WHY ARE THE GRIDS FAILING TIME AND AGAIN?

Electric grid

The power generating stations are hooked onto an interconnected network of transmission lines and substations.

These generating stations supply electricity through these transmission lines.

The companies responsible for distribution take the power coming through these lines and forward it to the consumers.

Power market operations – divided into five regions

Northern

Western

Southern

Eastern

North-Eastern

The Indian power system is divided into five regions

National Load Dispatch Centre (NLDC)

Supervision over the RLDCs

Scheduling and despatch of electricity over inter-regional links

Coordination with RLDCs for the energy accounting of inter-regional exchange of power

Co-ordination for trans-national exchange of Powers

Regional Load Dispatch Centre (RLDC)

Schedule day ahead by matching supply to demand from states

State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC)

Serve as control areas balancing supply-demand within the state in real time

Wholesale market effectively operates at the state level

Power market – operational framework

Regional Load

Dispatch Centers

Eastern

National Load Dispatch Centre

North Eastern Northern Western Southern

States

Central Sector Generation Units

Power Traders

State Network

Regional Network

Inter-Regional Network

State Utilities /Independent power producers / Captive

State Load Dispatch Centers

State Generation Units

Current day to day information flow and dispatch mechanism

Load curves

SLDC 2

SLDC 1

RLDC

Currently State Electricity Boards (SEBs) operate as SLDCs

Load curves

Central Generating Stations (CGS)

State Generation Stations

Inter-state open access Customers (Power Exchange/ Bilateral Contracts)

■ CGS provide RLDC their availability one day in advance

■ State generation units give their availability to SLDCs one day in advance

■ SLDC compares load requirement with own generation and comes up with drawl requirement from central plants

■ RLDC compares all drawl requirements with available generation, and determines drawl schedule for all SLDCs

■ SLDCs/SEBs plan load shedding etc., plants dispatched on merit order basis (purely variable cost)

In case forced outages all drawl schedules gets reduced on pro-rate basis.

■ Import/export to other regions

■ Availability information■ Drawl schedules ■ Drawl requirements

Independent Power Producers

State Generation Stations

Demand: High electricity demand with average growth rate of ~7% over last five years

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

Ele

ctri

city

Dem

and

(T

Wh

)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Dem

and

Gro

wth

(%

)

Energy Demand (TWh) Growth Rate (%)

Demand growth expected to remain high

Electricity demand has grown annually on an average by ~ 7% over the last five years

Demand growth has been robust across the regions and the largest states have posted the biggest increase

Key drivers of electricity demand growth GDP growth and rising income Improved electricity access Rural electrification

Demand growth is expected to remain at 7-9% annually for the next decade

Limited risk to decline in electricity demand growth because of significant existing latent demand

Supply: Consistent failure to add enough new capacity through last 3 five year plans – major cause of increasing deficits

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000Ta

rget

Ach

eive

men

t

Targ

et

Ach

eive

men

t

Targ

et

Ach

eive

men

t

Targ

et

Ach

eive

men

t*

8th Plan (1992-1997) 9th Plan (1997-2002) 10th Plan (2002-2007) 11th Plan (2007-2012)

MW

Nuclear

Thermal

Hydro

54%47% 52%

Source: CEA

Growing demand + constrained supply = persistent shortages

All India

2011-12 2011-12

Bill

ion

kwh

Northern Western Southern Eastern North-East

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45 Peak Demand Peak Met

Northern Western Southern Eastern North-East

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350 Energy Requirement Energy Availability

GW

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

Energy Deficit Peak Deficit

Whole host of factors for increasing deficits

Capacity additions bottlenecks• Equipment supply of Main Plant and

Balance of Plant• Project Finance• Statuary Clearances/Approvals• Land acquisition• Skilled Manpower• Natural calamities in case of Hydro

Projects

Fuel supply constraints• CIL failing to meet its production

targets• Delay in captive block developments• Limited gas availability• Shortage of Nuclear fuel• Erratic hydro generation

Infrastructure constraints• Old inefficient technology use• High Technical and Commercial

Losses• Inadequate gas pipeline

infrastructure• Inadequate coal handling

infrastructure (washeries / ports / railways)

Market structure• Poor financial health of SEBs• Political interference • Market in transition phase• Lack of competition• Lack of Private Participation

A stable electric grid

The stability of the grids depends on a delicate equilibrium of demand-supply, as per the drawal schedule

The amount of load is directly proportional to the amount of power generated

According to the Indian Electricity Code, 49.5 Hz to 50.2 Hz is the permissible band for grid operations in India

When the equilibrium between power generated and consumed gets disturbed and the load becomes more, it leads to tripping of the line

It is the duty of the power distributors to maintain the equilibrium intact so as not to trigger a grid failure

Reasons of a grid collapse

Grids collapse due to two basic reasons: One is the failure of the equipment, like it happened a decade ago in 2002 when

the northern grid collapsed The second trigger is power suppliers drawing excessive power from the grid

which results in the balance of power generation and supply goes haywire with a cascading effect

There are various reasons why an excessive withdrawal of power happens: Weather phenomenon and change in sudden climate is one reason Unreliable demand forecasting, etc.

Northern states of India, like Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Jammu Kashmir, have been found to be habitual violators

Presence of heavy industries and fast growing cities has necessitated the need for more power. But the production has not been able to cope up with the required distribution.

Northern Grid Fails (30th July 2012)

Northern-Eastern Grid Fails (31st July 2012)

Results of power grid failure

The power failure affected all major services, like rail, water and emergency services at hospitals all across the states

Thousands of train passengers were stranded at railway stations all across the country. More than 300 trains came to a standstill

Water services too were affected across the states and supply was low all across the cities

Around 200 miners got trapped in the mines in West Bengal The Railways network was the worst hit services, as trains,

other than those running on diesel engine, stopped midway. Industry suffered heavy losses.

Thank you