discussion - hydrogen roadmap preliminary results ... · discussion - hydrogen roadmap preliminary...
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© OECD/IEA 2014
Discussion - Hydrogen roadmap preliminary results &
Milestones and key actions
Alex Körner International Energy Agency [email protected]
© OECD/IEA 2014
Aim of this session
Explain and discuss preliminary roadmap results for
Transport
Energy storage and flexibility options
Discuss proposed milestones and key actions
Next steps
© OECD/IEA 2014
Transport – Preliminary results
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Vision – Transport
What if 25% of all PLDVs are FCEVs by 2050?
Discussion of vehicle sales
Discussion of fuel use and emission reduction potential
Examination of costs and benefits
Focus: Infrastructure requirements and costs
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
ve
hic
les
2DS-high H2
FCEV
BEV
PHEV
Hybrid ICE
Conventional ICE
© OECD/IEA 2014
PLDV stock by region 2DS High H2
The PLDV stock over time shows significant regional differences
EUG4 includes France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PLD
V s
tock
mill
ion
s
USA
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20
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EU G4
Conventional Gasoline Gasoline Hybrid
Diesel Diesel Hybrid
CNG/LPG Plug-In Hybrid Gasoline
Plug-In Hybrid Diesel Electricity
H2 Fuel Cell
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Japan
© OECD/IEA 2014
Results – Hydrogen station infrastructure
High spatial coverage creates demand for relatively small stations
Smaller stations need to be built during FCEV roll-out
0
50
100
150
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300
USA
EUG
4
Japan
USA
EUG
4
Japan
2015 2020
Nu
mb
er
of
stat
ion
s
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5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
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USA
EUG
4
Japan
USA
EUG
4
Japan
USA
EUG
4
Japan
USA
EUG
4
Japan
USA
EUG
4
Japan
USA
EUG
4
Japan
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
1800 kg
500 kg
© OECD/IEA 2014
Hydrogen T&D infrastructure
Transmission infrastructure requirements are very sensitive to assumptions on average transmission distance between point of H2 production and demand
0
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100
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USA
EU G
4
Jap
an
USA
EU G
4
Jap
an
2015 2020
Tru
ck s
tock
Pip
elin
e k
m
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10000
20000
30000
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50000
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USA
EU G
4
Jap
an
USA
EU G
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Jap
an
USA
EU G
4
Jap
an
USA
EU G
4
Jap
an
USA
EU G
4
Jap
an
USA
EU G
4
Jap
an
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
DistributionPipeline
DistributionLiquefiedtrucks
DistributionGaseoustrucks
TransmissionPipeline
TransmissionLiquefiedtrucks
TransmissionGaseoustrucks
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Fuel cell electric vehicle costs
FCEV costs drop quickly with sales if envisaged FC stack production costs can be achieved
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
FCEV
sto
ck m
illio
ns
Tho
usa
nd
20
10
USD
Glider (USA)
Gasoline ICE (USA)
Gasoline HEV (USA)
HEV global average MSRP in 2011
Gasoline HEV Plug-in (USA)
Prius-PHV
Diesel ICE (USA)
Diesel HEV (USA)
CNG/LPG (USA)
H2 FCV (USA)
BEV (USA)
BEV global average MSRP in 2011
FCEV stock
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Hydrogen costs at the pump by region
Hydrogen cost drop quickly with clustered stations and demand focused on big urban areas
With higher spatial coverage and increasing size of the station, utilization rates might see another minimum in the medium term
Japan offers unique opportunities due to high population density
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100
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2015 2025 2035 2045
USD
/lge
USA
USA
FCEV stockmillions
0
10
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100
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
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4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2015 2025 2035 2045
EU G4
Hydrogen costs at pump
FCEV stock millions
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20
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100
1.0
1.5
2.0
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3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2015 2025 2035 2045
FCEV
sto
ck m
illio
ns
Japan
Expansion of the H2 T&D and retail infrastructure beyond clusters induces uptake of H2 delivered costs
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Total cost of driving
Total cost of driving (TCD) drop slower due to H2 generation and T&D cost, expanding the T&D and retail infrastructure beyond biggest urban areas to allow for significant FCEV market penetration provokes stagnation of total costs of driving in the medium term
20% variation of hydrogen costs changes break even by +/- 5 years
Based on TCD “economic gap” analysis can be conducted
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0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tota
l co
st o
f d
rivi
ng
USD
/km
USA
FCEV
ICE
HEV
BEV
PHEV
FCEV stockmillions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EU G4
FCEV ICE
HEV BEV
PHEV +/- 20% H2 cost
FCEV stock millions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
FCEV
sto
ck m
illio
ns
Japan
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Subsidy as share of petroleum tax income
Differences in regional taxation, vehicle size and fuel economy as well as annual mileage significantly affect total costs of driving and resulting subsidy needs to achieve breakeven with conventional ICE vehicles
Assumptions ”petroleum fuel tax”: US: 50%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2015 2025 2035 2045
Mill
ion
ve
hic
les
Tho
usa
nd
USD
USA
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2015 2025 2035 2045
EU G4
FCEV stock millions
"Subsidy" per vehicle sold, thousand USD/veh
Annual share of "subsidy" on "tax"
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-20
-10
0
10
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30
40
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60
70
2015 2025 2035 2045
Shar
e o
f su
bsi
dy
on
tax
rev
en
ue
s
Japan
EU: 125% Japan: 120%
© OECD/IEA 2014
Total subsidy need
Total subsidy needed is based on a breakeven of total cost of driving with conventional ICE vehicles
When FCEVs reach breakeven with conventional ICEs, subsidies are completely or almost outweighed by saved oil expenditures
When subsidies are phased out H2 needs to be taxed
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
USD
USA
Total annual subsidymillion USD/y
Total cumulativesubsidy million USD
Cumulative oilsavings, million USD
FCEV stock millions
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EU G4
Total annual subsidy million USD/y
Total cumulative subsidy million USD
Cumulative oil savings, million USD
FCEV stock millions
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
FC
EVs
Japan
© OECD/IEA 2014
Cumulative H2 infrastructure costs
Long term infrastructure investment cost per vehicle are in the range of USD 1300 per vehicle in Europe and Japan and up to USD 2000 per vehicle in the US
Differences in specific investment result from regionally different H2 demand per vehicle per year, due to different annual mileages and fuel economies
Different population densities and transmission distances do also greatly impact specific infrastructure investment costs
0
40
80
120
160
200
2010 to 2030 2031 to 2050 2010 to 2050
bill
ion
USD
USA
0
20
40
60
80
2010 to 2030 2031 to 2050 2010 to 2050
EU G4
retail stations distribution pipeline
distribution liq. truck distribution gas . truck
transmission pipeline transmission liq. truck
transmission gas . truck generation
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
2010 to 2030 2031 to 2050 2010 to 2050
Japan
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Hydrogen generation (not optimized)
Imported H2 is not taken into account
Estimate of H2 generation from low cost renewable electricity based on 2DS variable renewable generation and assumed curtailment rates calculated in external studies
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20
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60
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Bill
ion
Lge
USA
0
5
10
15
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
EU G4
Low cost renewable electricity
Average mix electrcity
Biomass gasification
Natural gas and CCS
Natural gas
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Japan
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FCEV emission savings
Within the underlying (preliminary) supply scenario hydrogen is decarbonized to match the 2DS transport sector emission results (from ETP 2014)
In this scenario hydrogen is produced from natural gas with and without CCS, biomass gasification and low cost renewable electricity (incorporating curtailment levels shown in other studies)
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Energy integration and storage – Preliminary results
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Vision – Hydrogen electricity storage
What if hydrogen electricity storage becomes competitive? Estimation of storage potentials in 2DS
Costs/efficiencies of H2 electricity storage technology to be competitive
Are there synergies between energy storage/renewable energy integration and hydrogen T&D infrastructure for transport?
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Electricity storage potential 2DS
Combination of long-term energy system optimization and dispatch model run with 2050 fixed power sector fleet
Storage results captures only time-wise mismatch between supply and demand
Breakthrough scenario assumes 50% reduction of investment cost of benchmarking technology
Renewables penetration globally >70% by 2050 in the power sector
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Long term electricity storage
Hydrogen offers the only option to get anywhere close to acceptable LCOE for large scale, long-term electricity storage
Large scale, long-term electricity storage always suffers from low load factors if no other services are provided
Assumptions: 500MW output, 120h discharge at nameplate power, 5 cycles a year, ranges show difference between free electricity and electricity at 50 USD/MWh
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3000H
2 P
EM
H2
Alk
H2
PEM
CC
GT
P2
G P
EM O
CG
T
PH
S
CA
ES
LCO
E U
SD/M
Wh
Seasonal
Future
Today
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Vision – Power-to-fuel
What if otherwise curtailed electricity could be used to produce H2 for transport? Even under optimistic cost/efficiency assumptions of electrolyzers, low
value electricity needs to be used to make renewable H2 competitive with NG steam reforming
Can the inherent storage need for transport refueling infrastructure serve as a storage for VARres integration?
Source: Renewable
Electricity Futures Study,
Volume 1, NREL 2013
© OECD/IEA 2014
Vision – Power-to-gas (HENG)
Can power-to-gas be a competitive flexibility option? At which carbon price power-to-gas can get competitive?
Estimates of regional storage potential within existing NG infrastructure under certain blend shares based on existing studies
What techno-economic parameters of electrolyzers needs to be achieved?
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0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
Ab
ate
me
nt
cost
s U
SD/t
CO
2
Electrcity price USD/MWh
P2G - CO2 abatement costs
Today US gas
Today EU gas
Today Japan gas
Future US gas
Future EU gas
Future Japan gas
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Proposed milestones and key actions for discussion
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Milestones – Key hydrogen conversion technologies
Metric Possible milestones and targets Proposed time
frame Electrolyzer in
general
Optimize both capital costs and efficiency. Optimize current density,
operating pressure and temperature with respect to capital costs, efficiency
and lifetime. Focus on increasing operational flexibility and such
characteristics as ramp-up rates, start times and stand-by energy use.
Draw upon the modularity of electrolyzers and the respective flexibility of
power capacity.
PEM electrolyzer Reduce in vestment cost to USD 600 per kW. Investigate impact of
economies of scale on investment costs and examine possible spill-over
effects from large scale fuel cell production processes in the transport
sector. Reduce or avoid the use of precious metals and increase stack
capacity as well as maximum stack size. Increase efficiency to more than
80%.
Alkaline
electrolyzer
Reduce investment cost to below USD 600 per kW. Increase operational
flexibility and reduce maintenance costs. Increase technical lifetime and
optimize power density. Increase efficiency to more than 80%.
Solid oxide
electrolyzer
Increase cell lifetimes to at least 20,000h at acceptable degradation.
Improve operational flexibility.
Operational
aspects
Monetize all byproduct streams. Optimize operation and maximize benefits
of all energy services such as hydrogen production, provision of negative
control power, provision of heat and oxygen.
© OECD/IEA 2014
Milestones – Key hydrogen conversion technologies
Metric Possible milestones and targets Proposed time
frame
Fuel cells in
general
Optimize both capital costs and efficiency. Increase lifetime.
PEM fuel cells Reduce investment cost to below USD 800 per kW for stationary
applications by reducing both the cost of the stack and the cost of balance
of plant . Reduce costs for mobile applications to below USD 100 per kW.
Reduce precious metal requirements and increase lifetime at the same
time. Reduce sensitivity to impurities of hydrogen and prove feasibility at
large stack capacities.
Alkaline fuel cells Increase operational flexibility and reduce maintenance costs. Increase
technical lifetime to more than 10,000h and optimize power density.
Solid oxide fuel
cells
Reduce investment costs to below USD 200 per kW. Increase cell
lifetimes at acceptable degradation to more than 10,000h. Improve
operational flexibility.
Operational
aspects
Recover and monetize process heat generated in fuel cells when used in
stationary applications to improve overall efficiency.
© OECD/IEA 2014
Milestones – Energy storage
Metric Possible milestones and targets Proposed time
frame
Underground
storage potential
Evaluate and establish inventories of the potential of underground caverns
for hydrogen storage on a national basis. Prove the feasibility of hydrogen
storage in salt caverns, depleted oil and gas fields as well as aquifers with
respect to different parameters such as undesired reactions, capacity,
development costs, location & existing infrastructure
Metal hydrides Reduce costs, increase weight specific storage capacity and reduce
charging times.
Gaseous storage
cylinders
Reduce material costs for on-board storage in fuel cell electric vehicles.
Liquid hydrogen
storage
Improve thermodynamic parameters of liquid storage tanks to reduce boil-
off rates. Improve efficiency of the liquefaction process through heat
recovery and improved compressors.
© OECD/IEA 2014
Milestones – Fuel cell electric vehicles
Metric Possible milestones and targets Proposed time
frame
Vehicle costs Achieve a price premium of 20% or less compared to conventional ICE
vehicles at production rates compared to today’s hybrid vehicles
production (1 to 1.5 million s per year)
FC stack durability Achieve a lifetime of 5000 hours with a stack voltage degradation of less than 10%
Fuel efficiency Achieve fuel efficiencies of 1 to 0.8 kg of hydrogen per 100 km to allow a
range of at least 500km
Technology
packaging
Achieve technology packaging to make FCEVs models compatible with
conventional vehicle chassis – therefore increase power density and
specific power of the fuel cell system
On-board hydrogen
storage
Reduce the volume and the weight of the hydrogen tank. Reduce specific
costs to at least below USD 12 per kWh. Therefore reduce manufacturing
costs of the carbon fiber layer
International
refueling standard
Establish an international standard for refueling pressure and shape of the
nozzle
© OECD/IEA 2014
Milestones – T&D and refueling infrastructure
Metric Possible milestones and targets Proposed time
frame
Refueling station
coverage
Achieve coverage with hydrogen stations of all cities >200,000 to 250,000
inhabitants as well as interconnecting highways
On-board pressure
and nozzle
standards
Agree on international standard for on-board hydrogen storage pressure
and nozzle shape. Therefore find optimal storage pressure to balance
vehicle storage requirements and investment at the station for
compression
H2 measuring and
billing standard
Agree on international standard to measure and bill hydrogen flow at the
station
H2 safety codes and
standards
Introduce reasonable safety codes and standards for hydrogen handling
and storage at refueling stations
Investment risk Reduce investment risk. Agree on strategies between vehicle OEMs and
infrastructure owners for technology roll-out. Fast ramp-up rates for
vehicle stock and intelligent clustering of infrastructure around early
demand centers avoid long times of asset underutilization and increase
expectations on return of investment
Station footprint Evaluate impact of station footprint on costs. Include results when setting
up safety codes and standards for hydrogen handling and storage on
hydrogen stations
© OECD/IEA 2014
Milestones – Hydrogen generation
Metric Possible milestones and targets Proposed time
frame
Carbon footprint of
hydrogen
generation
Agree on long-term hydrogen decarbonization strategies with an eye
towards near term implications of renewable hydrogen requirements on
hydrogen costs and infrastructure pay-back times
Generation of
hydrogen for
energy use in the
near term
Evaluate cautiously the real level of “excess” hydrogen generation
capacity at today’s existing generation sites in the refining and chemical
industry, taking into account already very high levels of utilization of
hydrogen generation assets
Evaluate synergies between increasing demand of hydrogen with
decreasing crude oil quality in the refining industry and additional
hydrogen demand e.g. from the transport sector
Hydrogen quality
requirements
Agree on standards for hydrogen purity for use in fuel cell electric vehicles
and re-evaluate the economic potential of using waste hydrogen flows in
the chemical industry against these quality requirements
Quantify
curtailment levels
with increasing
variable renewable
share in the power
sector
Quantify possible levels of curtailment of renewable electricity in the power
sector taking into account high shares of variable renewable energy. Use
tools which allow to take into account high timely resolution of variable
renewable supply and electricity demand and high spatial resolution of
sources and sinks to realistically balance expansion of alternative energy
use, storage and transmission infrastructure
Quantify optimal
pathways for use of
biomass
Evaluate optimal pathways for the use of biomass taking into account
different energy vectors in the power and heat generation, transport and
residential sector
© OECD/IEA 2014
Milestones – Power sector flexibility
Metric Possible milestones and targets Proposed time
frame
Power-to-gas
(HENG)
Establish agreed maximum blend shares for different natural gas based
end use applications, both with respect to absolute limits but also with
respect to rates of changes in quality.
Investigate the storage potential of the existing natural gas grid taking into
account different points of injection of hydrogen and downstream
compatibility with end-users as well as seasonal changes in pipeline
dynamics
Expand legislation to fully take into account the benefits of lower-carbon
natural gas blends
Power-to-fuel
Prove the technological and economical viability of multiple input multiple
output demonstration plants which aim at providing energy services such
as negative control power and peak-shaving to the power grid and
hydrogen from electricity, natural gas and/or biomass to the transport
sector.
Hydrogen based
electricity storage
Adapt power market regulation to enable benefits stacking and
remuneration of all services provided by energy storage applications to the
power system such as provision of negative and positive control power,
infrastructure investment deferral or variable renewable integration.
© OECD/IEA 2014
Near term actions – Governments
Metric Possible milestones and targets Proposed time
frame
Government Push forward long term climate targets.
Strengthen fuel economy regulation, greenhouse gas emission standards
and pollutant emission regulation beyond the time frames already covered
by today’s approaches. Evaluate alternative fiscal measures to incentivize
alternative fuel vehicles, e.g. feebate systems.
Improve methods to quantify directly and indirectly occurring upstream
greenhouse gas emissions during transport fuel generation, transmission,
distribution and retail beyond the focus on carbon dioxide emissions
Plan for compensation of lower fuel tax income due to switch to alternative
fuels, which needs to exempted from taxes to incentivize technology
uptake during the first decade(s)
Establish programs for consumer information campaigns.
Establish a power market framework which allows for the adequate
remuneration of all power system services provide by energy storage
technologies
© OECD/IEA 2014
Near term actions – Governments
Metric Possible milestones and targets Proposed time
frame
Academia Provide the tools necessary to analyze the entire energy system including
all energy demand and energy supply sectors with the time-wise and
spatial resolution necessary to adequately examine synergies between
hydrogen demand, variable renewable integration and energy storage.
Improve the data on resource availability and costs necessary to
adequately examine optimal pathways of energy transformation from
primary energy to final energy in an integrated assessment modeling
environment.
Improve the tools to better represent the set-up and expansion of
hydrogen transformation, distribution and retail infrastructure based on
real GIS data and detailed localization of hydrogen sources and sinks.
Include and improve linkages between different energy infrastructure
systems (e.g. the power grid and the natural gas grids) in national energy
system modeling efforts.
© OECD/IEA 2014
Next steps
Finalizing analysis for energy storage and energy integration
Collection of case studies for several H2 projects
Integrated energy storage and transportation project
Case study power-to-gas
Case study electrolyser and control power market
Case study fuel cell micro CHP (Japan)
Further developing analysis for industry
Drafting of milestones and key actions (additional WS?)
Drafting of the document
Circulation of the document for review Q4 2014
Publishing the roadmap Q1 2015
© OECD/IEA 2014
Thank you!