preparing for water scarcity: learning for water scarcity: learning ... research in progress: –...

Preparing for Water Scarcity: Learning

from California’s Recent Drought

EPA Grant Kickoff Meeting March 30, 2016

Jay Lund, Director of UC Davis Watershed

Sciences Center and PPIC Adjunct Fellow

With support from the US Environmental

Protection Agency (under Assistance Agreement

No. 83586701)

Outline

California’s latest drought

Drought impacts and vulnerabilities

Project scope and timeline

Progress to date and next steps

2

Droughts are a recurring feature of

California’s variable climate

SOURCE: Western Regional Climate Center.

3

California just experienced four years of a

severe drought

Precipitation Reservoir storage Lowest (Nov. 1977)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Pre

cip

itati

on

(in

ch

es)

Reserv

oir

sto

rag

e

Millio

n a

cre

feet

(MA

F)

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

SOURCE: California Department of Water Resources. NOTE: Precipitation is measured by summing the Northern Sierra 8-station and San Joaquin 5-station precipitation indices. Reservoir storage is the sum of monthly storage in 154 major reservoirs within the state (excluding storage in the Colorado River Basin) on the first day of the month.

4

Recent rains filled some major reservoirs,

but we are not caught up yet

5

High temps, reduced snowpack,

low flows = “drought of the future”

Annual average temperature Historical average

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

Tem

pera

ture

(F

)

19

31

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

15

SOURCE: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

6

Outline





7

Cities were better prepared for this drought

Major investments since the

early 1990s helped:

–Conservation (esp. indoors)

–Diversified water portfolios

–Regional infrastructure development

2014: handful of isolated cities

(e.g., Santa Cruz) in crisis

2015: 25% avg. conservation

mandated statewide California Journal, 1991–Successful, but fiscal fallout

8

Farms have been coping with large (~50%)

surface water cutbacks

Net water reductions ~10%

– Groundwater pumping +70%

– Some trading (~5%)

– Some fallowing (~550K acres, 6%)

Economic losses moderate:

– Ag costs (4% of revenues)

– Farm jobs (5%)

– State GDP (<0.1%)

Unmitigated damages

– Subsidence (infrastructure)

– Well impacts (incl. drinking water for rural residents)

Source: NYT

9

Rural communities have been hit hard

So far…

–~3,000 dry domestic wells,

100+ small systems in trouble

–Strong emergency response

–But time lags still too long

Continued vulnerabilities…

–Increase in dry wells

–Worsening air quality

–Economic hardship

Reported dry wells

SOURCE: CA Office of Planning and Research NOTE: Map from Feb 2016

10

Ecosystems are most vulnerable:

rivers, wetlands, forests

So far…

–Dramatic reduction in

flows and habitat

–Major forest die-offs

–Increased wildfire risk

–Rescues and monitoring

–Some innovations in

waterbird management

11

Dry, hot conditions pose enduring

ecosystem risks

Native fish at near-term risk of extinction from dry, hot conditions

18 fish at risk of extinction

–Need for strategic flows,

conservation hatcheries

High risks of waterbird

mortality

–Need for strategic flows to

maintain wetlands

–Severe wildfire risk, with

some permanent losses of

conifer forests

12

Outline





13

Project objectives

Seeks to improve drought planning and emergency

response in California and the West

Four interrelated objectives:

–Review drought impacts

–Assess systems response

–Identify innovations

–Test and refine with dry runs

14

Basic project structure

Research team:

Core team + 8 area teams: seeking cross-fertilization – Over 25 researchers from 8 institutions

Research approach:

“Synthesis-plus” to inform policy

–Data analysis, modeling

– Policy workshops for two-way insights

Timeline, outputs:

3-year timeline with range of products (fact sheets,

technical reports, etc.) and outreach (blogs, events)

15

Topic areas

Hydrology and climatology

– Causes of this drought

– Implications of current drought for future droughts

Managing supply and quality

– Water rights, trading, and quality: law, institutions, accounting

– Urban response

– Agricultural response

– Rural issues

– Energy sector response

Managing ecosystems

– Aquatic ecosystems (rivers and wetlands)

– Forests and wildfires

16

Drought Review and Systems Assessment

Identify Innovations

Dry Runs

Climate & Hydrology workshops

Draft & review technical reports

Draft & review technical report

Water rights & trading workshops

Agriculture workshops

Rural communities workshops

Aquatic ecosystems workshops

Wildfires workshops

Hydropower & energy workshops

Urban areas workshops

Co

mp

lete

te

chn

ical

rep

ort

s

Co

mp

lete

te

chn

ical

rep

ort

Dry run workshops (3)

Project-related Outreach (blogs, op-eds, policy briefs, briefings, conferences)

Oct 2015

Apr 2016

Oct 2016

Apr 2017

Oct 2017

Apr 2018

Oct 2018

Full-team meeting

Science & Policy Advisory Group

Meeting

Team-leaders meeting

Full-team meeting


Science & Policy Advisory Group

Meeting

Full-team meeting


Science & Policy Advisory Group Meeting

Science & Policy Advisory Group Meeting

Project-related Outreach Dry Runs Identify Innovations Drought Review and Systems Assessment

Outline





18

Hydrology and climate

2070-2099, Medium Warming Scenario Research in progress:

25% snowpack remaining

–Characterize latest drought along different dimensions (precipitation, snowpack, temperature)

–Assess likely conditions of future droughts, informed by climate models

Next steps:

–Hold workshop on drought characteristics for future planning

–Develop scenarios of future droughts for use in dry runs

SOURCE: Cayan, Dan et al. (2009), CA Climate Adaptation Strategy

19

Water rights, markets, and quality

Research in progress:

–Assess drought lessons

for water allocation

institutions

–Identify best practices in

water accounting for

managing scarce

supplies

Next steps:

–Hold event on water

accounting

recommendations

Avera

ge a

nnual purc

hases (

taf

com

mitte

d)

Water purchases by user group

Environment 2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Other farmers

San Joaquin Valley farmers

Mixed purpose

Cities

1987-1994 1995-2002 2003-2011 2012-2014

20

Agricultural, rural issues


–Focus on the San Joaquin Valley

–Outline regional challenges

–Provide solution context (e.g.,

2014 Sustainable Groundwater

Management Act)

–Lay out alternative paths

Next steps:

–Hold regional workshops

–Initiate more in-depth analysis on

solution paths

21

Urban water use


– Survey California’s 400+

urban water agencies to

understand drought impacts

and responses

–Supplement with urban data

(finance, water use, plans)

Next steps:

–Hold regional workshops

–Report on state, local policy

and management lessons

22

Aquatic ecosystems (rivers and wetlands)


–Examine environmental water regulations

during drought in three watersheds

–Assess lessons from Victoria, Australia, for

environmental management in CA

Next steps:

–Hold workshops on planning for droughts

and allocating water for the environment

23

Forest and wildfires


–Draw lessons from the latest

drought for moving from fire

suppression to forest

management & fire prevention

Next steps

–Hold workshop w/ state,

federal, private forest

managers, NGOs, and

researchers

–Focus on reducing barriers,

raising incentives for forest

management

24

Some reflections on drought

Droughts test water systems, and catalyze innovations

and adaptations. Every drought is different. It has always

been so.

Statewide economic impacts of drought have been far less

than one would have expected.

Ecosystem impacts of drought were often greater, and

less well prepared for.

Problems and successes suggest directions for improvement across all levels of government.

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Thank you!

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Notes on the use of these slides

These slides were created to accompany a presentation.

They do not include full documentation of sources, data

samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid

misinterpretations, please contact:

Jay Lund ([email protected])

Thank you for your interest in this work.

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mailto:[email protected]

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