probability and statistics in the law
DESCRIPTION
PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS IN THE LAW. Philip Dawid University College London. STATISTICS = LAW. Interpretation of evidence Hypothesis testing Decision-making under uncertainty. Prosecution Hypothesis. INGREDIENTS. Defence Hypothesis. Evidence. BAYESIAN APPROACH. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS IN THE LAW
PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS IN THE LAW
Philip Dawid
University College London
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STATISTICS = LAWSTATISTICS = LAW
• Interpretation of evidence
• Hypothesis testing
• Decision-making under uncertainty
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INGREDIENTSINGREDIENTS
Prosecution Hypothesis G
Defence Hypothesis G
Evidence E
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– or posterior odds:
)|( EGP
)|(
)|(
E
E
GP
GP
• BAYESIAN APPROACH• BAYESIAN APPROACH
• FREQUENTIST APPROACH• FREQUENTIST APPROACH
and
)|( GP E
)|( GP E
Find posterior probability of guilt:
Look at & effect on
decision rules
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SALLY CLARKSALLY CLARK
• Sally and Stephen Clark’s sons Christopher and Harry died suddenly at ages 11 and 8 weeks, in Sally’s care
• The Clarks claimed that their children had died from natural causes (SIDS??)
• Contested prosecution medical evidence of maltreatment
–SALLY CONVICTED OF MURDER
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• A paediatrician testified that, for a family like the Clarks, the probability of one child dying from SIDS is 1 in 8,543
At Trial:At Trial:
• He was asked if the report calculated “the risk of two infants dying in that family by chance.”
• Answer: Yes, you have to multiply 1 in 8,543 times 1 in 8,543 …. [the CESDI study] points out that it’s approximately a chance of
1 in 73 million
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WHAT TO THINK?WHAT TO THINK?
• Clear intuitive argument against independence (and thus calculation of “1 in 73 million”)
• BUT probability of 2 natural deaths remains very small
HOW TO CONSIDER?
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Prosecutor’s FallacyProsecutor’s Fallacy
)|( EGP
)|( GP E• = 1 in 73 million
• Probability of deaths arising from natural causes is 1 in 73 million
• = 1 in 73 million
• Probability of innocence is 1 in 73 million
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Alternatively…Alternatively…
• P(2 babies die of SIDS) = 1/73 million
• P(2 babies die of murder) = 1/2000 million
BOTH figures are equally relevant to the decision between the two possible causes
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BAYES:BAYES:
POSTERIOR
ODDS
)(
)(
)(
)(
)|(
)|(
GP
GP
GP
GP
GP
GP
|E
|E
E
E
=LIKELIHOOD
RATIO PRIOR
ODDS
If prior odds = 1/2000 million posterior odds = 0.0365
%5.3)|( EGP
73m ??
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IDENTIFICATION EVIDENCEIDENTIFICATION EVIDENCE
:
:
:
S
C
I i
Assume
million10/1)(])[,|(
1])[,|(
xIPxIGP
xIGP
CS
S
E
E
“match probability”
),(: xIxI SC E
Individual i
Criminal
Suspect Evidence:
Match
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PROSECUTOR’S ARGUMENTPROSECUTOR’S ARGUMENT
The probability of a match having arisen by innocent means is 1/10 million.
So )|( EGP = 1/10 million
– i.e. )|( EGP is overwhelmingly close to 1
– CONVICT
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DEFENCE ARGUMENTDEFENCE ARGUMENT
• Absent other evidence, there are 30 million potential culprits
• 1 is GUILTY (and matches)
• ~3 are INNOCENT and match
• Knowing only that the suspect matches, he could be any one of these 4 individuals
• So 41)|( EGP
–ACQUIT
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BAYESBAYES POSTERIOR ODDS = (10 MILLION) “PRIOR” ODDS
)|(
)|(
BGP
BGP
PROSECUTOR’S argument OK if
Only BAYES allows for explicit incorporation of B
2/1)|( BGP
DEFENCE argument OK if million 1/30)|( BGP
MPLR /1
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The Island ProblemThe Island Problem
• N+1 on island: N (100) innocent, 1 guilty
• Match, probability = P (0.004)
• Prosecution:
• Defence:
PGP 1)|( E
)1/(1)|( NPGP E
(0.996)
(0.714)
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Other ArgumentsOther Arguments
Let number of individuals i having Ii = x be M
)|()|( 1 EE MEGP
– need distribution of M given
Note: Initially
1),|( MMGP E
So
),(: xIxI SC E
):1(Bin~ PNM
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Argument 1Argument 1
• Evidence tells us
• So
1M
)1);;1(Bin~|()|( 1 MPNMMEGP E
(0.902)
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Argument 2Argument 2
• Evidence tells us 1 (guilty) individual has x
• Our of remaining N innocents, number with x is ; while
• So
):(Bin~ PNM
(0.824)
MM 1
PN
P
PNMMEGPN
)1(
)1(1
));(Bin1~|()|(1
1
E
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Argument 3Argument 3
• Evidence E is equivalent to 2 successes on 2 Bernoulli trials with replacement
• So
• So
• Then (0.714
– as for defence)
2
1)|(
N
mmMP E
mNm PPm
NmmMP
12 )1(
1)|( E
)1/(1
)|()|( 1
NP
MEGP
EE
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DENIS ADAMSDENIS ADAMS
– Match probability = 1/200 million
1/20 million
1/2 million
Doesn’t fit descriptionVictim: “not him”Unshaken alibiNo other evidence to link to crime
• Sexual assault• DNA match
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BAYES’S THEOREMBAYES’S THEOREM
POSTERIOR ODDS on guilt
= LIKELIHOOD RATIO PRIOR ODDS
= 2 million (1 / 200,000)
= 10 (10:1)
Posterior probability of guilt = 10/11
= 91%
Reasonable doubt – ACQUIT
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WHAT ABOUT OTHER EVIDENCE?WHAT ABOUT OTHER EVIDENCE?
• Didn’t fit description• Victim: “not him”• Unshaken alibi
LR = 0.1 / 0.9 = 1/9
LR = 0.25 / 0.5 = 1/2
Apply Bayes’s Theorem again:Final odds on guilt = 10 1/9 1/2
}
= 5/9 (5:9) (probability of guilt = 5/14 = 35%)
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Dependence on Match Probability
Match probability 1/200m 1/20m 1/2m
Posterior probability of guilt
98% 85% 35%
– number of noughts does matter!
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DATABASE SEARCHDATABASE SEARCH
• Crime trace, frequency (match probability) 1 in 1 million
• Search Police DNA database (D) of size 10,000
• Find unique match: “John Smith” (S)
• No other evidence
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Defence CaseDefence Case
• Probability of finding a match in database if innocent ~ 10,000 (1/1,000,000) = 1/100
• Match probability of 1/100 is not convincing evidence
• Evidence against John Smith is (significantly) weakened by virtue of database search
– ACQUIT
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Prosecution CaseProsecution Case
• We have examined 10,000 individuals
• Of these, 9,999 found not to match
• This has reduced the pool of potential alternative culprits
• Evidence against John Smith is (marginally) strengthened by virtue of database search
– CONVICT
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Which likelihood ratio?Which likelihood ratio?• Hypothesis HS: “John Smith did it” is data-
dependent• Replace by hypothesis HD: “Someone in
database D did it”– equivalent after search identifies S (but not before)
• LR = 1/(match probability) is now only 100– weak evidence?
• But HD is a priori 10,000 times more probable than HS
– posterior odds the same! – agrees with prosecution argument
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Multiple StainsMultiple Stains
• 2 DNA stains– 1 on sheet, 1 on pillow
– assume 2 perpetrators, 1 stain from each
• John Smith (S) matches pillow stain– associated “match probability” P
• What are appropriate hypotheses, likelihoods, inferences?
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HypothesesHypotheses• S left one of 2 stains
• S left pillow stain
• S left pillow stain
• S left neither stain
• S left neither stain
• S didn’t leave pillow stain
2/PLR
PLR
)1(2/)2( PLR
( = prior probability S is guilty)
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What to present in Court?
• Hypotheses equivalent (only) after data
• Different prior odds
• Identical posterior odds
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Mixed StainsMixed Stains
• Crime trace containing DNA from more than 1 contributor–Rape
–Scuffleetc
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O. J. SIMPSONO. J. SIMPSON
Crime
OJS
RG
A
B
C
Marker DQ-Frequency
13%
20%
28%
“MATCH” to OJS
Allele
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MATCH PROBABILITY?MATCH PROBABILITY?• PROSECUTION:
Frequency of OJS type
AB: 5%• DEFENCE:
Combined frequency of all matching types
AA, AB, AC, BB, BC, CC: 39%
• LR approach assuming Goldman (AC) in mixture:
AB, BB, BC: 21%• LR approach not assuming Goldman in mixture:
(more complex calculation) ~ 21%
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MISSING DNA DATAMISSING DNA DATA
• What if we can not obtain DNA from the suspect ? (or other relevant individual?)
• Sometimes we can obtain indirect information by DNA profiling of relatives
• But analysis is complex and subtle…
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HANRATTYHANRATTY
• James Hanratty convicted and executed in 1962
• DNA profile from crime items analysed in 1998
• Population frequency less than 1 in 2.5 million
• DNA profiles from mother and brother – “consistent with” crime DNA being from Hanratty
(“A6” murder and rape, 1961)
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PRESS REPORTSPRESS REPORTS
• “There is a 1 in 2.5 million chance that Hanratty was not the A6 killer”
• “The DNA is 2.5 million times more likely to belong to Hanratty than anyone else”
Likelihood Ratio based on profiles of mother and brother (complex calculation):
440
– even though no direct match to Hanratty!
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DISPUTED PATERNITYDISPUTED PATERNITY
• MOTHER (m1) of CHILD (c1) claims that PUTATIVE FATHER (pf) is its TRUE FATHER (tf)
But DO have DNA profiles from:
• Two full BROTHERS (b1, b2) of PUTATIVE FATHER
undisputedchild
disputedchild
brothers
• His UNDISPUTED CHILD (c2) and its MOTHER (m2)
• DNA profiles from MOTHER and CHILD No profile from PUTATIVE FATHER
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DECISION AIDDECISION AID“PROBABILISTIC EXPERT SYSTEM”
– embodies probabilistic relationships (between inherited genes)
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ANALYSISANALYSIS
• Measurements for 12 DNA markers on all 6 individuals
• Enter data, “propagate” through system
• Overall Likelihood Ratio in favour of paternity:
~1300
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FURTHER COMPLEX DNA CASES
FURTHER COMPLEX DNA CASES
• Contamination
• Laboratory errors, mix-up, fraud
• Relatives
– …
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• Statistics
• Law
• Crime Science
• Psychology
• Economics• Philosophy of
Science
• Geography• Medicine• Ancient History• Computer Science• Education• …
EVIDENCE, INFERENCE AND ENQUIRY
EVIDENCE, INFERENCE AND ENQUIRY
www.evidencescience.org
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EVIDENCE SCIENCEEVIDENCE SCIENCE
• Subject- and substance-blind approach• Inference, explanation, causality• Recurrent patterns of evidence• Narrative, argumentation, analysis, synthesis• Cognitive biases• Formal rules• Decision aids• Interdisciplinary studies• …