presentation november 2006
DESCRIPTION
Presentation November 2006. Contents. Investment highlights. Business overview and financial highlights. Appendix – Macroeconomic overview of Kazakhstan. Strong growth propelled Alliance Bank into Kazakhstan’s top tier bank group. Total assets. Time deposits. Loan portfolio. USD mm. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Presentation
November 2006
2
Contents
Business overview and financial highlights
Investment highlights
Appendix – Macroeconomic overview of Kazakhstan
3
4 635
5 281
6 271
10 828
11 350
4 044Bank
CenterCredit
ATF Bank
Halyk Bank
Kazkommerzbank
Bank TuranAlem
Total assetsTotal assets
Total capitalTotal capital
Time depositsTime deposits
Retail time depositsRetail time deposits Retail loan portfolioRetail loan portfolio
Loan portfolioLoan portfolio
2 969
3 868
4 117
7 465
8 815
2 704Bank
CenterCredit
ATF Bank
Halyk Bank
Bank TuranAlem
Kazkommerzbank
350
637
807
988
394
273Bank
CenterCredit
ATF Bank
Halyk Bank
Kazkommerzbank
Bank TuranAlem
1 075
1 082
2 007
2 229
2 898
1 045ATF Bank
BankCenterCredit
Kazkommerzbank
Bank TuranAlem
Halyk Bank
938
1 300
1 324
1 708
1 880
781ATF Bank
BankCenterCredit
Kazkommerzbank
Bank TuranAlem
Halyk Bank
547
633
841
1 057
1 086
302ATF Bank
BankCenterCredit
Kazkommerzbank
Halyk Bank
Bank TuranAlem
Source: Published unaudited financial statements (in accordance with Kazakhstan Accounting Standards) as at 30 September 20061 USD = KZT 127.22, as at 30 September 2006
ALB
ALB
ALB
ALB
ALB
ALB
USD mm
Banking sector total: 51,706
Banking sector total: 9,802Banking sector total: 5,585Banking sector total: 4,914
Banking sector total: 13,030 Banking sector total: 35,328
Market share
Market shareMarket shareMarket share
Market share Market share
21.9%
10.2%
20.9%
12,1%
9.0%
7.8%
22.2%
8.3%
17.1%
15.4%
8.2%
8.0%
25.0%
11.0%
21.2%
11.7%
8.4%
7.7%
20.1%
7.1%
16.4%
13.0%
8.0%
5.6%
20.7%
9.8%
19.1%
17.0%
12.4%
5.8%
17.4%
19.2%
13.3%
13.5%
9.6%
8.0%
USD mm USD mm
USD mm USD mm USD mm
* Excluding Development Bank of Kazakhstan
Strong growth propelled Alliance Bank into Kazakhstan’s top tier bank group
4
Contents
Business overview and financial highlights
Investment highlights
Appendix – Macroeconomic overview of Kazakhstan
5
Expansion of ALB’s client baseExpansion of ALB’s client base
The success is driven by a clearly defined strategy focusing on an innovative retail banking franchise
Corp
ora
teB
an
kin
g
Corp
ora
teB
an
kin
g
Non-interest income generating business
Flexible pricing Advanced financial products Cross-selling of corporate
finance services and products
SM
Es
SM
Es
ALB’s historical niche/focus Quantitative creditworthiness assessment methods based on scoring Leveraging strong position in regions Cooperation with EBRD
Reta
il
Ban
kin
g
Reta
il
Ban
kin
g Widest distribution network, including channels developed through
partnerships Highest margin opportunities Consumer finance is driver of retail growth Focus on market share gains through innovation Loan approval procedure based on an innovative scoring system
38.8 71.8216.9
933.8
3.75.9
12.7
8.9
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2003 2004 2005 30 September2006
Corporate (incl. SME)
Retail
‘000
Source: Alliance
6
9 9 16 2116 2556
176
050
100150
200
2003 2004 2005 2006E
Branches Cash centers
Numbers of branches and cash centresNumbers of branches and cash centresBranches and cash centres of ALB
Cash centres of ALB
Planed branches of ALB
The strength of ALB’s business is underpinned by the continued expansion of the Bank’s own distribution network
As of 30 September 2006, Alliance has 19 branches and 135 cash centres.
7
The extensive branch network is complemented by a successful strategic partnership with Kazpost JSC
In 2004, ALB entered into a strategic alliance with Kazpost – national post monopoly
– Kazpost’s 4,000 outlets provide the widest country coverage (compared to 600 outlets of the widest banking network)
– To date, the Kazpost programme has generated approximately USD 292mm in loan and advances through more than 180,000 loans (incl. USD 234.9mm as of 30 September 2006)
Opportunity to offer products (deposit taking and lending services) in remote locations without costly overhead
Access to rural areas (i.e. more than 40% of the population)
Important first mover advantage due to considerable barriers to entry
Commission based cooperation
0
5
10
15
20
25
Oct
'04
Nov
'04
Dec
'04
Jan
'05
Feb
'05
Mar
'05
Apr
'05
May
'05
Jun
'05
Jul '
05A
ug '0
5S
ep '0
5O
ct '0
5N
ov '0
5D
ec '0
5Ja
n'06
Feb
'06
Mar
ch'
Apr
'06
May
'06
Jun'
06Ju
l'06
Aug
'06
Sep
'06
Loan
s g
rant
ed (
000)
05
1015
2025
3035
US
D (m
illions)
Number of loans Amount
Kazpost’s share in ALB’s retail lending portfolio as at 30 September 2006 Kazpost’s share in ALB’s retail lending portfolio as at 30 September 2006
Monthly lending volumes through Kazpost JSCMonthly lending volumes through Kazpost JSC
86.3%
13.7%
Retail loan portfolio Lending through Kazpost
Source for both graphs: Alliance
Source: Alliance
8
The partnership with distribution partners and an innovative product range further illustrate Alliance Bank’s leadership
Composition of originators of express loans illustrates the importance of financial agents as of 30 September 2006
Composition of originators of express loans illustrates the importance of financial agents as of 30 September 2006
Credit brokers
49%
Trade partners
7%
Kazpost20%
Alliance Bank
network24%
As of 30 September 2006, retail “Express” loans amounted to 63% of the retail loan portfolio
Volume of loans issued through credit brokers totalled USD 271mm
Clients pay a flat fee of 9.0% to the agents
– The agents keep 2.5% – 3.0%
Based on the positive experience with Kazporst, ALB started using similar arrangements with credit brokers for distribution of retail and SME loans
Current cooperation with 15 credit brokers increases ALB’s distribution network by over 1,000 outlets, of which six are affiliated
Approximately 1,500 partnership arrangements with major retailers of furniture, household appliance, universal trade houses, mobile phones, consumer electronics and car dealers (trade partners)
1,000
1,452
4,000
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Credit brokers Trade partners Kazpost
Total number of ALB’s trade outlets reached nearly 6,500 as of 30 Sept 2006 Total number of ALB’s trade outlets reached nearly 6,500 as of 30 Sept 2006
Source: Alliance
Source: Alliance
9
ALB is the second bank in Kazakhstan to issue chip payment cards
Principle membership of MasterCard ALB will focus on credit cards issued to customers
who have successfully repaid cash loans Upgraded from an Associated to a Principal VISA
Member
The issuance of payment cards is another prospective trend of Alliance Bank’s retail business
ALB payment card issuance since launch of the card project in March 2004
ALB payment card issuance since launch of the card project in March 2004
ATM network strategyATM network strategy
1 7804 433
8 200
16 891
43 449
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
1H2004 2004 1H2005 2005 30 Sept.2006
Payment cards development planPayment cards development plan
ALB started establishing its own ATM network at the beginning of 2006
ALB intends to increase the number of its own ATMs up to 800 by 2007
Establishment of loan limits for salary projects
Access to card account by means of Internet and telephone communications
Establishment of a discount system, allowing cross-selling with retailers
Introduction of new card system Compass Plus
By the end of 2006, ALB plans to start distributing American Express Cards
– Will address demands of Kazakhstan’s highest net worth individuals
Source: Alliance
10
Alliance Bank’s impressive overall growth is financed by a very supportive shareholder
Largest private equity investor in Kazakhstan founded in 1991 and currently focusing on financial markets (ALB, Alliance Policy, Alliance Leasing)
Annual turnover of more than USD 1,000mm
On 25 February 2006, the FMSA has approved Seimar’s request for obtaining Banking Holding status
Seimar plans to further increase its stake in ALB
71,2%
2,9%
6,4%
19,5%
Minority portfolio investors
SeimarAlliance Financial Corporation
Management
Free float – Central Depositary
ofSecurities
Seimar Alliance Financial CorporationSeimar Alliance Financial Corporation
Shareholder structure as of 30 September 2006 (voting common shares)Shareholder structure as of 30 September 2006 (voting common shares)
Shareholder support comes in form of strong capitalisation of the BankShareholder support comes in form of strong capitalisation of the Bank
Related party lending is lowRelated party lending is low
15%
9%
18%
12%
3% 3% 3% 3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept 2006
Loans to related parties (%) shareholders' equityLoans to related parties (%) loan portfolio
350
245
152
37
10,2%
21,7%
11,1%9,0%
14,8%
27,1%
13,3%
13,0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept 20060%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Total capital BIS Tier 1 CAR (%) BIS Total CAR (%)
USD mm
Note: According to BIS
*
*
*Unaudited, according KAS
*Unaudited, according KAS
*
11
5,1%
2,4%
6,6%
2,8% 18,4%
2,7%
35,1%
26,9%
Due to fin. instit.
Current accounts/customers deposits
Local bonds
Eurobonds
P erpetual bonds
Shareholders' equity
Repo securities
Other (incl. due to NBK, due to IFI)
Concentration declines as number of deposits growsConcentration declines as number of deposits grows
Sources of funding are well balanced
Funding mix 30 September 2006Funding mix 30 September 2006
167300
607
68
21,0%29,0%
6,2%
16,0%
0100200300400500600700
2003 2004 2005 30Sept 2006-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%
Retail deposits
Top 10 depositors (% of total liabilities)
307
622
893
15510761
34315160
189
177
84
54
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
2003 2004 2005 30Sept. 2006
Foreign currency time depositsKZT time depositsForeign currency demand depositsKZT demand deposits
Growth of the deposit base by currencyGrowth of the deposit base by currency
USD mmUSD mm
Note: (incl. demand deposits) Breakdown of international borrowing – 30 September 2006Breakdown of international borrowing – 30 September 2006
3,3%
9,3%
48%
31,4%
3,4% 4,8%Due to I FO
Perpetuals
Eurobonds
I nterbanks
Syndicated loans
REPO operations
*Unaudited, according KAS*Unaudited, according KAS
*
*
*Unaudited, according KAS*Unaudited, according KAS
12
Alliance Bank’s market share gains have been driven by growth in lending
12,7%
23,7%
18,5% 18,0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept. 2006
197 370
1 346
323831
3 868
2 488
5 281
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept. 2006Loan portfolio Total assets
Loan portfolio concentration–Top 10 borrowers as % of the total loan portfolioLoan portfolio concentration–Top 10 borrowers as % of the total loan portfolio
Strong loan portfolio and assets growth Strong loan portfolio and assets growth Growing exposure to retail borrowers leads to further diversificationGrowing exposure to retail borrowers leads to further diversification
47 38 26 25
4445
4730
9 17 2745
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept.2006
Corporate customers SMEs Retail customers
Loan portfolio sectoral diversificationLoan portfolio sectoral diversification
1.1%
1.6%
6,4%
4,9%
2,70%
3,20%
2,20%
8,80%
10,40%
45,30%
14,70%
IndividualsConstructionWholesaleServicesReal estate
IndustryTransportationOtherRetail tradeAgricultureFinancial leasing
USD mm
*Unaudited, according KAS*Unaudited, according KAS
*Unaudited, according KAS*Unaudited, according KAS
*
*
*
13
Momentum of Alliance Bank’s growth comes from the dynamic retail banking business
1 880
19 79415
19%
8%
3%2%
0
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept 2006
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Retail loans Retail loan market share (%) *
547
66 160283
9,8%
7,7%
5,6%
3,4%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept 20060%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Retail time deposits Retail deposit market share (%) *
Rapidly growing loan portfolioRapidly growing loan portfolio
* In accordance with KAS (unaudited)
Retail time deposits are also becoming significantly more importantRetail time deposits are also becoming significantly more important
Dynamics of ALB’s market share gains in retail lending are unmatched by its competitors *Dynamics of ALB’s market share gains in retail lending are unmatched by its competitors *
USD mm USD mm
*
Position USD mm Market share, %
2003 2004 200530 Sept
2006 Bank 2003 2004 200530 Sept
2006 2003 2004 200530 Sept
2006
Banking system 844.7 2 343.8 5 028.7 9,801.6 100 100 100 100
10 8 5 1 ALB 22.5 78.6 415.4 1 879.9 2.3 3.4 8.3 19.2
2 3 1 1 Halyk Bank 148.3 543.8 1 203.6 1 708.3 17.6 23.0 24.0 17.4
1 1 2 3 Kazkommerzbank 219.2 569.3 893.1 1 323.9 26.0 24.3 17.8 13.5
2 2 3 4 Bank TuranAlem 155.6 363.1 649.3 1 300.0 18.4 15.5 12.9 13.3
4 4 4 5 Bank CenterCredit 78.1 156.4 526.3 938.0 7.7 6.9 7.4 9.6
5 4 6 6 ATF Bank 65 162.7 373.7 780.5 2.7 4.6 6.5 8.0
14
In June 2006, ALB started to insure express loans using an innovative modelIn June 2006, ALB started to insure express loans using an innovative model
Most emphasis is placed on the criteria based on the data obtained from database of the SPPC:− Employment− Change of employer during last year
Frequency of pension contributions and the following data is calculated:− Average monthly salary− Ratio of revenue (confirmed) to requested loan
amount− Maximum allowable loan amount
Bank
Client Collector bureau
Insurancecompany
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
ALB grants loan to client
ALB simultaneously insures loans at insurance company with one-time commission of 5%
Insurance company, in case of overdue, pays client’s principal debt with accrued interest and accepts right to demand from client
Insurance company applies to an independent collector bureau to return uncollected debt
Credit issue procedures through distribution channelsCredit issue procedures through distribution channels
Credit broker ALB
Opening of electronic application
Positive decision
Automatic documents composition: Bank loan agreement, repayment
schedule…
Refusal
Documents stamping, Client signing
Approval of application
Transfer of client’s file
Loan granting
Automatic cash transfer to client’s account
Application analysis on the basis of scoring
Unique consumer finance model helps to manage quality and growth of the retail loan portfolio
Consumer finance scoring model is, unlike in Russia, based on confirmed income (through State Pension Payments Center)
Consumer finance scoring model is, unlike in Russia, based on confirmed income (through State Pension Payments Center)
15
The SME market is Alliance Bank’s historic niche
Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan
8%
7%
39%
18%27%
Services Other Trade Construction Production
633
1160
94 185
5%8%
15%
21%
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept. 2006
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
ALB's loans to SMEs ALB's SME loans market share (%) *
Loans to SMEs in KazakhstanLoans to SMEs in Kazakhstan
1,4 1,6 1,9 2,1 2,2 2,4 2,8 3,1 3,6 4,1 4,4 5,10,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1
0,60,7
1,01,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
J an-04
Apr-04
J ul-04
Oct-04
J an-05
Apr-05
J ul-05
Oct-05
J an-06
Apr-06
May-06
Sept-06
SME Entrepreneurs
ALB’s loans to SMEs by sector as at 30 September 2006ALB’s loans to SMEs by sector as at 30 September 2006
USD bn
USD mm
ALB continues to command a leading position in SME financingsALB continues to command a leading position in SME financings
SMEs are benefiting from supportive macroeconomic environment and demand for services
There are approximately 460,000 registered SMEs SMEs have been most active in wholesale and
retail trade, services and agricultural sectors As at 30 September, 2006,168,130 small legal
entities were registered in Kazakhstan Of which 48,739 were active, Employed 551,982 people, and Generated net revenues of $1.3billion in 2005
At the end of September 30, 2006, SMEs accounted or 30% of ALB’s loan portfolio (20.7% market share)
Start-up/expansion financing to SMEs (generally from $50k up to $3mm)
* In accordance with KAS (unaudited)
16
25,6
49,6
8,46,2
66.1
010203040506070
2003 2004 2005 30Sept2006
Although the principal focus of corporate banking is on the SME sector, Alliance Bank has a number of important corporate clients
Client base primarily includes companies, “upgraded” from SMEs
Major source for non-interest income and deposit taking synergies
Large national companies (”blue chips”) among clients
Minimal dependence on oil-related industries
ALB’s growing balance sheet increases its capability to fund larger corporate projects
Full range of products (“One-package credit solutions”):– Leasing– Receivables financing– Commercial paper (primary and
secondary discounting) – Sophisticated investment projects
(structuring and financing) – Structured finance (including pre-export
and post-financing with international counterparts) and acquisition finance
350
967
100 1560
200
400
600
800
1 000
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept.2006
Loans to corporatesLoans to corporates
Non-interest income from corporate clientsNon-interest income from corporate clients
*
*Annualized
USD mm
USD mm
17
Despite high growth, the quality of the loan portfolio continues to improve
Loan portfolio classificationLoan portfolio classification
Weight of overdue
loan amount in each
loan portfolio
Average interest rates, % p.a.
Retail 0.6 25
SME loans 0.4 15
Corporate 1.0 13
Retail and SME’s loans provide strong profitability with low overdue amounts as at 30 September 2006
Retail and SME’s loans provide strong profitability with low overdue amounts as at 30 September 2006
•Increasing ratio of standard loans has resulted from increasing insurance of express loans
•Overdue loan amount is calculated on the outstanding dues on loans (starting from the 1st day of delinquency)
•Classified loans differ from overdue by its approach/method of calculation
69,7%
24,2%
2,3%
2,3%
65,2%
36,0%
1,8%
0,5%
1,6%
1,6%
72,9%
22,6%
1,5%
1,1%
2,0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Standard
Sub-Standard
Unsatisfactory
Doubtful
Loss 2004 2005 30 Sept 2006
18
Improving loan quality allows for lower provisioning
3,70%3,30%
1,27%0,80%0,9%
0,6%
0,0% 0,1%
4,6% 4,2%4,8%
4,1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept 2006
Overdue loans % gross loans Net written-off loans % gross loans
Provisions % gross loans (excl. accrued interest income)
•Sharp decline in NPLs from 4% to 2.4% and write-offs from 0.9% to 0.1% between 2003 and June 30, 2006 was a result of the new, risk oriented policies of ALB
•Provisions /NPLs comprises 176%
•According to Kazakhstan Accounting Standards, NPLs are calculated on non-accrual loans (“blocked loans”) starting from 30th day of delinquency
19
Interest rates in retailInterest rates in retail Banking sector average lending marginsBanking sector average lending margins
Interest rates in corporate and SMEInterest rates in corporate and SME
4,8% 4,6%
3,7%
7,0%
1,7%
1,7%
2,3%
0,5%0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept. 2006
Net interest margin
Net interest income as % of averageinterest earning assets
Net interest marginNet interest margin
Focus on retail and SME businesses ensures high margins ...
*
* Annualized
*
Note: “SecA” stands for Kazakhstan’s banking sector average Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan for SecA, Alliance for ALB
Source: Alliance
Source: Alliance
12,9%
7,4%
12,5% 12,6%11,8%
14,7%13,0% 12,5%
13,2%
6,8%6,4%
7,8%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
2003 2004 2005 30Sept2006Average interest on corporate loans
Average interest on SME loans
Average interest on time deposits of legal entities
9,6%
25,0%
18,3% 17,6%19,2%
8,2%10,1%10,4%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2003 2004 2005 30Sept2006
Average interest on retail loans
Average interest on retail timedeposits
20
37,0
12,05,8
1,40
10
20
30
40
50
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept. 2006
... and improved profitability, particularly this year
ALB’s profitability continues to growALB’s profitability continues to grow
Non-interest income grew steadilyNon-interest income grew steadily Net incomeNet income
29%
52% 51%
40%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept. 2006
Cost / income ratio Cost / income ratio
Period of high expansionary investments is almost over, which should further enhance profitability
* Annualized
71,0
132,2
350,0
6,6 11,3 35,446,6
28.0
04080
120160200240280320360400440
2003 2004 2005 30 Sept. 2006
Interest income
Non-interest income
USD mm USD mm
* Annualized
49,3*
21
Contents
Business overview and financial highlights
Investment highlights
Appendix – Macroeconomic overview of Kazakhstan
22
Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic indicators compare favorably with similarly rated peers
Real GDP growth is well above the median level of BBB peersReal GDP growth is well above the median level of BBB peers
Low levels of general government debtLow levels of general government debt
0
2
4
6
8
10
Kazakhstan(BBB-)
BBBMedian
Romania(BBB-)
Russia(BBB)
Croatia(BBB)
Bulgaria(BBB)
Tunisia(BBB)
Mexico(BBB)
2004 2006F 2008F
0
15
30
45
60
75
Kazakhstan(BBB-)
BBBMedian
Romania(BBB-)
Russia(BBB)
Croatia(BBB)
Bulgaria(BBB)
Tunisia(BBB)
Mexico(BBB)
2004 2006F 2008F
A surplus of 5% of GDP is expected in 2006, while the median surplus of peers is 0.2%A surplus of 5% of GDP is expected in 2006, while the median surplus of peers is 0.2%
The economic growth of Kazakhstan is significantly more robust than most similarly rated economies with strong growth forecasts to augment them
Kazakhstan’s low general external debt and its net public sector external position compare favorably with its BBB peers
The political liberalization process is also now in place making the situation more comparable with its peers and allowing for greater expectations of political stability
Source: Standard and Poor’s research dated July 11, 2006“F” refers to S&P forecasts
A compelling growth storyA compelling growth story
% %
% of GDP
23
Economic indicators point towards strong future performance
Macroeconomic forecastsMacroeconomic forecasts
Exports are expected to expand through the diversification of the pipeline network through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline
Non-oil private sector could get a boost through the removal of trade impediments and accession to the WTO
Despite rising inflation pressures, the government expects inflation to be below 8.5% in 2006
Source: S&P and Asian Development Bank Outlook 2006
Inflation remains stable despite increasing investments and growing savingsInflation remains stable despite increasing investments and growing savings
* Values indexed to the 2003 level
5.5%3.3%
9.0%8.4%
6.9%7.7%7.9%5.7%
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2003 2004 20050.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Investments (% of GDP )*
Savings (% of GDP )*
Inflation
* Values indexed to the 2003 level
Demand (% of GDP)
Performance of Kazakhstan Mortgage Company’s KTZ 9.29% bond due 2009Performance of Kazakhstan Mortgage Company’s KTZ 9.29% bond due 2009Indicative KZT-swap curve (as of Sep 5, 2006)Indicative KZT-swap curve (as of Sep 5, 2006)
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11Years
30-Jun-06
4.75%5.00%
5.25%5.40%
5.50% 5.70% 5.80%
24
Rising exports, growing reserves and an appreciating currency, together signal growth
115
125
135
145
155
165
J an-00 Feb-01 Mar-02 Apr-03 J un-04 J ul-05 Aug-06
Source: Bloomberg
The Kazakh Tenge has seen a steady appreciation against the USD since 2003The Kazakh Tenge has seen a steady appreciation against the USD since 2003
0
100
200
300
400
500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Exports, USD million*Imports, USD million*
* Values indexed to the 2001 level
Soaring exports and reserves provide stability Soaring exports and reserves provide stability
Draft budget of 2007, envisages a reduction of budgetary spending
The draft budget also expects a KZT/USD rate of 117 for 2007
Recent KZT depreciation was driven by the National Bank’s conversion of KZT tax receipts
Kazyna Sustainable Development Fund will seek to develop non-commodity sectors by allocating approximately USD 3.5bn to support sectors like IT, bio-energy, petrochemicals and hydroelectricity over the next 3-years
National Fund FX reserves can be turned into KZT
0
4 000
8 000
12 000
16 000
National fund reserves
National foreign exchange and gold reserves
USD mm
KTZ/USD
25
Contact Information
Ms. Almira Akhmetkarimova
Managing Director, International RelationsTel.:+ 7 (3272) 584 040 (ext. 1033)Direct: +7 (3272) 448 411Fax: + 7 (3272) 596 787E-mail: [email protected]
[email protected]+ 7 (3272) 448 410
www.alb.kz