problem solving & decision making slide v1
TRANSCRIPT
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بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
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وحل القرارات اتخاذ مهاراتالمشكالت
PROBLEM SOLVING AND DECISION-MAKING SKILLS
Dr Abrahim Althonayan 2
. عبدالعزيز بن محمد بن إبراهيم . د عبدالعزيز بن محمد بن إبراهيم دالثنيــــانالثنيــــان
Dr Dr Abrahim AlthonayanAbrahim Althonayan+966505856800 / +447904159720+966505856800 / +447904159720
[email protected]@gmail.com
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Problem Solving &
Decision Making
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"In any moment of decision the best thing
you can do is the right thing, the next best
thing is the wrong thing, and the worst
thing you can do is nothing." (attributed to
Theodore Roosevelt)
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Course objectives
• Acquire analysis solving and decision-making skills
and techniques.
• Learn the various steps and tools of analyzing and
making decisions.
• Learn skills on how to be creative and an initiator.
• Acquire skills and developing an action plan.
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Course Contents
1. Background
2. Types of Decisions
3. Problem and Cause Analysis
4. Go/No Go Decision
5. Criteria Based Decision
6. Situation Analysis
7. Action Plan Analysis
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Course Contents
8. Problem Solving
9. Situation Analysis
10. SWAT Analysis
11. PEST Analysis
12. Summery
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تعريف: Definitions
• Problem Solving – the process of overcoming
obstacles to achieve a goal.
• : المشكالت لتحقيق عمليةحل العوائق على التغلب
األهداف.
• Decision Making – involves making a choice
among alternatives.
• : القرارات .اتخاذ بدائل عدة بين من اإلختيار
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• Good decision-making requires a mixture of skills: creative development and identification of options, clarity of judgement, firmness of decision, and effective implementation.
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Rule 10 /90
10
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Types of Decisions
The types of decision making managers make:
• Routine
• Emergency
• Strategic / Operational
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Management Theories
Theory Y
Theory X
Theory Z
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Decision-making Process
The Decision-making is the thinking process managers use every day to make decisions, which vary in importance from insignificant to critical and far-reaching.
NEED -- A reason for making a decision.
Organize -- Arranging existing information and any additional
information gained during fact-finding.
Gather -- Seeking specific additional information to determine about the
situation; Fact – finding.
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Decision-making Process
Analyse / -- Studying the organized
Evaluate information to determine its meaning in relation to the need
Conclude -- Making a tentative decision which appears to meet the need.
Check -- Carrying out a reality check designed to establish whether the tentative decision will meet the need and whether its consequences are acceptable.
Decision -- Rendering judgments, taking action or committing oneself to a course of action.
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Situation
SITUATION NEED DECISION
Problem and cause AnalysisWhat’s happening and why? Actual cause
GO / NO GO Decisions Should I or Shouldn’t I? Yes or no
Criteria-based Decisions
Which one? Best Alternative
Situation AnalysisWhere do I start? Top Priority actions
Action plan Analysis
How can I implement Taking Actions and my decision keeping Track
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Need – Analyze Cause of Accidents
Decision – Cause ( metal fatigue)
Need – Consider alternative courses of action to prevent recurrence of cause
Decision – Choice of course of action
Need – Schedule Resources to implement course of action
Decision – Schedule (how it will be done)
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Examining Our Decision
Very Poor Poor Average Good Very Good
Quality of Decision
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Examining Our Decision
Evaluating InformationDrawing ConclusionsChecking ConclusionsDeciding
Failing to identify what is significantJumping to conclusionsFailing to check conclusionsEither impetuously taking action or procrastinating
Clearly identifying and accurately weighing significant informationReaching a tentative conclusion which reflects all the informationCarefully checking whether the initial conclusion holds upMaking a firm commitment to a course of action
ObjectivityVisionInitiative
Allowing personal feeling and past experience to adversely affect decisionsViewing one's own world very narrowly and ignoring the impact of decisions on othersLetting things ''slide''
Carefully analyzing information and placing one's own feelings and experience in proper perspectiveContinuously expanding one's view and considering the impact of decisions on othersTaking the lead and remaining proactive
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Problem and Cause Analysis
Jumping to Conclusions
If right
• Save time
• Problem solved
If wrong
• waste time
• Problem not solved
• Problem probably gets worse
• Danger of related things going wrong
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Management Sequence
Analysis
Decide
Plan
Control
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Cause Analysis
Decision Guide NEED
Information BaseDESCRIPTIONOF NEED
GuidelinesDescribe the need in terms of: What’s happening and why?”
Objectivity OBJECTIVITYWhat personal feelings or past experience might reduce your objectivity?How can you keep these in proper perspective?
Vision Vision What broader or longer-range issues are related to this situation?How can you take these into account?
Initiative INITIATIVE What barriers to or opportunities for taking action exist in this situation?What can you do about these?
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Cause Analysis
Evaluate
INFORMATION
QUESTION
Cause AnalysisSIGNIFICANT INFORMATION
What information do you already have? __ What occurred? __ circumstances surrounding the situation ?What additional information do you need? __ How can this information be gathered ?( separating the information into categories helps create a better understanding of it.)What factors could have contributed to the cause ? __ changes ? __ connections ? __ trends ? __ external comparisons? __ unique features ?
Conclude CONCLUSION( Probable cause)What is the most probable cause?
Does it account for all the symptoms?
CheckCHECKHow can you check your conclusion quickly and inexpensively?__ laboratory tests?__ previous records?__ check with specialist?__check with people is similar situations? ( Make sure the checking itself will not have negative consequences.)
DEGISION DECISION(Actual cause)if check confirms the cause. You are ready to consider
whether you need to take further action.
What impact did Objectivity, vision and initiative have on your decision ?
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Chart Is
DimensionRelated FactsCompetitive Facts
What.(Identity)
*On what item is the performance-gap observed?*what exactly is the deviation?
*On which other item could the performance-gap be observed but
was not?
Where.(Place)
*where is the deviation observed? (geographically)*where on the item is the deviation observed?
*where else (geographically) could the deviation be observed but was
not?
When.(Time)
*When is the deviation first observed? (Pattern)*When else in the item’s product-cycle is the deviation first observed?
*When else could the deviation be observed but was not? (what other
pattern?)*when else in the item’s product-cycle could the deviation be first
observed but was not?
Volume.Magnitude)
*How extensive is the deviation?*How many items are faulty? *How big is the deviation on each item? *What is the trend?
*How extensive could the deviation be but was not?
*How many items could have been affected but were not?
*How big could the deviation be on each item but was not?
*What other trend could have been observed but was not?
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Go/No Go Decision
Decision Guide NEED
Information BaseDESCRIPTIONOF NEED
GuidelinesDescribe the need in terms of :”Should I or shouldn’t I?”
Objectivity OBJECTIVITYWhat personal feelings or past experience might reduce your objectivity?How can you keep these in proper perspective?
Vision Vision What broader or longer-range issues are related to this situation?How can you take these into account?
Initiative INITIATIVE What barriers to or opportunities for taking action exist in this situation?What can you do about these?
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Go/No Go Decision
Evaluate
INFORMATION
QUESTION
Go/No GoDecisions PROS / CONS
What information do you already have? __ Current situation? __ proposed situation ?What additional information do you need? __ How can this information be gathered?(Separating the information into categories helps create a better understanding of it.)Divide factors into pros and cons.Weight factors with up to three plusses or minuses.
Conclude CONCLUSIONConsider the balance of plusses and minuses and reach a tentative decision.
CheckCHECK/ RISKSHow can Risks be minimized?
How can you check the validity of your conclusion? __ Can it be implemented on a small scale?__ Can you check with other people?What are the possible risks?__ What could happen if you go ahead/don’t go ahead? __ What effects could this have on goals, people or plans?What can you do to minimize the risks?
DEGISION DECISIONIf you decide to go head, you need to consider what happens next. For example, you may need to choose between alternatives or prepare a plan.
What impact did Objectivity, vision and initiative have on your decision ?
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Go/No Go Decision
PROS+CONS-
TotalTotal
Conclusion Check/Risks How can risks be MinimizedDecision
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Checking
Conclude Check (What could go
wrong?)
Decision
No(Too Risky, try
another conclusion)
Can the risks be minimized?
YES risks acceptable
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Criteria Based Decisions
Decision Guide NEED
Information BaseDESCRIPTION
OF NEED
GuidelinesDescribe the need in terms of:”Which one?”
Objectivity OBJECTIVITYWhat personal feelings or past experience might reduce your objectivity?How can you keep these in proper perspective?
Vision Vision What broader or longer-range issues are related to this situation?How can you take these into account?
Initiative INITIATIVE What barriers to or opportunities for taking action exist in this situation?
What can you do about these?
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Criteria Based Decisions
Evaluate
INFORMATION
QUESTION
Criteria-basedDecisions
CRITERIA/ALTERNATIVES
What factors(criteria) do you need to consider? __ What do you want from your final choice?
Performance capabilities ?Physical characteristics?
__ What will others want from your choice? __ What minimum requirements must be met?
__ What resources can your expend? __ What do you want to changes in the current situation?
__ What undesirable effects do you want to avoid? __ What policies or future changes do you need to
considers?What are the alternatives ?
__ Do they already exist/need to be created?Separate criteria into essential and useful.
Weight useful criteria with one, two or three plusses.Rate extent to which each alternative meet the criteria.
Conclude CONCLUSIONSum up plusses and determine which alternative best meets the criteria.
CheckCHECK/ RISKSHow can Risks be minimized?
Identify possible risks.__ What are the areas of weakest fit with the criteria?
__ What could go wrong?__ what effects could this have on goals, people or plans?
What can you do to minimize the risks
DEGISION DECISIONSelect the alternative which
__ best meet the criteria and __ has an acceptable level of risk.
What impact did Objectivity, vision and initiative have on your decision?
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Impact Of Poor Decisions
Minorday-to-day decisions
Low impact
Major long-range decisions
High impact
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Impact Of Poor Decisions
Minorday-to-day decisions
Low impact
Major long-range decisions
High impact
Degree of care required In arriving decision
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Deciding What We Want Before We Start Looking
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Criteria Based Decision
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Reactive :
Time spent solving problem:• Events control you • As you solve today’s problems, tomorrows are growing • You make little or no real progress• You spend most of your time “fighting fires”
Proactive Time spent developing opportunities:
• You control events • Your effort goes into preventing tomorrow’s problems• You have a definite feeling of progress • You have enough time to do the things you enjoy
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Crucial Vs. Urgent
Crucial and urgent
Crucial not urgent Urgent not crucial Neither crucial
nor urgent
Examples
Investigating an industrial accident
Determining future staffing needs
Handling a customer complaint
Handling routine correspondence
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Action Plan Analysis
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In the space below separate, priorities and locate your major job concerns.
PRIORITISELocate Necessary Process
Key Situational Variable
Critic.Urgent.Growth.
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Situation Analysis
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Situation Analysis
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Situation Analysis
In the space below list the potential problems with regard to each critical step. After doing so, prioritise them by
considering the probability of the problem occurring and the impact if it does.
PRIORITY
Potential ProblemProbableImpact
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Situation Analysis
In the space below modify your action plan by adding the major preventive and contingency actions.
StepActionWhoStartFinishRemarks
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Situation Analysis
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Decision Decision
AnalysisAnalysis
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Decision Analysis
Systematic procedures
Making choices
Considering factors for choice to succeed
Decide what will satisfy success factors
Consider risks
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Elements of a good choice
Objective level
Specific factors
Understanding of what alternative can produce
Evaluation of alternatives
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Decision Analysis Steps
1. State decision objective
2. Identify decision criteria
3. Classify decision criteria
4. Generate alternatives
5. Evaluate alternatives
6. Assess risks
7. Make the decision
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Action Plan Action Plan
AnalysisAnalysis
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Action Plan Steps
1. Action plan statement
2. Develop action plan steps
3. Select critical steps
4. Identify potential problems
5. Prioritize potential problems
6. Determine probable causes
7. Determine preventive & contingent actions
8. Modify action plan
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Recognise The Situation:
What keeps me from doing the best work I can?
What is the present situation?
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Separate:
What are the specific concerns?
• Performance-gaps
• Matters of choice
• Future trouble
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Prioritise:
Criticality (High/Medium/Low)
Urgency (High/Medium/Low)
Growth (High/Medium/Low)
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Locate:
Problem Analysis
Decision Analysis
Action Plan Analysis
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Plan Necessary Action:
Who?
What?
Where?
When?
How?
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Situation Situation
AnalysisAnalysis
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Situation Analysis Steps
1. Recognize situation
2. Separate concerns
3. Prioritize concerns
4. Locate necessary process
5. Plan necessary Action
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The Six-Step Rational Model
• Define the Problem
• Identify decision criteria
• Weight the criteria
• Generate alternatives
• Rate each alternative on each criterion
• Compute the optimal decision
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SWOT Analysis:
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Opportunities
• Threats
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6-M Analysis
• Manpower
• Machinery
• Methods
• Materials
• Money
• Minutes
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Fishbone Diagram
Problem
Methods
MaterialsManpower
Machines
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Force Field Analysis
Cite objective, goal, target, problem,need:
Driving Forces
Restraining Forces
Forces favoring the change
Forces resisting the change
{Equilibrium or current status}
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Is / Is Not Analysis
IsIs Not
WhatWhat is the area or object with the problem?
What is not the area or object with the problem?
Symptoms
What are the symptoms of the problem?
What are not the symptoms of the problem?
WhenWhen is the problem observed?
When is the problem not observed?
WhereWhere does the problem occur?
Where does the problem not occur?
WhoWho is affected by the problem?
Who is not affected by the problem?
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PEST analysis
Political:• ecological/environmental issues
• current legislation home market
• future legislation
• European/international legislation
• regulatory bodies and processes
• government policies
• government term and change
• trading policies
• funding, grants and initiatives
• home market lobbying/pressure groups
• international pressure groups
• wars and conflict Dr Abrahim Althonayan
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PEST analysis (Continue)
Economic• home economy situation
• home economy trends
• overseas economies and trends
• general taxation issues
• taxation specific to product/services
• seasonality/weather issues
• market and trade cycles
• specific industry factors
• market routes and distribution trends
• customer/end-user drivers
• interest and exchange rates
• international trade/monetary issues Dr Abrahim Althonayan
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PEST analysis (Continue) Social• lifestyle trends
• demographics
• consumer attitudes and opinions
• media views
• law changes affecting social factors
• brand, company, technology image
• consumer buying patterns
• fashion and role models
• major events and influences
• buying access and trends
• ethnic/religious factors
• advertising and publicity
• ethical issues Dr Abrahim Althonayan
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PEST analysis (Continue) Technological• competing technology development
• research funding
• associated/dependent technologies
• replacement technology/solutions
• maturity of technology
• manufacturing maturity and capacity
• information and communications
• consumer buying mechanisms/technology
• technology legislation
• innovation potential
• technology access, licencing, patents
• intellectual property issues
• global communications Dr Abrahim Althonayan
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The Situational Leadership
Dr Abrahim Althonayan
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Problem Problem
AnalysisAnalysis
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Conditions of Problem Solving
Possess skills
Experience success
Be rewarded
Not fear failure
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Problem Structure
1. Action Plan Statement:
• what is to be done?
• what are the desired results?
realistic
timely
2. Develop Action Plan Steps:
figure-out step-by-step actions
determine time-schedule
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Problem Structure
3. Select Critical Steps:
potential disasters
high risk areas
4. Identify Potential Problems:
what could go wrong with this activity?
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Problem Structure
5. Prioritise Potential Problems:
probability (High/Medium/Low)
impact (High/Medium/Low)
6. Determine Probable Causes:
what could cause this potential problem?
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Problem Structure
7. Determine Preventive & Contingent Actions:
what can reduce the probability of this problem occurring?
what can reduce the impact if it does occur?
8. Modify Your Action Plan:
ad major preventive actions
ad major contingency actions
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Problem Structure
Objectivity Vision Initiative Check
Conclude
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From Problem to Disaster
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3. Which course of action should we take?
Make reasoned choice
Choice-making pattern is based on these activities
1. Determination of purpose
2. Consideration of available options
3. Assessment of relative risks
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4. What lies ahead? Future-oriented thinking
Anticipate the future
Look into the future
1. Preventive
2. Contingent
Take action
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Effective Thinking Styles
1. Holistic Thinking:
All Issues surrounding and affecting the situation
2. Divergent Thinking:
Opening new dimensions to build diver data – base
3. Convergent Thinking:
Combining, conclusions, adding, dropping
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Effective Thinking Styles
4. Creative Thinking:
New innovative original concepts & ideas
5. Collaborative Thinking:
Exchanging & building on others' ideas
6. Other Thinking Styles:
Positive & Negative
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The Situational Leadership
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Johari Window
HIDDENHIDDEN UNKNOWNUNKNOWN
FREEFREE BLINDBLIND
Known To Self Not Known To Self
Kn
own
To
Oth
ers
Not
K
now
n T
o O
ther
s
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KEEP IT BALANCED
• Be included
• Feel secure
• Personal value
• Comfort
• Be effective
• Be free to join
• Be well regarded
• Open sharing
• Stay together
• Know its resources
• Enjoy itself
• Mission value
• Harmony
• Survive conflict
• Clarity
• Task value
• Acceptance
• Data
• Rules
• Collaboration
• Progress
• Completion
I Needs WE Needs IT Needs
Individual Needs Team Needs Task Needs
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Problem Problem
AnalysisAnalysis
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Conditions of Problem Solving
Possess skills
Experience success
Be rewarded
Not fear failure
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Problem Analysis Steps
1. Recognize the problem
2. State the performance gap
3. Specify the problem
4. Identify critical distinctions
5. Look for changes
6. Generate possible cause
7. Verify most possible causes
8. Apply corrective action