project risk management and case study. eng.ahmed ibrahim

Project Risk ManagementAnd Case study.

Eng.Ahmed Ibrahim

AHMED IBRAHIM, MSc(student),BSc, PMP®, PMI- RMP®

Ahmed Ibrahim holds a Bachelor of Civil Engineering. Member and Certified by the project management institute – Pennsylvania - USA as:1 - Project manager professional (PMP ®) – 20112 - Risk Manager Professional (PMI-RMP ®) – 20133 - Master of projects management student., in addition to practical experience in the field of project management, executive management and human resources. He have projects management knowledge that always seek to develop, update, and share with others, especially the professionals in the field of project Management.

Other skills and interests. (PMP Certificate training, PMI-RMP Certificate training, planning and schedulingbyprimaveraP6.8.2training,Excelandreports&dashboardstraining)PMO (projects management office) creation and workflow process improvement.

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Project Management Over View


Project Start

Project finishCircumstances 1 Circumstances 2 Circumstances 3

Project Risk Management over view

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What is a risk? Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs,

has an effect on at least one project objective.

A risk may have one or more causes and, if it occurs, it may have one or more impacts.

Objectives can include scope, schedule, cost, and quality.

A cause may be a requirement, assumption, constraint, or condition

that creates the possibility of negative or positive outcomes.

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WHY IS RISK MANAGEMENT IMPORTANT?

For instance, but not limited to: Fewer sudden shocks and unwelcome surprises. More efficient use of resources. Better service ,product and result delivery. Reduction in management time spent (fire-fighting). Better management of project and maintenance activities. Lower cost of budget at completion. Improved innovation. Increased likelihood of change initiatives being achieved.


RISK COMPONENTS

• Risk – Events or consequences that have the probability of occurring during a project and that are measured by their impacts on the project.

• Components

‒ Risk event

‒ Risk event probability

‒ Risk outcome or consequence (Amount at stake)

‒ Risk event status (Probability x amount at stake)

RISK & PROJECT LIFE CYCLERisk varies over the life cycle

•Risk is high in the concept and development phases, decreasing as work is accomplished

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A risk statement could be: “We may have insufficient resources to conduct the beta

tests which would delay the project by one week ”.(can’t be 100% certainty)


RISK VS PROBLEM

A problem statement would be: “We have insufficient resources to conduct the beta tests which will delay the project by

one week”.(100% certainty)

1. Plan Risk Management

• Process of deciding how to approach and conduct (plan & execute) the risk management activities for a project.

2. Identify Risks

• Determine which threats/opportunities might affect the project & document their details

3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

• Assess each risk's chance of occurring & probable impact to get a prioritized list of risks requiring more analysis or action

4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

• Numerically analyze identified risks' effect on overall project objectives


RISK PROCESSES 1/2RISK PROCESS DEFINITIONS

5. Plan Risk Responses• Analyze risks and make a plan of actions & options to enhance opportunities & reduce

threats to project objectives

6. Control Risks• Track identified & residual risks, identify new risks, execute risk response plans & evaluate their

effectiveness

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RISK PROCESSES 2/2RISK PROCESS DEFINITIONS

Planning

• .1 Plan Risk Management• .2 Identify Risks• .3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis• .4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis• .5 Plan Risk Responses

Monitoring and controlling

•.6 Control Risks

Processes by process group


• Establish an agreed-upon approach for conducting risk management activities & evaluating risk

• Ensure that the level, type, and visibility of risk management are suitable with both risk and importance of the project to the organization• Provide sufficient resources and time for risk management activities

• Planning Risk management should be completed early during project planning, since it is critical to successfully performing the other processes

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1 .PLAN RISK MANAGEMENTHOW DO YOU PLAN FOR RISK?


Risk Management Plan

• Identify Risks determines which risks might affect the project & documents their characteristics• Participants in identify risk activities can include the following, where

appropriate: project manager, project team members, risk management team (if assigned), risk experts from outside, customers or end-users, stakeholders, etc.• All project personnel should be encouraged to identify risks.• Identify risks - is an iterative process because:

– Risk events may happen, which may cause new risks–Status of identified risks may change.–New risks may occur.

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IDENTIFY RISKSWHAT HAPPENS IN IDENTIFY RISKS?


QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

HOW DO YOU PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS?

• Prioritize identified risks for further action, such as Quantitative Risk Analysis or Risk Response Planning.

• Organizations can improve the project’s performance effectively by focusing on high-priority risks .

• Assess the priority of identified risks using their probability of occurring, the corresponding impact on project objectives if the risks occur.

• Also use factors such as time frame & risk tolerance of the project constraints of cost, schedule, scope & quality


•Analyze priority risks (identified in Qualitative Risk Analysis)•Analyzes the effect of those risk events and assigns a numerical(quantitative) rating to those risks.• It also presents a quantitative approach to making decisions in the presence of uncertainty.•The process uses techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation & decision treeanalysis to:‒ Quantify possible outcomes for the project and their probabilities‒ Assess probability of achieving specific project objectives‒ Identify risks requiring the most attention‒ Identify cost, schedule & scope targets in the light of risk‒ Make best decisions when conditions or outcomes are uncertain• Experienced risk managers sometime perform it directly after Identify Risk .

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PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS


PLAN RISK RESPONSES

•Develop options & determine actions to enhance opportunities and reduce threats• Risk responses must be:oAppropriate to the significance of the riskoCost effectiveoTimelyoRealisticoWithin the project contextoAgreed upon by all parties involvedoOwned by a responsible person


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1. Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats

Avoid Mitigate AcceptTransfer

PLAN RISK RESPONSES


2. Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities

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EFFECT EFFECT

Exploit Share Enhance Ignore/ Accept


• Identify, analyze & plan for new or changed risks• keep track of the identified risks and those on the watch list• reanalyze existing risks•Monitor trigger conditions for contingency plan•Monitor residual & secondary risks• Review the execution of risk responses while evaluating their

effectiveness.•Monitor & Control Risk process applies techniques, such as variance and

trend analysis, which require the use of performance data generated during project execution

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CONTROL RISKWHAT HAPPENS IN MONITOR AND CONTROL RISK?


Some of Project Properties.• Location on KSA-Yanbu (Royal commission zone)• Project consisted of 7 housing buildings 6 floors each.• Area of the project was 25000 M2• Project final budget was 56 000 000 SAR.• Project start date was 19 April 2010. • Project planned end date was 18 April 2012.• Project actual finish date was 5 Jun 2012.• Project end slippage (delay) 48 days. • Project owner management staff members was 16.• Project contractor management staff was 22

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Our case study


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REFERENCES..

Lecture ReferencesProject Management Body Of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) 5th editionThe Standard for Portfolio Management (PMI)Practice Standard For Project Risk ManagementQ & As for The PMBOK® Guide Fourth EditionO’Reilly Media, Inc., Head First PMP, Jennifer Greene, PMP & Andrew Stellman, PMP.Rita Mulcahy, PMP, M.B.A, PMP® Exam Prep, 8th Edition

,http://www.rmcproject.com/about/rita.aspx http:// www.pmi.org http:// WWW.PROFESSIONALENGINEERS.US http:// www.method123.com

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Thank you too much for spending your time and effort for earn more knowledge

Ahmed Ibrahimhttp://www.linkedin.com/in/ahmed13

[email protected]

project risk management and case study. eng.ahmed ibrahim

Documents

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field of project management

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risk statement

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project objective