Progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

September 2012

The MDGs

• 1. To eradicate extreme poverty and hunger• 2. To achieve universal primary education• 3. To promote gender equality and empower women• 4. To reduce child mortality• 5. To improve maternal health• 6. To combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases• 7. To ensure environmental sustainability• 8. To develop a global partnership for development

Evaluation system

• StatsSA provides official review• Reports published for 2005 and 2010• Aim of that process also to identify concerns and

find solutions, so broadly consultative – not just technical

• Data are contested and somewhat inconsistent• Here only provide some updates on core

outcomes from 2010, where data permits – with focus on goals that relate directly to the economy

Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger• Core indicator: share of population living on less than

USD1/day per person (household income of around R1000 a month in 2011)

• StatsSA report uses Income and Expenditure data – latest is 2005/6, using PPP US dollars

• Not entirely comparable to annual data from General Household Survey– started in 2002 – only has household income estimates from 2009 to 2011– has other relevant data (expenditure categories and hunger)

Trends from GHS• Decline in hunger correlates with economic

boom and extension of child support grant• Downturn worsened poverty but now

recovering

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

2009 2010 2011

Share living below USD1/day

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009 -n.a.

2010

2011

Insufficient food for adults at least sometimes

Universal primary education

• Significant increase in age 5 to 14 in school, but less progress on secondary – which is crucial for employment

• Improvements particularly for women

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Percentage of age group in school5 to 9 10 to 14

Gender equality and women empowerment

• 35% of women have paid employment, compared to 47% of men

• Women constitute 43% of all employed people

• Their share in formal employment climbed from 39% in 2008 to 41% in 2012

• Mostly because job creation after the downturn occurred almost exclusively in the public sector

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

71% 16% 5% 9% 100%

formal ex agriculture

Informal ex agriculture

Agriculture Private households

Total

Share of women in employment by sector (figures below axis indicate share of sector in

total employment)2008 2012

Reduce child mortality

• Substantial improvement since 2004

• Largely due to improved treatment for HIV

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mortality rate for children under 5

Source: World Bank/UN

Improve maternal health• Target for maternal mortality is 38 for 2015• But data for South Africa seem very inadequate

– UN estimate for 2008 was around 410 per 100 000– StatsSA data based on CS for 2007 was 625

• Both are very high by global standards• Again, main challenge is HIV/AIDS• But do not have a series to see impact of

improved treatment

HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria• Do not have more recent data than

StatsSA report

• Substantial progress due to improved treatment strategy

• But had high infection rate for HIV/AIDS by international standards at start of period

Environmental sustainability

• Multi-dimensional challenge – focus here on emissions

• Data are contested• Substantial improvement in

renewable energy generation – but– Most electricity still coal fuelled– Economy remains energy

intensive

• Rising electricity prices likely to bring profound changes in the economy – how to manage the transition?

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

CO2 emissions per capita in metric tonnes

Middle income South Africa

A global partnership for development• UN focus is primarily on aid to developing

economies• For South Africa, critical issue is probably how to

support regional development• Current initiatives focus on infrastructure –

logistics, electricity and water– National Infrastructure Plan to provide framework

– DFIs and Eskom have major regional investments (IDC valued at R12 bn, of which about a third in Mozal)

– DIRCO working on stronger development agency

Summary

• Efforts to meet economic elements of the MDG set back by economic downturn

• Key challenges:– Measures to support equity and address

poverty in line with the New Growth Path– The environmental issues– Improve monitoring and reporting