prospects for food & water availability and quality a view based on climate change let's...
TRANSCRIPT
Prospects for Food & Water Availability and Quality
A view based on Climate Change
Let's AvoidClimate Change
Climate Change is Happening
Mitigation Effects/Adaptation
Bruce A. McCarlDistinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University
[email protected], http//ageco.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl
Presented at a meeting on Megaregions + MetroProsperity: Sustainable Economics for the Texas Triangle
During panel on Food & water: Are we secure? Houston, September 24, 2009
Coverage
Do we have a food issue now?
What will climate change do to food?
What will climate change due to water?FreshSea level
What are challenges of climate change mitigation and adaptation
Do we have a food issue now?
The Texas Megaregion is Food Deficit and has no prospects of being any other way. We import.
As a state we are food surplus likely only in cotton ( 30%)
beef (16%)wheat (5-7%)Broilers (6%)
None of these are big enough in triangle area
201020082006200420022000199819960.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1997-2008
20
10
20
00
19
90
19
80
19
70
19
60
19
50
19
40
19
30
19
20
19
10
19
00
18
90
18
80
18
70
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Global Mean Tempererature
NCDC Global Land+OceanTemperature Anomaly Relative to 20th Century Avg
Date
Tem
pera
ture
An
om
aly
(°C
)Some say recent data shows this is over
Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009),Is the climate warming or cooling?, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. (accepted 30 March 2009)
19981996199419921990198819860.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1987-1996
201020082006200420022000199819960.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1997-2008
20
10
20
00
19
90
19
80
19
70
19
60
19
50
19
40
19
30
19
20
19
10
19
00
18
90
18
80
18
70
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Global Mean Tempererature
NCDC Global Land+OceanTemperature Anomaly Relative to 20th Century Avg
Date
Tem
pera
ture
An
om
aly
(°C
)
Ups and downs in global atmospheric temperatures over a decade are not easy to interpret
Global Average Climate Change
19901985198019750.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
1977-1989
Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009),Is the climate warming or cooling?, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. (accepted 30 March 2009)
Precipitation is increasing but not here
Amount from wet days is increasing
Subtropics forecast to be drier
Degree of climate change Precipitation
• Less water
Degree of climate change - What is projected
Texas in relatively severely affected area
Nationally more crops – Texas 25% less acresCold limited acres CO2 effect
Source McCarl work for US National Assessment
Table 2 National crop sensitivity over all crops giving average yield change in percent to 2030 -- GCM behind Climate Scenario -- Hadley Canadian CSIRO REGCM Corn Belt 24.02 18.23 6.05 6.58 Great Plains 25.29 17.28 3.67 4.82 Lake States 43.75 53.03 9.34 11.84 Northeast 9.48 -2.07 2.13 4.45 Rocky Mountains 27.74 19.37 18.27 15.04 Pacific Southwest 17.76 21.44 15.58 15.05 Pacific Northwest 65.42 17.01 17.22 18.30 South Central 13.25 -6.06 -0.71 -0.79 Southeast 10.00 -3.16 3.84 2.40 South West 21.66 14.69 3.38 2.60National 25.14 16.51 6.02 6.46 Red signifies results below mean
http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/papers/778.pdf
Live with it - Agriculture
IPCC 0.18-0.6 meters (no ice melt)Greenland 7 metersAntarctica 55 metersScenarios 1-5 meters
Houston 13 meters
Sea Level – Coastal
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRMapsIndex.html
http://www.glo.state.tx.us/coastal/erosion/reimbursement/pdf/Surfside_Beach_historic_shorelines.pdf
Pre industrial - 275 Counting Non CO2
1985 - 345 this is increase almost doubles2007 - 380+
Mitigation of climate change Why is this happening
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html
Climate change mitigation – Texas and GHGs
0.0
100.0200.0
300.0400.0
500.0
600.0700.0
800.0
AL
AR
AZ
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
IA
ID
IL
IN
KS
KY
LA
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
MO
MS
MT
NC
ND
NE
NH
NJ
NM
NV
NY
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VA
VT
WA
WI
WV
WY
US EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html
2003 State by State Energy related CO2 emissions -- Texas wins
US EPA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html
Most emissions from energy Emissions growing
Why Adapt - Inevitability
500
600
700
800
Stabilizationlevel
(ppm CO2-eq)
Global mean temp. increase
at equilibrium (ºC)
Year CO2 needs to peak
Year CO2 emissions back at
2000 level
Reduction in 2050 CO2 emissions compared to
2000
445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 - 2015 2000- 2030 -85 to -50
490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 - 2020 2000- 2040 -60 to -30
535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 - 2030 2020- 2060 -30 to +5
590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 - 2060 2050- 2100 +10 to +60
710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 2050 - 2080 +25 to +85
855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 2060 - 2090 +90 to +140
Basic Resources
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, http://www.ipcc.ch/.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007: Mitigation , http://www.ipcc.ch/.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - The Scientific Basis, http://www.ipcc.ch/.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Synthesis Report, http://www.ipcc.ch/.
National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program , Climate Change Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Overview: 2000 http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overview.htm
National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program , Climate Change Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Foundation: 2000 http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/foundation.htm
http://agecon.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl/papers.htm