progress in large-shared projects
TRANSCRIPT
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Progress in Large-Shared projects:Method for forecasting and optimizing
project duration in a distributed project
Rameez KHALID,
Alain HAIT,
Philippe DUQUENNELGC - PSI - Dpartement , INPT-ENSIACET, 118 route deNarbonne, 31077 Toulouse cedex 4, France
Plan
Introduction
Literature Overview
Problem Statement
Simulation
Results
Conclusion
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Introduction Large-Shared projects:
Large in respect of: No. of decisions to make, tasks, participants,
significant cost, information size, and substantial risks;
Shared such that: they depend on more than one entity for their
completion and the project (or major parts of it) can be
indifferently distributed to one or another resource.
Transferable Work-load Project:
a project in which work is transferable from one resource to
another even if job processing has started
OBJECTIVE: optimization of project duration with the help ofprogress measurement and redistribution of remaining work.
Literature Overview The references of Project management such as IPMA, PMI and
AFITEP are general.
Every project is unique at some level, which requires specific
methods for its problems.
Every process of the project life-cycle requires proper attention
in managing large-shared or transferable work-load projects.
PROJECT PLANNING
It is an iterative process of developing a preordained plan in aforecasted environment.
Planning can be strategic, tactical and operational.
Planning requires: SOW, specifications, WBS, networks and
schedules.
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Literature Overview MONITORING AND CONTROL
Earned Value Management (EVM): Schedule Variance (SV=EV-PV) and Cost Variance (CV=EV-AV).
Progress Plot [12] : Time on horizontal axis & progress on vertical axis with control lines.
Milestone and Resource slip charts [13] : Uses a No. of review stages at which re-estimations can be done.
Performance indicators: Model for performance evaluation of R&D projects proposed [14].
PMS created for improving supply chain process of Nike in [15].
FORECASTING
It is a process of previewing what will happen by certain time. For predicting the future precisely, accurate knowledge of system andits environment is indispensable.
EVM is an early warning system which alerts during progress.
Problem Statement Problem is related to the Pharmaceutical industry.
Determination of the effectiveness of a treatment.
Patients will be divided among a No. of countries, considering
their population, capacity & competence.
Two stages:Recruitmentand Treatmentof patients.
Three phases of treatment: each phase is of a duration, acertain part of treatment and a different defined cost.
2nd
pa ym en t
Tim e
1 2 3
Treat me nt Phases
1st
p a ym en t
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Problem Statement
Scheduled budget is calculated on the basis of recruitment
planning.
Countries will be paid at every update depending upon the
treatment phase completed by each patient.
As planning ends, actual recruitment data is generated.
OBJECTIVE: to analyze how the system responds in different
situations and thus optimizing project duration.
PLANNING AND BUDGETING Three periods in the execution of a project in S-Curves, namely: learning,
working and ending periods.
Parkinsons Law i.e. Work expands to fi ll the time available.
The point where the learning period ends and the working period start is
known as Point of Inflexion (POI).
Variables:
POI as a pre-specified no. of
patients or duration
The recruitment rate (d)
A number of patients will be
lost or will leave the system
before the treatment ends.
WorkingLearning
Problem Statement
Ending
Time
No. ofPatients
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Problem Statement MONITORING AND CONTROL
Actual recruitment data are produced depending upon the performance (P). Two approaches to this problem, namely: w i t h and w i t h o u t - r e a l l o ca t i o n . Linear programming is used for the reallocation with minimizing the total re-
estimated duration as objective. For the determination ofWhen the real POI wil l occur in time?along with the
rate of recruitment in the working period, a L i n e a r H y p o t h e s i s is used.
where, Schedule Performance Index = IS Planned learning period ends = I Real learning period ends = IR Recruitment Rate for
previewed learning period = d1
Recruitment Rate for thereal learning period = dR1
Time t Tf
Country 1
Country 2
Tf1
N1
N2N2
Re-Planned
N1
t Tf2
Numb
erofPatientsN
N1+N2 = N1+N2
2
2
1
1
d
d
d
d
I
II
RRR
s
Simulation PROGRAM
Program is buil t in Microsoft Excel
with programming in Visual Basic.
If the file of pharmaceutical problem
is opened, F o r m 1 will be shown.
The button Solve if pressed will
generate scheduled budget and
then F o rm 2 will come up.
The button Generate Real Data
will generate real recruitment data.
The frame Point of inflexion:
Achievedprovides a No. of
options to continue this real data
generation till the next update.
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Results ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
The simplest option available for each variable was chosen.
This problem, involving numerous variables, offers interestinginsight for managing transferable work-load projects.
No. of instances are created by changing the values of variables.
For every situation first results are gathered for without-reallocation and then with-reallocation.
W i t h - r e a l l o c a t i o n is the champion approach for optimizingproject duration in transferable workload or shared environment.
Performanceentered for
Without-Reallocation
With-Reallocation
Country 1 & 3 Duration Duration
PlannedDuration
90% & 75% 730 days 669 days
Country 2, 4 & 5 Duration Duration
110, 120 & 70% 1551 days 539 days
547 days
Results ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
We are also interested in finding out When to use reallocation?.
Reallocation is applied on the 1st update after POI and resultswere noted then on the 2nd update and so on.
Transfer costs are also added for the transferred patients.
Cost gets closer to 100% i.e. planned cost as we applyreallocation in later updates.
Duration also gets close to what was planned.
100.2
100.4
100.6
100.8
101
101.2
101.4
101.6
101.8
102
550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900
Actual Duration
%o
fBudgetedCost
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Results & Extension ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
Objective is to study how the system responds in different
situations and thus optimizing project duration.
With-reallocation is an effective approach.
Reallocation used when 2/3 of the project duration passed will
produce better compromise between duration and cost.
EXTENSION
Several avenues as an extension to this problem: a penalty for late project completion;
cost of adding a new country; transfer costs for transferring patients to another or a new country;
these costs can be fixed or with a different cost coefficient
Conclusion Not much attention has been given to the part of planning
for transferable work-load projects, in literature.
For better controlling and monitoring a projects progress,
techniques are still required that expose our planning flaws.
Lessons learned may not be generalized but may be helpful
in the realization of similar goals.
Generalized propositions for further study may be:
improving risk management techniques and their applications
describing project specific management methods.
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Acknowledgment
Thank youfor your attention Questions
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