prof geoff hammond - low carbon business breakfast - innovation centre, bath 18 march 2014
DESCRIPTION
Looking beyond traditional approaches, Professor Hammond outlines three alternative approaches to model the potential for a renewable energy future.TRANSCRIPT
Low Carbon Business Breakfast: Putting The ‘New Into Renewables, Innovation Centre, Bath, Tuesday 18th March 2014.
LOW CARBON ENERGY TRANSITIONS: Advances in Developing and Adopting Viable
Renewable Energy Technologies
Geoffrey P. Hammond
Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Founder Director of I•SEE,
University of Bath, Bath. BA2 7AY. [Email: [email protected]]
LCSW, Bath
CONTENTS
World Energy Transitions: 1850-2050
Energy and the Environment: the challenge of climate change
Drivers for Change in the UK Energy Sector
UK Transition Pathways to a Low Carbon Future
Micro-generators for Decentralised Heat and Power Supply
integrated or ‘whole systems’ appraisal
barriers to take-up, including economics
Concluding Remarks LCSW, Bath
WORLD ENERGY TRANSITONS – Shell ‘Dynamics as Usual’ Scenario
LCSW, BathSource: Hammond & Waldron (Proc. IMechE Part A: JPE, 2008)
ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
Energy sources of various kinds heat and power human
development
Unwanted ‘side’ effects
acid rain / global warming
Need for sustainable development
sustainable energy strategy (energy efficiency, renewables and micro-generators, and possibly nuclear power)
Conflict with energy market liberalisation LCSW, Bath
DRIVERS FOR CHANGE IN THE UK ENERGY SECTOR
GLOBAL WARMING
Much more stringent global ‘greenhouse gas’ budgets/targets likely to come into play, e.g., to meet the 2008 Climate Change Act that
commits the UK Government to reducing CO2 emissions by 80%
over 1990 levels by 2050 But fuel poverty and competitiveness remain constraints
FOSSIL FUEL SUPPLIES More use of natural gas in the UK now worsens diversity Depletion of North Sea oil and natural gas supplies Natural gas/oil imports: perhaps 2/3 of UK gas imported by
2020. Shale gas might have a role after that.
NUCLEAR POWER DECLINE, due to the decommissioning of old reactors
ENERGY SECURITY WILL BECOME MORE CHALLENGING
Source: updated from the PIU Energy Review Team (Cabinet Office, 2001) LCSW, Bath
MULTI-LEVEL PERSPECTIVE ON TRANSITION PATHWAYS
LCSW, BathSource: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)
LANDSCAPE
NEW REGIME
NICHES
OLD REGIME
ENERGYSOURCES
DELIVERYNETWORKS
SERVICES
ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE
VALUES
STRATEGIES
BEHAVIOUR
REGULATION
POLICY MARKETS
ENERGYSOURCES
DELIVERYNETWORKS
SERVICES
ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE
VALUES
STRATEGIES
BEHAVIOUR
REGULATION
POLICY MARKETS
NOW 2060
INTERNATIONALFACTORS
ENVIRONMENTALFACTORS
CULTURALFACTORS
NICHESOLUTIONS
ALTERNATIVESAND OPTIONS
INNOVATION
SOCIALEXPERIMENTATION
TRANSITION PATHWAYS
LANDSCAPE
NEW REGIME
NICHES
OLD REGIME
ENERGYSOURCES
DELIVERYNETWORKS
SERVICES
ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE
VALUES
STRATEGIES
BEHAVIOUR
REGULATION
POLICY MARKETS
ENERGYSOURCES
DELIVERYNETWORKS
SERVICES
ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE
VALUES
STRATEGIES
BEHAVIOUR
REGULATION
POLICY MARKETS
NOW 2060
INTERNATIONALFACTORS
ENVIRONMENTALFACTORS
CULTURALFACTORS
NICHESOLUTIONS
ALTERNATIVESAND OPTIONS
INNOVATION
SOCIALEXPERIMENTATION
TRANSITION PATHWAYS
ENERGYSOURCES
DELIVERYNETWORKS
SERVICES
ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE
VALUES
STRATEGIES
BEHAVIOUR
REGULATION
POLICY MARKETS
ENERGYSOURCES
DELIVERYNETWORKS
SERVICES
ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE
VALUES
STRATEGIES
BEHAVIOUR
REGULATION
POLICY MARKETS
ENERGYSOURCES
DELIVERYNETWORKS
SERVICES
ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE
VALUES
STRATEGIES
BEHAVIOUR
REGULATION
POLICY MARKETS
ENERGYSOURCES
DELIVERYNETWORKS
SERVICES
ENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE
VALUES
STRATEGIES
BEHAVIOUR
REGULATION
POLICY MARKETS
NOW 2060
INTERNATIONALFACTORS
ENVIRONMENTALFACTORS
CULTURALFACTORS
NICHESOLUTIONS
ALTERNATIVESAND OPTIONS
INNOVATION
SOCIALEXPERIMENTATION
TRANSITION PATHWAYS
INTERNATIONALFACTORS
ENVIRONMENTALFACTORS
CULTURALFACTORS
NICHESOLUTIONS
ALTERNATIVESAND OPTIONS
INNOVATION
SOCIALEXPERIMENTATION
TRANSITION PATHWAYS
INTERNATIONALFACTORS
ENVIRONMENTALFACTORS
CULTURALFACTORS
NICHESOLUTIONS
ALTERNATIVESAND OPTIONS
INNOVATION
SOCIALEXPERIMENTATION
TRANSITION PATHWAYS
Market Rules (MR)
Energy companies focus on large-scale technologies: nuclear power, offshore wind & capture-ready coal
Minimal interference in market arrangements
Central Co-ordination (CC)
Greater direct government involvement in governance of energy systems, e.g., issuing tenders for tranches of low-carbon generation
Focus on centralized generation technologies
Thousand Flowers (TF)
More local, bottom-up diversity of solutions
Local leadership in decentralized options LCSW, Bath
UK CORE TRANSITION PATHWAYS
LCSW, Bath
UK ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX - ‘MARKET RULES’ TRANSITION PATHWAY
Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)
LCSW, Bath
‘MARKET RULES’ TRANSITION PATHWAY – 2050 CARBON EMISSIONS.
Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)
UK Electricity Carbon Emissions, 2050 - per kWh
Gas CCS11%
Nuclear1%
CHP27%
Wind (offshore)
2%
Coal CCS56%
Pumped Storage
1%
Wind (onshore)
1%
LCSW, Bath
UK ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX - ‘THOUSAND FLOWERS’ TRANSITION PATHWAY
Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)
LCSW, Bath
‘THOUSAND FLOWERS’ TRANSITION PATHWAY – 2050 CARBON EMISSIONS
Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)
LCSW, Bath
UK TRANSITION PATHWAYS - POWER SECTOR TOTAL CARBON EMISSIONS
Source: Hammond & O’Grady (Proc. Instn Civil. Engrs: Energy, 2014)
LCSW, Bath
UK TRANSITION PATHWAYS – LIFE-CYCLE POLLUTANT EMISSIONS (Single Score LCA)
Source: Hammond et al. (Energy Policy, 2013)
ACTING LOCALLY/THINKING GLOBALLY - The Climate Change/Energy Hierarchy
LCSW, Bath
Encourage sustainable lifestyles________________________
Use less energy
Use renewable energy to provide energy services
Supply energy efficiently e.g., use combined heat and power (CHP) and community heating
________________________
Offset residual carbon dioxide emissions that cannot be avoided by other means
Source: ESD, Corsham
ENERGY LOSSES FROM THE CENTRALISED POWER NETWORK
LCSW, BathSource: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
58%
5%
1.5%
Conversion losses
Primary energy input
100%~35%Electricity delivered
Transmission losses Distribution losses
DISTRIBUTED ENERGY GENERATION - 1
DECENTRALISED FORMS OF ELECTRICITY AND HEAT GENERATION – FACILITATED BY ‘SMART’ GRIDS AND
NETWORKS
Large industrial CHP plants
Onshore and offshore wind ‘farms’
Widespread use of bioenergy plants and biofuels (e.g., biodiesel or bioethanol)
Micro-generation (kW scale): * embedded or standalone solar PV * small-scale wind generators * domestic-scale CHP plants * heat pumps – from ground, air or water sources
LCSW, Bath
DISTRIBUTED ENERGY GENERATION - 2
LCSW, BathSource: Hammond & Waldron (Proc. IMechE Part A: JPE, 2008)
DELIVERED ENERGY TO MEET END-USES IN THE UK RESIDENTAIL SECTOR
LCSW, BathSource: Allen & Hammond (Energy, 2010)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Space heating Water heating Cooking Lighting and Appliances
PJ
ElectricityGas
Solid fuel
Oil
MICRO-GENERATION
Micro-generation could be the most radical form of energy system decentralisation -
Many technological ‘evangelists’ have focused on solar thermal, solar PV, small-scale wind turbines,
heat pumps, and micro-CHP plants.
They would blur the distinction between energy supply and demand.
Consumers may become more active participants in energy system development and operation.
Source: after Dr Jim Watson (SPRU, 2003) LCSW, Bath
LCSW, Bath
RESIDENTIAL MICRO-GENERATIONE
lect
ricity
ge
nera
tion
Micro-wind (Proven)
Solar PV
Hea
t g
ener
atio
n
Solar thermal
Heat pumps (HeatKing): air & ground source
Com
bine
d he
at a
nd p
ower
(Microgen)
Micro-CHP: Internal combustion
Stirling Fuel cell
SOME ESTIMATED MICRO-GENERATOR OUTPUTS
LCSW, BathSource: Allen & Hammond (Energy, 2010)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
'Open' micro-wind 'Urban' micro-wind Solar PV Solar hot water
MICRO-GENERATOR TYPE
AN
NU
AL
OU
TP
UT
(kW
h)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
AN
NU
AL
OU
TP
UT
(G
J)
Energy Exergy
(1.7m rotor diameter, 600W at 12m/s) (15m2, 2.1kWp m-Si) (2.8m2 flat plate)
ELECTRICITY (WORK) OUTPUT TO HOUSE
HOT WATER (HEAT)OUTPUT TO END USER
LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Proc. ICE - Energy, 2008
ENERGY PAYBACK PERIODS (PBP) FOR SELECTED MICRO-GENERATORS
LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Proc. ICE - Energy, 2008)
ENVIRONMENTAL LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) UNITS
LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Proc. ICE - Energy, 2008)
FINANCIAL APPRAISAL OF SELECTED MICRO-GENERATORS
BARRIERS TO MICRO-GENERATION
Lack of information and awareness.
Planning permission problems.
Overcoming the cost barriers:
clean energy cash back for electricity – now largely addressed via the ‘feed-in tariffs (FiT) scheme; implemented in April 2010.
clean energy cash back for renewable heat – via the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI).
Expensive compared with conventional technology.
Source: UK Energy Review and Microgeneration Strategy (2006);
The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (2009) LCSW, Bath
CHALLENGES TO A DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEM
Need to maintain our reliable system (currently the reliability of the power network is around 98%; according to ofgem).
Potential savings due to a reduced need for investment in large power stations cannot be captured until the UK has reliable capacity in small-scale plant – may take many years.
Technology needed for truly distributed infrastructure, e.g., storage, is still emerging.
High costs of the small-scale systems. LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Applied Energy, 2008)
LCSW, Bath
ENVIRONMENTAL FOOTPRINTS OF VARIOUS POWER SECTOR GENERATORS
0
50
100
150
200
250
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biofuel Other Naturalf lowhydro
Wind Solar PV
Fuel
En
viro
nm
en
tal F
oo
tpri
nt (
gh
a/G
Wh
)
Carbon Embodied Energy Transport Built Land Water Waste
Source: Alderson et al. (Energy, 2012)
CONCLUDING REMARKS 1
Specification & analysis of transition pathways & branching points could inform actions needed & consensus building for a shared vision
Analysis shows implications of uncertainties, including
Future progress in different energy technologies Role of ICTs to help facilitate change through a ‘smart grid’ Role of changes in actors’ habits, practices & wider social values And how they might interact with technological change
Shows pathways with different/shifting roles for large & small government, market & civil society actors
& how they might lead to alternative visions & realities of a low- carbon society
Throws light on opportunities & challenges of a ‘more electric’
future
LCSW, BathSource: : Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010); Hammond & Pearson, Energy Policy, 2013)
CONCLUDING REMARKS 2
An energy system with more highly distributed micro-generators could clearly help to reduce carbon emissions.
Importance of network developments and smart metering systems to facilitate distributed energy generation.
Need to ensure that all micro-generators are technologically and economically proven.
These are new technologies and therefore need support – consequently incentives are important (e.g., FiT and the RHI). Such support mechanisms need to be applied consistently over time.
The main barriers include lack of knowledge and awareness, capital costs, and planning issues.
LCSW, BathSource: adapted from Allen et al. (Applied Energy, 2008)
LCSW, Bath
The work presented here has been supported by the Research Councils’ Energy Programme (RCEP):
as part of the SUPERGEN ‘Highly Distributed Energy Futures’ (HiDEF) Consortium [under Grant EP/G031681/1];
the ‘Realising Transition Pathways’ (RTP) Consortium [under Grant EP/K005316/1];
and their predecessor grants.
THANK YOU
END OF THE PRESENTATION