Low Carbon Roadmap for India(with case study of Ahmedabad City)

P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India

Presented in The 16th AIM International WorkshopNational Institute for Environment Studies, Tsukuba, Japan February 19-21, 2011

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

India NCCAP (June, 2008) - PMO

National Climate Change Action Plan - 8 National Missions1. Solar Energy: Targets by 2022

• 20 GW Grid Power + 2 GW Off-Grid Power• 20 million Solar lighting system to replace 1 billion Liters of of Kerosene/yr (2.5 MT CO2/yr)

2. Enhanced energy efficiency • Avoided capacity of 19000 MW by 2014-15

3. Sustainable habitat• Green and Energy Efficient • Comprehensive approach to manage water, wastewater and solid waste

4. Water Sector • 20% water use efficiency improvement

5. Sustaining the Himalayan eco-system

6. A “Green India” • 20 Mil. Ha afforestation by 2020; Forest cover from 23 to 33% in long-run

7. Sustainable agriculture • Promotion of Micro Irrigation in 40 Mil. ha

8. Strategic knowledge for climate change

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Copenhagen & Cancun: Commitments & Actions

Domestic Actions• Carbon tax on coal to fund clean energy

– US $1/ton on domestic & imported coal; fund to be used for Clean Energy

• Enhanced Energy Efficiency measures – Mandate to reduce specific energy consumption; – Energy savings certificates & trading– Energy efficiency ratings mandatory for 4 key appliances from Jan 2010– Reduction of 6 GW of electricity demand through mass distribution of CFLs

• Renewable Energy Push– Capital Subsidies and/or Preferential Feed-in Tariff– Renewable Energy Certificates Market

• Mission on sustainable habitat– Energy efficiency in residential, commercial and urban transportation– Managing water, wastewater and solid waste with recycling, reuse and energy creation

• 20 to 25% Emissions Intensity Reduction from 2005 to 2020 (1.5 to 1.9% decoupling)• Per Capita Emissions Below OECD Average (for ever)• MRV/ICA of Domestic Actions (India’s Proposal at Cancun)

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

India: Business-as-Usual Projections

Energy  Carbon Emissions 

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mtoe

BiomassOther RenewablesWindSolarNuclearHydroGasOilCoal

Period Energy Emissions2005-2020 2.7 2.8

2005-2050 3.0 3.6

% Annual Intensity Decoupling: BAU

% Annual Energy intensity decoupling for Copenhagen Commitment:

• 1.5 to 1.9 Percent

Integrated Modeling FrameworkDATABASES

-Socio - Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constrai nts

AIM CGE Model

ANSWER -MARKALModel

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

el

AIM

Strategic Database

(SDB

)

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

el

AIM

Strategic Database

(SDB

)

Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment

AIM CGE/GCAM

ANSWER-MARKALModel

AIM/EndUse ModelAIM

EX

SS M

odel

AIM

(SDB

)(Strategic D

atabase)

DATABASES

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

2OC Stabilization: Mitigation Alternatives Conventional Approach: transition with conventional path and carbon price

• High Carbon Price• Climate Focused Technology Push• Top-down/Supply-side actions

Sustainability Approach: aligning climate and sustainable development actions

• Low Carbon Price• Bottom-up/Demand-side actions• Behavioural change• Diverse Technology portfolio

Technology Co-operation Areas• Energy Efficiency• Wind/Solar/Biomass/Small Hydro• Nuclear/Low Carbon Infrastructure

Technology Co-operation Areas• Transport Infrastructure Technologies• 3R, Material Substitutes, Renewable Energy• Process Technologies• Urban Planning, Behavioral Changes

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

Water-Energy

Reduced Consumption

Recycling

Material Substitutions

Device Efficiency

Renewable Energy

Infrastructure

Fuel Switch

Residual Emissions

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

Water-Energy & others

Infrastructure

Device Efficiency

Nuclear

Renewable Energy

Fossil Fuel Switch

Residual Emissions

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Linking Global Best Practices with National Policies

• Avoid Lock-ins (Infrastructure) Transport Energy

• Co-benefits Energy Security Air Quality Water Security Social Value of Carbon

Sustainability Scenario

Transport Transitions

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Passenger Transport Infrastructure

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Air

Train

Bus

Car

3W

2W

SS: Shares of passenger transport infrastructure

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AirTrainBusCar3W2W

SS: Total passenger movement by infrastructure type (Bn Pkm)

BAU

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India8

Freight Transport Infrastructure

Freight movement by transport infrastructure type (Bn Tkm)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

3W

LCV

HCV

Train

Ship

Sectoral shares in freight transport infrastructure (%)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

3W

LCV

HCV

Train

Ship

BAUIndustrial CorridorsCoal by Wire

Haryana Dadri

J. N Port

Rajasthan

Maharashtra

GujaratMadhya Pradesh

Haryana

Uttar Pradesh

Major TownsProposed Freight CorridorAssumed Corridors

Kandla

Kochi

Mangalore

Vizag

Marmagoa

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India9

Energy Infrastructure

Power sector infrastructure capacity additions (Gwatt)

Refining infrastructure capacity requirements (MMTPA)LNG Infrastructure capacity requirements (MMTPA)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Biomass Wind

Waste Heat Solar

Oil Nuclear

Hydro Geothermal

Gas/ Naptha Coal

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Current Capacity

BAU Oil Use

450‐C Oil Use

450‐S Oil Use

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

450‐C Gas Imports

450‐S Gas Imports

Current Capacity

BAU Gas Imports

• Replace and Reduce Fossil Use Coal LNG Petroleum

• Shift to Low Carbon Electricity Nuclear Renewable CCS (End-of-Pipe)

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Low Carbon City Planning: Co-benefitsAhmedabad City: Pop. In 2010 - 5.5. Million

Co-benefits: Transport Transitions

0102030405060708090

100

2005 2035 BaU 2035 LCS 2050 BaU 2050 LCS

2WTrainBusLarge Passenger VehicleCar & 3 W

Per Capita CO2 Emissions (Ton)

2.16

5.63

3.13

8.15

2.16

2005 2035 BAU 2035 LCS 2050 BaU 2050 LCS

163.99

223.199255.704

148.974 169.25

0

100

200

300

2005 2035 2050

Base WECC

Co-benefits: Water per capita (ML/million)

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Energy - Water decoupling (PJ/BCM)

Water Demand (BCM)

Co-benefits: Energy-Water Nexus

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2000 2025 2025 CC 2025 Sus 2050 2050 CC 2050 Sus

Domestic Industry (incl power) Agriculture

Red: 27.0%Red:24.0%

591 1006 953 732 9371237 1184

Water - CO2 decoupling (mt-CO2/BCM)

Co-benefits: Increase in Hydro (PJ)

1.24

1.59

2.23

1.57

2.12

1.441.61

2000 2025 2050

Base Conventional Sustainability

0.384 0.380 0.3640.3750.3510.350

0.280

2005 2025 2050Base Conventional Sustainability

4.8%

27.3%

0

10000

20000

BAU BAU LCS: Sus BAU

2005 2020 2035 2050

Fossil

Nuclear

Large Hydro

Other Renewables

LCS: Sus BAU LCS: Sus

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Co-benefits and Social Value of Carbon

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

tSO

2 Base Case

Sustainability Scenario

ConventionalScenario

Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

100 200 400 800 1600

Emissions and Income

SO2 Emissions in BAU

CO2 Emissions in BAU

LCS (SD) CO2 Emissions

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

(Mill

ion

Ton

)

SO2

Emis

sion

s (M

illio

n To

n)

GDP Per Capita 2000 = 100

Co benefits: Energy Security

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewable

Prim

ary

Ene

rgy

Dem

and

(Mto

e) Base 2825 LCS_CT 2945 LCS_SS 2207

2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

40

80

120

160

200

BAU

LCS : Conventional Scenario

LCS : Sustainability Scenario

Social Value of Carbon

(US

$ pe

r ton

of C

O2)

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Modeling• Modeling coordinated Bottom-up Actions under Top-down

Vision and Policies• Integrated Multi-model Systems – aligning Development

and Climate Actions in a unified framework

LCS Roadmap• Linking Low Carbon Actions and Development Targets

– For 2020: Include climate commitments into BAU Assessment– For Long-term: Avoid technology and policy lock-ins into high

emissions path

• ‘Paradigm Shift towards ‘Co-benefits’ and ‘Co-operation’: – Co-benefits reduces welfare losses– Deliver LCS at Low Carbon Price

Conclusions