presentation at fifth power dinner, marketing in indonesia...

Presentation at Fifth Power Dinner, Marketing in Indonesia 2008 Update: Challenges and Opportunities, Jakarta, 24 July 2008

3 Observasi1

1. Observasi 1 - Perekonomian Indoensia sedang bangkit kembali

2. Observasi 2 - Faktor Lingkungan Global 2008-1009 yang Menuju Stagflasi

3. Observasi 3 - Ancaman inflasi di Indonesia bangkit kembali

Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008

Observasi 1

- Dengan disertai gelombang Reformasi sejak medio 1998; yang menggelontorkanarus besar Demokratisasi dan Desentralisasi, perekonomian Indonesia bangkitkembali. Peristiwa itu ditandai oleh semakin kuatnya peranan PDB dan exporNon-Migas serta kontribusi perekonomian daerah-daerah produsen/exportirkomoditi-komoditi Non-Migas.

- Reformasi besar di Sektor Perbankan dan Keuangan telah kembali memperkuatperanan lembaga perbankan, yang kali ini disertai oleh peningkatan perananBEI.

- Bersama kesemua perubahan mendasar tersebut dana dari luar negeri (capital inflow) masuk, baik di dalam bentuk Portfolio – maupun Direct Foreign Investment.

2


Pertumbuhan Ekonomi bangkit kembali Indonesia setelahKrisis Multidimensi, dipicu oleh Sektor-Sektor Non-Migas

0.9

4.9

3.64.5 4.8 5

5.7 5.66.3 6.4

1

5.3 4.9

3.2

5.7 66.6

6.16.9 6.8

-6-5-4-3-2-1012345678

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (%/tahun)1998-2008

PDB Total PDB Non Migas-14 %

**

-13%

3

Kabinet Gotong-Royong


TREND (%) CHANGE (%)03-07 2007

1 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 (7:6)

A. EX P ORT 61,058.2 71,584.6 85,660.0 100,798.6 113,993.1 17.24 13.091. O IL & GA S 13,651.4 15,645.3 19,231.6 21,209.5 22,055.9 13.47 3.992. NON OIL & GA S 47,406.8 55,939.3 66,428.4 79,589.1 91,937.2 18.26 15.51

B. IM P ORT 32,550.7 46,524.5 57,700.9 61,065.5 74,206.7 21.17 21.521. O IL & GA S 7,610.9 11,732.0 17,457.7 18,962.9 21,879.6 29.59 15.382. NON OIL & GA S 24,939.8 34,792.5 40,243.2 42,102.6 52,327.1 18.21 24.28

C. TOTAL 93,608.9 118,109.1 143,360.8 161,864.1 188,199.8 18.67 16.271. O IL & GA S 21,262.3 27,377.3 36,689.3 40,172.4 43,935.5 20.14 9.372. NON OIL & GA S 72,346.6 90,731.8 106,671.6 121,691.7 144,264.3 18.22 18.55

D. BALANCE 28,507.5 25,060.1 27,959.1 39,733.1 39,786.4 11.94 0.131. O IL & GA S 6,040.5 3,913.3 1,773.9 2,246.6 176.3 -53.34 -92.152. NON OIL & GA S 22,467.0 21,146.8 26,185.1 37,486.5 39,414.1 18.49 5.14

2004 20072005 20062003

Indonesia Trade Balance 2003-2007 (US$ Million. %)

Source: Central Bureau of Statistics

Laju pertumbuhan expor non-migas telah semakin cepat4

(didukung oleh kebangkitan basis-basis produksi di daerah-daerah, selain oleh semakinkuatnya permintaan global akan komoditi dan kenaikan harga-harga komoditi)


Ikhtisar Ekonomi Makro Ekonomi Indonesia : 2001-2007

No Indikator Ekonomi 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1)

1 Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (%) 3.6 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.7 5.5 6.3 ‐ Non Migas 4.9 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.6 6.1 6.9

2 Inflasi (%) 12.5 10 5.1 6.4 17.1 6.6 6.73 SBI rate % (3bulan) 17.63 13.02 8.31 7.43 12.75 9.75 84 Nilai Tukar Rupiah (Rp/USD) 10256 9318 8593 8940 9713 9050 91305 Sektor Eksternal ‐ Cadangan Devisa (USD milyar) 28 32 36.6 36.3 34.7 42.6 56.9 ‐ Transaksi Berjalan (% thd PDB) 4.2 3.9 3.4 1.2 0.1 2.7 2.6

7 Defisit Anggaran (% thd PDB) 2.4 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.9 1.28 Utang Pemerintah (% thd PDB) 75.3 63.9 57.4 55.5 46.5 39.2 35.59 Utang Luar Negeri‐ % thd PDB 81.0 66.5 56.8 53.8 46.5 35.2 32.7‐ Debt Service Ratio (% thd ekspor) 41.4 33.1 32.3 27.1 17.3 24.8 21.5

10 Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (%) 8.1 9.1 9.7 9.9 11.2 10.3 9.111 Tingkat Kemiskinan (%) 18.2 17.4 17.4 16.7 16.0 17.8 16.6

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Kabinet Gotong-RoyongProf. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti 7/23/2008

6

Coping with Capital Flows: Indonesia ExperienceIndonesian Economy Better Set to Mitigate External Shock…

Indicator 1997/1998 2007

Economic Resiliency

Exchange Rate Managed Float Flexible (Free Float)Monetary Policy Framework Multiple Targeting Inflation TargetingForeign Exchange Reserves March 1998: USD 16,4M April 2007: USD 49,3 M

Sustainability indicator:•Debt/GDP•Short Term Debt/Reserve•Reserves/Foreign Port. Inv.

Fragile•151.2%•138.0%•July 1997: 1,38

More Stable•34.4%•44,0%•April 2007: 1,97

Fiscal Policy FrameworkFiscal Balance

More prudent, reflected in the surplus of the overall balance1996/1997: 1,81997/1998: 2,2

More balance: between fiscal sustainability and economic stimulus2006: -1,02007: -1,8

InstitutionalInflow Characteristic

Not ProvidedTo increase credit, creating inflationary pressure

BetterLimited in financial sector

Banking Sector Resiliency

Banking Indicators: Banking main indicators in 2007 are better than in 1997: improving capital position is sufficient to absorb any potential shock, better credit quality, and improving profitability•CAR: 9.2%, NPL Gross: 8.3%, ROA: 1.4% •CAR: 21.2%, NPL Gross: 6.7%, ROA: 2.7%

Banking Management • Inadequate risk management•Lots of violation done in Legal Lending Limit (Batas Maksimum Pemberian Kredit/BMPK)

•Risk management function is a must•There is almost no violation in Legal Lending Limit

Infrastructure Development •Not established Established* Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (Lembaga PenjaminSimpana/LPS), Good Corporate Governance regulator, JPSK,API)

Capital Market Resiliency

Bond and Equity Market Liquidity

Lack of liquidity:•Market capitalization: Rp. 223 trillion •Bonds trading volume: Rp. 5,3 trillion, trading frequency: 1,49 •Mutual funds NAV: Rp 4 trillion

Adequate liquidity•Market capitalization: Rp. 1.443 trillion (May-07)•Bonds trading volume: Rp. 815 trillion (Mar-07), trading frequency: 35.000•Mutual funds Nav: Rp. 62 trillion (May-07)

Sistem Moneter Indonesia semakin menguat


Observasi 2

- Berhimpunya kemelut “sub-prime” yang memicu kesulitan perkreditan (credit crunch), dengan

- Depresiasi USD yang tajam serta terlalu cepat, serta

- Merosotnya “corporate profitability”, yang diakibatkan oleh “higher financing cost/rising materials cost/rising energy cost”

telah memicu kemerosotan consumer confidence dan kekahawatiran (fear) akan terjadinya

resesi global

- Per medio 2008 ini makin tampak bahwa bahaya yang ada

- bukan RECESSION,

- melainkan SLOWDOWN,

- dengan kemungkinan terjadinya “significant and protracted growth slowdown” (Worst Scenario)

7


- SLOWDOWN is more linkely because of:

- faster policy response

- continuing capital inflow to US

US continues to be able to offer a wide array of assets, with unbeatable risk-adjusted returns

- flexibility and dynamism of US financial system

- Worst Scenario:

significant and protracted growth slowdown

8


RECESSION- negative real GDP growth for two

consecutive quarters or longer

SLOWDOWN- real GDP growth is maintained albeit

at a lower rate than previously

US ECONOMY 2008-2009

9


a point to remember- in the last 25 years the US has

suffered only 2 recessions - both were short and mild

real GDP growth

short & shallow U-curve

O t

businesses are nervous of the possibilities of:1. long & shallow recession,2. double-dip slowdown,

3. a sharp recession, or4. Japan type L-sharp “lost decade”

slowdown

- both the 1990-1991 and 2001 recession lasted only 8 months

real GDP growth

O t

real GDP growth

O t

10


Fear - the world economy proves to be less resilient than now seems likely

- commodity producers/exporters still depend – even though at a

lesser degree than previously – on US demand

- continuing weak USD forced pegged currencies to appreciate vis a

vis USD

- populism and protectionism rising in the G-8

- the spread of global inflation

- uncertainty with regard to the likely extent and the cost it will impose

in the short-term

Observasi 3

- Sebagai pengimpor Minyak Bumi dan BBM yang menghadapi potensi kenaikanimpor yang berkepanjangan di masa depan, gejolak peningkatan harga-hargakedua komoditi tersebut menimbulkan ancaman inflasi. Hal itu akan tampak padabaik “Headline Inflation”, “Core Inflation”, maupun “Producer price inflation”, yang kesemuanya akan menimbulkan “liquidity risk” (downside risk)

- Kebijakan menaikan harga BBM yang dilakukan secara “gebrakan” berpotensimenimbulkan gejolak inflasioner dibandingkan dengan menggunakan cara“market-based pricing” yang melakukan penyesuaian-penyesuaian terbatassecara reguler. Tindakan gebrakan juga berpengaruh kuat terhadap gerakan-gerakan kurs Rp/USD

- Di hadapan cadangan Minyak Bumi Indonesia yang terbatas; selain di dalamjangka-panjang terancam merosot, maka “Kebijakan Energi Nasional” – termasukpembentukan Stok Nasional – merupakan keharusan yang mendesak

11


AnalisaMeskipun kenaikan index harga komoditimineral metal mulai menunjukkanpelambatan, tapi pada komoditi pangan terusmelejit ke atas. Kenaikan pada panganbersejajaran dengan kenaikan index harga WTI – juga Brent, yang pada akhirnya muncul diindustri petrokimia penghasil pupuk/pestisida/ insektisida. Juga: memicu permintaan akanBiofuels, yang mengancam suplai pangan dipasaran dunia

12Ancaman-ancaman baru: Inflasi Global merebak ke Indonesia

The Economist commodity-price indexJul 17th 2008From The Economist print edition


Sumber: International Herald Tribune, March 7, 2998


13

Sumber: Kompas, 3 Juli 2008


14

Sumber: Kompas, 6 Mei 2008


15

Perkembangan Inflasi dan Inflasi Inti

Target Inflasi :2008 = 5 ± 1 % ;

2009 = 4,5 ± 1 %

2010 = 4 ± 1%

Catatan: inflasi yang tinggimengancam tingkatkesejahteraan “Fixed Income Earners” (masyarakatberpenghasilan tetap sepertiPNS/TNI/POLRI/Peg. BUMN-BUMD dan karyawan/buruhperusahaan-perusahaan kecil/ menengah)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Perkembangan Inflasi dan Inflasi Inti, 2005-2007

Headline y o y

Core y o y

16


Over 60% of the world's proven oil reserves—those that can be recovered from known oil fields using existing technology—are in the Middle East, according to BP, a British oil giant. Add in Russia and Venezuela, and the share rises to 74%. Saudi Arabia alone accounts for over a fifth of the total. At today's rates of production, the world has enough oil to last for almost 42 years, a slight improvement on last year. But the reserves reported by Middle Eastern countries, in particular, have remained remarkably stable over the years. That implies either that they are discovering new fields at exactly the same pace as they are exploiting their existing ones, or that they are not providing very accurate data.

Oil reservesJun 19th 2008From The Economist print edition


17

Sumber: Kompas, 15 Juni 2008


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Prof. DR. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti

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