proposition 8 post-election california voter survey
DESCRIPTION
Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey. Prepared by David Binder Research. Conducted November 6 th - 16 th , 2008. Research Methodology. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Proposition 8Post-Election California Voter Survey
Prepared by David Binder Research
Conducted November 6th - 16th, 2008
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Research Methodology
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800 voters living in California who voted in the November 2008 election, plus an additional oversample of 266 Asian, Latino, and African American voters.
Methodology
Respondents
Dates Poll was conducted November 6th to 16th, 2008.
Margin of Error
Margin of error: 3.0%
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SummaryFindings
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Summary Findings: Overall
OverallResults
• Proposition 8 was passed on November 4, 2008 by a margin of 52% to 48% by a margin of about 600,000 votes out of 1.3 million votes cast.
• Two areas of the state stood out: The Central Valley counties overwhelmingly supported the measure by 71%-29%, while the more populous Bay Area was strongly opposed (39%-61%).
However, the Southern California counties which comprise 55% of the total vote supported Prop 8 by 54% to 46%. In Los Angeles County, 69% voted for Barack Obama for President, but slightly less than 50% voted no on Proposition 8 – a gap of 19 percentage points (compared to a 13 point differential statewide).
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Summary Findings: Demographics
Resultsby
Subgroup
• Political ideology was the factor that corresponded most highly to the Proposition 8 vote, with 22% of liberals voting yes on 8, compared to 51% of moderates and 82% of conservatives.
• Election day exit polls that showed 70% of African American voters supporting Proposition 8 appear incorrect. Our survey shows 58% of Blacks voting for 8. Precincts in Southern California’s most concentrated areas of African American voters – Carson and Compton – show 65% support for Prop 8. Predominately African American precincts in other areas of LA County and in San Francisco showed support in the low-to-mid 50 percent range.
• The factor next most important in determining vote on Prop 8, after ideology, was religion, with voters who worship regularly being strongly more likely to support Prop 8, by a 70% to 30%, while those who worship less often voted 38% to 62% against Prop 8.
Blacks and Latinos who worship less than once a week opposed Prop 8.
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Summary Findings: Reasons for Vote and Influencers
Reasonsfor
Vote
• Supporters of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that marriage is between a man and a woman.
• Secondarily, Prop 8 supporters disclosed religious reasons as motive for their support.
• Opponents of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that same sex marriage was an issue of civil rights and equal rights, as well as their view that everyone should have the freedom to marry the person of their choosing.
• Most voters stated they were most influenced by discussions with friends, family and coworkers. This pool of voters opposed Proposition 8.
• About one-quarter said they had a strong personal opinion on the issue that was not swayed by other communications. This pool voted yes.
• About 8% said they were swayed by the church. This pool voted yes by 94% to 6%.
7
Influ-encers
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Summary Findings: Communications
TV ads• Among the yes on 8 ads, the message that stood out was that Prop 8
will cause the teaching of same sex marriage in schools.
• Among the no on 8 ads, most saw the ad featuring Senator Dianne Feinstein.
• The ads with Feinstein and Sam and Julia Thoron were statistically more likely to cause a no vote than were other ads. The History ad narrated by Samuel L. Jackson was also convincing.
• Vast majority of voters said mail and telephone calls were not influential.
• Only 5% visited official campaign websites, but those who visited the no on 8 website rated it more influential than visitors to the yes site.
• About 10% said they received information from a church, and 49% felt this information was convincing – a much higher proportion than other sources, such as labor unions, newspaper editorials and television ads.
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OtherCommu-nicationsources
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Summary Findings: Messaging
Messa-ging
• Only about 17% of yes on 8 voters could name something tangible that could cause them to change their mind and support same sex marriage, including:
• Call marriage by another name• Ensure that same sex marriage will not be taught in schools• Ensure that churches will not be forced to perform same sex
marriages• Approval, or lack of formal opposition, from churches or religious
leaders
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Election Results
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California Election ResultsNovember 4, 2008
President
Obama 8,274,473 61.1%
McCain 5,011,781 37.0%
Prop 8
No 6,401,482 47.7%
Yes 7,001,084 52.3%
Gap between Obama vote and No on 8 vote was 1.8 million, or 14%
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12
Prop 8 vs Obama
Prop 8 Map – 52% Yes vs 48% No Presidential Vote -- 61% Obama vs 37% McCain
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Other Southern California: Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Barbara, VenturaCentral Valley: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Stanislaus, TulareSacramento / Tahoe: Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, YoloBay Area: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, SF, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, SonomaCentral Coast: Monterey, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa CruzInland / Mountains / Other: Alpine, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, Del Norte, Glenn, Humboldt, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Sutter, Tehama, Trinity,. Tuolumne, Yuba
LA County had 19% difference between vote for Obama and vote against Prop 8
Region % Obama % No on 8 % Obama – Prop 8
LA County 69 50 19
San Diego County 54 46 8
Other Southern California 51 40 11
Central Valley 46 29 17
Sacramento / Tahoe Region 55 43 12
Bay Area 74 61 13
Central Coast 64 56 8
Inland / Mountains / Other 46 40 6
Total 61 48 13
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14
5
5
2
5
1
2
63
0
1
3
1
4
4
4
Prop 1A
Prop 2
Prop 3
Prop 4
Prop 5
Prop 6
Prop 7
Prop 8
Prop 9
Prop 10
Prop 11
Prop 12
All equally
None of them
Don't know
Which one of the 12 state propositions on the November 4 th ballot were you most interested in?
Prop 8 generated far more interest than any other state proposition
Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008
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15
74
18
5
3
0
59
22
10
7
2
Very Important
Somewhat Important
Not too important
Not at all important
Don't know
Yes Voters No Voters
The outcome of Prop 8 was more important to Yes voters than No voters
As you may know, Proposition 8 passed. How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 8?
% Very Important
• Evangelical Christians: 77% (vs all others: 61%)• Women: 69% (vs Men: 60%)• Latinos: 67%• Overall: 65%• Whites: 64%
Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008
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Vote by Subgroups
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54
49
0 50
Men
Women
Prop 8 by gender
% voting yes
17
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52
60
50
47
0 50
Men, not parents
Men, parents
Women, not parents
Women, parents
Prop 8 by gender and family status
% voting yes
18
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65
47
52
41
45
0 50
65+
50-64
40s
30s
Under 30
Prop 8 by age
% voting yes
19
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39
48
59
58
50
0 50
Other
Asian
Hispanic/Latino
Black
White
Prop 8 by ethnicity
% voting Yes
20
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81
52
30
0 50
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Prop 8 by party
% voting yes
21
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There is a direct correspondence between voters’ self-placement on an ideological scale and the percent supporting Proposition 8
21 22
32
53
7079
86
Very liberal Somewhatliberal
Moderate, leanliberal
Moderate Moderate, leanconservative
SomewhatConservative
Veryconservative
% voting yes
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29
49
17
66
55
0 50
No Religion
Other
Jewish*
Protestant
Catholic
Prop 8 by religion
% voting yes
23
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30
44
49
70
0 50
Hardly ever
Specialoccasions/holiday
Few times a month
Once a week or more
Prop 8 by frequency of worship
% voting yes
24
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40
50
57
56
0 50
Postgraduate study
College graduate
Some college orassociate degree
High school graduate
Prop 8 by education level
% voting Yes
25
Source: media exit poll
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86
30
0 50
John McCain
Barack Obama
Prop 8 by presidential vote
% voting Yes
26
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60
48
5
0 50
Do not know LGBT
Know LGBT
Are LGBT
Prop 8 by knowledge of LGBT people
% voting Yes
27
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Timing & Influences
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29
40
29
15
9
5
5
5
5
2
Believe marriage is between a man and woman
Religious reasons
Don’t believe in same sex marriage
Family reasons, should not be taught in school
Moral issues
Thought it was the right way to vote
Homosexuals can live in union; do not call it marriage
Already voted on, already have equal rights
No conviction; does not affect me
Q8 N=549
What are the reasons why you voted YES on Proposition 8?BASE: Those voting YES
Yes voters are driven by the belief thatmarriage is between a man and a woman
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30
40
26
18
11
6
Believe in: civil rights, equal rights, freedom tochoose whom to marry
Prop 8 discriminates, is unequal, wrong to denypeople their rights
Should not be on ballot, govt shouldn’t be allowedto decide who marries whom / unconstitutional /
takes away rights
Not my right to tell someone who they can orcannot marry
Know or is homosexual and/or wants chance tomarry partner
Q9 N=515
What are the reasons why you voted NO on Proposition 8? BASE: Those voting NO
No voters are driven by belief in equal rights andfreedom to choose whom to marry
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31
29
26
12
8
6
3
2
Discussion with friends,families and coworkers
Personal opinion
The information in theballot pamphlet
Religion/ Bible
Televisionadvertisements
Newspaper articles
Newspaper editorials
Q12 (N=1066)
Which of the following was the most influential to you when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8?
Majority of voters were most influenced by discussions with friends and family and their personal opinion, while 8% were most influenced by religion.
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32
45
53
43
94
58
31
47
Discussion with friends,families and coworkers
Personal opinion
The information in theballot pamphlet
Religion/ Bible
Televisionadvertisements
Newspaper articles
Newspaper editorials
Q12 (N=1066)
Which of the following was the most influential to you when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8?
Voters influenced by discussions more likely to vote no, voters influenced by the religion more likely to vote yes
% voting Yes
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Communications
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34
90
86
85
36
27
24
19
10
9
8
7
Television ads
Discussions with friends and family
Phone calls
Newspaper endorsements
Discussions with clergy, members
Ads in ethnic media
Church or synagogue
Labor union
Ads on web sites
Official web sites
Received information this way
Q28-34 (N=1066)
Ads, mail & discussions with friends and family had the greatest reach. Phone calls and newspaper endorsements also had strong reach.
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While about one-third of voters report receiving a phone call about Prop 8, 95% say it wasn’t effective
64
129
6 63
No calls 1 2 3 4 or 5 6 ormore
Number of phonecalls received
Q63 (N=1066)
3 2
95
More likely to voteyes
More likely to voteno
No influence
Influence ofphone calls
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Seeing gay couples being married on TV did not significantly affect the vote on Proposition 8
20
55
1411
Did Not See Saw, but made nodifference
Saw, made morelikely to vote YES on
8
Saw, made morelikely to vote NO on
8
Q63 (N=1066)
Have you ever seen same sex couples get married on the news or on television? (IF YES:) Did that make you more
likely to vote YES on 8, more likely to vote NO on 8, or did it make no difference to you?
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About 69% saw a Yes on 8 ad, but only 18% found them convincing
31
23
14 1517
Did notsee/not
sure
1 to 4 5 to 10 11 to 20 20 ormore
Number of yes on8 ads seen
Q63 (N=1066)
9 9 9
72
Veryconvincing
somewhatconvincing
not tooconvincing
not convincingat all
Convincingnessof TV ads
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38
18
5
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
52
Teaching same sex marriage in schools
Child with book about a king marrying aking (prince marrying prince, etc.)
Traditional marriage (man marryingwoman)
Mayor talking about same sex marriage/proposition 8
Children on field trip to gay wedding
Parents talking about homosexual son ordaughter
Commercial about kids (not specific)
Religious commercials about same sexmarriage
Discrimination commercial
Spanish commercial talking about samesex marriage
None
Q27 (N=549)
Can you describe for me one television ad for yes on 8 that you remember that was convincing?
The Yes on 8 ad most frequently recalled is aboutthe teaching of same sex marriage in schools.
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39
67
43
38
35
34
33
24
Dianne: Feinstein saying vote no on 8 to say no todiscrimination
History: Narrated by Samuel L Jackson with JapaneseInterment camps; saying vote No on 8 to oppose
discrimination
Thoron: Sam & Julia Thoron wanting same civil rights fortheir lesbian daughter as for their straight sons
Endorsements: No on 8 has been endorsed by majorpapers, unions, and corporations.
Wedding: Garden wedding, bride is blocked from gettingmarried with tag line “What if you couldn't marry the person
you love?”
Ellen: Ellen DeGeneres expressing support for the right tomarry the person she chooses
Families: non-gay family member talking about gay relativewho had gotten married; "As CA's gay couples marry, their
families grow stronger"
Q28-34 (N=1066)
No on 8 Ads Seen: Dianne seen by most
Percent recall seeing ad
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40
17
23
23
13
14
16
18
15
13
20
19
17
17
16
Dianne
History (SLJ)
Thoron
Endorsements
Garden wedding
Ellen
Families
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
Q28-34 (N=1066)
No on 8 Ads Seen: Among viewers, Thoron ad is more convincing
32
36
43
32
31
33
34
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41
46
47
42
48
50
52
46
Dianne: Feinstein saying vote no on 8 to say no todiscrimination
History: Narrated by Samuel L Jackson with JapaneseInterment camps; saying vote No on 8 to oppose
discrimination
Thoron: Sam & Julia Thoron wanting same civil rights fortheir lesbian daughter as for their straight sons
Endorsements: No on 8 has been endorsed by majorpapers, unions, and corporations.
Wedding: Garden wedding, bride is blocked from gettingmarried with tag line “What if you couldn't marry the person
you love?”
Ellen: Ellen DeGeneres expressing support for the right tomarry the person she chooses
Families: non-gay family member talking about gay relativewho had gotten married; "As CA's gay couples marry, their
families grow stronger"
% Yes on 8
Q28-34 (N=1066)
Voters who saw Dianne and Thoron are more likely to have voted no on Prop 8.
*Significant at the .001 level in
logistic regression analysis
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Takeaways
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43
58
49
37
29
19
5
32
17
29
36
37
19
46
41
45
Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage
Prop 8 was backed by the Mormon Church
Prop 8 would stop the teaching of same sex marriage tochildren in elementary school
Prop 8 would serve to rein in the activist judges on the CASupreme Court
Prop 8 would protect the tax-exempt status of churches
Agree Don't Know Disagree
Q49-58 (N=1066)
Majority of voters believed that Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage
All Voters
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44
52
51
50
46
45
10
5
6
6
36
37
44
45
49
18
Regardless of how you feel about marriage, it's wrong toeliminate the constitutional right of 'equal protection'
Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong
Prop 8 meant that CA law would allow discriminationagainst some groups & individuals
Prop 8 meant that CA laws would no longer treat everyoneequally & fairly
Prop 8 was opposed by the League of Women Voters &the CTA
Agree Don't Know Disagree
Q49-58 (N=1066)
Majority of voters agree that it is wrong to eliminate constitutional right of equal protection and that Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong
All Voters
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45
100
78
62
47
36
35
34
33
30
0
15
39
51
34
57
26
3426
25
29
Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong
Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage *
Prop 8 would stop the teaching of same sex marriage tochildren in elementary school *
Regardless of how you feel about marriage, it's wrong toeliminate the constitutional right of 'equal protection'
Prop 8 meant that CA law would allow discrimination againstsome groups & individuals
Prop 8 was backed by the Mormon Church
Prop 8 would serve to rein in the activist judges on the CASupreme Court
Prop 8 meant that CA laws would no longer treat everyoneequally & fairly
Prop 8 was opposed by the League of Women Voters & theCTA
Prop 8 would protect the tax-exempt status of churches
Q49-58 (N=95)
9% voted YES, but believe that Prop 8 is unfair, unnecessary, and wrong. Regression analysis indicates they were motivated by the belief that Prop 8 will preserve traditional marriage & stop
the teaching of same sex marriage in school.
Yes voters who believe Prop 8 is unfair, unnecessary, wrong
*Significant at the .0005 level in logistic regression analysis
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46
7
3
3
2
1
1
5
4
73
If same sex marriage is called somethingelse
Probably would not change
If church says same sex marriage is okay
If same sex marriage is not taught inschools
If no adverse affects on churches
If family rights to teach in home are notchanged
Miscellaneous
Don't Know
No / Nothing
Q64 N=549
Some people voted no on Proposition 8 because they believe it’s wrong to deny gay people the ability to get married. Is there anything that could change your mind and
lead you to support the freedom to marry for everyone some day? What?)
73% of yes voters say there is nothing that could change their mind.7% want same sex marriage to be called something else.