20/08/98

Protection of the Ozone Layer -

Montreal Protocol:

Themes for 1998

A Presentation Kit

UNEPOzone Secretariat

20/08/98 2

The Montreal Protocol is Working

Scientific assessment shows that the abundance of ozone-depleting chemicals in the lower atmosphere is declining.

However, abundance of Halons is increasing due to releases from banks.

Production of CFCS and Halons has declined by 86 % in the last ten years.

The ozone depletion in Antarctic, Arctic and mid latitudes is continuing, due to past emissions of CFCs. It will peak in the next few years.

20/08/98 3

World CFC Production 1950-96

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Thousand Tons

Source: DuPont, Worldwatch estimates

Montreal Protocol Signed (1987)

First Ozone depletion theory published (1974)

20/08/98 4

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

1996

0.00

200,000.00

400,000.00

600,000.00

800,000.00

1,000,000.00

1,200,000.00

OD

P T

on

ne

s

Year

Production of CFCs( As Reported to the Ozone Secretariat, UNEP)

Developing Countries

CEIT Countries

Industrialised Countries

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

1996

0.0

200,000.0

400,000.0

600,000.0

800,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,200,000.0

OD

P T

on

ne

s

Year

Consumption of CFCs( As Reported to the Ozone Secretariat, UNEP)

Developing Countries

CEIT Countries

Industrialised Countries

CFCs Production and Consumption Trends

20/08/98 5

Halons Production and Consumption Trends

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

1996

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

OD

P T

on

ne

s

Year

Production of Halons( As Reported to the Ozone Secretariat, UNEP)

Developing Countries

CEIT Countries

Industrialized Countries

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

1996

0.0

50,000.0

100,000.0

150,000.0

200,000.0

250,000.0

OD

P T

on

ne

s

Year

Consumption of Halons( As Reported to the Ozone Secretariat, UNEP)

Developing Countries

CEIT Countries

Industrialized Countries

20/08/98 6

Atmospheric Concentrations of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, Carbon Tetrachloride, Methyl Chloroform and Total Gaseous Chlorine

(Source: World Resource 1998-1999, WRI)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Year

Ga

s A

bu

nd

an

ce

in P

PT

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

To

tal G

as

eo

us

Ch

lori

ne

in

PP

T

CFC-11

CFC-12

CFC-113

Carbon Tetrachloride

Methyl Chloroform

Total Gaseous Chlorine

20/08/98 7

Halons in the Atmosphere

Measured Atmospheric Concentrations of Halon-1211 at Cape Grim, Tasmania

(Source: Stratopheric Ozone 1996)

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Year

H-1

21

1 M

ixin

g R

ati

o (

pp

tv)

Measured Atmospheric Concentrations of Halon-1301 at Cape Grim, Tasmania

(Source: Stratopheric Ozone 1996)

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

2.4

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998Year

H-1

30

1 M

ixin

g R

ati

o (

pp

tv)

20/08/98 8

Developing Countries

Ten years ago, the share of the developing countries and the Russian Federation (then USSR) in the total production of CFCs was 15%. In 1996, it is 80%. For Halons it was 7% ten years ago and 100% now.

20/08/98 9

CFCs and Halons Production by Developing Countries

20/08/98 10

Ozone Depletion

The ozone depletion in Antarctic, Arctic and mid latitudes is continuing, due to past emissions of CFCs. It will peak in the next few years.

Given full Implementation of the Montreal Protocol by all countries, the Ozone Layer will recover by the middle of the 21st century.

20/08/98 11

The Multilateral Fund

The Multilateral Fund of the Protocol has been very successful. It has so far disbursed over $ 768 million to more than 100 developing countries to phase out more than half of their CFC consumption. It will continue assistance till the phase out is completed.

20/08/98 12

Multilateral Ozone Fund CumulativeFunds Approved and CFC Tonnes Phased Out

( As Reported to the Ozone Secretariat, UNEP)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Year

OD

P T

on

ne

s o

f C

FC

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

US

$ M

illio

n

Cumulative ODP Tonnes

Cumulative Funds Approved

The Multilateral Ozone Fund

20/08/98 13

CEIT Countries

The Global Environment Facility (GEF) is assisting the Russian Federation and other Eastern and Central Europe countries to implement the Montreal Protocol.

It has so far sanctioned US$ 111 million to 11 countries. The countries that have been assisted: Belarus, Bulgaria, the Czech

Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine.

Consumption of CFCs in these countries has decreased from 150,000 tonnes in 1986 to about 20,000 tonnes in 1996. It is hoped that with the support from GEF, these countries will complete their phase-out by the year 2000.

20/08/98 14

If there were no Protocol, .....

The ozone depletion by the year 2050 would have been at least 50% in the mid latitudes in the northern half of the earth, 70% in the mid latitudes of the south, about 10 times larger than today. The UV-B radiation would have doubled in the north and quadrupled in the south in the same places. The ozone depleting chemicals in the atmosphere would have been 5 times larger.

The implications of this increase would have been horrendous - 19 million more cases of non- melanoma cancer, 1.5 million cases of melanoma cancer, 130 million more cases of eye cataracts

20/08/98 15

Without Montreal Protocol ...

Larger Ozone Losses AvoidedOzone-Damaging Stratospheric Chlorine/Bromine

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Year

Ab

un

da

nc

e (

pa

rts

pe

r tr

illio

n)

No Protocol

MontrealProtocol

Copenhagen Amendments

Annual Deaths from Melanoma and Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer Averted Due to Montreal Protocols (Mean Estimate)

(Source: Global Benefits abd Costs of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Year

De

ath

s A

ve

rte

d

Non-Melanoma Deaths

Melanoma Deaths

Total

20/08/98 16

Challenges

There are many challenges to be overcome before we celebrate.

Many parties are yet to ratify the Amendments to the Protocol, which included controls on more chemicals. 166 parties ratified the Protocol. Only 123 ratified London Amendment and 80 the Copenhagen Amendment.

20/08/98 17

Ozone Protocol and Amendments Ratification Status(Information provided by the Depositary, the UN Office of Legal Affairs, New York, as of August 4th,1998)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Year

Number of Countries

Vienna Convention (167)

Montreal Protcol (166)

London Amendment (123)

Copenhagen Amendment (80)

Montreal Amendment (2)

20/08/98 18

Ratification Status of the Montreal Protocol

Countries that have NOT Ratified the Montreal Protocol (24 Countries)

Sierra LeoneSomaliaEquatorial GuineaAlbaniaArmeniaAfghanistanBhutanCambodiaIraqKazakhstanKyrgyzstanLao (PDR)OmanPalauHaitiAndorraSan Marino

AngolaCape VerdeDjiboutiEritreaGuinea-BissauRwandaSao Tome & Principe

20/08/98 19

Challenges (continued)

Russian Federation and other countries of former USSR are yet to implement their obligations. They promised to do so by the year 2000.

Illegal flow of CFCs to the industrialised countries is of concern. Potential for spread of Methyl Bromide to more countries and more

applications is of concern. Now it is used only in some countries for a small number of crops.

The developing countries, some of whom have increased their consumption so far, as allowed by the Protocol, have to begin their phase out with a freeze from 1 July 1999.

20/08/98 20

Challenges (continued)

Developing countries are concerned about increasing flow of CFC products, for example, refrigerators, to their countries from countries who have adopted Ozone safe products. This will increase their demand for CFCs for maintenance of these products.

Global warming could increase ozone depletion. Also, HFCs, now used as alternatives for CFCs in some applications, have global warming potential and are controlled by the Kyoto Protocol. The interconnections need to be studied.

20/08/98 21

Global Warming Potential of some Ozone Depleting Substances and Alternatives

0.022

0.055

0.065

0.1

0.11

0.6

0.6

0.8

1

1

1

1.1

3

10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

HFC-134a

HFC-32

HCFC-124

HCFC-22

HCFC-142b

Methyl Chloroform

HCFC-141b

Methyl Bromide

CFC-115

CFC-113

CFC-11

CFC-114

CFC-12

Carbon Tetrachloride

Halon-1211

Halon-1301

Ozone Depletion Potential (CFC-11 = 1)(Source: The Montreal Protocol)

20/08/98 22

Worldwide Production of CFCs, HCFCs, and HFCs(Production as reported by AFEAS member companies)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Year

103 M

etr

ic T

on

ne

s

CFCs (11,12,113,114,115)

HCFCs (22,141b,142b)

HFC (134a)

20/08/98 23

Lessons of the Montreal Protocol

Precautionary principle, signals to industries, integration of science with policy, recognition of the special situation of the developing countries, common but differentiated responsibility, flexibility to take into account scientific and technological developments over time.

20/08/98 24

Countries that have Not Ratified the Montreal Protocol

Albania Armenia Angola Cape Verde Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Guinea-Bissau Rwanda Sao Tome & Principe Sierra Leone Somalia

Haiti Andorra San Marino Afghanistan Bhutan Cambodia Iraq Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Lao (PDR) Oman Palau