ProNet. Korsør 29. November 2011

New dynamic regional developmentSouth Scandinavia – North Germany

Christian Wichmann MatthiessenUniversity of Copenhagen

The knowledge economy• Knowledge and information: key inputs and -outputs• Information and knowledge: growth in speed of diffusion• The knowledge economy is a network economy• Cohesion: increasing importance• Entrepreneurship and innovation: rewarding• Critical mass important

Globalisation• Competition: on everything (almost)• Growth in cooperation and dependence• Price on transport: decreasing• Price on communication: decreasing dramatically• Price on face to face contact: relatively increasing• Localisation decisions: freedom of choice• Therefore: attractive environments – liveable cities

Growth factors

Engines of the economy: Metropolitan units• Economy of scale - diversity• Best equipped with the infrastructure of the knowledge society• Over average share of well educated persons• Good links to the global economy: airports, internet backbone structure• Home bases, clusters• Attractive and liveable cities (Richard Florida)

Challenges • Position on international ranking lists threatened• Revitalisation of the Danish-Swedish integration project• New cooperation in the Copenhagen/Malmö - Hamburg axis• Berlin, Warsaw• Copenhagen Airport• The European high speed railroad network• Sustainability (CO2)• The cluster concept: further opportunities

The black cloudGlobal crisesDenmark:

• Share of the international competitive part of the economy• Low growth in productivity• Entrepreneurship problems• GDP-growth 2010-2025: European bottom (OECD 2010)• The demographic problem• Youth unemployment

High speed railroads 2025

Source: International Union of Railways, 2010www.uic.org

The South Scandinavian Missing Links

Distance between Sealand and the Europeancontinent indicated as time

Source:The European

Round Table ofIndustrialists

1989

1997/1998

2000

2020

The South Scandinavian Links

Distance between Sealand and the Europeancontinent indicated as kilometres

Traffic crossing the lines

Great BeltÖresundFehmarnbelt

Traffic on ferriesand bridges

Vehicles !!

Vehicles per year

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Ferries and bridges

Oresund Great Belt Femern Belt

Great Belt (1997/1998)

Domestic air traffic reduced with 33 %Railroad traffic boostedDanish logistics changeDay-tourism: increaseFerry towns loose activity – but compensation

Crosspoint: enforcementCentrality: metropolitan competitionIntegration - economy of scale New mass = new specialisation

Öresund (2000)

A new metropolitan region:

Pre-bridge

Post-bridge

Fehmarnbelt

What we know!

Infrastructural investments• Fixed link. Price: 4,5 billion Euros• Direct + indirect jobs 30.000-60.000 man years• Denmark: railroad electrification and renewal (double track) Copenhagen to tunnel

Minus: Storstrømmen• Germany: Motorway from German network (Heiligenhafen West) to tunnel

Minus: Fehmarnsund• Railroad: Lübeck – Tunnel. Ready 2027

Minus : Fehmarnsund

Travel time• Copenhagen – Hamburg: from 4½ to 3 hours = 33 % improvement• Rødby – Puttgarten: from 60 to 10 minutes = 500 % improvement

Fehmarnbelt Link: Status 2011

Danish tunnel: expectations: Planned, financed, built and operated by Femern A/S (Sund & Bælt)• Economy• Planning• Aproval• Construction 2014-2020• Operation after 2020

Expected technicalities

• Immersed tunnel under seabed• Lenght: 17,6 km. • 79 elementer:

Lenght: 217 m.Width: 42 m.Hight: 9 m.Weight: 73.500 tons

Construction site: Rødby Havn

Population

Urban system

Cities within 300 kilometresDistance from Fehmarnbelt

• Infrastructure, logistics and traffic

• The role of the cities in a

global/regional perspective

• Cross border labour market

• Cross border mobility

• Business clusters

• The scientific world: Centres, networks, development opportunities

• The potential effects of the fixed link

on real estate prices

• The cultural sector

• Values and attitudes, knowledge about

”the other side”

Research project

Cross border labour market

Cross border labour marketIncentives for mobility come from differences across regions!

Barriers for mobility:• Geographical distance, land-sea border• Administrative barriers, recognition of degrees and qualifications• Language, cultural and mental differences• Lack of information

Advantage of labour market integration:• Easier handling of market fluctuations• Better matching of qualifications• Larger supply of labour force• More opportunities for the job-seekers• Knowledge transfer

Ways to remove barriers:• Solution strategies (rules harmonization)• Information and advice

Commuting across Fehmarnbelt 2020

Recommendations:Cross border interaction/mobility incentives • Promotion of language training• Lobby for recognition and approval of qualifications and certificates• Consulting activity upgrade. Example: Femarnbelt Büro. Model: Grænse-Grenze • The information challenge: Dramatic upgrade of activity.

Example: Femern Belt Direct• People to people programmes: schools, culture, partnerships • Organisation to organisation programmes: exchange, learning, mutual programmes• Barrier analysis (Syddansk Universitet, Universität Kiel 2006) to be

updated and renewed• INTERREG policy advancement• Establishment of political initiated structures: organising capacity• Toll on fixed link: Lobby for very low fees for frequent travelers• Cross-border cluster policy and engagement.

Model: Øresund Science Region

A ”real” border region = new economy of scale advantages!

Regions near Fehmarnbelt

Fehmarnbelt neighbouring regionsSummary: potential regional change post fixed link

Lolland-FalsterNorth-east Schleswig-Holstein

The Copenhagen-Hamburg corridor

Minus - lose employment when:• Ferries terminate

• Tunnelbuilding finishes

Plus:• Construction period employment

• Construction period: increasing interaction and cooperation• Real border region

• Potential mobilisation effects: demand for national active• Increase in real estate values

• TGV-train: dramatic increase in real estate values – hot spots• Increasing competitiveness in the CPH-HAM corridor

• Advantage for centres located in the corridor (lift in status) • New localization pattern: tourism, clusters

Corridor competitiveness boost

The large cities

• Economic power

• Center for:FinanceCulture, entertainmentServices, commerceKnowledgeCreativity

• NodeTransportCommunication

• Size, for example measured as:PopulationIncomeProductInteractionAccessibility

• Quality

Metropoles

Metropolitan functionsAfter: Bundesinstitut für Bau-, Stadt- und Raumforschung, 2011

Metropolitan Europe

Metropolitan Europe

Typology of metropolesEuropean Union ESPON documentationBBR 2006, Project 1.1-1

Copenhagen/Öresund-cityHamburg

LübeckKielRostock

New dynamics:• Crosspoint location enforcement• European high speed railroad system• International metropolitan competition• Metropolitan cooperation: Hamburg-Öresund City

clusters, research, culture

The large centresSummary: potential regional changePost fixed link

Infrastructure: Growth factors

• Accessibility• Cross point localisation• Centrality

HinterlandGeneral competition between cities and regions

• Synergy – advantage of scaleBorder crossing integrationAccessibility to specialisations on ”the other side”Utilisation of resources in one system

• New mass: further specialisation• Public relations• Optimism

Regional setupPre- and post fixed Fehmarnbelt link

Center PeripheryCenter

Border

Center - center interaction

Periphery

Center ”Real” border region Center

Border Center - center interaction

Strategic goal:• New North European powerhouse based on new infrastructure and new internal networks

Fehmarnbelt region survey1000 persons age 18-20 years

Topics covered:• Values and attitudes in general• Attitudes towards the labor market• The future society and politics• Environmental issues• Housing and culture• Interactions between the countries • Consequences of the fixed Fehmern Belt Link

Findings:

• No differences between the youths in the three countries with respect to:General values: post-materialistic value profilesAttitudes towards the labor market, housing, culture and politics

• The dividing line with respect to these issues runs between the sexes and not between countries

• Difference in the environmental perspective: Swedish youths are for market solutions

German youths would prefer laws and regulationsDanish youths mean that this issue is

characterized by unnecessary alarms

• Asymmetry in the knowledge of the respective neighbor countries:Danish and Swedish youth knows more about Germany

than the other way aroundGerman youth have some knowledge about CopenhagenSwedish youth have good knowledge about CopenhagenDanish and Swedish youth knows very little about Hamburg

Do you want to:Work Live Study

In Denmark?German youth Yes Yes YesSwedish youth Yes Yes Yes

In Germany?Danish youth Yes No NoSwedish youth Yes 50/50 50/50

In Sweden?Danish youth Yes No NoGerman youth Yes Yes Yes

Recommendations• Policy for updating the knowledge Danes, Germans and Swedes have about each other• Especially Danish and Swedish knowledge about Northern Germany

is low• Marketing activities must be set in motion!

General recommendation• Take action to achieve a bi-national institution with links to the large centres: university unit

Thankyou