page 1 environmental trends and feasibility of goals icao secretariat
TRANSCRIPT
Page 1
Environmental Trends and Feasibility of Goals
ICAO Secretariat
Page 2
Aviation in context: contributions across Social, Economic and Environmental pillars of Sustainable Development
© ICAO 2013
Global Economy
2
Fast, reliable, and safe mode of
transport
No comparative alternatives for long
haul passenger transport
Page 3
ICAO Environmental Goals
© ICAO 2013
MitigateImplement
Limit or reduce the number of people affected by significant
aircraft noise
Limit or reduce the impact of aviation GHG emissions on
global climate
Limit or reduce the impact of aviation emissions on local air
quality
Minimize the adverse effect of global civil aviation on the environment
3
Quantify
Page 4
CAEP Noise Trends 2006 - 2036
2006 2016 2026 20360
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
Population Exposed to Aircraft Noise Above 55 dB DNL
Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
Year
To
tal
Po
pu
lati
on
Ex
po
se
d
(Mil
lio
ns
of
Pe
op
le)
Note: Population exposed relative to 2006 baseline. Population levels are assumed constant from 2006 to 2036.
© ICAO 2013
Page 5
CAEP NOx Trends (LAQ) 2006 - 2036
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Series1
Aircraft NOx Emissions Below 3,000 feet / 914 metres Above Ground Level
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Year
To
tal
Air
cra
ft N
Ox
Em
iss
ion
s
(Mil
lio
ns
of
Me
tric
To
nn
es
)
© ICAO 2013
Page 6
Historic Trend in Fuel Efficiency
© ICAO 2013
Page 7
Measuring Fuel Efficiency Changes
• ICAO CO2 Reporting and Analysis System (ICORAS)– Requested by A37– Integrates and verifies measured fuel
consumption and RTK data from States with modelled results
– For more information, see special presentation
© ICAO 2013
Page 8
CAEP International Aviation Net CO2 Emissions Trends
© ICAO 2013
Page 9
Conclusions
• Noise, LAQ, CO2 emissions expected to grow slower than demand.
• Achievement of goals requires action beyond that evaluated.
• This is challenging, but not impossible.• Important to find solution that will allow
aviation to grow sustainably and continue delivering benefits.
© ICAO 2013
Page 10
Additional information
For more information on our activities, please visit ICAO’ website: http://www.icao.int/env
© ICAO 2013