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Post Fukushima Research Evidence on Public Acceptance of SMR in Thai Youths

Associate Prof. Dr. Duchduen Bhanthumnavin The Graduate School of Social and Environmental Development

National Institute of Development Administration (Public University), Thailand

Professor Dr. Vutthi Bhanthumnavin The School of Management Technology

Shinawatra University (Private University), Thailand

Technical Meeting on Technology Assessment of Small and Medium-sized Reactors (SMRs) For Near Term Deployment, CNNC/NPIC, Chengdu, China, 2-4 September, 2013 1

•Thailand are now facing many serious problems, especially, - increasing demand of electricity for social and economic growth, - increasing fossil fuel price that affects energy security, • There is an urgent needs of substantial sources of power. Nuclear power is one of the alternative sources for “energy mixed” plan. • Public acceptance is still the most sensitive issue in Thailand. • Adolescents are the potential decision-makers of nuclear power usage in the future.

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Introduction

IAEA,, Chengdu, China , September 2-4, 2013

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Objectives of this study

1. To investigate the direct and indirect effects of psychological and situational factors on the acceptance of NPP establishment in Thai adolescents. 2. To find the predictors that can differentiate two groups of students with low and high acceptance of NPP establishment in Thai adolescents.

IAEA, Chengdu, China September 2-4, 2013

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Samples

• The sample consisted of 638 Thai senior high school students from 6 secondary schools around Bangkok. • There were 248 males (39%) and 390 females (61%) with the average age of 16 years • The samples were obtained by using multistage random sampling method. • Data were gathered in September 2011.

Statistical analyses

• Structural Equation Model by using LISREL program • Discriminant analysis


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Table 1 Definitions and measurement quality Variables Definition Reliability

(Alpha Coeff.)

NPP site endorsement

Degrees to which the students agree to the NPP construction plan in 2 sites : country and own community with the score ranged between 1-100. Example: From 100 (the highest acceptance) to 1 (the lowest acceptance)

- Acceptance for NPP establishment in the country = …………..

- Acceptance for NPP establishment around BKK = ………….

Intercorrelation = 0.52

Attitude towards NPP

Consisted of 3 aspect : 1) cognitive (perceive advantages or disadvantages of NPP) 2) affective (like/dislike toward NPP) and 3) behavioral tendency (intention to support or not support NPP establishment) . Each aspect contained 12 items, each with 6 point-Likert scale from “highly agree” to “least agree”. Example: - The government should allocate its budget elsewhere rather than

to nuclear power plants (Cognitive) - When I think of nuclear power plants, I think of nuclear war. (Affective) - In the future, I will say “yes” if I am asked about my opinion on

constructing a nuclear power plant in my country. (Beh. Tendency)

Cog = 0.84 Aff = 0.87 Beh = 0.91


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(Alpha Coeff.)

Subjective norms Magnitude of student’s perception of the degrees to which he or she is expected to beliefs or act relating to NPP establishment or perceived from 3 sources of significant others: 1) family (15 items) 2) teachers (15 items) and 3) friends (15 items). All are with 6 point likert scale. Example: - My teacher think that it is very dangerous to have NPP in Thailand.

(Teacher) - My parents have negative perception on NPP. (Family) - My best friend could opposite NPP establishment. (Friend)

Tech 15 =0.77 Fam 15 = 0.82 Friend15 = 0.85

Knowledge on NPP Degrees to which the student knows about 2 types of information on NPP : 1) General knowledge and 2) Knowledge relating to Fukushima nuclear accident . Each measure contained 20 items, each accompanied by unit rating scale. - NPP is potentially a nuclear bomb. (General knowledge) - Fukushima Daiichi was the only NPP plant in Japan damaged by

earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. (FKD knowledge)

Gen = 0.36 Fuk = 0.31


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(Alpha Coeff.)

Trust in the government

one’s beliefs and emotional disposition that the government will do its best, less corruption, and display more integrity on NPP construction, investment, and maintainance. (15 items, each item with 6 point rating scale) Example: -I feel confident that the government can prevent corruption relating to NPP establishment in the future.

Trust = 0.85

Nuclear phobia the amount of discomfort and anxiety attached to NPP. It was assessed by 17 items, each item with 6 point rating scale. Example: - Although many scientists and experts guarantee the safety of NPP, but I am still afraid of NPP.

NP = 0.90


0.86

0.61

0.57 0.83

0.56

0.35

Subjective norm From teachers

Subjective norm From Family

Subjective norm From friend

0.67

0.69

0.88 0.22

0.56

0.53

Situational factors

Trust in the government

Nuclear phobia

0.88

0.22 0.22

0.95

Psychological factors

Knowledge on Fukushima accident

Knowledge on General NPP 0.50

0.18

0.75

0.97 R2 = .74

Knowledge on NPP

0.89 0.87 0.96

Cognitive aspect

Affective aspect

Behavioral

tendency aspect

0.24 0.08 0.21

R2 = .69

Attitudes toward NPP

R2 = .33

NPP site Endorsement

Anywhere in the country (LR)

Around

Bangkok

Vicinity (SMR)

0.26

0.63

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Figure 1 Path analysis of psychological and situational predictors on community’s nuclear empowerment (N = 638) Chi-square = 128.11, p = .0000, df = 46, 2/df = 2.785,NFI = 0.93, CFI = 0.99, SRMR = 0.040, GFI = 0.97, AGFI = 0.94

R2 =0.74 R2 =0.69 R2 =0.33


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Predictors 1. Affective aspect of attitudes toward NPP 2. Trust in the government 3. Subjective norm from teachers

NPP Endorsement • NPP country • NPP community

differentiate with

78.6% accuracy

According to Figure 2, discriminant analysis shows that from the total of 10 independent variables , two psychological factors (affective aspect of attitudes toward NPP and trust in the government), and one situational factor (subjective norm from teacher) together could differentiate the high-high group from the low-low group with 78.6% accuracy.

Figure 2 Discriminant analysis results


IAEA, Chengdu, China September 2-4, 2013 10

How the support and non-support groups come from?

• mean of the scores of each of the two site acceptance was used a cut point for low and high score groups. (total score of 100) Mean for country acceptance = 38.35 Mean for community acceptance = 25.57 • Then find out who are in either hi-hi group or low-low group and used for the analysis. The Hi-Lo and Lo-Hi students were not included. • Hi-Hi group consisted of 169 students, and the Low-Low group consisted of 129 students.

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Additional interesting finding: Opinion Survey on Energy policy

• 624 out 638 students completed answers • After giving information about energy situation of Thailand distributed by Ministry of Energy (2011). Question asked the high school students:


If you were “Prime Minister of Thailand”, how would you support the following energy policies? Please give a score ranged from 1 (least support) to 100 (highly support) for each policy. 1) Nuclear policy = …………. 2) Oil and natural gas policy = ……….. 3) Purchasing electricity from neighbor countries = …..

IAEA, Chengdu, China September 2-4, 2013 12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

31.39

Nuclear Oil & Natural gas Purchasing electricity policy policy from neighbor countries

43.26 38.85

Ave

rage

su

pp

ort

ive

sco

re

Figure 3 Average supportive score of energy policy in Thai adolescent after receiving information

•Based on the findings, there was a tendency to support NPP policy more than the other two policies.

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Conclusion and recommendations

1. It was found that affective aspect of Att tow. NPP, trust in the government, and social norm were the differentiating factors – consistent with past Thai studies (Termkunanon, 2010, Pet-in, 2012; Panyasakulwong, 2013). 2. From discriminant analysis result- Lo-Lo group needs to be reoriented by 2.1) heighten the affective aspect of att. tow. NPP by giving truthful & scientific info. on a) NPP general knowledge and b) Knowledge on Fukushima accident


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Conclusion and recommendations

2.2) Trust in the government should be promoted by positive Thinking and optimism. 2.3) Teachers in high schools in BKK should be trained in being role model as well as being trainees for positive attitudes and actions toward NPP. 3. Knowledge from this study can be applied to enhance the acceptance of SMR.


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Thank you for your attention and participation


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