primary consumer sentiment index · 2020. 3. 30. · introducing the primary consumer sentiment...
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1World Worries | March 2017 | Version 1 | Public
Primary Consumer Sentiment Index Saudi Arabia, March 2020
Introducing the Primary Consumer Sentiment Index
Ipsos Saudi Arabia’s Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), isa national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and futurestate of the local economy, personal financial situation, as well asconfidence to make large investments and ability to save.
Consumer sentiment is a key predictor of purchase trends in themarket. Despite it being a lagging indicator, if consumerconfidence is high, people will make more purchases and theeconomy will expand.
Businesses and Policy Makers can monitor changes in the index tofactor the data in their decision-making processes. A wave-on-wave decreasing trend suggests consumers have a negativeoutlook on their ability to spend. Thus, manufacturers may expectconsumers to avoid retail purchases, particularly items thatrequire financing. Likewise, banks can anticipate a decrease inlending activity, mortgage applications, and credit card usage.
Introducing the Primary Consumer Sentiment Index
The PCSI result is driven by the aggregation of
four, weighted, sub-Indices
Overall Primary Consumer
Sentiment Index
PCSI Employment Confidence
PCSI Economic Expectations
PCSI Investment Climate
PCSI Current Personal Financial Conditions
1. Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
2. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
3. Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1 means it is very weak.
4. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
5. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?6. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?7. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know
personally?8. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save
money for your retirement or your children’s education?9. Thinking of the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result of
economic conditions?10. Now look ahead at the next six months. How likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose
their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?
Overall Primary Consumer Sentiment Index
Primary Consumer Sentiment IndexMarch 2020 Summary
PCSI SUMMARY: MARCH 2020
Q. Generally speaking, would you say
things in this country are heading in the
right direction, or are they off on the
wrong track?
87%
13%
PCSI, March 2020
65.1Versus Previous Wave;
February, 2020
64.7
Q: Rate the current state of theeconomy in your local area using a scalefrom 1 to 7, where 7 means a verystrong economy today and 1 means avery weak economy.
48%
48%
4%
Q: Rate your current financial situation,using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7means your personal financial situationis very strong today and 1 means it isvery weak.
31%56%
13%
35.%
22.%
22.%
21.%
20.%
Unemployment andJobs
Corruption
Moral Decline
Poverty & SocialInequality
Taxes
Right Direction /Wrong Track
Country EconomicSituation
Personal FinancialSituation
Top 5 Concerns for Consumers in Saudi Arabia
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Strong (T2B)
Neither Strong Nor Weak
Weak (B2B)
Strong (T2B)
Neither Strong Nor Weak
Weak (B2B)
Country’s General Situation
SAUDI ARABIA: RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK
Trending
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Right Direction Wrong Track
87%
13%
Q. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
SAUDI ARABIA: RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACKGlobal Comparison
93%
87%
53%
49%
48%
42%
41%
41%
39%
38%
38%
35%
34%
33%
31%
31%
29%
29%
28%
27%
21%
19%
11%
7%
13%
47%
51%
52%
58%
59%
59%
61%
62%
62%
65%
66%
67%
69%
69%
71%
71%
72%
73%
79%
81%
89%
China
Saudi Arabia
India
Great Britain
the US
Brazil
South Korea
Poland
Russia
Canada
Spain
Argentina
Australia
Turkey
Mexico
Germany
Japan
Italy
Hungary
Belgium
France
Sweden
South Africa
Right Direction Wrong Track
Q. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?% change compared
with previous month; February 2020
14%
11%
-6%
11%
8%
-2%
-3%
9%
-3%
-9%
6%
1%
-2%
6%
-10%
-7%
-5%
10%
4%
8%
0%
-8%
-3%
Unemployment and Jobs -1%
Corruption -1%
Moral Decline 0%
Poverty and Social Inequality 0%
Taxes -11%
Education 6%
Terrorism -2%
Childhood Obesity 0%
Climate Change 2%
Health Care -3%
Threats Against The Economy 3%
Crime and Violence -3%
High Cost of Living/Inflation 2%
Maintaining Social Relations 3%
Immigration Control 1%
Access to Credit -1%
Q: Which three of the following topics do you find the most worrying in Saudi Arabia?
WHAT CONCERNS SAUDI ARABIA
Concerns for Consumers in Saudi Arabia
35%
22%
22%
21%
20%
19%
18%
18%
17%
16%
13%
10%
10%
7%
4%
3%
% change compared with previous month;
February 2020
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Top 5 Concerns for Consumers in Saudi Arabia– Trending
35%
22%
22%
WHAT WORRIES SAUDI ARABIA
Unemployment and Jobs Corruption Moral Decline Poverty and Social Inequality Taxes
20%
21%
Personal Financial Situation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Strong Neither Strong Nor Weak Weak
Q: Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1means it is very weak.
CURRENT PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION
Trending
31%
56%
13%
31%
28%
26%
19%
19%
16%
14%
12%
12%
11%
10%
9%
9%
9%
8%
8%
6%
6%
6%
4%
4%
4%
3%
Saudi Arabia
Sweden
China
US
India
Great Britain
Canada
Turkey
Poland
Australia
Germany
Hungary
Spain
Brazil
Belgium
France
South Africa
Argentina
Mexico
Russia
South Korea
Italy
Japan
CURRENT PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION
% Strong
Global Comparison
Q. Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about thesame, somewhat weaker, or much weaker that it is now?
FUTURE PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION
Trending
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Strong Neither Strong Nor Weak Weak
63%
28%
9%
Saudi Arabia’s Economic Situation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Strong Neither Strong Nor Weak Weak
Q: Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1means a very weak economy.
CURRENT STATE OF THE ECONOMY
Trending
48%
48%
4%
48%
35%
19%
17%
16%
16%
11%
10%
10%
9%
8%
7%
7%
7%
7%
6%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
1%
Saudi Arabia
China
Sweden
Turkey
Germany
India
Poland
Canada
Brazil
Great Britain
Australia
Hungary
Belgium
Mexico
France
Russia
South Korea
Spain
South Africa
Italy
Argentina
Japan
CURRENT STATE OF THE ECONOMYGlobal Comparison
% Strong
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Strong Neither Strong Nor Weak Weak
Q: Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be stronger, about the same or weaker than it isnow?
FUTURE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
Trending
76%
19%
5%
Employment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%More Confident Less Confident
Q. Compared to 6 months ago, are you now more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you knowpersonally?
JOB SECURITY
Trending
70%
30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Yes No
Q. Thinking about the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result ofeconomic conditions?
JOB LOSSES IN THE PAST SIX MONTHS
Trending
56%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Likely Unlikely
Q. Looking ahead at the next six months, how likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose theirjob in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?
JOB LOSSES IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS
Trending
43%
57%
Investment Climate
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%More Comfortable Less Comfortable
Q. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable about your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to savemoney for your retirement and your children’s education?
ABILITY TO INVEST IN THE FUTURE
Trending
67%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%More Comfortable Less Comfortable
Q. Compared to 6 months ago, are you now more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?
ABILITY TO MAKE A MAJOR PURCHASE
Trending
70%
30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%More Comfortable Less Comfortable
Q. Compared to 6 months ago, are you now more or less comfortable making other household purchases?
BUYING HOUSEHOLD DURABLES
Trending
72%
28%
PCSI Deep Dive
OVERALL PCSI
Saudi Arabia Global Comparison
52.4
65.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sau
di A
rab
ia
Ch
ina
US
Swed
en
Ind
ia
Gre
at B
rita
in
Ger
man
y
Can
ada
Po
lan
d
Bra
zil
Au
stra
lia
Spai
n
Mex
ico
Be
lgiu
m
Hu
nga
ry
Fran
ce
Arg
enti
na
Sou
th A
fric
a
Ital
y
Ru
ssia
Turk
ey
Sou
th K
ore
a
Jap
an
64.7
Avg. 48.4
Avg. 61.8
PCSI PERSONAL FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
1. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOWmore or less comfortable making a majorpurchase, like a home or car?
2. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOWmore or less comfortable making otherhousehold purchases?
3. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOWmore or less confident about job security foryourself, your family and other people youknow personally?
4. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOWmore or less confident of your ability to investin the future, including your ability to savemoney for your retirement or your children’seducation?
5. Rate your current financial situation, using ascale from 1 to 7, where 7 means yourpersonal financial situation is very strongtoday and 1 means it is very weak.
6. Rate the current state of the economy in yourlocal area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7means a very strong economy today and 1means a very weak economy.
Saudi Arabia
48.3
67.1
0102030405060708090
100
Global Comparison
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Avg. 62.4
Avg. 39.7
64.7
1. Now look ahead at the next six months. Howlikely is it that you, someone in your family orsomeone else you know personally will losetheir job in the next six months as a result ofeconomic conditions?
2. Looking ahead six months from now, do youexpect the economy in your local area to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about thesame, somewhat weaker, or much weakerthan it is now?
3. Looking ahead six months from now, do youexpect your personal financial situation to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about thesame, somewhat weaker, or much weakerthan it is now?
PCSI ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS
59.8
0102030405060708090
100
Global Comparison
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Avg. 66.8
Avg. 56.1
69.2
Saudi Arabia
70.4
49.3
67.9
0102030405060708090
1001. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW
more or less comfortable making a majorpurchase, like a home or car?
2. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOWmore or less comfortable making otherhousehold purchases?
3. Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOWmore or less confident of your ability to investin the future, including your ability to savemoney for your retirement or your children’seducation?
4. Rate your current financial situation, using ascale from 1 to 7, where 7 means yourpersonal financial situation is very strongtoday and 1 means it is very weak.
5. Looking ahead six months from now, do youexpect your personal financial situation to bemuch stronger, somewhat stronger, about thesame, somewhat weaker, or much weakerthan it is now?
PCSI INVESTMENT CLIMATE
Global Comparison
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Avg. 63.2
Avg. 42.2
65.0
Saudi Arabia
49.4 52.9
0102030405060708090
1001. Compared to 6 months ago, are you now
more or less confident about job security foryourself, your family and other people youknow personally?
2. Thinking about the last 6 months, have you,someone in your family or someone else youknow personally lost their job as a result ofeconomic conditions?
3. Now look ahead at the next six months. Howlikely is it that you, someone in your family orsomeone else you know personally will losetheir job in the next six months as a result ofeconomic conditions?
PCSI EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE
Global Comparison
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Avg. 53
Avg. 57.156.3
Saudi Arabia
Methodology
• Methodology – Self Administered Online Interviews
• Sample Size – 500 Respondents
• Age – 15 years old and above
• Sample Criteria – General Public
The PCSI Index is calculated by utilizing data from the survey results.Responses are divided into aggregated Top Box (Reward) numbers andBottom Box (Penalty) numbers. Using Shapely Value Analysis, valueswere generated for the penalty and reward for each question. Themagnitude of each question is the difference between the reward andpenalty. An Importance factor, which the ultimate weight of theparticular question in the index, is the magnitude of each questiondivided by the total magnitude of all questions. A Top Box Weight foreach question is calculated by dividing the Reward by the magnitude ofeach question. Similarly, the Bottom Weight for each question iscalculated by dividing the Penalty for each question by magnitude of thesame. The Index Value for each question is calculated by using theformula: Importance x (Top Box Wt * Top Box %) - (Bottom Box Wt *Bottom box %).
For more information, please contact:
Nicola Qahoush
Research Manager – Ipsos MENA
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