, Valeant
• Company-specific events and volatile new IPOs caused medtech ophthalmology to trail the medtech index in 2015
• Biotech ophthalmology traded in line with the biotech index and saw a major reversal in 2016 relative to medtech
Source: Capital IQ
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11PIPER JAFFRAY
M&AIPO
Nov 2015
Key Events and Investor Themes in Ophthalmology
Jan 15May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16
May 16 Jul 16
July 2015
July 2015
Feb 2015 Aug 2015
July 2016Feb 2016
July 2016
June 2015
Jan 2015
Jan 2015
June 2016Feb 2015
Strong Fundamentals• Growing market• Sustained innovation• Strong pricing dynamics• Favorable reimbursement
environment
IPO Capital Raised M&A Exits
$604m $1.4B+
Source: Public filings, Dealogic
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12PIPER JAFFRAY
Historical IPO Activity Has Meaningfully Declined in 2016…
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.2
$0.2
$0.2
$0.1
$0.3
$0.2
$0.4
$0.1
$0.2
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.3
$1.1
$1.4
$0.9
$2.1
$1.3
$1.6
$1.8
$0.9
$2.2
$1.8
$0.8
$0.6
$0.6
$0.9
Capital Raised ($BN)
Medtech
Biopharma
Q12013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12014
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12015
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12016
Q2 Q30
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
5
14 1611
29
17
24
1612
21
1410
610
4
2
3
2
2
3
3
4
1
1 1
Medtech IPOs
Source: Piper Jaffray
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13PIPER JAFFRAY
Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16(25%)
0%
25%
50%
2016 IPOs Faced Meaningful Pricing Pressure But Have Performed Well
Data as of 07/29/2016
Biopharma IPO Pricing Trends 2016 Biopharma Rolling IPO Performance
2013 2014 2015 Q12016
Q22016
Q32016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
42.9% 45.3% 41.5% 42.9%
75.0%
45.2% 41.3%
30.2%
57.1%
25.0%
50.0%
11.9% 13.3%
28.3%
Above In Range Below Historical Performances2014 2015 2016 YTD
47.5% 0.6% 9.5%
50.0%
Source: Public filings, Dealogic
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14PIPER JAFFRAY
Key Success Factors for Going Public in Today’s Market
Significant levels of crossover and insider support at launch
Valuable lead program with de-risked development plan for multiple products
Targeting attractive markets with long duration assets
Positive data and near term catalysts
Demonstrated investor interest
Experienced management team and Board of Directors
Valuation at current market levels
Quarterly Insider Support Trends
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
0% 20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
57.1%
88.9%
100.0%
Source: Public filings, Piper Jaffray
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15PIPER JAFFRAY