programmatic trading study - deloitte advertising spend of 182m€ in 2015 and 236m€ in 2016....

IAB programmatic study The Netherlands 2014 1

Programmatic TradingThe Netherlands 2014

March 2015


Participating companiesThe following companies participated to the 2014 programmatic study:


Introduction and summary


Introduction

Worldwide the Netherlands is one of the most developed countries in which advertising is traded via automated channels. The shift from traditional/manual trading to programmatic brings new business opportunities and the need for adjusted strategies. For this rapidly changing market Deloitte, commissioned by IAB taskforce Programmatic Trading, has researched the latest trends in the programmatic ecosystem. The first study, launched last year, was highly anticipated and positively received in the market, due to great participation of industry players. Now IAB & Deloitte are proud to presents it’s second Programmatic Trading study for 2014.

With input from Publishers, Trading Desks, Ad Networks, Platform Solutions, Data Providers and Agencies, this study will focus on the latest programmatic trends within the Dutch online advertising ecosystem.

Kick ZandbergenIAB Netherlands | Chairman Taskforce Programmatic“The IAB NL Taskforce Programmatic sets out to help ensure programmatic trading creates value for the entire marketplace. The taskforce develops a programmatic agenda focused on building market clarity and education in the programmatic landscape, and works resolving operational challenges in the ecosystem. We do this by a range of activities. Facilitating research like the report you are about to read now is fundamental to fulfilling our mission. I‘m very proud to present you with the second annual report on Programmatic Trading in the Netherlands.“

Govaert Plesman IAB Netherlands | MD“In 2014, programmatic trading showed another significant increase in demand, supply and logically ad spend. An interesting trend is that bigger formats, video and other screens are increasingly more accessible via programmatic. Advertisers are embracing it and taking control, looking for transparency and optimal ROI. You can expect to see a lot of innovative insights and education regarding programmatic from IAB Netherlands, the branche organisation for digital marketing with a focus on programmatic. “

Nathalie La VergeDeloitte Digital | Manager“In 2014, programmatic trading was embraced widely in the Netherlands. We saw new players entering the programmatic landscape, the first programmatic deals in other mediumtypes like digital radio and digital outdoor, existing players broadening their programmatic portfolio and advertisers starting to trade themselves. With the focus on quality and datamanagement in the coming years, programmatic marketing has a bright future ahead.”


Methodology

Deloitte collects data covering the majority of the market

Missing participants’ data is estimated based on previous figures, desk research, expert opinions, industry databases, extrapolation and modelling

Initial findings are verified with industry experts, media buyers and selected publishers

Findings are cross-referenced and validated with respondents

Final findings presented to the IAB and industry participants.

Survey methodology· Our current report is

based on 21 participating companies

· Figures are adjusted for double counting, based on information provided by the survey participants

· Thefiguresaredrawnuponthe basis of company input andhavenotbeenverifiedby Deloitte

· Only aggregated results are published, individual company information is held instrictconfidencewithDeloitte

Collection

Estimation

Conversation

Validation

Publication


Executive summary143,5m€ of display revenue is

traded by programmatic channels in 2014, realizing an exceptional +38,9% revenue growth.

For the next year we estimate a growth in programmatic of +28% in 2015 and +30% in 2016. Resulting in an estimated programmatic traded display advertising spend of 182m€ in 2015 and 236m€ in 2016.

Online video advertising and Interruptive/ rich media formats show the highest market share

increase in programmatic.

Both prices and volumes of programmatic sold inventory showed an increase in 2014. Volumes increased with +29%, whilst prices increased with +8%.

The share of revenue of open auction (RTB) increases as exchange model, whereas the market

shareofprogrammaticfixedpricingdeclines.


Results 2014


Programmatic trading 2012-2014Programmatic traded display advertising realized a revenue growth of almost 39% in 2014

Note Adjustment in 2012 and 2013 data (2012 H1 -1m€, 2013 H1 +1m€) due to revised and additional respondent data;

Source: Survey respondents, Deloitte analysis

Similargrowthfiguresasin2013areshownin2014.Theincreaseofprogrammaticrevenue is mainly due to more inventory made available by existing publishers. On the other hand we also see new publishers entering the programmatic landscape.

Most of the programmatic revenue and growth is realized during the second half of theyear,especiallyinQ4,whenthedemandincreasessignificantly,upliftingpricesand corresponding earnings in the marketplace.

“I am proud to see that the Netherlands is showing the highest adoption of programmatic advertising in Europe and that programmatic is seen as an essential part of a marketing strategy.”

Nathalie Peters IAB Netherlands | President

“As programmatic grows in market share and includes more ‘premium’ spend, the line between ‘programmatic’ and ‘direct’ sales begins to fade. This drives changes to staffing, process, and – most significantly – technology needs of media companies. Legacy ad servers fall short, and new solutions are required to deliver truly holistic yield optimisation.”

Angela PellaupessyImprove Digital | Country Manager Benelux

H1 33,1

H1 42,7

H1 56,7

H2 42,3

H2 60,7

H2 86,8

75.4

103.3

143,5

2012 2013 2014

+37,1%

+38,9%

+43,3%

+43,1%

+29,1% +32,8%

Display advertising revenue by programmatic trading (m€)


Programmatic trading per monthThe highly volatile monthly Y/Y growth rates of programmatic trading shows signs of stabilization during the second half of 2014


Y/Y growth (%) Display advertising revenue by programmatic trading (m )

5.8 4.9 4.6 5.3 5.9 6.5 5.8 5.2 6.2 7.0 8.1 10.1

7.2 5.7 6.5 6.9 8.3 8.1 8.0 7.9 8.6 10.7 11.2

14.3

9.0 8.0 9.2 9.5 10.0 10.9 11.0 10.5 11.6 15.2 16.2

22.3 23%

17%

40%

30%

40%

25%

37%

53%

39%

52%

38%

42%

26%

41% 42%

37%

21%

34%

39%

33% 35%

42% 44%

56%

0%

20%

40%

60%

0

10

20

30

2012 2013 2014

Jan

Feb Mar AprMay Ju

n Jul

Aug Sep OctNov DecJa

nFeb Mar Apr

May Jun Ju

lAug Sep Oct

Nov Dec Jan

Feb Mar AprMay Ju

n Jul

Aug Sep OctNov Dec


In 2013, the average growth in prices of programmaticly traded inventory increased more than the volumes, while in 2014 this trend is reversed, duetotheinfluxofmoreinventoryattheexchanges.However,mostlydue to the introduction of more expensive display formats into the programmatic marketplace we do see an increase in the average of absolute prices. The price of traditional embedded formats such as banners, buttons and skyscrapers shows a marginal decrease, an indication that supply and demand are slightly unbalanced for this format in 2014.

“2015 will see an even bigger growth in volume. Increased programmatic spend on rich media combined with guaranteed deals will make this happen. As display buying becomes easier for smaller companies as well, we will see those smaller agencies and also direct advertisers having impact on spend volume.”

Bas SeelenAdform | VP Benelux

Programmatic traded volume & eCPM 2012-2014Volumes and average eCPM prices have increased in the programmatic marketplace during 2014.

*eCPM(effectivecostperthousandimpressions)=1000xTotalspend/TotalvolumeofImpressions;

Note: Adjustment in 2012 and 2013 volumes due to revised and additional respondent data;


147 164 212

2012 2013 2014

0.51 0.63 0.68

2012 2013 2014

Programmatic volume (Billion impressions) Average eCPM* (€)

+12%

+29% +8%

+23%


Programmatic traded volume & eCPM per monthIn February and August eCPM prices fall, whilst the last months of the year prices eCPM skyrocket


Average eCPM ( ) Impressions (billions)

11 11 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 12 13 12 14 13 13 14 13 15 15 14 16 14 14 15 17 17 19 21 20 19 19 20

0.54

0.44 0.45 0.48 0.51 0.51

0.46 0.41

0.49 0.53

0.58

0.48 0.46 0.51

0.56 0.61 0.62 0.62

0.56

0.65 0.69

0.74

0.57 0.64 0.62 0.60

0.65

0.57 0.50

0.57

0.78 0.84

1.13

-

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014

Jan

Feb Mar AprMay Ju

n Jul

Aug Sep OctNov DecJa

nFeb Mar Apr

May Jun Ju

lAug Sep Oct

Nov Dec Jan

Feb Mar AprMay Ju

n Jul

Aug Sep OctNov Dec

0.74

1.04

0.58


The last two years, online video and interruptive were introduced into the programmatic market. Video and Interruptive realized astronomical growth rates (from a low base), and continued to grow further, doubling the revenues in 2014. We expect this trend to continue with similar pace next year until it reaches the same mix as seen when including traditional display advertising (14% and 15% market share for interruptive and video respectively).

“Times are changing, with RTB offering great brand building opportunities. Marketers understand the power of programmatic and are pioneering with new ad formats for branding like rich media and video. Nothing connects more like Rich Media and Video ads and at the same time it safeguards high viewability ratios. With increased premium inventory available we expect 2015 to be the year programmatic brand campaigns really take off.”

Eric VisserJustpremium | Managing Director EMEA

Programmatic traded formatsOnline video advertising and Interruptive formats shows the highest increase in programmatic market share, whilst the share of text links and embedded formats declines.

Note;Figurebasedonrespondentdataonly;Adjustmentin2012and2013figuresduetorevisedand/oradditionalrespondentdata;


86% 86% 84% 82% 82% 80%

3% 4% 6% 8% 9% 10%

1% 1%

10% 9% 8% 7% 5% 4%

1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 5%

H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2

2012 2013 2014

Share of revenue per programmatic display format Revenue Growth Y/Y

2013 2014

Video +255% +126%

Text links +8% -18%

Other (incl. Native)

Interruptive/ rich media +176% +86%

Embedded +32% +35%


During 2013 the yearly average prices for embedded formats did not changeinrespectto2012withaneCMPof0,61€effectively.In2014theyearly average prices for embedded display formats declined with -5%, to 0,58 € eCPM. We expect that the prices in 2015 will stabilize or slightly growbasedonthepositivepricedevelopmentthattookoffduringthelast months of 2014 and the focus on qualitative requirements (e.g viewability).

“We saw strong programmatic inventory uptake on smartphone which probably drove the overall YoY eCPM decline, however concealing three patterns. 1) overall desktop CPM growth, 2) Q4 Smartphone CPM growth, driven by strong demand and 3) the recurring December ‘bidding squeeze’, due to EOY budgets. For 2015 I expect adblocker adoption and low CPM growth, but increase in proper analytics for quality, B2B inventory and of course native and video ads on all devices. Bring it on!”

Bert Jan ten KateMassarius| Founder

Price development programmatic traded embedded formatsThe average prices for embedded formats have declined during Q2 and Q3, whilst Q4 prices increase yearly.

Note; Figure based on respondent data only;


Average eCPM prices per quarter for embedded formats (€)

0.58 0.62 0.60 0.61

0.53

0.63 0.62 0.66

0.55 0.56 0.50

0.70

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2012 2013 2014


“With the continuous growth of online video, qualitative requirements such as transparency and brand safety are increasingly important.”

Elwin GastelaarsSpotXchange | MD Benelux & Nordics

Prices programmatic traded formatsAverage eCPM prices for Video and Interruptive fluctuate between 6 and 9 €.

Note; Figure based on respondent data only;


Average eCPM prices per display format (€)

Embedded Video Interruptive / rich media

0.6 0.6

5.6

7.0

8.3 8.8

H1 H2

2014


“In 2014 we achieved our goal of making all relevant products available through every sales channel we offer mainly by adding products to our programmatic channel. In 2015 we are no longer viewing programmatic as a separate part of our business but view it for what it actually is; one of the distribution channels that can be used to advertise on our network. Yield management across all our sales channels and helping advertiser & agencies buy in the best way possible to fit their needs will define our business in 2015 and help us increase value in both the programmatic and direct sales channels for ourselves and our partners.” Sophie CroonenSanoma | Manager Product & Development

Programmatic exchange platformsOpen auction (RTB) increases its share as most used programmatic trading exchange model.



Share of revenue per exchange model

70% 78% 76% 78% 77% 79%

12%

10% 11% 11% 12% 12%

18% 12% 13% 11% 11% 9%

H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2

2012 2013 2014

Fixed pricing

Private auction (RTB)

Open auction (RTB)

5% Reserved inventory

95% Unreserved inventory 2014:


On average, all the exchange models demonstrated a major price increase, however the price increase in private exchanges is most remarkable. We noticed two trends regarding the private exchange:

1. After 2013 publishers increase the amount of high impact inventory (more expensive) on the programmatic exchanges. Due to various reasons, this content is generally made available only in the private auction; one of these reasons is to reward recurring/preferred buyers, giving them access to premium inventory.

2. As the high impact formats shift towards the private marketplace the general available simple banners, buttons and skyscrapers (embedded formats)showanoppositeshiftfindingtheirwaytowardstheopenexchange. As programmatic becomes more mature, publishers can let go of their control and enhance the revenues on the open auction where the prices are higher due to increased competition and data enriched impressions.

Overall this result in less but higher priced inventory in the private exchanges, thus consolidating the revenue share within programmatic (12%).

Price development programmatic exchange platformsThe prices in private exchanges have increased significantly since 2013.



0.43 0.46 0.41 0.52

0.39

0.62 0.58 0.64

0.58 0.67 0.64

0.77

0.43 0.45 0.57

0.89 1.01

1.51

H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2

2012 2013 2014

Average eCPM prices per exchange model (€)

Open auction Private auction Fixed pricing


Due to technical challenges and high threshold for advertisers to step into programmatic in-app advertising, the development of in-app advertising spend within the programmatic market has unexpectedly slowed down during 2014, whereas the monetization of mobile advertising on phone/tablet in general continues in the programmatic marketplace.

“In-app advertising offers tremendous opportunities for marketeers as consumers spend the bulk of their time on mobile in various apps. Therefore it is amazing to see that in-app advertising has failed to keep up with the general growth of mobile advertising. With the expected focus on datamanagement in the coming years, I expect a huge growth in in-app programmatic ad spend, because data is vital in running succesful mobile programmatic advertising campaigns”

Diederick UbelsMobile Professionals | General Manager

Programmatic mediaThe market share of programmatic traded phone/tablet advertising expands rapidly in 2014.

Note; Figure based on respondent data only; Analysis is based on a limited number of data points


34%

12% 7%

63%

76%

67%

5%

6%

2%

7%

20%

2012 2013 2014

Share of revenue (including unknown / undisclosed devices)

Device unknown / Undisclosed

Desktop

In-app

Phone/Tablet

1%


All programmatic buyers indicate that more branding campaigns are traded programmatically in 2014. However, due to a lack of communication between buyers and sellers about the marketing objective, sellers indicate that, in many cases, they are not aware about the campaign objectives of programmatically bought inventory.

“Thanks to advancements in inventory quality and programmatic technology we run highly relevant and measurable brand campaigns at scale.”

Gerard MoussaultCadreon | Managing Director

“There’s a shift in demand towards more premium programmatic possibilities where data and technology are key drivers.Branding and performance (premium or programmatic) used to be separated campaigns with separated strategies. Today, we focus on campaigns with multiple touchpoints and multiple communications optimized towards one unique profile, where true storytelling becomes a fact.”

DennisStoffelsDe Persgroep | Demand Manager Programmatic

Performance vs BrandingProgrammatic buyers indicate that programmatic is used more extensively during branding campaigns.

Note;Figurebasedonrespondentdataonly;Analysisisbasedonalimitednumberofdatapoints;Adjustmentin2012and2013figuresduetorevisedand/or

additional respondent data;


4%

96%

13%

87%

25%

75%

85%

15%

1%

65%

34%

3%

56%

41%

2012 2013 2014

Buyers

Campaign marketing objective

Sellers

Branding Performance Campaign objective unknown


One of the biggest challenges is the need for more transparency in the programmatic market. Undisclosed URL information appears to be almost non-existent as of 2014 in the Dutch programmatic marketplace. For most traded impressions (98%) at least the publisher name is known. Disclosing full information can still be challenging from a technical perspective, since publisher information can be unintentionally being masked before it reaches the advertiser due to lack of platform support.

In 2014 viewability and the reduction of fraudulent inventory were important topics in the transparency discussion. With the exchange of incorrect ad position information being passed through the programmatic exchanges, blacklists of rogue websites are frequently used. In 2015 we expect to see quality/viewability requirements and controls as one of the most important topics on the programmatic agenda.

TransparencyAt the majority of programmatic traded impressions the URL is masked on top level domain.

Note; Figure based on respondent data only; Analysis is based on a limited number of data points;


15% 11%

69% 73% 76%

16% 16% 22%

2012 2013 2014

Blind

Publisher / Top level domain

Full URL / Section Targeting

Share of revenue URL information

2%


The usage of data in the programmatic landscape increases by time. However still a major part of the sold impressions are not enriched by any form of data, as part of the advertisers do not yet employ fully datadrivencapabilitieswhilespecificindustriesarenotallowed(byprivacy law) to store and use data for targeting purposes. Publishers on the other hand are focused on delivering more information with their inventory, as second party data, to add more value, thus increasing their inventory prices. We expect that in the next years the availability of data/informationintheprogrammaticmarketplacewillincreasesignificantlyfrom both the advertisers and publishers side, where the latter will be mosteagerintryingtoacquirenewandrelevantdatasourcestooffer.

“We see increasing interest from publishers to commercialize their data”

Eelco BoersMark & Mini | Managing Director

“We see publishers offering more and more data enriched impressions and buyers becoming more professional in their datamanagement. This results in an increasing trend of adding first and second party data to programmatic trading, making different sorts of data more actionable in the programmatic process.”

Boudewijn van EwijkMediascience | Co-founder

Data enrichmentPublishers include more branded data to programmatic impressions to add value

Note;Figurebasedonrespondentdataonly;Analysisisbasedonalimitednumberofdatapoints;Adjustedfiguresinrespectof2013reportduetoextensive

research and revised respondent data;


20% 21% 21%

5%

7% 8%

1% 2% 3%

2012 2013 2014

First party data Second party data Third party data

Volume of Impressions enriched by data (Advertisers perspective)


Respondents forecast that on average their programmatic revenue will grow with a similar +28% in 2015. In many cases programmatic becomes part of a company roadmap, with a pre-set mix between the available inventory for traditional and programmatic trade, enabling a very accurate forecast for expected programmatic revenues.

“Digital audio is rapidly growing in the Netherlands. We see basically the same pattern as we have seen in online video a few years ago. One of the signs is the last years’ standardization of IAB global Digital Audio Serving Template. I expect Digital Audio Spots will become available via DSP’s half way this year. Herewith the next important channel becomes available that enables addressable advertising.”

Arthur HoogendijkThe Media Exchange | CEO

“Programmatic has matured and is no longer just a part of the media strategy. We will see more and more often that programmatic goes beyond media buying and is becoming the core of a long term marketing strategy.” Anke KuikVivaki | General Manager

Outlook 2016We estimate that the programmatic display market will grow with +28% in 2015 and +30% in 2016.

Note: Outlook is calculated by estimating the individual future performance of major market participants using YoY regression and trend analysis; Share of

programmatic revenue in display advertising includes estimates of non-participating companies.


25% 29%

34%

2014 2015F 2016F

Share of programmatic revenue in display advertising (%) Display advertising revenue by programmatic trading (m€)

144 182

236

2014 2015F 2016F

+28%

+30%

+39%


Background information & Contact details


MethodologySchematic overview of programmatic display revenue

Note: Analysis in this report is based on approximate 70% of the total programmatic display market.

Estimated data

Publisher/SSP data only

Publisher & Trading desk data(Corrected for double counting)

Trading desk/DSP data only

€ Disclosed revenue / volume

Disclosed revenue / volume

Programmatic revenue

Exchange Trading desks Publishers

Sell side platform (SSP)

Demand side platform (DSP)


Definitions

Programmatic Programmatic is a holistic approach through which media buyers and sellers may align organizational processes with automation technology in support of ongoing, channel-agnostic customer engagement.

Types of programmatic transactionsWithinprogrammaticwedefine2groupsofprogrammatic transactions through RTB (Real Time Bidding) and Non-RTB.

RTB Available impressions are traded on a instant and individual basis to the highest bidder in an auction. Within the RTB auction model two types of programmatictransactionsaredefined:

“Open Auction” In an Open Auction a publisher will generally allow any and all buyers to participate in accessing their inventory through this tactic. Usually there is no direct relationship with the buyer. Publishers may choosetouseBlocklistsandfloorpricing*toprevent advertisers from gaining access. On the advertiser side they are often unaware of what publisher they are buying on. DSP’s usually present a list of exchanges/SSPs to the buyer that they automatically opt into. Buyers may not know or care that they are buying a publisher’s inventory. Because of this, publishers can participate in the Open Auction on a blind basis.

“Private Auction” This auction type is very similar to an Open Auction except a publisher restricts participation to select buyers/advertisers via Whitelist/Blocklist.

A publisher may choose to not participate in an Open Auction and only run a Private Auction. It is important to note that a Private Auction is an auction and buyers will be expected to bid on inventory. A publisher may choose to expose differentinformationsuchastransparencyordata, through the use of Deal IDs or Line Items to add value to this select group of buyers while participating in this tactic.

Non-RTBImpressions are pre-negotiated and pre-sold in one package deal. On availability, the impressions are served to the buyer. Within the Non-RTB model two typesofprogrammatictransactionsaredefined:

“Reserved Fixed Rate” This type of transaction most closely mirrors a traditional digital direct sale. The deal is negotiated

directly between buyer and seller, the inventory and pricing are guaranteed, and the campaign runs at the same priority as other direct deals in the ad server. The programmatic element of the transactionthatdifferentiatesitfromatraditionaldirect sale is the automation of the RFP and campaigntraffickingprocess.Negotiationthroughtofulfillmentcanbe,shouldthepublisherdesire,completed within the technology platform providing the automated reserve functionality.

“Unreserved Fixed Rate” Transactions that fall into this category exist within an exchange environment, but have pre-negotiated, fixedpricing(CPM,CPC,etc.)Typically,UnreservedFixed Rate deals sit at a higher priority than the Open and/or Invitation-Only Auction. A deal of this type typically is necessitated by advertiser demand for a morepredictableofferingwithintheexchangespace.

*Publishers are able to set a rate below which they are not willing to sell the inventory or exclude certain buyers. This option is only really relevant for auction

based transactions.

Source: IAB Programmatic US, Winterberry group


ContactFor questions concerning this research feel free to contact:

Roel van RijsewijkDeloitte | Deloitte Digital+31 (0)6 52 615 [email protected]

Roel van Rijsewijk is a Partner with the Risk Services practice from Deloitte with more than 10 years of experience in risk consulting for companies in the Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) industry. Roel leads one of Deloitte’s main innovation projects on ethics and trust in a digital world

Jorrit SlootDeloitte | Deloitte Data Analytics+31 (0)6 82 019 [email protected]

Jorrit Sloot is a Consultant within the Deloitte Risk Services practice and specialized in data modeling, mathematical and quantitative data analyses

Nathalie La VergeDeloitte |Deloitte Digital+31 (0)6 23 367 [email protected]

Nathalie La Verge is a manager with the Risk Services practice from Deloitte with more than 10 years of experience in risk consulting for companies in the Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) industry.

Govaert PlesmanIAB Nederland+31 (0)85 401 [email protected]

Dutch IAB research includes the IAB Netherlands/ Deloitte Ad Spend Study, all IAB commissioned research, and assisting Dutch IAB members with their research projects. Also responsible for shaping the IAB knowledge base so that it meets members’ needs moving forward.

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© 2015 Deloitte The Netherlands

programmatic trading study - deloitte advertising spend of 182m€ in 2015 and 236m€ in 2016....

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