presidential contest looms, complicati ons to...

Daily Market Outlook 4 Nov 2016

1 Please see disclaimer on last page

Major Indices Close Chg %Chg

SET 1,493.08 -5.57 -0.3

SET50 932.36 -5.39 -0.5

SET P/E (x) 21.9

SET P/BV (x) 1.9

SET Div. Yield (%) 3.1

Dow Jones 17,930.67 -29.0 -0.2

S&P 500 2,088.66 -9.3 -0.4

NASDAQ 5,058.41 -47.2 -0.9

UK 6,790.51 -54.9 -0.8

Germany 10,325.88 -45.1 -0.4

France 4,411.68 -3.0 -0.1

Japan 16,774.24 -65.8 -0.4

South Korea 2,015.44 -18.3 -0.9

Hong Kong 23,031.30 -375.8 -1.6

China 3,061.35 +2.8 +0.1

Taiwan 9,219.17 -33.4 -0.4

Singapore 2,802.08 -5.1 -0.2

Malaysia 1,665.02 -2.0 -0.1

Indonesia 5,340.40 -24.2 -0.5

Philippines 7,312.18 -117.6 -1.6

Trading Summary Buy Sell Net

Institution 4,396 5,410 -1,015

Proprietary 4,767 4,350 417

Foreign 12,146 12,993 -847

Individuals 28,030 26,586 1,444

Total Trading Value 49,339 Btmn

Most Active Value Value Close %Chg

BANPU 3,622 19.70 -2.0 BPP 3,002 28.00 -1.8

ESSO 2,244 11.50 13.9

IVL 2,027 31.25 -3.8 BCPG 1,772 15.20 -0.7

Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg

US Crude 44.66 -0.7 -1.5

Brent Crude 46.35 -0.5 -1.1

Gold 1303.30 -4.9 -0.4

FX Rates Close Chg %Chg

USD/THB 34.97 +0.0 +0.1

EUR/USD 1.11 +0.0 +0.1

USD/JPY 102.97 -0.3 -0.3

USD/CNY 6.76 +0.0 +0.1

Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg

Technical picks (support & resistance) STEC (S: 24.50, R: 28.00); TASCO (S: 17.80, R: 19.60); SGP (S: 11.40, R: 12.50); SET (S: 1,478, R: 1,508)

Presidential contest looms, complications to Brexit Expect the SET to trade cautiously today as anxiety and risk-off sentiment spreads across global financial markets over the outcome of next week’s US presidential election. Other events and looming data, including the US non-farm payrolls data due later today and falling oil prices, play less of a role than the ramifications of a potential Trump presidency. Adding to more uncertainty, the UK High Court ruled Brexit needs parliament's approval, complicating the situations. Major local factors today tilt towards the negative, especially a drop in consumer confidence for the first time in four months in October on low farm prices.

Pick of the day: TSE (Bt5.10; BUY; AWS TP Bt6.10)

Thai Solar Energy Pcl. is our pick of the day for its strong

earnings growth prospects in 2017-19 and very attractive

valuation. TSE operates solar power business in Thailand

and Japan with total power generating capacity of

102MW. It has contracts on hand to construct and

develop 33MW in solar farms in Japan and 22MW in

biomass power plants in Thailand over the next 1-3 years.

The company has also been in negotiations to develop

another 60MW in solar farms in Japan. The long-term

outlook for solar power development in Japan is very

bright with great opportunities as the Japanese

government has a crucial policy to shift away from nuclear

power generation following the Fukushima incident. In

addition, the potential to expand its biomass power

portfolio in Thailand is thanks to the country’s abundant

agricultural materials and waste. TSE’s strong financial

position will enable the company to successfully pursue

its investment goals. We expect TSE’s earnings to

consecutively make record highs with an estimated EPS

CAGR during 2017-19 of 18% driven by successive

commercial operation of developing projects on hand that

already obtained PPA, while any new projects would be

an upside to our projection. TSE is well undervalued as

the share trades at 2017E PEG of 0.88x, which is behind

its growth potential. TSE’s price pattern has indicated a

strong uptrend for the share price with buy signals

occurring in all of its three key charts, namely daily,

weekly and monthly. The share is likely to break Bt5.20

before moving up further to test Bt6.20. There is a stop

loss at Bt4.80. (Resistance: 5.20, 5.30, 5.40; Support:

5.00, 4.90, 4.80)

Local issue Consumer confidence dips in October on crop

price fears. The University of the Thai Chamber of

Commerce (UTCC) reported that the consumer

confidence index dropped for the first time in four

months to 73.1 points in October, from 74.2 in

September, as consumers mainly concerned about

low farm product prices, particularly for rice. (Bangkok

Post)

Thailand Research Department

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 0-2680-5041

Mr. Krit Suwanpibul (No.17968) Tel: 0-2680-5090

Mrs. Vajiralux Sanglerdsillapachai (No. 17385) Tel: 0-2680-5077

Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 0-2680-5056

Mr. Napat Siworapongpun, CFA, FRM (No.49234) Tel: 0-2680-5094



Comment: With the latest subsidy schemes for rice farmers, together with

recovery in the export sectors and increased spending and investment by the

government ahead, we expect to see improved figures in advance.

Extra funds for top villages given the nod. The National Village and Urban

Community Fund Committee approved Bt1.56bn in additional funding to finance the

Village Fund scheme for 1,562 grade A villages who have efficient and prudent funding

management. (Bangkok Post)

STEC acquired a 10% stake in TSE for 181.5mn shares from WAVE at Bt4.85/share,

worth Bt880.28mn. This took the holding of WAVE in TSE from 20% to 10%. (Infoquest)

Comments: We believe STEC made the deal for investment and diversification to

the power business locally and abroad together. We recommend BUY STEC

(AWS TP Bt28.00) and TSE (AWS TP Bt6.10).

Global issues

England's High Court ruled that the government needed parliamentary approval

to trigger Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon Treaty, the formal step needed to start the

process of exiting the bloc, potentially delaying PM Theresa May's Brexit plans. The

government said it would appeal against the High Court ruling and Britain's Supreme

Court is expected to consider the case early next month. Parliament could in theory

block Brexit as most lawmakers (MPs) supported staying in the EU in a referendum in

June. But few observers expect that outcome, and a Reuters survey last month

suggested MPs would back Brexit now. (Reuters)

Longer-dated US Treasury prices fell on Thursday after the Bank of England

indicated that inflation is likely to rise further, while uncertainty over next week's US

Presidential election propped up shorter-dated debt. Benchmark 10-year notes ended

down 5/32 in price to yield 1.82%, up from 1.80% late on Wednesday. (Reuters)

The US dollar hovered near multi-week lows against a basket of major currencies

on Thursday on uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US presidential election.

The dollar index was last down 0.24% at 97.163, not far from a more than three-week

low of 97.041 also touched Thursday. (Reuters)

USA

Wall Street shares finished lower on Thursday with the S&P500 falling for an eighth

straight session, its longest losing streak since the 2008 financial crisis, as investors

grappled with uncertainty over next week's US presidential election while Facebook

dragged the market with profit warning. (Reuters)

Slimmer lead: Democrat Hillary Clinton maintained her narrow lead over Republican

rival Donald Trump in the US presidential race just days ahead of the 8 Nov election,

according to two polls released on Thursday. A New York Times/CBS poll found Clinton

ahead by 3 percentage points, at the cusp of the 28 Oct – 1 Nov survey's margin of

error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. A Washington Post/ABC poll showed Clinton

2 percentage points ahead among 1,767 likely voters surveyed 29 Oct – 1 Nov. It also

had a 3-percentage point margin of error. (Reuters)



Labor market remains tight: US jobless claims increased 7,000 to a seasonally

adjusted 265,000 for the week ended 29 Oct, the highest level since early August. It

was the 87th straight week that claims remained below 300,000, a threshold associated

with a healthy labor market. That is the longest stretch since 1970. Economists had

forecast the number unchanged at 258,000 in the latest week. (Reuters)

New orders for US factory goods rose for a third straight month in September,

but a further decline in order books suggested the manufacturing sector will struggle to

emerge from a prolonged slump. New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.3%

after an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in August. Economists had forecast factory orders

rising 0.2% in September. (Reuters)

Markit: Upbeat final composite and service PMIs in October: The seasonally

adjusted final Markit US Composite PMI Output Index rose to 54.9 in October, from

52.3 in the previous month. The latest reading signalled the strongest upturn in private

sector output since November 2015. Meanwhile, the final Markit US Services Business

Activity Index registered 54.8 in October, up markedly from 52.3 in September and

above the crucial 50.0 no-change value for the eighth consecutive month. The latest

reading signalled a robust upturn in service sector. (IHS Markit)

ISM: Downbeat service sector activity: ISM reported US non-manufacturing sector PMI

at 54.8 in October, below market consensus expectations at 56.0 and September’s

57.1. (ISM)

Europe European shares ended flat on Thursday, giving up early gains as a London court

ruling complicated the Brexit process, boosting the pound and sending British blue

chips to a five-week low. (Reuters)

Asia Activity in Japan's services sector expanded for the first time in three months in

October, suggesting consumer spending is picking up after a series of typhoons kept

shoppers at home. The IHS Market Japan Services PMI rose to 50.5 in October from

48.2 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis. (IHS Markit)

The Caixin/Markit services PMI rose to 52.4 in October on a seasonally adjusted

basis from 52.0 in September, posting the strongest reading since June. (IHS Markit)

Massive government investment in China's semiconductor industry risks

distorting the global market for integrated circuits, leading to damaging

overcapacity and stifling innovation, US Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker has

warned. The comments come at a time of growing trade tension between the Asian

giant and the US over accusations of dumping, industrial overcapacity and a souring

business climate for foreign firms doing business in China. (Reuters)



Commodities Oil prices settled down more than 1% on Thursday as investors reeled from a

record weekly surge in US crude inventories, and remained skeptical about whether

OPEC can actually implement its planned output cap. US crude fell 68 cents (-1.5%)

to settle at US$44.66 per barrel. At one point, oil had fallen more than US$1 a barrel

and hit a session low of US$44.37. Brent crude was down 51 cents (-1.1%) at

US$46.35 a barrel. It hit a session low of US$45.99. The OPEC members meet on Nov.

30 in Vienna to agree on a production cap to reduce a global glut and combat low

prices. (Reuters)

Gold edged higher on Thursday in response to a lower dollar and also uncertainty

about the outcome of a tight US presidential race. Spot gold rose 0.4% to US$1,302.17

an ounce, remaining below Wednesday's one-month high of US$1,307.76. US gold

futures settled down 0.4% at US$1,303.30 per ounce. (Reuters)

CG Rating


Score Range Number of Logo Description

90 – 100

80 – 89

70 – 79

60 – 69

50 – 59

Below 50

No logo given

Excellent

Very Good

Good

Satisfactory

Pass

N/A

Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2015.

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors

Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant

to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed

on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative

Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a

general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of

a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on

inside information.

The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate

Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey

result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company

Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

CG Rating


ขอมล Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator ของบรษทจดทะเบยนระดบ 1ACD AEONTS AFC AIRA AJ ALUCON AMC AQUA ARIP AUCT BAT-3K BIG BJCBLISS BMCL BOL BRR BSBM CBG CCET CCN CGD CMR CPH CSC CSPCTW DCON DRACO DSGT DTCI E EMC ESSO FOCUS FSMART GIFT GLANDGRAND GUNKUL HFT HTECH IHL ILINK ITD JSP KDH KTIS KTP LEE LSTMAJOR MATCH MAX M-CHAI MDX MIDA ML MPIC NC NEP NNCL NWR OHTLPICO PK PL PPM PRAKIT PRECHA PRIN PSTC PYLON RAM RICH RS SANKOSAUCE SAWAD SAWANG SCN SEAFCO SF SHANG SIRI SMART SMM SOLAR SPACK SPGSPPT SPVI STA STAR SVH SVOA SWC TAPAC TC TCCC TCJ TCOAT THTKS TNH TNPC TPA TPAC TPOLY TRC TRUBB TSE TTA TTI TTL TTTMTWP TWZ U UMS UPA UPOIC UTP UVAN VARO VI VIBHA VIH VTEWG

ระดบ 22S ABICO AF AKP AMARIN AMATA AOT APCO AYUD BEAUTY BFIT BH BKDBLAND BTNC CCP CI CSR CSS EFORL EPCO FE FNS FVC GEL GLOBALHEMRAJ IEC IFS INET JUTHA KASET KCAR KKC KSL L&E LALIN LTX MMALEE MBK MBKET MEGA MK MPG MTLS NCH NCL NPP OCC OCEAN PBPCA PRINC QH ROCK RPC S&J SGP SIAM SIS SKR SMG SMIT SORKONSUSCO TAKUNI TEAM TF TIC TIP TIPCO TMC TMI TPP TRT TRU TRUETSC TSI TTW TVD TVO UKEM UNIQ UWC VNG WIIK WIN XO

ระดบ 3AABC ACAP ADVANC AEC AGE AH AIE AMANAH ANAN AP APCS APURE ASASIA ASIAN ASIMAR BIGC BROOK BTS BWG CEN CENTEL CFRESH CHARAN CHO CHOTICM CNT COL CPALL CPF CPI CPL DELTA DEMCO DIMET DNA DTAC EAECF EE EVER FPI GBX GC GFPT GLOW HMPRO HOTPOT ICC ICHI IFECINOX INSURE IRC JAS JTS JUBILE KC KTC KYE LHK LPN LRH MAKROMC MCOT MFC MFEC MINT MJD MONO MOONG NBC NDR NINE NMG NSINTV OGC PACE PCSGH PDI PG PHOL PLAT PPS PR PRANDA PREB PSQLT RATCH RML ROBINS ROJNA RWI SAMCO SCCC SCG SEAOIL SE-ED SENA SINGERSITHAI SMK SMPC SPALI SPC SPCG SPI SRICHA SSI STANLY SUPER SVI SYMCSYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TCMC TFI THAI THRE THREL TICON TKT TLUXE TNL TPCORPTMILL TMT TSTE TSTH TTCL TU TVI UOBKH UREKA VGI VNT WACOAL WHAZMICO

ระดบ 3BAAV AHC AI AIT AKR ARROW ASK BA BDMS BEC BECL BJCHI BUICGH CHG CHOW CIG CITY CK CKP COLOR CWT EARTH EASON EPG F&DFANCY FIRE FMT FORTH GENCO GL GOLD GPSC GRAMMY HYDRO IRCP IT JCTKCM KWC LH LIT LOXLEY MACO MANRIN MATI MODERN MSC NOBLE NOK NPKNUSA OISHI OTO PAF PAP PATO PF PJW PLANB PLE POLAR PRG PTLQ-CON QTC RCI S11 SALEE SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SC SCP SFP SIMSLP SMT SPA SPORT SSC SST STEC STPI SUC SUTHA T TAE TBSPTCC TFD TGCI TGPRO THANA THIP TIW TK TMW TNDT TOPP TPC TPCHTPIPL TSR TT TYCN UAC UBIS UEC UMI UP UPF UT UV VPOWAVE WINNER YUASA

ระดบ 4ASP BAFS BANPU BAY BBL BKI BLA CIMBT CNS CSL DCC DRT DTCEASTW ECL EGCO ERW FSS GCAP HANA HTC INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCEKGI KKP KTB LANNA LHBANK MTI NKI PSL PTG PTTEP SABINA SCB SNCSNP SSF SSSC TCAP THCOM TISCO TIMB TMD TNITY TOG

ระดบ 5BCP CPN GYT PE PM PPP PT PTT PTTGC SAT SCC THANI TOP

ไมเปดเผยหรอไมมนโยบายA ACC AJD AQ BCH BGT BROCK BSM BTC CHUO CPR CRANE EICFER JMART JMT KAMART KBS KIAT LDC MBAX MCS METCO NEW NEWS NYTPAE PDG PERM PMTA POST RCL RICHY ROH S SIMAT TCB TR TSFTVT WORKหมายเหตระดบ 1 : มนโยบายระดบ 2 : ประกาศเจตนารมณระดบ 3 : มมาตรการปองกน ซงทง 2 กรณ ถอเปนผลการประเมนในระดบเดยวกน

3A : บรษทมการประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค3B : บรษทมค ามน และนโยบายของบรษท แตมไดประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค

ระดบ 4 : ไดรบการรบรองระดบ 5 : ขยายผลสผท เกยวของ

Contact / Disclaimer


ranch Address Phone Fax

Head Office

(Mercury Tower)

540 Mercury Tower 7th, 14th, 17th Floor, Ploenchit Road,

Lumphini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 0-2680-5000 0-2680-5111

Silom 191 Silom Complex Building 21st Floor, Room 2, 3-1, Silom

Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 0-2630-3500 0-2630-3530-1

Asok 159 Sermmitr Tower 17th Floor, Room 1703, Sukhumvit 21

Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110 0-2261-1314-21 0-2261-1328

Pinklao

7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Tower B 16th Floor, Room

41605-41606 Boromratchchachonnani Road, Arun-Amarin,

Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700

0-2884-7333 0-2884-6091

Chaengwattana

1

99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd

Floor, Room 2204, Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad,

Parkkred, Nonthaburi 11120

0-2119-2300 0-2835-3006

Chaengwattana

2

99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd

Floor, Room 2203, Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad,

Parkkred, Nonthaburi 11120

0-2119-2388 0-2119-2399

Mega Bangna 39 Moo 6 Mega Bangna 1st Floor, Room No. 1632/7 Bangna-

Trad Road, Bangkaew, Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540 02-106-7345 02-105-2070

Srinakarin 59/5 HaHa Shopping Mall, 4th Floor, Room B407-2, Srinakarin

Road, Nongbon, Pravet, Bangkok 10250 0-2014-2000 0-2014-2001

Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra, Muang, Rayong 21000 038-808-200 038-807-200

Khonkaen 26/9 2nd Floor, Moo 7, Sri Chan Mai Road, Nai Mueng,

Mueng, Khon Khaen 40000 043-334-700 043-334-799

Chonburi 55/22 Moo 1, Samed, Muang, Chonburi 20000 038-053-858 038-784-090

Chachengsao 233-232/2 Moo 2 1st Floor, Sukprayoon Road, Na Muang,

Muang Chachoengsao 24000 038-981-587 038-981-591

This Report has been prepared by Asia Wealth Securities Company Limited (”AWS”). The information in here has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but AWS makes no representation as to the accuracy and completeness of such information. AWS does not accept any liability for any loss or damage of any king arising out of the use of such information or opinions in this report. Before making your own independent decision to invest or enter into transaction, investors should study this report carefully and should review information relating. All rights reserved. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person in any manner for any purpose without permission of AWS. Investment in securities has risks. Investors are advised to consider carefully before making investment decisions.

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02-680-5000

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