preliminary results...
TRANSCRIPT
Preliminary ResultsPresentation
Year to 30 June 2007
Tuesday 11 September 2007
Alan Bowkett
Chairman
Business Focus
• Continue long term approach to land acquisition
• Progressive development of our design led approach to product
• Maintain close control of cost base
Focus on core competencies
Business Overview
• Turnover up 3.3% to £795.7m and operating profit up 2.9%
• PBT at £120.5m and eps at 52.9p - unchanged
• c.20% growth in current land bank over last two years
• Strengthened planning position as we enter 2007/08
• Balance sheet retains capacity for further investment with gearing at 31%
• Increased level of forward sales as at 30 June 2007
Senior Management Team
ChairmanAlan Bowkett
Chief ExecutiveNeil Fitzsimmons
Group Finance Director David Arnold Senior Non Exec Brian DuckworthRegional Chairman David Campbell-Kelly* Non Exec Bob BennettRegional Chairman Colin Lewis Non Exec Denise JaggerRegional Chairman John Tutte Non Exec Malcolm King
Company Secretary Graham Cope*
*David and Graham are not Main Board Directors of Redrow plc
Dividend
• Proposed final dividend of 7.8p brings full year dividend up to 15.6p(2006: 13.0p) –an increase of 20%
• Final dividend payable 16 November 2007
• Commitment to raise dividend in 2007/08 by 20%
• Dividend has increased over last five years by a compound rate of over 20%per annum
• Dividend cover reduced from 6.4 times in 2002 to 3.4 times
David Arnold
Group Finance Director
Financial Performance
2007 2006
Turnover (£m) 795.7 770.1 +3.3%
Profit before tax (£m) 120.5 120.5
EPS - basic (p) 52.9 52.9
Net assets per share (p) 361.5 322.0 +12.3%
Capital employed (£m) 755.4 643.6
ROCE (%) 19.4 22.0
Year to June
Profit Analysis
Year to June2007 2006£m £m
Operating profitHomes 129.7 133.8 -3.1%Mixed Use & Regeneration 6.6 0.7Framing Solutions (0.7) (0.8)Jersey provision - (2.0)
135.6 131.7 +3.0%Add back share of JV operating losses 1.0 1.1Operating profit (IAS reported) 136.6 132.8 +2.9%Net financing costs (15.3) (11.5)Share of JV losses after interest and tax (0.8) (0.8)Profit before tax 120.5 120.5
Product ProfileLegal Completions
2007 2006
Completions Units Units
Signature 3,689 4,027
In the City 537 495
Debut 502 213
Homes 4,728 4,735 -0.1%
Regeneration 95 –
Group 4,823 4,735 +1.9%
Product ProfileAverage Selling Prices
2007 2006
Ave. selling price £000 £000
Signature 167.9 166.2
In the City 182.2 160.2
Debut 79.1 79.2
Homes 160.1 161.7 -1.0%
Regeneration 148.3 –
Group 159.9 161.7 -1.1%
Homes –Trading Performance
2007 2006
Units 4,728 4,735ASP (£000) 160.1 161.7 -1.0%
£m £mTurnover 757.0 765.5 -1.1%
2007 2006
Trading contribution 159.6 168.9 -5.5% 21.1% 22.1%
Land sales 15.1 8.9 2.0% 1.1%
Gross contribution 174.7 177.8 -1.7% 23.1% 23.2%
Overhead (45.0) (44.0) -2.3% (6.0%) (5.7%)
Operating profit 129.7 133.8 -3.1% 17.1% 17.5%
% of Turnover
Build Cost
Specification enhancements 1.4%
Cost of building regulation changes 0.9%
Labour and material increases 0.7%
Value engineering (0.4%)
2.6%
• Benchmark housebuild costs increased by c.2.6% in 2006/07
• Overall build cost pressures on labour and materials remain relatively benign
Overheads
• Three Midlands companies combined into single operation run from Tamworth
• South West and West Country businesses combined under Bristol office withsatellite presence maintained in Exeter
• Changes to Main Board and reductions in headcount at Head Office
• Capacity for growth maintained with resources focused upon front line supportand land acquisition
• 2007/08 overhead cost expected to be no higher than 2006/07 which shouldbenefit operating margins
Mixed Use & Regen
2007 2006
Regeneration Homes (units) 95 -Regeneration Homes ASP (£000s) 148.3 -
£m £mTurnover 38.7 4.6
Operating profit 6.6 0.7Add back JV operating loss 0.3 0.3IAS operating profit 6.9 1.0
Framing Solutions
• Board has considered the position of Framing Solutions, the Group’s50:50 joint venture with Corus
• Redrow’s share of loss after interest and tax was £0.6m (2006: £0.6m)
• Our involvement has enabled us to gain a greater understanding of modernmethods of construction (MMC)
• MMC now more prevalent and market more established
• Direct involvement in this area of activity no longer required
Capital Employed
Jun 2007 Dec 2006 Jun 2006
£m £m £m
Fixed assets and investments 28.6 28.5 26.6
Stocks 988.7 915.0 849.6
Land creditors (124.2) (90.2) (78.3)
Other assets/(liabilities) exc net debt (143.8) (125.1) (145.7)
Pensions 6.1 (2.6) (8.6)
Capital employed 755.4 725.6 643.6
Stocks
Jun 2007 Dec 2006 Jun 2006
£m £m £m
Land 634.0 576.0 522.5
Work in progress 306.8 301.9 295.6
Part Exchange 9.8 6.8 6.6
Showhomes 14.2 14.7 14.2
Homes 964.8 899.4 838.9
Mixed Use & Regeneration 23.9 15.6 10.7
Group 988.7 915.0 849.6
Cash Flow
Year to June2007 2006£m £m
Operating profit (pre Joint Ventures) 136.6 132.8Increase in land net of land creditors (72.5) (63.9)Increase in other working capital (35.9) (26.7)Capex and investments net of depreciation (3.1) (3.4)Tax, financing and dividends (72.9) (65.4)Net cash flow (47.8) (26.6)Net debt brought fwd (129.8) (103.2)Net debt carried fwd (177.6) (129.8)
Pensions
• DB section now closed to new entrants
• Completed one-off contributions in 2006/07 in respect of deficit on DB section
• Now paying normal employer monthly contributions only
• £6.1m pre tax surplus as at 30 June 2007
• Triennial valuation due 30 June 2008
Financing
Jun 2007 Jun 2006
£m £m
Capital employed 755.4 643.6
Net borrowings (177.6) (129.8)
Net assets 577.8 513.8
Gearing 31% 25%
Interest cover 8.9 11.5
Committed bank facilities total £400m£300m syndicated facility matures November 2009
Neil Fitzsimmons
Chief Executive
Key Points
• Progress in growing current landholdings and improving quality offorward land bank
– strengthened position in terms ofplanning
– increased proportion ofallocations in forward land
– first contribution from RedrowRegeneration
Key Points
• Increased focus on urban design as apoint of differentiation
– engage more positively withplanners
– enhances desirability and value ofour product
Key Points
• Reviewed our operational structure
– improved efficiency in terms offixed cost
– retain capability to grow ourbusiness
Key Points
We are focused on our corecompetencies. Our continuing longterm strategy in land acquisition andour design led approach to product
reaffirms historic values and strengthsin Redrow
Land –The Key toProfitability and Growth
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Plo
ts
Owned Controlled
• c.10% compound growth rate incurrent land bank in last 2 years
• Current land bank over 4.25years
• Owned land bank with planningincreased to 17,700 plotsrepresenting over 3.5 years onan historic basis
• 97.5% of 2007/08 expectedoutput has a detailed andimplementable planning consent
Current land bank
Land –The Key toProfitability and Growth
30%25%
30%
42%
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forward Land Current Land
• 24,400 plots with realisticprospect of securing planning
• Approximately 40% of plots areallocations
• Significant contribution tocurrent land bank
Forward land bankcontribution to land acquired
Land –Analysis of Market
Forward Land
Jennett’s Park,Bracknell,Berkshire750 plots
Farnborough CentralFarnborough,
Hants500 plots
Redrow @ Love’s FarmSt. Neots,Cambridge250 plots
Current LandOpen Market
Current LandAdded Value
Land –Acquisition Strategy
• Continue to source and promote high quality forward land opportunities tomaintain contribution of higher margin sites
– 30% of net additions in 2006/07 through forward land
• Focus on added value opportunities to deliver sites at better margins than theopen market
• Use open market current land to support land acquisitions
Land –Acquisition Strategy
• Create value in large sites
– opportunity to enhance marginsthrough optimising planning andquality of design
– release value at appropriatetime for efficient use of capital
– trade land to secure additionaloutlets Cheswick Bristol
1,250 plots
Land Bank Analysis
Jun 2007 Jun 2006Current LandLand with planning 17,700 * 16,750 *Contracted plots 3,000 4,250Current land total 20,700 21,000
Forward LandForward land with planning – 100Allocations 10,300 9,000
10,300 9,100Realistic prospect 14,100 15,600Forward land total 24,400 24,700
*Includes 420 plots in Redrow Regeneration (2006: 250)
Homes:Land Owned with Planning
Jun Jun2007 2006Plots Plot Cost Plots Plot Cost
£000 £000Plots b/f 16,500 31.0 15,800 28.5Additions 5,508 43.9 5,435 33.9Cost of sales (4,728) (26.7) (4,735) (26.0)Plot c/f 17,280 36.3 16,500 31.0
ASP in period £160,100 £161,700
Cost of sales in period as% of ASP 16.7% 16.1%
Estimated ASP of ownedland bank with planning £178,000 £169,000
Plot cost at period endas % of ASP in land bank 20.4% 18.3%
Homes:Land Bank Owned with Planning
• Higher pull through from forward land –30% (2006: 25%)
• Lower abnormal and servicing costs on plots acquired in 2006/07
• Additions included a higher proportion of Signature plots –91% (2006: 87%)
• Increase in land bank in South East to support future growth
– 31% of net additions (2006: 15%)
– 20% of land bank owned with planning at June 2007 (2006: 16%)
• Average selling price of net additions to land bank = c£180,000
Forward Land Bank
• Continued progress in promotingforward land –30% of net additions in2006/07
• Resolution to grant planningCranbrook, Exeter (480 plots)Monkton Heathfield, Taunton (350 plots)
• Planning applications submittedUpton, Northampton (850 plots)Barton Seagrave, Kettering (325 plots)Bishopton, Glasgow (1,600 plots)
Bishopton (1,600)
Ayrshire (200)
Widnes ( 600)
Ellesmere Port (750)
Chester (600)
Bicester (500)
North Cardiff (2,000)
Taunton (600)
Swindon (900)
Exeter (900)
North Tamworth (400)
Sherburn (1,000)
Fareham (650) Chichester (1,250)
Lichfield (650)
Significant Forward Land Opportunities (Plots)
Pontefract (250)
Witham (700)
Aylesbury (200)
Northampton (850)
Tilbury (1,300)
Kettering (325)
East Yorkshire (400)
Homes Company Structure
• Regional office structure
– improved fixed cost efficiency
– retained capacity for growth
• Key growth opportunities
– Scotland: strengthened landbank
– South West: capitalise oninvestment in Cheswick
– West Country: utilise strengthof forward land bank
– South East: increase output ingrowth areas
Chorley, Lancashire
Warrington, North West
Cardiff, South Wales
Bristol, South West
Exeter, West Country
Falkirk, Scotland
Basingstoke, Southern
Company Structure
Northampton,South Midlands
Wakefield, Yorkshire
Tamworth, Midlands
Basildon, Eastern
Product:The Catalyst to Convert Land into Profit
• Promote high quality design
– enhances competitiveness in theland market
– optimisation of returns throughcoverage and marketability ofproduct
– facilitates delivery of planning inshorter timescales
– delivers additional value fromcustomers Tiddy Brook Meadows, Tavistock
Product:The Catalyst to Convert Land into Profit
• Directors of Design in place in thethree regional teams
• Design Centre of Excellenceestablished in Northampton in2006/07
• Design Centres of Excellence beingestablished in North West andBristol in 2007/08
• Promotion of high quality urbandesign by training@redrow with linksto Oxford Brookes and CABE Ley Vale, Frome
Product:The Catalyst to Convert Land into Profit
• Continued focus on core housetypes
– allows flexibility to meet localneeds
– provides range to optimisecoverage and marketability
– drives efficiency in build andability to value engineer
– maximises benefits from Groupbuying Cressington Heath, Liverpool
Introduction of AffordableDebut Product
• Affordability remains an issue in thehousing market
• Debut appeals to target marketproviding open market affordablenew homes
• Delivered 502 Debut homes in2006/07 (2005/06: 213)
• Increase in output in 2007/08 toc.600 units
• Part of portfolio to unlock value Debut @ Hilton
Development of IncrementalIncome StreamsMixed Use
• Strong performance from existingmixed use schemes
– Buckshaw Village
– St David’s Park
• Additional mixed use developmentscoming on stream
– Lichfield 40,000 sq ft offices
– Devonport 100,000 sq ft offices,retail and community
– Cheswick 72,000 sq ft officesand retail
• Potential major new mixed usedevelopment at Bishopton
– 1.5m sq ft of employment andcommunity development
Matrix Park, Buckshaw Village
Development of IncrementalIncome Streams
Regeneration
• Barking –Phase 1
– 95 legal completions and Lifelong LearningCentre delivered in 2006/07
– 151 legal completions in 2007/08 –all sold
• Barking –Phase 2
– Planning secured in June 2007 for 272new homes and 40,000 sq ft of commercialspace
– 96 units reserved as at June 2007
– Delivery commences 2008/09
• Continuing progress
– Anticipate Watford application in 2008Phase 1 Barking Town Square
Sales Market
• Sales Performance 2006/07
2006/07 2005/06
Homes Regen Total Homes Regen Total
b/f 1,772 246 2,018 1,978 - 1,978
Sales 4,857 96 4,953 4,529 246 4,775
Legal completions (4,728) (95) (4,823) (4,735) - (4,735)
c/f 1,901 247 2,148 1,772 246 2,018
Homes Total
Sales in 2006/07 +7.2% +3.7%
Forward sales at June 07 +7.3% +6.4%
Sales Market
• Sales Performance 2006/07
– market stable but competitive against backdrop of four interest raterises from August 2006 to June 2007
– stronger market conditions experienced in South East and Scotland
– sales of Signature and In the City homes together up 3.5% insecond half of financial year
Sales Market
• Forward Sales Position
• Signature forward sales represent c.18 weeks sales
• Signature c.30% sold (plot specific) for 2007/08
• ITC just over 40% sold for 2007/08 on 4 developments
• Debut approaching 50% sold for 2007/08 - 7 ongoing sites + 2 additional launches
2006/07 2005/06
Signature 1,450 1,171
In the City 168 366
Debut 283 235
Homes 1,901 1,772 +7.3%
Regeneration 247 246
2,148 2,018 +6.4%
Business Outlook
Sales Market
• Key factor in the outcome for 2007/08 will be strength of demand in our markets
• Difficult to assess market based on July and August
• Selling prices secured in new financial year in line with our expectations
• Interest rates appear to be influencing consumer confidence and housingmarkets as we move into Autumn selling season
• Retain a careful balance between selling prices and rate of sale to optimisereturns from our land bank
Business Outlook
Response to Market
• Increased level of forward sales as at June 2007
• On track to increase outlets in new financial year
– expect c.6% growth in Signature outlets in 2007/08
• Benefit to volumes in 2007/08 of c.100 additional social housing units
• 97.5% of 2007/08 anticipated volumes have a detailed, implementable planningconsent
• Retain balance between selling prices and rate of sale to optimise returnsfrom our land bank
Looking Forward
• Projection for household formations continues to underpin need for new homes
– 223,000 new households per annum from 2004 to 2026 in England
• Housing at centre of Government agenda
– 3m new homes by 2020
• Planning system continues to be inefficient
–‘top down’v ‘bottom up’conflict
• Challenge of sustainability increasing complexity of development
– 2016 zero carbon commitment
Looking Forward
• Focus on core competencies to increase output through regional structures
– growth opportunities in Scotland, South West and South East
• Maintain added value approach to land acquisition
– historic strength in long term approach
• Use product portfolio to unlock value from opportunities
– no specific focus on individual elements
• Promote high quality design to differentiate product
– reinvigorate part of our heritage
• Retain close management of cost base
– use of core housetypes and efficient overhead structure
• Provide high quality group support services to facilitate growth in the operatingcompanies
Looking Forward
‘Our land bank, product and experiencedmanagement teams will enable us to address the
challenges and take advantage of theopportunities in our market place for the benefit
of shareholders in the coming years’
Neil Fitzsimmons - Chief Executive