prof. john c. mutter deputy director the earth institute at columbia university disasters and...
TRANSCRIPT
Prof. John C. MutterProf. John C. Mutter
Deputy Director Deputy Director The Earth Institute at Columbia UniversityThe Earth Institute at Columbia University
Disasters and Development:
Including
Hurricane Katrina: How did a poor world disaster happen in a rich country?
Disasters and the poorest
Does this have to be?
Can your science help people like this?Can your science help people like this?
Collecting water near Collecting water near Kararo EthiopiaKararo Ethiopia
Disasters and the poorest
Does this have to be?
Can our science help people like this ……Can our science help people like this ……
Kararo Village Kararo Village Ethiopia Ethiopia
Can our science help people like this ……Can our science help people like this ……
The divide todayThe divide today richrich poorpoorGNP PPP/personGNP PPP/person $26,320$26,320 $4,450$4,450
population (billion)population (billion) 1.21.2 5.35.3
% increase/year% increase/year 0.10.1 1.51.5
% with HIV/AIDS% with HIV/AIDS 0.50.5 1.41.4
infant mortality rateinfant mortality rate 6/10006/1000 59/100059/1000
children/womanchildren/woman 1.61.6 3.03.0
life expectancylife expectancy 7676 6565
% urban% urban 7676 4141
people/kmpeople/km22 2424 6464
There is a global ecology of human well-beingThere is a global ecology of human well-being
Small variations around the norm in poor countries can Small variations around the norm in poor countries can act like disasters in rich countries -- the poorest are the act like disasters in rich countries -- the poorest are the most vulnerablemost vulnerable
Natural disasters preferentially imperil the poorestNatural disasters preferentially imperil the poorest
Three part case for the co-dependence of human well-being and the state of the planet
Income per person, PPP (1998)
GDP per capita as a function of latitude.
Poverty has a latitudinal dependence
(J. Sachs)
Infant MortalityInfant Mortality
A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three A summary composite index that measures a country's average achievements in three basic aspects of human development: basic aspects of human development:
LONGEVITYLONGEVITY -- life expectancy at birth; -- life expectancy at birth;
KNOWLEDGEKNOWLEDGE -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined -- a combination of the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio;primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio;
STANDARD of LIVINGSTANDARD of LIVING -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, -- GDP per capita (Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, PPP, in US$).PPP, in US$).
HDIHDI is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income. is a more comprehensive measure of deprivation than income.
What is the Human Development Index (HDI)?
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HDI (1980-2000)
Latitude
(negative indicates South)
HDI lowest 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
HDI versus latitude
Climate variability and Malaria risk in Botswana
Preferentially imperil the poorest peoplePreferentially imperil the poorest people• Large total deaths• Large relative to population• Large relative to level of exposure
Mortality risk is gender and age selectiveMortality risk is gender and age selective
Effect on market economy often minimalEffect on market economy often minimal
Characteristics of global disasters impacts
Disaster mortality risk from combined hazardsDisaster mortality risk from combined hazards
(World Bank Hot Spots: Dilley, Chen, Lerner-Lam et al)
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1000.00
0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 1000.00 10000.00Annual Disaster-Related Deaths
Annual Disaster-Related Deaths per Million Pop.
Bottom 40% HDI
Bottom 40% Average
Middle 40% HDI
Middle 40% Average
Top 20% HDI
Top 20% Average
Aggregate Natural Disasters
Source UNDP 2004
Relative Cyclone Vulnerability
India
Pakistan
Papua New Guinea
Viet Nam
Bangladesh
Honduras
Nicaragua
SwazilandComoros
Lao
China
Philippines
El Salvador
Malaysia
Fiji
Cape Verde
Belize
Costa RicaJamaica
Venezuela
Colombia
Thailand
Mexico
US
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
Rep. of Korea
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000
Average population exposed to cyclones
Average annual deaths
Bottom 40% HDI
Middle 40% HDI
Top 20% HDI
Very old and young and women are at greatest risk
Relative Drought Vulnerability
Guinea
Burundi
KenyaPapua New Guinea
UgandaMadagascar
Pakistan
India
Indonesia
MauritaniaChad
MozambiqueSudan
Ethiopia
Philippines
Brazil
China
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
100,000.00
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000
Average population exposed to droughts
Average annual deaths
Bottom 40% HDI
Middle 40% HDI
Top 20% HDI
Females have small survival advantage
Relative Earthquake Vulnerability
India
Guatemala
Indonesia
Nicaragua
Yemen
Uganda
PhilippinesChina
Chile
Armenia
Iran
Turkey
Brazil
Kazakhstan
Romania
Argentina
Italy
US
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
Germany
Belgium
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000
Average population exposed to earthquakes
Average annual deaths
Bottom 40% HDI
Middle 40% HDI
Top 20% HDI
Men have a smalladvantage
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Flood Vulnerability
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0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
HDI (1980-2000)
HDI lowest 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
Amenabad India
School Algeria 1980
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Flood Vulnerability
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HDI (1980-2000)
HDI lowest 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
Islamanbad Pakistan 2005
Northridge California
Relative Flood Vulnerability
Indonesia
Nepal
Morocco
Egypt
Djibouti
Gambia
Botswana
India
Kuwait
Argentina
Venezuela
Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan
China
Switzerland
Japan
New Zealand
U.S.
Norway
UK
Germany
0.01
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1.00
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000
Average population exposed to floods
Average annual deaths
Bottom 40% HDI
Middle 40% HDI
Top 20% HDI
Flod vulnerabilityW.r.to latitude and HD
Tsunami damage Sri Lanka
Tsunami damage Sri Lanka
Mortality risk is a combinationof physical and social Vulnerabilities: fragile dwellings in risky places.
Flood disaster economic Flood disaster economic losseslosses
Flood disaster mortality
Typical levee failures
Sources: http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/v/mapping/Flood+Depth+Estimation.html; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levee_and_flood_wall_failure_in_New_Orleans_(following_hurricane_Katrina)
Metairie
New Orleans
Jefferson Parish
St. Bernards Parish
East Orleans
Algiers
(Lower Ninth Ward)
Outcomes of Social and Physical Vulnerability
Total deceases victims to date Total deceases victims to date 14171417..
But definition of Katrina victim is uncertain: But definition of Katrina victim is uncertain:
those who died during or after moving to a different state may not be those who died during or after moving to a different state may not be counted.counted.
Approx 1000 remain unaccounted for. Approx 1000 remain unaccounted for.
Total Total maymay be close to be close to 20002000
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of victims
Top 10 Hurrican Death Tolls Since 1900Top 10 Hurrican Death Tolls Since 1900
Galveston Galveston (1900):(1900): 8,0008,000 Lake OkeechobeeLake Okeechobee (1928):(1928): 2,5002,500 KatrinaKatrina (2005):(2005): 1,4171,417 Unnamed Unnamed (1919):(1919): 600600 New EnglandNew England (1938):(1938): 600600 Labor DayLabor Day (1935):(1935): 408408 AudreyAudrey (1957):(1957): 390390 Great AtlanticGreat Atlantic (1944):(1944): 390390 Great IsleGreat Isle (1909):(1909): 390390 Unnamed Unnamed (1915):(1915): 350350
# 3,000 - 1737 Calcutta cyclone (India) # 2,500 - Andhra Pradesh cyclone, 1996 # 2,334 - Typhoon Iris (China, 1959) # 2,150 - hurricane, (Caribbean, 1935) # 2,060 - Hurricane David, (Dominican Republic, U.S., 1979) # 2,000-3,000 - hurricane, (Central America, 1934) # 2,000 - hurricane, (Gulf of Mexico, 1780) # 2,000 - hurricane, (Florida, 1781) # 2,000 - hurricane, (Cuba, Florida, 1870) # 2,000 - Chenier Caminada Hurricane, (Louisiana, 1893) # 1,620 - Hurricane Stan, (Mexico, Central America, 2005) # 1,605 - Hurricane Katrina, (United States, 2005) not including
2,500 missing[1] # 1,600 - Typhoon Mary, (China, 1960) # 1,500-2,500 - hurricane, (Windward Islands, 1831) # 1,500-2,500 - hurricane, (Central America, 1931) # 1,500 - hurricane, (Greater Antilles, Mexico, 1909) # 1,300 - Typhoon Ike, (Philippines, 1984) # 1,200 - Hurricane Hazel (Bahamas, Haiti, U.S., Canada,1954) # 1,145 - Hurricane Gordon (Haiti, U.S., 1994)
Katrina in comparison
910 deceased victims processed at St Gabriel Morgue as of Jan
18th
786786 identified with age, gender and race (approx identified with age, gender and race (approx half the total victims) half the total victims)
629629 released to families released to families
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims
Gender Gender 51% male49% female
RaceRace50% African American42% CaucasianAll other groups less
than 4%
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims
Sources: http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/v/mapping/Flood+Depth+Estimation.html; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levee_and_flood_wall_failure_in_New_Orleans_(following_hurricane_Katrina)
Outcomes of Social and Physical Vulnerability
Flood vulnerability
Flood vulnerability
Gender Gender 51% male49% female
RaceRace50% African American42% CaucasianAll other groups less
than 4%
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims
Age: the equalizer Age: the equalizer 64% older than 60 yrs39% older than 75 yrs
1% less than 5 yrsless than 4% younger than 20 yrsless than 20% younger than 50 yrs
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims
Relative Flood Vulnerability
Indonesia
Nepal
Morocco
Egypt
Djibouti
Gambia
Botswana
India
Kuwait
Argentina
Venezuela
Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan
China
Switzerland
Japan
New Zealand
U.S.
Norway
UK
Germany
0.01
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100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000
Average population exposed to floods
Average annual deaths
Bottom 40% HDI
Middle 40% HDI
Top 20% HDI Katrina effect
Katrina Effect onFlood Vulnerability
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Flood Vulnerability
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HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
Flood vulnerability
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Flood Vulnerability
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Katrina Effect on Flood vulnerability
US KKatrinaeffect
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