Preliminary Analysis and Classification of Natural Disasters

Prof. S.C. Wirasinghe, PEng (APEGA)

Ms. H.J. Caldera

Ms. S.W. Durage

SCHULICH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

WES 2013

Singapore

September 2013

Outline

• Natural Hazards Vs. Natural Disaster

• Proposed Definitions for Natural Events

• Fatality Based Disaster Scale

• Advantages of the Scale

• Limitations

• Conclusions

Natural Hazards

Natural Disasters

• Natural hazards

– Uncontrollable forces

• Natural disasters

– Consequence of natural hazards interacting with

human activity & infrastructure

– Adversely affects human (& animal) communities

• Human vulnerability

• Different terminology

– No clear sense of scale

– No consistent method

to define events

– The vocabulary, context and the interpretations of

each term is not fixed in the literature

(Kelman; 2008)

• Need consistent scale to describe the disaster

continuum

Background

Objectives

• A scale for disasters

– impacted population; fatalities, affected area,

damaged homes; economic cost

• Multidimensional scale

• A preliminary scale

– Top ten fatality records for a selected set of disasters

Dictionary Emergency Disaster Catastrophe Calamity Cataclysm

Oxford A serious,

unexpected, and

often dangerous

situation requiring

immediate action

A sudden accident or a

natural catastrophe

that causes great

damage or loss of life

An event causing great and

usually sudden damage or

suffering; a disaster

An event causing

great and often

sudden damage or

distress; a disaster

A large-scale and violent

event in the natural world

Merriam-

Webster

An urgent need for

assistance or relief

A sudden calamitous

event bringing great

damage, loss, or

destruction

A violent and sudden

change in a feature of

the earth

A violent usually

destructive natural

event (as a

supernova)

A disastrous event

marked by great loss

and lasting distress

and suffering

Flood, deluge

Catastrophe

Dictionary.r

eference.co

m

A state, especially of

need for

help or relief, created

by some unexpected

event

A calamitous event,

especially one

occurring suddenly and

causing great loss of

life, damage, or

hardship, as a flood,

airplane crash, or

business failure.

A sudden and

widespread disaster

Geology. A sudden,

violent disturbance,

especially of a part of

the surface of the

earth; cataclysm.

A great misfortune or

disaster, as a flood or

serious injury.

Physical

Geography. A

sudden and violent

physical action

producing changes

in the earth's

surface.

An extensive flood;

deluge.

Various Definitions

Dictionary Emergency Disaster Catastrophe Calamity Cataclysm

Google

Glossary

A serious, unexpected, and

often dangerous situation

requiring immediate action.

A sudden event, such as an

accident or a natural

catastrophe, that causes

great damage or loss of life.

An event causing great and

often sudden damage or

suffering

An event causing

great and often sudden

damage or distress; a

disaster.

Disaster and distress

A large-scale and violent

event in the natural world.

Thefreedicti

onary.com

A serious situation or

occurrence that

happens

unexpectedly and

demands immediate

action.

A condition of

urgent need for

action or assistance

An occurrence causing

widespread destruction and

distress; a catastrophe

A great, often sudden

calamity

A sudden violent

change in the earth's

surface; a cataclysm

An event that brings terrible

loss, lasting distress, or

severe affliction; a disaster

A violent upheaval that

causes great destruction

or brings about a

fundamental change.

A violent and sudden

change in the earth's

crust.

A devastating flood.

Wikipedia A situation that poses an

immediate risk to health,

life,

property or environment

A natural or man -made

hazard resulting in an event

of substantial extent causing

significant physical damage

or destruction, loss of life, or

drastic change to the

environment.

An extremely large-scale

disaster, a horrible event.

A disaster, a terrible event Any

catastrophic geological

phenomenon (volcanic

eruption, earthquake),

the result of a sudden

release of energy in the

Earth's crust that creates

seismic waves

More generally any

large-scale disaster

Various Definitions Contd.

Proposed Draft Order & Definitions for Natural Events

• EMERGENCY: A sudden natural event that causes damage, injuries and some

fatalities

• DISASTER: A major natural event that causes significant damage, many

serious injuries and many fatalities

• CATASTROPHE: A large scale natural disturbance that causes severe

destruction, major amount of injuries and extensive fatalities

• CALAMITY: A very large scale natural disturbance that causes widespread

destruction, massive amount of injuries and a great loss of life

• CATACLYSM: An extremely large scale natural upheaval, that causes

widespread devastation, uncountable amount of injuries and unimaginable

loss of life

Severity Levels of a Flood

Emergency

Disaster

CatastropheCalamity

Cataclysm

Disaster Profile

Sub-Sub Type

Sub-TypeMain TypeGroup

Types of disasterNatural disasters

Biological events

Geophysical events

Mass movement dry (triggered by ground

shaking)

AvalancheSnow avalancheDebris avalanche

Rock fall

Landslide

Mudslide

LaharsDebris flow

Subsidence

Sudden subsidence

Long-lasting subsidenceEarthquakes

Ground shakingTsunamis

Volcanoes Volcanic eruption

Meteorological events

Storms

Tropical cyclones/ storms

HurricanesTyphoonsCyclones

Extra tropical cyclones

Winter storms

Local/ Convective storms

Severe/ Generic storms

Thunderstorms/ LightningHailstorms

Snowstorms/ Blizzard

TornadoesSandstorms/ Dust

storms

Orographic storms/ Strong winds

Hydrological events

Floods

General (river) floods

Flash floodsStorm surges/ Coastal floods

Mass movement wet

Rock fallsLandslides Debris flow

AvalanchesSnow avalancheDebris avalanche

SubsidenceSudden subsidence

Long-lasting subsidence

Climatological events

Extraterrestrial events

Meteorite/ Asteroid

Manmade Disasters

Sub- Sub Type

Selected Set of Disasters

• Earthquake

• Flash flood

• Flood

• Forest fire

• Landslide

• Lightning

• Cyclone

• Hurricane

• Tornado

• Meteoroid strike

• Tsunami

• Volcano eruption

Type Fatalities Year Event

Cyclone/ Hurricane 500,000 1970 Bhola cyclone - East Pakistan (now Bangladesh)

Earthquake 830,000 1556 Shaanxi Province, China

Flash Flood 2,200 1889 Dam Failure-Johnstown, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.

Flood 2,500,000 1931 Yangtze, Huai and Yellow River- Central China

Forest fire 1,200 1871 Peshtigo Fire - Wisconsin, U.S.A.

Land slide 100,000 1920 Ningxia, China

Lightning 4000 1856 Palace of the Grand Master Explosion-Rhodes, Greece

Meteoroid Not Available

Tornado 1,300 1989 Daulatpur-Salturia Tornado - Manikganj, Bangladesh

Tsunami 230,273 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand

Volcano 92,000 1815 Mount Tambora - Indonesia

Deadliest Events

Factors that Distinguish One Disaster from the Other

• Physical Aspects

• Prediction/Detection

Type Definition Magnitude

Occurrence

(Frequency/No. of

Events)

Flood

An overflow of a large

amount of water beyond its

normal limits, especially

over what is normally dry

land

Peak level of the water

at a particular location in

a waterway

“100-year flood” or “500-

year flood” to convey the

idea of the frequency of

a flood of certain

magnitude

Type

Ability to

Detect and

Track

Mechanism Estimated Time

Flood Can be predicted Using Rainfall intensity measurements,

river flow data and prediction modelsDays

Factors that Distinguish One Disaster from the Other Contd.

• Impacts

• Mitigation Measures

Type Mitigation

FloodFlood Barriers; Structural measures to improve flood safety in housing construction;

Early warning systems; land use restrictions

Type FatalitiesTotal No. of

Affected PeopleArea Destroyed

Economic

Loss

Damage

Extent

Flood

2,500,000-

1931 China

floods

238,973,000-

China P Rep,

General flood-

1998

Thailand: Phichit,

Nakhon Sawan, Phra

Nakhon Si

Ayuttaya, Pathumthani,

Nonthaburi, Bangkok-

Thailand, 2011

Economic

damage cost-

US$ 40,000

million -

Thailand, 2011

City-Region-

Continent

Extreme Value Distribution (EVD)

• EVDs are the limiting distributions for the largest or the smallest of a very large collection of random observations from the same arbitrary distribution

• For example

– Flood frequency analysis : 100 year flood discharge

– Reliability modelling : System failure time

Extreme Value Distribution contd.

• Three related ways of identifying extremes in real data– Block maxima

(X2, X6,X15,X16,X23)

– The largest (rth) order statistics within blocks• 2nd order statistics

(X2,X3,X6,X8,X12,X15,X16,X18,X23,X25)

– Extremes that exceed a high threshold

(X2,X3,X6,X7,X8,X15,X23,X24,X25)

2500000210000017000001300000900000500000100000

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Fatality

Fre

qu

en

cy

Shape 0.4095

Scale 37496

N 97

Weibull Histogram of Fatality

Fatality Based Disaster Classification

• Top 10 fatality records for each disaster type– Mean : 112,135 and standard deviation : 290,807

EVD for Each Type of Disaster

Type of Disaster Extreme Value Distribution

Cyclone/ Hurricane

Earthquake

Flash Flood

Flood

Forest fire

Land slide

Lightning

Meteoroid

Tornado Frechet (α=1.14213, µ=0, σ=2.01878) = exp {- (x/2.01878)-1.14213}

Tsunami

Volcano Frechet (α=0.440009, µ=0, σ=8.96027) = exp {- (x/8.96027)-0.440009}

Extreme Tornado Outbreaks for United States

Fatality Based Disaster Scale• µ ~ 100,000 and σ~ 300,000

• Lowest limit of fatality(F) = μ-0.33333σ = 1

Type Fatality Range Example

Emergency µ-0.33333σ ≤ F < µ-0.3333σ 1 ≤ F < 10 A small landslide that kills one person

Disaster Type 1 µ-0.3333σ ≤ F < µ-0.333σ 10 ≤ F < 100Edmonton tornado, Canada -1987 that

killed 27 people

Disaster Type 2 µ-0.333σ ≤ F < µ-0.33σ 100 ≤ F < 1,000Thailand flood-2011 that resulted in a total

of 815 deaths

Catastrophe Type 1 µ-0.33σ ≤ F < µ-0.3σ 1,000 ≤ F < 10,000Hurricane Katrina-2005, U.S.A that killed

1833 people

Catastrophe Type 2 µ-0.3σ ≤ F < µ 10,000 ≤ F < 100,000Tohuku earthquake and tsunami-2011,

Japan that killed 15882 people

Calamity Type 1 µ ≤ F < µ+3σ 100,000 ≤ F < 1,000,000Haiti earthquake 2010 killed 316,000

people

Calamity Type 2 µ+3σ ≤ F < µ+33σ 1,000,000 ≤ F < 10M China floods-1931 death toll >2,500,000

Cataclysm Type 1 µ+33σ ≤ F < µ+333σ 10M ≤ F < 100M -

Cataclysm Type 2 µ+333σ ≤ F < µ+3333σ 100M ≤ F < 1BSuper Volcano (e.g. Yellowstone)

Estimated deaths <1B

Partial or Full

Extinctionµ+33333σ ≤ F < µ+33333σ 1B ≤ F < 10B

•Meteor strike (diameter > 1.5 Km) -

estimated deaths :<1.5*109

•Pandemic (Avian influenza) – estimated

deaths : <2.8B

TypeFlash Flood

Forest Fire

Lightning Tornado Volcano Land slide

Cyclone/ Hurricane

Earthquake Tsunami FloodMeteoroid

ImpactEmergency √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √

Disaster Type 1 √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √Disaster Type 2 √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √

Catastrophe Type 1

√ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √

Catastrophe Type 2

× × × × √ √ √ √ √ √

Calamity Type 1 × × × × × √ √ √ √ √Calamity Type 2 × × × × × × × × × √

Cataclysm Type 1

× × × × × × × × × ×

Cataclysm Type 2

× × × × × × × × × ×

Partial or

Full

Extinction

× × × × × × × × × ×

Disaster Classification• Meteoroid impact

– Does not have fatalities in recorded history

– Has the potential to vary (emergency - cataclysm level)

Disaster Classification Contd.

Volcano

Type Event

EmergencyGaleras Volcano : Colombia

(1993) - 9 deaths

Disaster

Type 1

Mt. St. Helens Volcano :

United States (1980) -

57 deaths

Disaster

Type 2

Pinatuba Volcano :

Philippines (1991) -

800 deaths

Catastrophe

Type 1

Laki Volcano : Iceland

(1783) - 9,350 deaths

Catastrophe

Type 2

Mount Tambora Volcano :

Indonesia (1815) -

92,000 deaths

TornadoType Event (Tornado Outbreaks)

EmergencySaroma, Hokkaidō Tornado :

Japan (2006) - 9 deaths

Disaster

Type 1

Marshfield MO Tornado : USA

(1930) - 99 deaths

Disaster

Type 2

Bangladesh Tornado :

Bangladesh (1969) -

923 deaths

Catastrophe

Type 1

Daulatpur - Salturia Tornado :

Manikganj, Bangladesh

(1989) - 1,300 deaths

Advantages of the Scale

• Overall place of each type of disaster

• Easy to recognize an event occurrence and

enter it into a database

• Good foundation to develop an advanced

scale to classify disaster occurrences

worldwide

Limitations

– Twin or more disasters

– Armageddon events

(Asteroids; Large Meteors; Super Volcanoes)

– Winter disaster events

– Slow-moving disasters

– Population increase & economic expansion

Conclusion

• Initial step of scale development process

• Multidimensional scale to understand the

disaster continuum

– All types of disasters at different levels

– Various parameters

Example:

Event magnitude, number of fatalities, affected

population and impact area

Thank You!