1. The Future of eCommerce Logistics Mark Eldridge Director Sales & Marketing Mark.Eldridge@postnl.nl

2. Shopping 2020 TOTAL RETAIL Source: iStock E-commerce is evolving rapidly and the shopping experience in 2020 will be different from today. I will share some findings from the Shopping 2020 project and translate this into how eCommerce logistics is adapting to take advantage of cross-border growth. 3. Agenda Shopping 2020 Shaping eCommerce logistics 4. Shopping 2020Source: iStock SHOPPING2020The best way to predict your future is to create it Abraham Lincoln 5. Shopping 2020 5 Central question How will the consumer shop in 2020 and what actions should be taken on a national, branch and company level so that B2C- operating companies can successfully respond to this, both nationally and internationally? 6. Shopping 2020 6 Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bXJ_obaiYQ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bXJ_obaiYQ 7. Shopping 2020 7 Several results of Shopping2020 360 visitors for ShoppingTomorrow 1000+ visitors for ShoppingToday 150+ expert group meetings 25+ external presentations 15,000 reports downloaded at Shopping2020.nl 20+ company visits 200+ press publications 2,500+ visitors for ShoppingTogether 5,000+ subscriptions to the Shopping2020 Newsletter 60+ In-Company Master Classes 460 involved experts 150+ participating companies Supported by 16 branch organizations 1,280 Twitter followers Research among 12,000 consumers 3,500+ unique visitors p/w at Shopping2020.nl 8. Shopping 2020 THE MOST IMPORTANT FINDINGSWhen we imagine the future we only see the present. Source: iStock 9. Shopping 2020 9 Predictions There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. President Digital Equipmaint Corp, 1977 Most people still want to try on new shoes, perhaps with the exception of replacing leisure shoes Forrester in WSJ, Jul 1999 Seamless omnichannel experience is the key to succes for retailers Experts Shopping 2020, 2014, THE MOST IMPORTANT FINDINGS SOURCE: Expert report "Cross-border (e-)Commerce" One thing is certain: people are terrible at predicting the future 10. Shopping 2020 10 THE MARKET Source: GfK Consumer Research, November 2013 among 12,000 Consumers The Dutch consumer even expects to make as much as 52% of its purchases online in 2020 On average, 25% of the Dutch consumers expect to not use the physical channel at all anymore in 2020 Largest segment Food of consumer spendings is expected to increase from 1% to 14% online market share. Online will grow explosively over the next six years 2013: 65.9 billion in Dutch consumer spending of which 17% is online. This online market share is expected to be 28% in 2017 and 36% in 2020. 11. Shopping 2020 11 Which means retailers, our customers, evolve into total retailers 1 GfK definieert de volgende definitie voor online aankopen: aankopen via smartphone, tablet, desktop, laptop, instore devices, overige digitale devices (watch, glasses, ) en online aankoop afhalen op pick up point Offline Offline Online Online1 2014 2020 CONCEPTUAL BRON: GfK Expertonderzoek; GfK Consumenten onderzoek ; Expertrapporten: Future touchpoints 36-52% Boundries blur, online is inclusive purchase via instore online devices and smartphones in the store Retail sales increases and proportion of channels shifts Boundries between online and offline blur: all is commerce 17% TOTAL RETAIL 12. Shopping 2020 THE CONSUMER Source: iStock There is only one boss. The customer. And he can fire everybody in the company from the chairman on down, simply by spending his money somewhere else... 13. Shopping 2020 13 The consumer of 2020 will be more powerful than ever THE CONSUMER I know more about the product. the lowest prices where its available... I determine what I read, see, hear and do where, when and how I make my purchases in the Netherlands, but also in China I make or break your product/service 14. Shopping 2020 14 Slimmed-down alternativeBargain hunter Source: McKinsey Example: Canceling existing travel plans Applies to: Leisure spending Example: Going to a three-star alternative instead of a luxurious hotel Applies to: insurances, medical/health, communication Example: Using the Internet to find the best price Applies to: Groceries, Electronics, Toys and Games, Clothing A B Decreasing volume C E D Lowering prices THE CONSUMER Consuming less seems to be a trend that will remain after the crisis Control spending Replace if necessary Do-It-Yourself Example: Staying at friends or family instead of a hotel Applies to: Home furnishing Example: Postponing travel plans Applies to: Home Furnishing, Electronics, Cars 15. Shopping 2020 15 Why buy something if you can share almost everything? THE CONSUMER 16. Shopping 2020 MARKET DYNAMICS Start with the customer and work backwards. Jeff Bezos, CEO Amazon 17. Shopping 2020 17 The competition increases on all levels The BeNeLux internal market: Price transparency Service transparency The Consumer: spends less buys in groups Retailers: Brands sell directly China sells directly New entrants: The BIG five enter the market Foreign players enter the market Substitutes: The sharing economy is growing The consumer prints 3D 18. Shopping 2020 18 What can we learn from the Shopping 2020 insights.. Ultimate Customer Focus New Business Models Speed!!! WHAT'S NEXT 19. Agenda Shopping 2020 Shaping eCommerce logistics 20. So what does this mean for Logistics? Boundaries between online/offline blur Sharing culture is driving behaviour Consumer is fast becoming the centre of everything A shift in power from Sender to Receiver 21. How must Logistics providers react? Unique position key consumer touch-point Focus on consumer choice Think Global but Act Local 22. PostNL are shaping the future BeNeLux backbone UK, Germany, Italy Shift to consumer experience Sunday and evening deliveries Post Office in your pocket Investing in cross-border eCommerce 23. Investment in specific Cross-Border Forward Logistics Solutions Track & Trace options now available on Mail products as well as Parcels Perception of signed for and registered mail Consider size and packaging Letter Box Packets Optimal mix of Parcels, Packets, Express Local Look marketing benefits and direct injection can be cheaper! Consumer data and choice Easy links to Merchants (API) Forward and Reverse = Closed Loop One Integrated IT Platform 24. A quick word about International Return Solutions Returns Free returns encourage sales In the box is consumer friendly Download is data & marketing friendly Mix of both possible Pick-up or Drop-off Closed Loop Linking Forward Shipment to the Return Intelligent data from our systems Optimizing the Delivery and Returns networks 25. Our crossborder examples 26. www.postnl.be PostNL are shaping the future