Private response, public response and climate futures

Disasters as sources of renewal and opportunity

• Alternative explanations of how discrete events bring about change:– Adaptive cycle, regime shifts– Policy windows hypothesis

• Is there an underlying explanation for how traumatic and disruptive disturbance can lead to transformation?

Social contract

• A real or implicit compact between a civil community and the state: defines the rights and responsibilities of these groups to each other

• Contracts legitimate and constrain government authority, and secure protections for citizens when risks change

• Constantly renegotiated, possibly through perturbations

A natural experiment

Ireland, November 2009

Miller et al. (2013). Hydrology Research 44,180-97.

Cumbria, November 2009Camerton Station

Measuring social contracts

A natural experiment

Data• Tracking policy outcomes and discourse• Household surveys in Cumbria and Galway (n=356),

August-September 2010

Analysis• Perceptions of responsibility for protection, recovery

and compensation.• How are social contracts renegotiated after events?• Fairness, barriers to individual action, locus of

control, moral hazard.

Differences apparent – explaining the evolving contract

• Those flooded and not flooded also differ between Cumbria and Galway in their perceptions of future risk of flooding.

The percentage of respondents who said they thought they were likely to experience flooding in their local area in the next 5 years (n=356)

Differences apparent – explaining the evolving contract

• Those flooded and not flooded (and expecting future floods) in Cumbria and Galway differ in perceptions of personal and government responsibility

Whose responsibility to reduce impact of future flooding?

The percentage of respondents (both flooded and non-flooded) that agreed or strongly agreed that action to reduce the likelihood of flooding is the responsibility of homeowners or Government (n= 356)

Differences apparent – explaining the evolving contract

• Cumbrians, with more recent experience, more resigned and more willing to adapt themselves

Of the flooded sample who believed that they would be flooded in the next 5 years (Galway n= 53, Cumbria n=42) the percentage who agreed or strongly agreed that that: I feel it should be my duty to take more responsibility if the risk of flooding increases; I would consider making changes to my house to prevent flood damage in order to give me peace of mind and that I would consider making changes to my house in order to save on my insurance bill.

Evolution in the social contracts

UK IrelandDemand for continuity or change

Public underwriting of

private risk

Contested liability

Expectations and behaviour

Willingness to adapt

Disillusionment

Explaining individual versus collective responsibility

H1: Willingness to act individually = f (perceived Scope and Capacity of

government;perceived Performance of

government:a) perceived fairness of

outcomeb) perceive fairness of

process)Adger et al. (2015 in review) Sharing the pain …

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a) Willingness to act b) Awareness prior risk c) Warning provided d) What to do during a flood

e) What to do after a flood

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Differences between each jurisdiction (Cumbria dark grey; Galway light grey) in terms of percentage of respondents who agreed or strongly agreed that individuals have a responsibility to act if flood risk increases (Willingness to Act), that they were aware of prior flood risk, had knowledge that a flood was about to happen together with knowledge of what to do during and after a flood event.

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a) Ability to voice concerns b) Differential exposure c) Listened to d) Authorities acted on

% Re

spon

dent

s tha

t agr

ee or

stro

ngly

agre

e

Differences between each jurisdiction (Cumbria dark grey; Galway light grey) for items representing fairness of process. Plotted are the percentages of respondents who agreed or strongly agreed that a) they were able to voice concerns prior to flood, b) that decisions made by authorities resulted in differential exposure, c) that authorities listened to communities after the flood and d) that authorities have acted on concerns of community after flood.

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a) Prompt response post-disaster b) Resources distributed fairly c) Authorities did all they could

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s tha

t agr

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Differences between each jurisdiction (Cumbria dark grey; Galway light grey) for items representing fairness of outcome. Plotted are the percentages of respondents who agreed or strongly agreed that a) they received help promptly after the flood, b) that resources were distributed fairly and c) that public authorities did all they could to help the community after the flood.

• Is the perception of fairness simply observed by individuals? Or is it constructed in communities?

• Which solutions come to dominate and why?

Lowland Britain 2013/14

Indepth longitudinal research: focus - resilience and response Flooded affected public (n=31 x 2), flood professionals (n=25 x 2), August 2014 - April 2015.

Butler et al. (in prep)

There were good bits, which sounds awful in times of flooding but the community coherence stuff was just phenomenal, it really brought you, it re-engaged your faith in humanity actually. Yes, it really engaged the community and now that the roads are open, the floods have gone, we've also withdrawn and see each other less, which is sad.

“ “

I made shortbread, people made cake and this, that and the other, and we had a get together. When the firemen were taking us to and fro in the boats, they were invited as well, so that was fun. We had a little party more or less every Sunday round about lunchtime, it was great, we all appreciated it. Quite missed it when it finished at the end. But that's what I mean about a community pulling together.

“ “

Matilda Temperley

Yes, bereavement really, the loss of community that we’ve all suffered… there has been a lot of ill feeling actually and it’s quite difficult because for a lot of people, there has been a lot of inequality in what’s happened. It does seem that some insurance companies have done more than others, the volunteers have helped some people and not others.So it has made a lot of ill feeling and I think some of it will never go.

“ “

Dredging up a solution

Coming back to the combination factors, the ditches and drains and reens and rivers have not been properly cleaned and maintained for decades and still, as we’re talking, I could take you out for a walk or bike ride and show you dozens of ditches which are blocked, overgrown and haven’t been cleaned for decades and apparently all these waterways, they come under the control of certain bodies.

“ “

Implications• Climate change experienced as events.

• Events stimulate demand for change, but what change?

• Making public goods private: normalising disasters and outsourcing and devolution of risk and responsibility.

• Responsibility, risk and response are constructed – individually and in communities.

• Understanding social contracts and their limitations gives insight into the public-private responsibility for risk and legitimacy of its governance.

Co-investigators: University of Exeter - Catherine Butler, Kate Walker-Springett, Louisa Evans, Saffron O’Neill. University of East Anglia - Irene Lorenzoni: National University of Ireland Maynooth - Conor Murphy

Funding: Economic and Social Research Council; National Institute for Health Research; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research