CONSUMER SENTIMENT BAROMETER

The Surprising Resilience of Emerging-Market Consumers

Consumer sentiment remains resilient despite second and third waves of the pandemic

1The prolonged crisis is creating financial pressures on consumers across emerging markets

2Many of the new behaviors adopted by consumers during the pandemic are proving to be sticky

3The pandemic is taking an invisible toll as consumers face mental health pressures and avoid medical facilities for many illnesses

4A high level of vaccination acceptance across emerging markets offers a silver lining for the future

5

More Than a Year into the Pandemic, Five Key Themes Are Evident Across Emerging Markets

Source: BCG analysis.

Sources: Our World in Data; Johns Hopkins University.Note: Cumulative cases are as of June 29, 2011.

COVID-19 Cases Are Resurging in Many Emerging Markets as New Virus Variants Spread

420

68

10121416182022242628303234

Total cumulative cases (millions)

April2020

July2020

October2020

January2021

April2021

July2021

US

India

Brazil

UKArgentinaIndonesia

SingaporeThailandPhilippines

High COVID-19 Positivity Rates and Low Testing Rates Suggest That the Situation in Some Countries May Be Even Worse Than It Seems

Sources: Our World in Data; Johns Hopkins University. 1Depending on the country, “cumulative tests” refers to total people tested, total samples tested, or total tests done. 2Data for May and June 2021.

Cumulative tests per 1,000 people1

COVID-19 positivity rate (%)2

High testing, low positivity rate

Low testing, low positivity rate

High testing, high positivity rate

Low testing, high positivity rate

ArgentinaColombia

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

302510 15 20

Malaysia

ThailandVietnamUgandaRwanda

KenyaSouth Africa

CanadaRussia

Spain

Japan

Chile

India

South AmericaAsia North AmericaAfrica Europe

Indonesia PhillipinesMexico

Germany

Ethiopia BrazilPeru

Singapore

US

UK

Italy

Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research from March 2020 through June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 4,500 respondents per country, depending on population.Note: Questions asked: “Do you agree with each of the following about coronavirus? a. ‘I’m not going out of the house fearing risk to health/I’m trying to avoid public spaces as much as possible.’ b. ‘There will be an economic recession due to the coronavirus.’”

Despite the Rising Number of Cases, Consumer Sentiment Remains Resilient and Is No Worse Than It Was at the Onset of the Pandemic

IndiaAgreement (%) Cases (thousands)

100 30,000

15,000

0March2020

May2020

May2021

August2020

75

50

Phillipines China

United StatesIndonesiaBrazil

25

Agreement (%) Cases (thousands)

100 2,000

1,000

0April2020

May2020

May2021

July2020

75

50

25

Agreement (%) Cases (thousands)

100 200

100

0March2020

May2020

May2021

July 2020

75

50

25

Agreement (%) Cases (thousands)

100 30,000

15,000

0March2020

April2020

June2021

November2020

75

50

25

Agreement (%) Cases (thousands)

100 3,000

1,500

0April2020

May2020

May2021

July2020

75

50

25

Agreement (%) Cases (thousands)

100 40,000

20,000

0April2020

July2020

May2021

August2020

75

50

25

Fear for personal health Fear of recession Cumulative cases in thousands

The Prolonged Nature of the Pandemic Is Hitting Incomes—and Spending—Across Emerging Markets

Phillipines India Malaysia Brazil Indonesia China Vietnam Singapore

DEVELOPEDECONOMY

COMPARISON

Change inhouseholdincomestated byconsumers1

–40% –48%

–22%–37% –43% –46%

–21%–36%

–44%–58%

–25% –29%–47% –52%

–40% –37%

–21% –20%

–4%–15%

–28% –28%

1%

–3%

0%

–4% –2% –5%

–30% –34%–25% –25%

Change inhouseholdspendingstated byconsumers1

GDPgrowthin 2020

–9.5% –8.0% –5.6% –4.4% –2.1% 2.3% 4.2% –5.4%

October 2020–March 2021 compared to pre-COVID-19 Today compared to pre-COVID-19

Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.1Respondents were asked from October 2020 through March 2021, as well as from late May through early June 2021, to indicate how their household income and spending had changed compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak. The percentages are not based on official GDP change or employment data.

Consumers Have Cut Their Spending in Discretionary Categories and Focused More on Health and Household Care

Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.Note: Values shown are the averages across markets in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Question: “How do you expect your spending to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?”

–30

–20

–10

0

10

20

40

30

–45 –25 –20 –15 –10 –5 5 10–30–40 –35 0 20 25 30 3515

Net change in spending in April 2020 vs. pre-COVID-19 (%)

Chan

ge in

con

sum

er s

pend

ing

May

202

1 vs

. Apr

il 20

20 (p

erce

ntag

e po

ints

)

Temporary blips:short-lived acceleration

New consumer priorities: sustainedacceleration in growth trajectory

Signs of life: categoriesrecovering at different speeds

Hit hard: recovery likely to be drawn out

IMPR

OVI

NG

DET

ERIO

RAT

ING

POSITIVENEGATIVE

Packaged food

Sports equipment

Cars

TobaccoLuxury products

Public transport

Alcohol

Eatingat restaurants

Nonprescriptionmedications

Cosmetics

Scooters/bikes

Home construction

ClothingStaples

Streamingservices

Mobile phones

Healthinsurance

Health supplements

Personal care

Household care

Fresh foodsMobileservices

Homefurnishings

Toys and games

Education

Food delivery

Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research, late May through early June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.1Respondents were asked to indicate how their frequency of doing various activities had changed after the onset of COVID-19 versus before it.

Some New Consumer Behaviors Prompted by the Pandemic Are Sticking More Than a Year Later

New shopping habits

Adoption of digital tools

Focus on personal health

Shop from online retailers

Buy from chat groups

Use digital wallets

Subscribe to streaming apps

Buy healthier food

Use nutritional supplements

Increase in usage compared to before the pandemic (%)1

50

46

51

52

34

42

More than Half of Consumers in Emerging Markets Feel That the Pandemic Is Adversely Affecting Their Mental Health

Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research, late May through early June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.1Respondents were asked to what extent they agree with the following statement: "I feel my mental health is suffering due to the pandemic." Agreement = 4 or 5 on a scale of 1 to 5.

Respondents who agree that their mental health is suffering due to the pandemic, by country (%)1

Respondents who agree that their mental health is suffering due to the pandemic, by generation (%)1

54

Malaysia Gen Z(18–25 years old)

Millennials(26–40 years old)

Gen X(41–55 years old)

Baby boomers(56 years or older)

Philippines Indonesia Thailand Vietnam China Singapore

5244

6255

4348

51 5347

41AVG51

AVG51

DEVELOPEDECONOMY

COMPARISON

As Many People Avoid Health Care Facilities, the Pandemic May Be Taking a Hidden Toll That Will Become Visible over Time

8591 89 92 93

7679 AVG

84

DEVELOPEDECONOMY

COMPARISON

Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research, late May through early June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.1Respondents were asked if they had reduced their visits to health care facilities, such as clinics and hospitals, since the pandemic started compared to previous years.2Respondents who said that they had reduced their visits to health care facilities were asked to indicate the major reasons for doing so.

People who have reduced their visits to health care facilities (%)1

Reasons for avoiding health care facilities(% of respondents)2

Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand Vietnam China Singapore

I am worried about contracting COVID-19 at health care facilities

The hospital is too busy

I am healthier than in previous years

I wanted to, but could not due to government restrictions on movement

I cannot afford the cost of health care facilities

I cannot afford the cost of transport

Other

78

26

23

21

12

6

2

DEVELOPEDECONOMY

COMPARISON

The High Level of Vaccine Acceptance, Especially in Countries with the Most Serious Outbreaks, Is Reason for Long-Term Optimism

Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research, late May through early June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.Note: “Adopters” responded, “Yes, I would be willing to take the vaccine”; “hesitant” responded, “I am not sure, I may/may not take the vaccine”; “rejectors” responded, “I would not be willing to take the vaccine.”1Respondents were asked to indicate their willingness to take the COVID-19 vaccine if it were made available. 2Our World in Data, as of June 29, 2021. 3Our World in Data, as of June 29, 2021.

Malaysia Philippines Indonesia ThailandIndiaBrazil Vietnam Singapore

Adopters Hesitant Rejectors

8 10

70

1622

82

9

69

2512

22

4

23

7

13

2

8

5

4

4

<1

<1 36

11

12

87

Vaccine acceptance by respondents (%)1

4 6 2 5

87 8447

41

13

83

6431

63

Casesper 1,000people2

Receivedboth dosesof vaccine(%)3