precios asia spread prices
TRANSCRIPT
Post Disaster:Key Factors
in Asian LNG Market
World LNG Series ASIA Pacific SUMMIT
21 September 2011, Singapore
Yasushi Asano
General Manager of LNG Business
© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.
Introduction
1
© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.
Outline
1. Demand and Supply Prospect for Asian LNG
2. Change for Buyers (Before and After Disaster)
3. Future Trends in Suppliers' Side
4. What's Next?
© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.
1.Demand and Supply Prospect for Asian LNG
0
50
100
150
200
250
300Substitute LNG for nuclear reactors
Asian LNG
Demand(other
than Japanese)
Japanese LNG Demand
Min Max
~2015
LNG Supply for Asian Market(Existing, FID & FS)
Min Max
2016~2020
Min Max
2021~2030
(mpta)
© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.
1.Demand and Supply Prospect for Asian LNG
Increasing Spot Trade especially in Asia and Europe
• Spot LNG for Asia
- 4mpta (2005) to 18mpta (2010)
• Spot LNG for Europe
- 6mpta (2005) to 14mpta (2010)
• Some Spot Cargoes in Europe (2010) possibly
flow into Asian Market in 2011
Spot Volume in Atlantic can be source for additional
Asian Demand including Nuclear Freeze
© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.
2.Change for Buyers (Before and After Disaster)
• Atlantic LNG Flow to Asia (2010) : 8 to 9 mpta
• Increased Atlantic LNG to Japan (after Disaster) ; 4mpta
Atlantic LNG
Flow to Asia
© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.
2. Change for Buyers (Before Disaster)
• Constant Trends Gap between JKM and NBP
- Atlantic LNG flows to the Asian Spot Market
($/mmbtu)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12 Spread (JKM-NBP)
JKM
NBP
HH
© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.
2. Change for Buyers (After Disaster)
• Different Trends between JKM and NBP
- 'Unreasonable' Price Gap caused by unbalanced Supply
and Demand by the 'month by month' Spot Purchase of
some Asian Buyers due to the Nuclear Freeze ($/mmbtu)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2011/03/11 2011/04/11 2011/05/11 2011/06/11 2011/07/11 2011/08/11
Spread (JKM-NBP)
JKM
NBP
HH
© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.
Continuous Spot Purchase by Asian Buyers
- Increased Atlantic LNG flow to Asian Market
will continue
- Buyers' Concern on continued 'Unreasonable'
Price Gap including 'whichever higher'
concept
Production Start of New Plant to supply the
Asian Market
- Expect to end the 'Unreasonable' Price Gap
- 'Reasonable' Price Gap ?
2. Change for Buyers (After Disaster)
© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.
Commit to the Unconventional Gas (CBM,
Shale Gas)
- Enhance LNG Trade by Alternate Flame
Window to the North American Gas Market
(US Export, Canadian Shale Gas)
- HH Linked LNG Flow to the Asian Market
3. Future Trends in Supplier Side
Chubu's Activity on LNG Business
- Efforts for the integrated LNG Market
© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.
Increased Asian LNG Demand will accelerate
the Change (Integration of Markets)
Revival of Asian LNG Demand/Japanese
LNG Demand
- Expand the Presence of the Traditional
Asian Buyers in the LNG Market
3. Future Trends in Supplier Side
After Disaster
© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.
4. What's Next?
In summary
Integration among the LNG Markets with
'Reasonable' Price Gap
Chubu's Commitment ; Towards Significant Player
in the Integrated Markets, enhancing such
Integration
Thank you!