preliminary summary discussion materials prepared for the
TRANSCRIPT
The Special Committee of the IAC Board of Directors
October 10th, 2018
Preliminary Summary Discussion Materials Prepared for
Private & Confidential
Team Michael & Nima
MICHAEL CHONG NIMA KARAMLOUThird-year FMS Third-year ECON
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Valuation Strategic Options AppendixInvestment
Thesis
Agenda
1. Company Overview
2. Investment Thesis
3. Industry Overview
4. Valuation
5. Strategic Options
6. Appendix
3
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
-20.00%
30.00%
80.00%
130.00%
180.00%
230.00%
280.00%
Annotated Stock Chart
May 2014• Announced Proposed Merger with Clariant
August 2014• HUN spins off Pigments & Add. Business
Annotated Stock Chart
Huntsman Stock Price Performance Since 2015 Slowdown
Oct-15 Apr-16 OCT-16 Apr-17 OCT-17 Apr-18 Oct-18
Comparable Companies: BAS, 1COV, DWDP, LYB, BAYN, AKZA, CLN, ASH, LXS, OLN, EVK
Huntsman Corporation (HUN)
S&P 500 Index
6/30/2018:FQ2 Results: Revenue beat ($2.4B vs. $2.2B) by 7.2% despite being down 8.1% Y/Y. EPS beat by $0.17 and was up 18.8% Y/Y
3/30/2018:FQ1 Results: Revenue beat ($2.3B vs. $2.2B) by 6.0% despite being down 7.0% Y/Y. EPS beat by $0.15 and was up 68.4% Y/Y
12/31/2017:FQ4 Results: Revenue beat ($2.2B vs. $2.1B) by 4.8% despite being down 8.0% Y/Y. EPS beat by $0.10 and was up 143.0% Y/Y
12/31/2016:FQ4 Results: Revenue beat ($2.4B vs. $2.3B) by 6.2% and was up 2.7% Y/Y. EPS beat by $0.06, but was down 41.2% Y/Y
12/31/2015:FQ4 Results: Revenue missed($2.3B vs. $2.4B) by 4.6% and was down 20.9% Y/Y. EPS beat by $0.30 and was up 54.5% Y/Y
Oct 2017• Clariant abandons merger with Huntsman
Aug 2017• VNTR IPOs for $454MM
4
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
Huntsman Portfolio Composition%
To
tal
2019
E EB
ITD
A
Huntsman’s four main business segments
59% 22% 14% 6%
Polyurethanes Performance Products Textile EffectsAdvanced Material
2018E Rev. Growth2018E Rev. Growth 2018E Rev. Growth 2018E Rev. Growth
MDI – based polyurethanes used to produce insulation, seating foam, furniture, and foot wear products etc.
Chemicals for cleaning, dispersing, emulsifying, and curing.
Technologically advanced epoxy, acrylic and polyurethanes-based polymer products are replacing materials in aircraft.
Provide textile dyes and chemicals and digital inks that enhance color and improve performance.
Detergents and soaps, oil and gas production, gas treating, coating, and epoxy curing.
11%14% 7% 5%
Description
End Markets
Coatings, construction materials, circuit boards and sports equipment.
Wrinkle resistance, longer lasting fabrics, faster drying properties and the ability to repel water and stains.
Energy-saving insulation, comfort foam for automotive seating, bedding and furniture, coatings, elastomers for footwear.
5
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
2020 Plan: Unique Platform for Quality Earnings Expansion
1.5x GDP Derivatives
Volume Growth
>420mm EBITDA ~9% CAGR
High teens EBITDA Margins
~60% Free Cash Flow Conversion
Robust innovative pipeline leading to significant downstream growth
Sustainable EBITDA growth underpinned by macro trends
Poised to deliver >10% EBITDA growth in derivatives
PolyurethanesHigh growth through downstream substitution
Performance ProductsMargin expansion and growth through downstream derivatization
Advanced MaterialsGrowth and consistent margins in specialty effects
Textile EffectsConsistent growth through sustainable solutions
2x GDP Growth>$1B EBITDA >10% CAGR
~20% EBITDA Margins
>70% Free Cash Flow conversion
MDI Urethanes strategically aligned with growth megatrends
Huntsman sharply focused on growing its differentiated business
MDI conditions favorable for foreseeable future
2x GDP Specialty Revenue Growth
>270mm EBITDA (~7% CAGR)
>22% EBITDA Margins
>75% Free Cash Flow conversion
Highly qualified applications create robustness in portfolio
Healthy innovation pipeline and platform for bolt-on acquisitions
Sustainable >20% EBITDA margin
2x GDP Growth>$110mm
EBITDA >10% CAGR
Mid-teens EBITDA Margins
>50% Free Cash Flow conversion
Leader in environmental solutions driving growth
Margin expansion through Specialty and Differentiated growth
Innovation driven, asset light and cash generating
6
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
MDI Industry Demand Remains Strong ~2x GDP
MDI Industry Size (millions of tones)Long-Term Growth Drivers
Mobility
Food Preservation
Energy Management
Population Growth
2.8
4
5.1
6.7
9.1
2002 2007 2012 2017 2022E
2017-2022 ProjectionsDemand Growth 6%-7% CAGR
PolyurethanesBridging 2017 to 2020E EBITDA
~10% EBITDA CAGR
Continued focus on downstream growth aligned with macro trends – 2x GDP volume growth in MDI
Assumes no remaining MDI short-term margin spikes
Assumes no new M&A and upside from MTBE
2020 outlook includes a major PO/MTBE turnaround
17% Base
EBITDA Margin
~20% EBITDA Margin
$1,120mm
7
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
Long-Term Growth Drivers
Agriculture
Oil Field
Marine
Automotive fluids
Performance ProductsBridging 2017 to 2020E EBITDA
~9% EBITDA CAGR
Macro trends in key markets –2.0x GDP volume growth in key
markets
Strong Innovation pipeline
Downstream derivatization of low cost intermediates
Assumes no new M&A
Margin expansion and growth through downstream derivatization
~14% EBITDA Margin
~15% EBITDA Margin
High Teens
EBITDA Margin
$412mm
8
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
Long-Term Growth Drivers
Aircraft Build
Electrical Demand
Construction Additives
Automotive Composites
Growth and consistent margins in specialty effects
Advanced MaterialBridging 2017 to 2020E EBITDA
~7% EBITDA CAGR
Focus on specialty applications –2x GDP volume growth
Targeted innovation for customer solutions
Assumes no new M&A
>22% EBITDA Margin
21% EBITDA Margin
$272mm
9
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
Long-Term Growth Drivers
Active Wear
Home & Furnishings
Formal Wear
Footwear
Textile EffectsBridging 2017 to 2020E EBITDA
>10% EBITDA CAGR
Alignment with key macro trends
Growth in specialty & differentiated products
Margin expansion
Assumes no new M&A
Mid Teens
EBITDA Margin
11% EBITDA Margin
$114mm
Driving Strong Demand for Sustainability Solutions
Increased regulatory enforcement- New Chinese Environmental Protection Tax
effective 1/1/18- Vietnam implementing stricter regulations
Brand driven requirements and demands- Brands demand products with clean
chemistries- Water scarcity mentioned as the most
serious environmental challenge facing the global textile industry
Increased NGO pressure/activism- Detox committed companies now represent
15% of worldwide textile production
10
Consistent growth through sustainable solutions
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
Comparison of Financial Forecast Cases
FY2018E
Revenue ($ Millions)
FY2020E
Revenue ($ Millions)
EBITDA ($ Millions) EBITDA ($ Millions)
EPS ($/Share) EPS ($/Share)
$9,183
$9,276 $9,257
$9,296
$9,229
Street Consensus UCSB Base UCSB 25% UCSB 75% 2020 Plan
$1,521 $1,546
$1,406
$1,686
$1,534
Street Consensus UCSB Base UCSB 25% UCSB 75% 2020 Plan
$1,625 $1,738
$1,370
$1,787 $1,682
Street Consensus UCSB Base UCSB 25% UCSB 75% 2020 Plan
$3.47 $2.86
$2.38
$3.34 $3.17
Street Consensus UCSB Base UCSB 25% UCSB 75% 2020 Plan
$3.90
$5.48
$4.03
$7.09
$4.69
Street Consensus UCSB Base UCSB 25% UCSB 75% 2020 Plan
$9,747
$10,225
$9,842
$10,709
$10,000
Street Consensus UCSB Base UCSB 25% UCSB 75% 2020 Plan
11
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
61.6%
32.9%
153.3%
8.0%
16.8%
93.1%
9.5%
63.3%
48.1%
7.9x
18.9x
10.0x
5.3x
12.2x9.3x 8.6x
6.5x5.1x 4.2x
19.0x
6.6x 6.5x
9.8x
21.0x 20.5x
9.4x
17.9x15.4x
13.7x
9.4x7.6x 7.5x
28.7x
10.7x
7.4x
Eastman ChemicalCompany
(NYSE:EMN)
Platform SpecialtyProducts
Corporation(NYSE:PAH)
Ashland GlobalHoldings Inc.(NYSE:ASH)
Olin Corporation(NYSE:OLN)
RPM InternationalInc. (NYSE:RPM)
Clariant AG(SWX:CLN)
DowDuPont Inc.(NYSE:DWDP)
LyondellBasellIndustries N.V.
(NYSE:LYB)
Wanhua ChemicalGroup Co., Ltd.(SHSE:600309)
Covestro AG(DB:1COV)
Akzo Nobel N.V.(ENXTAM:AKZA)
BASF SE (DB:BAS) HuntsmanCorporation(NYSE:HUN)
NTM EV/Forward EBITDA NTM Forward P/E
Huntsman Peer Group Valuation
Street Has Not Appreciated HUN Story
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 Jan-2018 Jul-2018
CompsHUNS&P 500
Valuation Disconnect Has Widened Total Shareholder Return
S&P 500
41.2%
-11.2%
20.8%
69.4%
Public Market Perception
15
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
- Stable cash flows throughout justify increased valuation; company’s high cost of capital contributes to meaningful share price discount- Company should consider altering their capital structure to bring down WACC and drive ~$2.51/share in incremental value
Illustrative Discount Cash Flow Analysis
Illustrative Status Quo Financial Analysis
FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021
Revenue 8,358 9,276 9,770 10,225 10,662
% Growth 11% 11% 5% 5% 4%
Adj. EBITDA 1,259 1,546 1,249 1,394 1,537
% Margin 15% 17% 13% 14% 14%
Unlevered FCF $912 $1,181 $606 $939 $954
10% 13% 6% 9% 9% 13%
$32.59 6.5x 7.5x 8.5x
13.1% $31.60 $35.49 $39.38
16.1% $29.08 $32.59 $36.09
19.1% $26.87 $30.04 $33.20
Implied Share Price
EBITDA Exit MultipleIllustrative Discount Rate
13
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
Intrinsic Valuation Implies ~26% Upside In Next 12 Months
Key Valuation Assumptions And Implied Share Price
Sum of the Parts Discounted Cash Flow
Polyurethanes
Performance Products
Textile Effects
Advanced Material
WACC
Enterprise Value/ EBITDA Exit Multiple
26.2%Implied Upside Or $32.59 Implied
Share Price
42.1%Implied Upside Or $37.29 Implied
Share Price
2019E EBITDA Multiple
$984
$388
$252
$106
6.7x
8.8x
6.3x
5.0x
13.1%
7.5x
12
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
The New HUN is Unappreciated
Conclusion Target Price: $34.94
Current Price: $25.83
35% Implied Upside In Next 12 Months
Polyurethanes and Performance product contributing 10% and 9% EBITDA CAGR Growth respectively….
Advanced Material and Textile Effects contributing 7% and 10% EBITDA CAGR Growth respectively….
With 50-50 sum of parts and DCF valuation, base case projecting an implied upside of 35% growth
Implied Upside: 35.3%
$15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60
52 Week Trading Range
Street Consensus
Discount Cash Flow
NTM EV/EBITDA Status Quo
NTM EV/EBITDA Textile Spin-Off
2019E P/E w/ Leveraged Buyback
2019E P/E w/ VNTR Spin-Off
Blended PT: $34.93Current Share Price: $25.83
14
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
Huntsman Corp.
Status QuoTake-Private
Leveraged BuyoutSeparation of Textile
EffectsReturn of Capital to
Shareholders
Leveraged Share Repurchase
Venator SpinOff & Share Repurchase
A B C
Huntsman Has a Number of Ways to Drive Value for Shareholders
Dividend Recap.
16
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
2.8x
6.1x
3.8x
3.0x 3.0x
1.9x1.6x
0.8x 0.9x
0.2x
3.2x
1.0x
1.5x
Eastman ChemicalCompany
(NYSE:EMN)
Platform SpecialtyProducts
Corporation(NYSE:PAH)
Ashland GlobalHoldings Inc.(NYSE:ASH)
Olin Corporation(NYSE:OLN)
RPM InternationalInc. (NYSE:RPM)
Clariant AG(SWX:CLN)
DowDuPont Inc.(NYSE:DWDP)
LyondellBasellIndustries N.V.
(NYSE:LYB)
Wanhua ChemicalGroup Co., Ltd.(SHSE:600309)
Covestro AG(DB:1COV)
Akzo Nobel N.V.(ENXTAM:AKZA)
BASF SE (DB:BAS) HuntsmanCorporation(NYSE:HUN)
Mean LTM Net Debt/ EBITDA
Illustrative Credit AnalysisS&P Credit
Rating
LTM Net
Debt/EBITDA
Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600309) BBB- 6.1x
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE:LYB) BBB+ 3.8x
BASF SE (DB:BAS) A 3.0x
Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE) - 3.0x
RPM International Inc. (NYSE:RPM) BBB 1.9x
Platform Specialty Products Corporation (NYSE:PAH) BB- 1.6x
DowDuPont Inc. (NYSE:DWDP) - 0.8x
Clariant AG (SWX:CLN) BBB- 0.9x
Ashland Global Holdings Inc. (NYSE:ASH) BB 0.2x
Olin Corporation (NYSE:OLN) BB+ 3.2x
Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE:EMN) BBB 1.0x
Huntsman Corporation (NYSE:HUN) BB+ 1.5x
Substantial room to lever up
Illustrative Uses for Leverage
Huntsman has Superior Balance Sheet Optionality
- Return of Capital to Shareholders (Leveraged Buyback, Dividend Recapitalization)- Sponsor Led Go Private Leveraged Buyout
17
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
Leveraged Buyout Transaction Structure
Sponsor HoldCo.
Huntsman OpCo.
Sponsor GP
HUN Family
TextileSpinCo
Divestiture Proceeds
Legacy Noteholders
VNTR
Key Transaction Assumptions
20% Implied Premium
SpinOff VNTR Stake
Textile SpinOff at 5.0x NTM EBITDA
2023 Exit Target
New LBO Debt Holders
18
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
Target Cash $397 4%
Assumed Target Debt (Less Textile & VNTR SpinCo) 1,324 14%
New Term Loan A 1,264 14%
New Term Loan B 1,264 14%
New Euro-Denominated Leveraged Loan 1,264 14%
New 2035 Unsecured Note 1,070 12%
Total New Debt $4,863 53%
Management Roll-Over 1,496 16%
Sponsor Equity 1,122 12%
Total Illustrative Sources $9,202 100%
Illustrative Sources % of Total
Equity Purchase Price $7,481 81%
Refi. Target Debt 1,324 14%
Total Purchase Price Excl. Cash $8,805 96%
Advisory Fees 150 2%
Consulting/ Legal 150 2%
Financing Fees 97 1%
Total Illustrative Uses $9,202 100%
% of TotalIllustrative Uses
Illustrative Transaction Considerations
62% 6.4x 6.9x 7.4x 7.9x 8.4x
$28.41 10.0% 58.7% 63.3% 67.6% 71.6% 75.3%
$29.70 15.0% 55.5% 60.3% 64.6% 68.6% 72.4%
$31.00 20.0% 52.5% 57.3% 61.7% 65.7% 69.5%
$32.29 25.0% 49.5% 54.4% 58.8% 62.9% 66.8%
$33.58 30.0% 46.6% 51.5% 56.1% 60.2% 64.1%
% Implied Premium
NTM EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple
Base Case Sponsor IRR
Illustrative Returns Analysis
50% 6.4x 6.9x 7.4x 7.9x 8.4x
$28.41 10.0% 47.7% 52.0% 56.0% 59.7% 63.2%
$29.70 15.0% 44.7% 49.1% 53.2% 56.9% 60.4%
$31.00 20.0% 41.9% 46.4% 50.5% 54.2% 57.8%
$32.29 25.0% 39.1% 43.7% 47.8% 51.6% 55.2%
$33.58 30.0% 36.4% 41.0% 45.2% 49.1% 52.7%
% Implied Premium
NTM EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple
Base Case Management IRR
Illustrative Leveraged Buyout Analysis
19
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
Divestiture of Textile Effects Unit
FY2019E EBITDA $106
FY2019E EBITDA Multiple 5.0x
FY2019E Enterprise Value $532
FY2019E Status Quo EBITDA 1,571
FY2019E Pro Forma EBITDA 1,465
6.5x 7.3x
Pro Forma Enterprise Value 9,520 10,627
(-) Net Debt 1,626 1,626
Pro Forma Share Price $37.91 $43.22
Illust. FY2019 EV/EBITDA Multiple
Illustrative Textile Effects Business Divestiture
Key Considerations
Textile Effects Exit Multiple
4.5x 5.0x 5.5x 6.5x
6.5x $37.7 $37.9 $38.2 $38.7
7.3x $43.0 $43.2 $43.5 $44.0HUN 2019E EV/EBITDA
Textile Effects Financials Summary
Huntsman Income Statement Impact
- Textile Effects Unit fits oddly within the broader portfolio- A divestiture could provide HUN with significant rerating opp.
Scenario Analysis
FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021
Revenue 776 818 850 880 908
% Growth 3% 5% 4% 3% 3%
Adj. EBITDA 83 96 106 114 118
% Margin 11% 12% 13% 13% 13%
Free Cash Flow $37 $46 $53 $60 $65
% Conversion 45.0% 47.5% 50.0% 52.5% 55.0%
Notes: Assumes Share Buyback, no premium on Textile Effects Unit23 % Tax Rate
FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021
Revenue 7,582 8,459 8,919 9,345 9,753
% Growth 12% 12% 5% 5% 4%
Adj. EBITDA 1,176 1,449 1,142 1,279 1,418
% Margin 16% 17% 13% 14% 15%
Adj. Diluted EPS $2.03 $2.68 $4.60 $5.75 $6.57
% Accretion (Dilution) -6.1% 3.5% 5.0% 8.2%
20
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
Net Debt Proceeds for Repurchase $989
Purchase Price (@ 10% Premium) $28.41
% of Current Shares Purchased 15.4%
Pro Rata Value per Share $4.36
FY2019E Status Quo EPS $4.45
FY 2019E Pro Forma EPS $4.88
% EPS Accretion/ (Dilution) 9.8%
5.8x 6.8x
Pro Forma Share Price $28.36 $33.24
PF Value of Retained Shares $24.00 $28.88
Illustrative $1 Billion Leveraged Share Repurchase
Illustrative FY2019 P/E Multiple
VNTR Proceeds, Net of taxes $442
Purchase Price (@ 10% Premium) $28.41
% of Current Shares Purchased 6.9%
Pro Rata Value per Share $1.95
FY2019E Status Quo EPS $4.45
FY 2019E Pro Forma EPS $4.80
% EPS Accretion/ (Dilution) 8.1%
5.8x 6.8x
Pro Forma Share Price $27.92 $32.72
PF Value of Retained Shares $25.97 $30.77
Illustrative $450 Million Venator Spin-off Repurchase
Illustrative FY2019 P/E Multiple
Return of Capital to Shareholders
Net Debt Proceeds for Dividend $989
Basic Shares Outstanding 222
Dividend per Share $4.46
FY2019E Status Quo EPS $4.45
FY 2019E Pro Forma EPS $4.25
% EPS Accretion/ (Dilution) -4.3%
5.8x 6.8x
Pro Forma Share Price $24.72 $28.98
Per share Dividend $4.46 $4.46
Illustrated $1 Billion Dividend Recapitalization
Illustrative FY2019 P/E Multiple
Net Proceeds from Sale of Textile Effects Unit $409
Net Debt Paydown (50% of Proceeds) 205
Cash Financed Dividend (50% of Proceeds) 205
Dividend per Share $1.01
FY2019E Status Quo EPS $4.45
FY 2019E Pro Forma EPS $4.26
% EPS Accretion/ (Dilution) -4.2%
5.8x 6.8x
Pro Forma Share Price $24.74 $29.00
Per share Dividend $0.92 $0.92
Illustrative FY2019 P/E Multiple
Illustrative Textile Divestiture & Cash Dividend
21
Valuation AppendixCompany Overview
Industry Overview
Strategic OptionsInvestment
Thesis
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