Project Outline – The long-term challenge for developing countries of transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy and society: Improving the Evidence Base with New & Improved Tools & Thinking

November 2014Out-the-Box (OTB) Lab II, Cape TownAdrian StoneEnergy Research Centre, University of Cape Townin Collaboration with UNU-WIDER

Research QuestionWhat research and process tools are most helpful to enable MAPS countries to think ‘out-of-the-box’ considering the long-term challenge from a developing country perspective: a transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy and society? This should include both hard and soft approaches as appropriate.

Implicit on above question, how do we integrate development into the analysis? In other words, this work should contribute to the building a modelling framework for development paths that reduce poverty and emissions. It should also contribute to the better understanding of the economy-wide impacts of mitigation actions across all sectors and (not just in the power sector as is being investigated now in South Africa), taking into account interactions between sectors.

The Project - 4 Pillars have Emerged

In the Context of the Problem it’s a humble but hopefully useful goal…

Outputs-OTB Lab I & II Dossiers

-Literature review of modeling approaches by Tanya (end 2014)

-Discussion paper: Exploring methods for assessing uncertainty in the long term climate mitigation planning (first draft by Q4 2014; final draft by end Jan 2015); authors: Bruno, Tara; reviewers: Adrian, Marta

-MAPS Brief: Exploration of non-conventional tools (by Q3 2015); author: Tanya, Adrian, Bruno; reviewers: tbc

-Linked models: Methodology Report (model documentation)

-Linked models: Case Study Paper (results discussion)

-OTB brief, by Stef, Marta; reviewers: Adrian, Harald

What is the real contribution of models?Provide an Informed Basis for Debate

Distinguish between Large and Small Effects

Prioritise Options

Dispel Myths

Unpack Complexity

Quantify Uncertainty

Test & Compete Strategies and Ideas

Systematically Hedge Against Risks

Even a poor plan can get the ball rolling on a problem that will ultimately be resolved by a trial and error evolutionary process.

Some problems are more tractable to numerical solution – cost benefit analyses especially – buying a machine, trading off inputs, planning logistics

The Dilemma of the ‘Wrongness’ of Long Term Planning

The minefield principle: Look, measure, proceed; Look, measure, proceed; Look, measure, proceed; Look, measure, proceed……………