Providing more useful (uncertain) scientific information for decision-making:

End-to-end-to-end research

Rebecca E. Morss (NCAR),

Olga Wilhelmi, Mary Downton, and Eve Gruntfest

Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006

• Qualitative research study to improve scientific information about flood risk for use in flood management decisions

• Lessons learned on the interactions among scientific information, (uncertainty,) and decision-making

• End-to-end-to-end research

• Discussion

Outline

Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006

Motivation for study

• Despite flood risk management, flood damages remain high

– 1983-2003: average of $4.5 billion property damage, 98 deaths per year in U.S.

• Flood risk management relies on estimates of risk of extreme flooding –– which are uncertain for multiple reasons

• Focus region: Colorado Front Range

Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006

Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006

• How is scientific information about extreme flooding used in flood management decision-making?

• How does uncertainty in risk of extreme flooding interact with flood management decision-making?

• What new or improved scientific information about flood risk could we provide that would benefit flood management decision-making?

Research questions for study

Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006

Some findings

• Decision-makers (practitioners) are diverse, unique, and intertwined

Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006

Local government floodplain manager

A decision-maker

Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006

Local government agencies

(e.g., floodplain management)

Web of decision-makers

Professional associations

Private engineering consultants

Private land developers

Public (e.g., homeowners)

Private businesses

Local government elected officials

State & regional governments

Federal government

Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006

Some findings

• Practitioners’ ability and motivation to use new methods/information are often limited by political, technical, resource, and contextual constraints– For information to be useful, it must apply to

practitioners’ specific decision-making settings

– Relationships, trust, and credibility can be important

• Assumptions can create barriers– To provide useful information, scientists must interact

with practitioners regularly, to learn to appreciate their perspective, constraints, and decision-making context

• So, to help surmount these challenges …

Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006

Scientists’ traditional or “end-to-end” view of research & development

Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006

Scientists’ traditional or “end-to-end” view of research & development

Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006

“End-to-end-to-end” research &

development to aid decision-making

Rebecca E. Morss Boulder WAS*IS II Workshop 17 July 2006

End-to-end-to end research involves

• Integrated (interdisciplinary), problem-oriented research & development that incorporates decision-makers’ needs and considerations

• Multiple iterations through process, with frequent multidirectional communication and feedback

• Mutual education, building trust & credibility

• Long-term partnerships among researchers, product developers, and practitioners

• Co-production of knowledge and tools

Questionsand

Discussion