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  • 1

    ICAO Secretariat briefing on available data in relation with the GIACC process

    Montreal 14th July 2008

    Presentation to GIACC 2

    Narjess Teyssier Chief Economic analyses

    and Databases Section

  • Air Transport Bureau 2

    1

    3 Fuel consumption calculation

    2 ICAO data availability status

    Background

    4 Relevancy and representativeness

    ContentsContents

    5 Dashboard sample

    6 Conclusion

  • 3

    BackgroundBackground B

    ac kg

    ro un

    d �ICAO conducts annual economic studies on airline operating economics

    �Fuel consumption regional estimations are part of them

    �Data used: OAG (only scheduled traffic)

    �In-house calculation formula developed in the nineties based on Block-hours, great circle distance and aircraft type fuel burn characteristics

    ��ICAO conducts annual economic studies on ICAO conducts annual economic studies on airline operating economicsairline operating economics

    ��Fuel consumption regional estimations are part of Fuel consumption regional estimations are part of themthem

    ��Data used: OAG (only scheduled traffic)Data used: OAG (only scheduled traffic)

    ��InIn--house calculation formula developed in the house calculation formula developed in the nineties based on Blocknineties based on Block--hours, great circle hours, great circle distance and aircraft type fuel burn characteristicsdistance and aircraft type fuel burn characteristics

  • 4

    OAG database +

    Fuel consumption formula

    OAG databaseOAG database ++

    Fuel consumptionFuel consumption formulaformula

    Different calculation axis for fuel consumption estimation

    By Equipment typeBy Equipment type

    Aircraft model Jet or Non/Jet

    Passenger Or cargo

    By Origin/Destination

    By Service category International

    By Service category Domestic or

    Dom leg of Int

    Route group Or country-pairs

    Country or city of departure

    Country of airline registration

    D at

    a

  • 5

    ICAO formula characteristics

    The formula (liters of fuel per hour) F= A+B*(L+D)^C

    �L is the distance flown (Great circle distance)

    �A, B, C & D are parameters specific to each aircraft type according to distances ranges flown (e.g. 0-200 km, 200- 900 km & >900 km)

    �Block-Hours (BH) are extracted from the OAG database provided by each airline* for every segment flown

    Fuel consumption = F*BH

    *Reflects the real airline route

    The formula (liters of fuel per hour)The formula (liters of fuel per hour) F= A+B*(L+D)^CF= A+B*(L+D)^C

    �L is the distance flown (Great circle distance)

    �A, B, C & D are parameters specific to each aircraft type according to distances ranges flown (e.g. 0-200 km, 200- 900 km & >900 km)

    �Block-Hours (BH) are extracted from the OAG database provided by each airline* for every segment flown

    Fuel consumption = F*BH

    *Reflects the real airline route

    Fo rm

    ul a

  • Air Transport Bureau 6

    Flight hours breakdown

    Scheduled

    traffic

    General

    Aviation 26% 64%

    Non-scheduled traffic

    Biz Jet

    Aviation

    4%

    6%

    ICAO model: representativenessICAO model: representativeness

    Source: ICAO ISDB, FAA, Rolls Royce

    R el

    ev an

    cy

    Fuel consumption breakdown (ICAO estimation)

    6%

    91%

    Biz Jet

    Aviation Non-scheduled traffic

    General

    Aviation

    Scheduled

    traffic

    1%

    2%

  • Air Transport Bureau 7

    Consumption for scheduled traffic only

    Total fuel burn (Tg) FAA model (AEDT/SAGE) 193.546 EUROCONTROL model (AEM) 192.766 ICAO model 187.9*

    Fuel consumption modelsFuel consumption models

    20 05

    *Weight is calculated based on the density provided by ICAO for jet fuel at 0.82 (Max range in ANNEX 16-Volume II)

    FAA & EUROCONTROL models results are based on CAEP/6 FESG inputs where 2005 basis year is taken from OAG

    R el

    ev an

    cy

  • Air Transport Bureau 8

    Fuel per ASK 2000 2003 2005

    F41 ICAO F41 ICAO F41 ICAO

    American Airlines 0.043 0.044 0.041 0.041 0.038 0.039 Continental 0.042 0.04 0.038 0.037 0.037 0.036 Delta 0.042 0.043 0.041 0.042 0.038 0.04 Northwest 0.05 0.052 0.05 0.052 0.048 0.049 United Airlines 0.041 0.041 0.035 0.04 0.043 0.042

    Total 5 0.044 0.044 0.041 0.043 0.041 0.041

    Comparison with the US dataComparison with the US data

    I n t e

    r n at

    io na

    l s eg

    m en

    t

    Average % difference cost study vs F41 < 5%

    R el

    ev an

    cy

  • Air Transport Bureau 9

    20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

    19 91

    19 92

    19 93

    19 94

    19 95

    19 96

    19 97

    19 98

    19 99

    20 00

    20 01

    20 02

    20 03

    20 04

    20 05

    Fu el

    b ur

    n

    Fuel consumed (USG) Lts per 100 RTK Lts per 100 ATK

    AAGR 1991-2005 -2.3%

    AAGR 1991-2005 -2.2% AAGR 1991-2005

    +3.2%

    Evolution of fuel consumption

    Fuel consumption and capacity evolution D

    as hb

    oa rd

    Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable

  • Air Transport Bureau 10

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    19 95

    19 96

    19 97

    19 98

    19 99

    20 00

    20 01

    20 02

    20 03

    20 04

    20 05

    20 06

    20 07

    20 08

    20 09

    20 10

    20 11

    20 12

    20 13

    20 14

    20 15

    20 16

    20 17

    20 18

    20 19

    20 20

    Fu el

    b ur

    n

    AAGR 1995-2005 -1.5% p.a.

    Fuel efficiemcy evolution and forecasts (International services)

    Fuel consumption efficiency

    Efficiency improvement

    - 30 % between 2005 and

    2020

    Source: ICAO estimation based on FESG forecasts

    D as

    hb oa

    rd

    Fuel per ASKs

  • Air Transport Bureau 11

    *By region of registration

    Regional* fuel consumption as % of the global

    1995 2005

    Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable

    1995 2005

    1995 2005

    1995 2005

    1995 2005

    1995 2005

    24% 29.3%

    2.2% 2.5%

    3.2% 4.2%

    24.7% 26%

    5.2% 4.5%

    41% 33.6%

    D as

    hb oa

    rd

  • Air Transport Bureau 12

    Fuel consumption by top twenty countries of departure Fuel consumption by top twenty countries of departure

    11 804

    11 678

    5 121

    8 611

    6 715

    18 282

    74 584

    5 354

    Country of departure

    4 953

    4 635

    3.

    4.

    8.

    5.

    6.

    2.

    1.

    7.

    9.

    10.

    United Kingdom

    Japan

    Canada

    Germany

    France

    China

    United States

    Australia

    Spain

    Russia

    3 983

    3 974

    3 556

    3 966

    3 889

    4 037

    4 038

    3 642

    Country of departure

    3 054

    2 374

    13.

    14.

    18.

    15.

    16.

    12.

    11.

    17.

    19.

    20.

    Netherland

    Italy

    India

    Thailand

    Singapore

    Korea

    United Arab Emirates

    Brazil

    Mexico

    Malaysia

    Fuel* Fuel*

    Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable *Fuel consumption expressed in millions liters

    D as

    hb oa

    rd

  • Air Transport Bureau 13

    Fuel consumption by top ten countries of airlines’ registration Fuel consumption by top ten countries of airlines’ registration

    Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable

    11 764

    10 407

    5 094

    9 995

    5 625

    20 684

    72 102

    5 196

    6 214

    3.

    4.

    10.

    5.

    8.

    2.

    1.

    9.

    7.

    United Kingdom

    Japan

    Russia

    Germany

    Singapore

    China

    United States

    Netherland

    Korea

    7 3266. France

    Fuel*Country of registration

    *Fuel consumption expressed in millions liters

    D as

    hb oa

    rd

  • 1 611

    1 111

    457

    994

    605

    2 956

    7 750

    481

    725

    3.

    4.

    10

    5.

    8.

    2.

    1.

    9.

    7.

    United Arab Emirates

    Korea

    Luxemburg

    Japan

    France

    China

    United States

    India

    Netherland

    8126. Germany

    Fuel*Cargo Services

    Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable **Including Domestic legs of International Services

    8 346

    7 088

    3 249

    6 774

    3 531

    10 611

    20 220

    3 255

    3 693

    3.

    4.

    10

    5.

    8

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