presentation of 2010 mozambique agriculture trends report...presentation of 2010 mozambique...

Presentation of 2010 Mozambique Agriculture Trends

Report2nd September 2011

VIP Hotel

Maputo, Mozambique

Setting the context: Agricultural trends in Southern Africa with reference to

Mozambique

by Dr E. Musaba

(ReSAKSS-SA, IWMI)

2 Sept 2011Maputo

Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System for Southern Africa (SAKSS-SA)

Outline of the Presentation

• Why monitor agricultural sector?• What is CAADP?• SADC RISDP• CAADP M&E Framework• ReSAKSS• Agricultural sector trends in Southern Africa• Remarks on overall performance


Why monitor agricultural sector?

• To determine whether investments made have any impacts on growth rates and on national hunger and poverty levels.

• To establish whether and how the country is progressing towards achieving its agricultural growth target, performance targets and the MDG1 target

( SADC RISDP and CAADP targets)

• To promote the culture of using evidence within national planning systems as a basis for decision making.


What is CAADP? • Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme

(CAADP).

• Formulated in 2003 under auspices of the AUC and NEPAD

• CAADP - to help African countries attain high economic growththrough agriculturally-led development

Targets of CAADP

• MDG 1 : to reduce poverty and hunger by half by 2015,

• 6 percent average annual growth in the agriculture sector

• Allocate 10 percent of national budgets to agricultural sector.


Four Pillars of CAADP

CAADP is a strategic framework to guide investments across four specific pillars, as well as investments in strengthening institutional capacity across the pillars:

1. Extending the area under sustainable land management and reliable water control systems2. Improving rural infrastructure and trade-related capacity for market access3. Increasing food supplies and reducing hunger4. Agricultural research and technology dissemination and adoption


SADC Regional Indicative Strategic Plan (RISDP)

SADC RISDP targets

• GDP growth of 7% a year.• Halving hunger between 1990 and 2015.• Doubling cropland under irrigation from 3.5% to 7% by 2015.

• Increasing fertilizer use from 44.6 kg/ha to 65Kg/ha by 2015 • Increasing cereal yield from 1392 kg/ha to 2,000 kg/ha by 2015

• Doubling the adoption rate of proven technologies (improved seed varieties, and management of water and land by 2015.

• Increasing livestock production by at least 4% annually.


CAADP M&E Framework

II. Overall Purpose of the M & E Agenda

The overall purpose of the M&E agenda is to assist CAADP and SADC to monitor and track progress in resource allocation and the achievement of stated targets in the following performance areas:

(1) enabling environment;(2) implementation process

(3) commitments and investments;(4) agricultural growth performance;(5) agricultural trade performance;(6) poverty, hunger, and food and nutrition security; and(7) investment-growth poverty linkages.

Hence assesses progress made toward achieving CAADP and SACD RISDP targets.

CAADP M&E framework has 34 indicators


ReSAKSS-SA

• Is Part of an Africa wide initiative supporting CAADP and regionally shared goals – COMESA, SADC, ECOWAS

• Provides Analysis and knowledge support for planning, review and policy dialogue for agricultural growth and poverty reduction

• 3 Sub-Regional programmes launched in Sept 2006

• ReSAKSS-SA is facilitated by IWMI and IFPRI, and steering committee chaired by SADC FANR


Agricultural trends in the context of SADC RISDP/CAADP/MDG


Human population is still largely rural based

Source: World Bank (2009)


Agriculture is most important in 7 low income countries out of 15 SADC countries (2008)



SADC wide GDP growth rates impressive since 2003, but yet to reach SADC RISDP target



…GDP growth yet to translate into reduction in poverty


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Co

ng

o,

D.R

. (2

00

5)

Sw

azi

lan

d (

20

01

)

Ma

da

ga

sca

r (2

00

9)

Zam

bia

(2

00

9)

Leso

tho

(2

00

9)

Zim

ba

bw

e (

20

09

)

Mo

zam

biq

ue

(2

00

9)

Ma

law

i (2

00

9)

Tan

zan

ia (

20

09

)

So

uth

Afr

ica

(2

00

9)

Ma

uritiu

s (2

00

9)

Na

tio

na

l po

ve

rty

he

ad

co

un

t ra

tio

(%

)


…GDP growth yet to translate into reduction in hunger

Source: von Grebmer et al. (2010)


Agriculture needs to contribute to more economic growth in order to contribute to poverty reduction


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

30001

98

0

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

Co

nst

an

t 2000 U

S$ (

bill

ion

)

Agriculture GDP Total GDP


Progress towards the 6 percent agriculture GDP CAADP growth target

Source: FAOSTAT (2010)


Average cereal yield still to reach 2000kg/ha SADC RISDP target



…cereal production has been failing to match population growth in the region over the last decades



Net importer of cereals



Net importer of key livestock products (e.g. cattle meat)



Fertilizer consumption yet to achieve SADC RISDP target of 65kg/ha



Progress towards the SADC RISDP target of 7 percent of area under irrigation

SADC RISDP target 7% area under irrigation by 2015

Source: SADC (2008)


Overall Performance

• Contribution of agriculture to total GDP varies across SADC countries:

….agriculture remains the region’s driver of economic development particularly among low income countries

• Varied progress towards meeting set targets: however most targets are yet to be met

• Maputo declaration, CAADP AgGDP growth rates, Cereal yields, Fertilizer use, Etc.

• Decline in poverty since 1990 marginal


• Future Outlook:

• AgGDP: Some countries are on track to meeting the CAADP 6 percent annual AgGDP growth target, namely Angola, Mozambique other are not

• Poverty: most SADC countries are off-track to reaching the MDG1 target of halving 1990 poverty rates by 2015

• There is mixed progress in meeting both goals of MDG1 – Poverty and Hunger : Mozambique is no exception

• Challenges:

– stabilizing and enhancing agricultural growth rates

– increasing budget allocations to the sector and identification of policy and investment options

– Increasing agricultural productivity (e.g. Irrigation, Fertiliser use etc.)

– Translating agriculture and total economic growth into poverty reduction

Overall Performance

presentation of 2010 mozambique agriculture trends report...presentation of 2010 mozambique...

Documents