présentation du dernier rapport du club de rome « le grand pillage »
TRANSCRIPT
Limits to Growth and Mineral ResourcesUgo Bardi
University of Florence, Department of Earth SciencesThe Club of Rome
You can solve a problem, but you cannot solve a change
(especially if it is an irreversible change)
Diamond mine of Mir, Siberia
"The Hope Diamond - SIA" by Unknown - http://siarchives.si.edu/collections/siris_sic_8819. Licensed under Public Domain via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:The_Hope_Diamond_-_SIA.jpg#/media/File:The_Hope_Diamond_-_SIA.jpg
Rosia Montana gold mine, Romania
Gold extraction costs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Native_gold_nuggets.jpg
Depletion: as you eat the cake, it becomes less and less tasty
Net Energy: the concept of EROEI
Hall and Day, 2009
EROEI
Image from “Fantazzini et al, 2011http://energyskeptic.com/2015/global-oil-risks-in-the-early-21st-century-energy-policy-2011/financialsense.org”
Source: Ron Patterson: peak oil barrelhttp://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/World2.jpg
Crude oil + condensate
World oil production
Dati ASPO (2008)
The Limits to Growth, 1972
World3 calculations 2004
Irreversibility: once you eat the cake, you don't have it any more
Solar energy arriving to the earth surface 87,000 TW
Human generated primary energy from fossil fuels 15 TW
Total greenhouse forcing 1500 TW
Global warming: a few numbers
100 + 1 kW heaters per person
Archer et al. 2005
Irreversibility: persistence of CO2 in atmosphere
Unpropaganda: the other side of propaganda
Reversibility: With energy, almost any feat is possible....... W.S. Jevons
Synthetic diamonds
35
Energiewende
Energy in truth stands not beside but entirely above all other commodities.... With energy almost any feat is possible or easy; without it we are thrown back into the laborious poverty of early times.
William Stanley Jevons, 1866
Sgouridis, Bardi, Csala, http://arxiv.org/abs/1503.06832
The great sustainable transition
As a man himself sows, so he himself reaps... The fruit is of the same quality as the action.
—Mahabharata, xii.291.22
Whoever sows sparingly will also reap sparingly, and whoever sows bountifully will also reap bountifully.
Corinthians 9:6
The Sower's Strategy:Using today's Energy for the energy of tomorrow
40
Substituting, recycling, reusing.....