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Process Mining-Driven Optimization of a Consumer

Loan Approvals ProcessThe BPIC 2012 Challenge

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Outline

1、 Introduction2、Materials and Methods3、 Understanding the Process in Detail4、 Assessing Process Performance5、 Discussion6、 Conclusions7、 Homework

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Introduction

• In BPIC 2012 on the loan and overdraft approvals process of a real-world financial institution in the Netherlands.

• Attempted to investigate following areas in detail：– Develop thorough understanding of the data– Develop a detailed understanding of the underlying process– Understand critical activities and decision points– Understand and map life cycle of a loan application from start to eventual

disposition as approved, declined or cancelled– Identify any resource level differences in performance one can discern

based on available data– Identify opportunities for “process interventions”： places in the process

based on likelihood of success

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Materials and Methods

• The data captures process events for 13,087 loan / overdraft applications over a roughly six month period from October 2011 to March 2012.

• The event log is comprised of a total of 262,200 events within these 13,087 cases.

• Starting with a customer submitting an application and ending with eventual conclusion of that application into an Approval, Cancellation or Rejection (Delined).

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Log Description

• An application is submitted through a webpage. Then, some automatic checks are performed, after which the application is complemented with additional information.

• This information is obtained trough contacting the customer by phone. If an applicant is eligible, an offer is sent to the client by mail.

• After this offer is received back, it is assessed. When it is incomplete, missing information is added by again contacting the customer.

• Then a final assessment is done, after which the application is approved and activated.

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Developing Thorough Understanding of the data

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Tools used for analysis

• Disco– Preprocessing and exportation of data into formats suitable for

Microsoft Excel analysis.

• Microsoft Excel– Used Excel alongside Disco, which helped us visualize, rationalize

and refine observations in real time.

• CART Implementation from Salford Systems– Conducting preliminary segmentation analysis of the loan

applications to assess opportunities for prioritizing work effort.

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Disco registration

• 使用下列網址下載 Disco：http://fluxicon.com/disco/

• Disco首頁進行 Mail註冊：

學校信箱

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Setup Disco-1

點 Next

點Install

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Setup Disco-2

點Finish

點 I accept

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Setup Disco-3

學校信箱

點Registe

r

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Setup Disco-4

學校信箱註冊碼

點Complet

e

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Setup Disco-5

點 OK

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起始畫面

開啟 log檔

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載入 Log檔

選擇檔案

點開啟舊檔

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主畫面 -1

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主畫面 -2

開始檔案

過濾器 Case動畫 匯出 Log檔

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Simplifying the Event Log

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Simplifying the Event Log

O_CANCELLED 會與 A_CANCELLED及A_DECLINED同時發生。O_DECLINED

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Filter

點此按鈕

選Attribu

te

選剔除掉的屬性按 Apply

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過濾後畫面

匯出 CSV

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匯出 CSV-1

選 Event log

選 CSV

選Export

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匯出 CSV-2

點存檔

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Simplifying the Event Log

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Result

Activities 拉到

0%

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Determining Standard Case Flow

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Understanding Eventual Outcomes for Each Application

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Understanding Eventual Outcomes for Each Application

1/4立即被拒絕

開始到後續大約剩下 1/4被拒絕

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Case-Level Analysis

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Case-Level Analysis

申請人往往會選擇一個 round number。 EX：5000、 10,000、 15,000

分成965、 966個 case來看

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Case-Level Analysis

核准

取消

正在處裡

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Performance of the Top 5 Resources based on Time Spent

最有經驗的人所花的時間 >平均各領域中花最多時間的五人

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Leveraging Behavioral Data for Work Effort Prioritization

Salford Systems (http://www.salfordsystems.com)

Node 14：818 Case

Node 1：200 Case

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Discussion

• Managing Event Complexity in Data– The event log would also benefit from

consolidation of events that happen concurrently, such as those that occur when successful applications are approved (A_APPROVED, A_REGISTERED and A_ACTIVATED).

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Conclusions

• More extensive work in this area would be greatly aided by the inclusion of additional data points, such as customer information, policies that govern the process, operating costs for the process and eventual customer value.

• The bank would find significant additional benefits from exploring such additional areas, for example , social network analysis.

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Homework

① 使用本篇銀行 log檔，依照您的觀點，提出”簡化流程”的方法。② 將簡化後的流程結果，匯出 JPG及轉存成

CSV檔。③ 繳交信箱： engineer0710@gmail.com④ 繳交日期： 2013/11/15(五 )

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Thanks For Your Listening!!