preliminary results fy18 - talktalk groupc8cba402-711c... · sky entertainment tv & unlimited...
TRANSCRIPT
24 May 2018
Preliminary Results FY18
Agenda
01
FY18 Review
Financial Review
Strategy & Outlook
Q&A
Tristia Harrison
Kate Ferry
Tristia Harrison
All
Full Year 2018 Review
Performance is on track; good growth and financials in line with guidance
03
Ruthlessly prioritise our core strengths
Less capital intensive priorities
Reminder of FY18 Strategy
Never been a better time to be the value provider of fixed connectivity
Value propositions in Consumer and B2B are working
Fixed Low Price Plans (“FLPP”) have resonance
Performance on track
− Good base growth in Consumer and B2B
− Strong Q4 performance
− EBITDA in line with revised guidance
Simplification in B2B; Full fibre (“FTTP”) plans on track
04
Sale of Direct B2B business
− TalkTalk plan to sell its direct B2B business to Daisy for £175m
− Transaction will impact Group EBITDA by c.£15m in FY19
− Direct business contains c.80,000 customers (c.17% of revenue)
− Underpins strategy to focus on our core, high-growth partner and
wholesale B2B channels where we are Britain’s largest provider of
wholesale broadband and have the fastest growing Ethernet base
− These customers will be served by Daisy but will remain on TalkTalk’s
network via a new wholesale agreement
− The proposed sale will further strengthen the balance sheet and
support continued investment in growth and FTTP
FTTP
− FTTP plans are progressing well
− Appointment of Chair, Paul Reynolds
− Appointment of CEO, Charles Bligh
− York roll out continues well
Financial Review
06
Item Guidance Actual
Net Adds 150k-160k 192k
EBITDA £230m-£245m £233m
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.0x 3.0x
Revenue (excluding Off-Net and Carrier) Growth +1%
Capex 6%-7% 7.7%
FY18 performance in line with guidance
Strong momentum on KPIs
07
Fifth consecutive quarter of growth
Churn at lowest ever levels
Nearly 70% of the Consumer base on fixed price plans
Strong momentum in fibre
Continued growth in Ethernet circuits in B2B
(9)(20)
(42)
22 20 26 37
109
Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18
BB Net Adds On Net Churn
1.5% 1.7%1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2%
H1'16 H2'16 H1'17 H2'17 H1'18 H2'18
Fibre Net Adds
36 40
74 73 72 89 89 98
Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18
31 35 39 43 47 51
H1'16 H2'16 H1'17 H2'17 H1'18 H2'18
EFM & Ethernet Base
Total FLPP Base
602 993
1,272 1,621 1,843 2,029
Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18
EBITDA in line with guidance; reflecting investment in growth
08
FY18£’m
FY17£’m
Headline revenue 1,658 1,720
Headline revenue (excluding Carrier and Off-net) 1,564 1,555
Gross profit 884 953
Margin 53.3% 55.4%
Operating costs & SAC (651) (592)
Headline EBITDA 233 361
Margin 14.1% 21.0%
Headline profit after taxation 18 154
Headline EPS (Basic) 1.8p 16.2p
Dividend per share 4.00p 10.29p
* PY revenue has been adjusted to exclude MVNO revenue of £63m and PY EBITDA has been adjusted to exclude MVNO losses of £28m and restatement of £29m claims from non-Headline items to Headline
*
Radical simplification gives rise to one-off transformational costs
09
FY18
P&L
Cash
£97m
£73m
P&L− Exit mobile strategy - £33m
− MVNO operating loss - £13m
− Group organisational structure - £34m
− Network transformation - £17m
Cash− Relates to above P&L costs, as well as timing of final
Making TalkTalk Simpler (“MTTS”) payments
− Deemed consent receipt not included
Looking forward− Non-headline items, both P&L and cash, expected to
be lower year on year
Costs / Supplier compensation
10
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Costs incurred in Headline P&L
Settlement claims booked in Headline P&L
Settlement claims previously booked in Exceptional items
Removal of MVNO losses from Headline numbers: +£28m impact to FY17 reported number (+£13m in FY18)
Matching supplier compensation and related costs in Headline numbers: +£29m impact to FY17 reported number
1% revenue growth year on year
11
£1,555m
£16m£11m
£14m
£1,564m
FY17 On Net Data Voice FY18
FLPP ARPU dilution and lower average Consumer base, offset by Fibre penetration and legacy base price rises.
Strong growth in Ethernet circuits (+8.3k) driving data revenue growth
Base growth in IP Voice
£26.84
£0.50£0.35 £0.29
£0.37
£26.03
FY17 FLPPDilution
Fibre & TVBoosts
VoiceUsage
Consumer/ B2B Mix
FY18
FLPP resonating with customers; short term ARPU dilution
12
Dilution effect of FLPP
Growth in Fibre base and uptake of TV Boosts
Continued decline in Voice usage
Higher mix of wholesale customers in the base
ARPU will stabilise in FY19
55.4%
1.3%
1.2%
0.2% 0.3%0.3%
53.3%
FY17 Suppliercompensation
FLPP Dilution Declining Off-net
Data Growth Carrier FY18
Simplified disclosure and FLPP take up effect year on year gross margin
13
Reduction in disputed network credits
FLPP ARPU dilution impact
Growth in high margin Ethernet base accretive to margin
Reduction in low margin Carrier revenue year on year
Investment in growth resulting in higherSAC & Marketing costs as anticipated
14
Planned investment in base growth
− Investment in volume
− CPAs continue to come down
Increased cost to serve
Network investment
Opex£437m
Opex£448m
SAC£155m
SAC£203m
FY17 FY18
£592m£651m
3.0x Net Debt/EBITDA in line with guidance
15
FY18£’m
FY17£’m
Opening Headline Net Debt (782) (679)
Headline EBITDA 233 361
Working Capital (50) (56)
Capital Expenditure (128) (133)
Operating Free Cash Flow 55 172
Interest & Taxation (46) (33)
Free Cash Flow 9 139
Non-Headline items (73) (75)
Acquisitions (8) (18)
Dividends (71) (150)
Share Issue 201 1
Net Cash Flow 58 (103)
Closing Headline Net Debt (724) (782)
Net Debt / EBITDA* 3.0x 2.2x
* As calculated for the purposes of the Group’s borrowings
Cash inflow of £58m for FY18
ARPU dilution and planned investment in growth has seen lower cash generation
Higher rate of interest on bond issued late in FY17
Dividend: Final FY17 dividend (5.00p) and interim FY18 dividend (2.50p)
Share issue raised £201m (net of expenses)
Illustrative FY19 Cash Flow
16
FY19 cash inflow
Lower year on year non-Headline items from simplifying the business
Direct B2B sale proceeds: £175m
FY19 net debt/EBITDA comfortably within all covenants
Balance sheet strengthened –supporting continued investment in growth and FTTP
FY18 NetDebt
15% EBITDAGrowth
Capex £110m Dividend£30m
Other * Non-HeadlineItems
FY19 NetDebt
Direct B2BSale Proceeds
Direct B2BEBITDA
Adjusted NetDebt
3.0x
* Other includes working capital, interest and taxation and acquisitions
17
Results and guidance published today are pre-IFRS 15 and 16 adjustments
We are making good progress on implementing IFRS 15
Finalising an automated system solution to enable opening balance sheet adjustment and ongoing reporting
We expect IFRS 15 to have a minimal impact on EBITDA (guidance unchanged)
Q1 results will be under IFRS 15
IFRS 16 will be implemented in FY20 – the group continues to monitor the practical implications within the Telco industry
IFRS 15 and 16
Exit the year with good momentum and a firm foundation for growth
Growth KPIs are encouraging
Significantly lower P&L and cash non-Headline items in FY19
Focus on cash
Stronger balance sheet
Confidence in FY19 outlook: 15% EBITDA growth
− Revenue growth from stabilising ARPU and larger average base
− WLA savings contributing to margin improvement
− Other significant cost reductions
EBITDA impact of removing Direct B2B business from FY19 is c.£15m
18
Our Plan
Our plan remains unchanged
20
Clear space for value challenger of fixed connectivity
Opportunity for a value provider of fixed connectivity as large today as ever
Customers consuming exponential data –with growth in OTT content viewing such as Amazon, YouTube and Netflix
Reliability of connection is therefore critical
Incumbents protecting premium bases –driving up industry ARPU’s
Clear space for value challenger
21
Simple, affordable and reliable fixed Broadband
Core Products
Voice
No price rises for the length of your plan
TV Mobile
Add-ons
£18.95 a month
for 24 months, includes line rental
£25 a month
for 24 months, includes line rental
Price certainty is working with customers; early re-contracting behaviour is encouraging
Focus on core, fixed connectivity has real momentum
We have invested in equalising the front and back-book
Short-term dilution impact on ARPU but higher proportion of base now in contract contributing to lowest ever churn
Early signs on out of contract behaviour are positive
− Number of customers re-contracting is encouraging
− Customer churn has been positive and below our expectation
− ARPU’s for those that re-contract are 2-3% higher
22
Stabilising ARPU
23
Further FLPP dilution (remaining out of contract base to recontract and new acquisitions contracting at competitive prices)
Re-contracts and new acquisition at higher price point
End of FLPP contract price rise
Fibre penetration and TV, Mobile and Call Boosts
Consumer : B2B base mix
Legacy out of contract base price rise
Material savings vs competitors, up to £468
24
FTTC (40)
BB + TV
£887
£861
£944
£944
£719*
n/a
£555
Starter TV & Unlimited Broadband &
Weekend CallsPlayer Bundle & Weekend Calls
£600**
£657**
£783
£1125
Unlimited Infinity 1 & Weekend
CallsVivid 100 &
Weekend CallsUnlimited Fibre &
No Calls
Unlimited Fibre (38Mbs) &
Weekend Calls Super Fast 1Fibre Unlimited
& No Calls
Sky Entertainment TV & Unlimited Broadband & No
calls
Copper £727 n/a £599* £577
£767
£464** £585*
Vivid 50 & Weekend Calls
Unlimited Broadband & No
CallsBroadband &
Weekend Calls
Unlimited Standard BB 17 +
No calls
Unlimited Broadband & No
calls
Unlimited Broadband &
Weekend Calls
£726* n/a£857
YouView TV + Unlimited BB
EE TV + Unlimited BB
TalkTalk Pricing Cheaper than TalkTalk More expensive than TalkTalk
Prices correct 22/05/18. 24 month cost comparison, Promotional prices based on nearest like for like packages, including connection fees and excluding vouchers. Standard price applies after contract ends. * 12month contract. ** 24month contract.
Select TV & Unlimited Broadband & No calls
Compelling (capital light) TV & Mobile offering underpinning churn reduction and stabilising ARPU
25
TalkTalk Business: A Re-cap
26
c.17%
Wholesale
&
Partner
Direct Over 1 million B2B customers – of which only c.80,000 come through direct channel
Real strength in indirect channel – Britain’s largest supplier of wholesale and B2B2C broadband
Providing simple, affordable and reliable connectivity to our Partners and Wholesale customers
Sale of direct B2B business allows us to focus exclusively on growing the indirect channel
No longer competing with our Partner and Wholesale customers in direct B2B market
Split of c.£600m B2B revenue
Comparable customer lifetime values in Consumer and B2B broadband
27
Consumer FLPP B2B Broadband*
Consumer FLPP customers come with higher ARPU
With much of the cost to serve outsourced, B2B broadband customers incur less customer service and billing costs, as well as lower SAC & Marketing
Overall EBITDA contribution of a Consumer FLPP and B2B broadband customer is broadly the same
Agnostic where growth comes from
Separately Ethernet has significantly higher revenue, margin and EBITDA
Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
* B2B Broadband excludes high margin data products
Customer Lifetime Value
Network improvement on track and delivering for customers
28
●
The largest unbundled broadband and Ethernet network
750 exchanges upgraded to our new access network topology (ANT) − resilience cost− 4 x footprint increase for Ethernet
Introduction of High capacity bandwidth services (10Gb-100Gb) underway for delivery this year
Increased focus on product engineering with increased in-home diagnostic and testing capability
Network Technology
◑
◑
◑
43% year on year growth of core peak capacity implemented - maintaining zero customer congestion
We have extended our optical capacity with increased deployment of 100Gb technology
Largest upgrade and deployment of Netflix content caching in Europe
Core Capacity
New DLM, DNS & Parental controls fully deployed
Introduced cloud based analytics index covering network and last mile and in-home customer experience.
Self optimizing core network to improve resilience and performance deployed and on track for roll out this year
Network Systems
◑
◑
●
●●
Customer sentiment
29
Good improvement
Churn NPS
1.5% 1.7%1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2%
H1'16 H2'16 H1'17 H2'17 H1'18 H2'18
(Source: GfK Customer Experience Tracker)
Much still to do Stable operation Improved connectivity
Cost efficiencies underpinning 15% EBITDA improvement
Attacking costs
Simplified strategy focusing on fixed connectivity
Capital-light approach to non-core activity
Radical shift to self-serve
Rigorous review of external spend and organisational structure
Regulatory tailwinds
− WLA savings for FTTC services
30
People sentiment; agile culture; value mentality
New Location
Building a Great Place to Work
Graduates and Apprenticeships
Colleague recognition
Diversity and Inclusion
Colleague recommendation
31
TalkTalk Group Reviews
Full fibre plans on track
FTTP plans progressing well
− Paul Reynolds appointed Chair
− Charles Bligh appointed CEO
− Wholesale agreements progressing
Plans progressing with next wave of locations for build in early 2019
York continues to deliver strong performance
− Penetration of first phase over 33%
− Outstanding customer advocacy; NPS +47
− Making good progress on next phase of build
− Encouraging network innovation to reduce construction cost – ducts, poles, MDUs, active cabinets
32
Outlook
Full year outlook
Headline revenue growth
Stabilising ARPU
Base growth as per previous guidance (more than 150k)
Continuing strong Ethernet growth in TalkTalk Business (TTB) consistent with FY18
Before adjusting for the impact of the Daisy transaction we expect to deliver 15% EBITDA growth in FY19 as a result of a larger customer base, stabilising ARPU, material WLA savings and other significant cost reductions
Final dividend of 1.5p consistent with new dividend policy announced at Q3
Completion of sale of direct B2B business to Daisy by the end of July and FTTP plans on track
34
Q&A