portuguese real estate investment survey outlook 2019€¦ · portuguese real estate investment...

Portuguese Real EstateInvestment Survey – Outlook 2019Portugal in the real estate investment route

© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A. 2Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019

As the end of 2019 approaches, we launch the Outlook edition of the Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey, with the intention to compile and assess the Selected Panel’s views on the market during the year of 2019.

Our purpose is to convey a comprehensive depiction of the main investment trends in the Portuguese real estate market throughout the year.

We hope to continuously contribute with current and valuable tools to improve the growing knowledge base within the real estate industry in Portugal.

We are at your entire disposal to discuss any relevant question.

Carefully,

Jorge Marrão

Jorge Sousa Marrão

Partner

Real Estate Leader

Preface

2Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A.

© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A.

2019 Outlook


Outlook 2019Portugal

The Portuguese real estate market has maintained a strong position, with the residential, hotel and office sectors at the forefront of investor attractiveness.

In 2019, the Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey panel of participants have expressed a positive expectation on the sustainability of the market, attributing it a strong investment potential. Globally, signs are positive: stability or even growth in transactions, and stable profitability rates.

Go deeper into the main trends of 2019 in the following pages.


2019 Outlook

Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey

KEY MESSAGES

INVESTMENT STRATEGY

Throughout 2019, real estate players were more

keen to invest in Value added assets, despite

the special emphasis on Opportunist deals at

the end of the year.

REAL ESTATE MARKET

Globally, during 2019, transaction volume and

prices were expected to remain stable, with some

increases in the industrial and hotel sectors.

Significant stability in profitability rates was also

expected, specially by the end of the year.

DIVESTMENT STRATEGY

Core assets and Opportunistic deals were the

main target of further divestment by real estate

players in 2019.

REAL ESTATE STRATEGY FOR 2019

Overall, throughout 2019, the investment

strategy remained the main choice of players in

the real estate industry.

5Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019© 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Consultores, S.A.


2019 Outlook [1/3]


REAL ESTATE STRATEGY IN 2019

DivestmentInvestment None of the above

1st QUARTER

29%

57%

14%

4th QUARTER

17%

75%

8%


2019 Outlook [2/3]


VALUE OF ACQUISITIONS MADE IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS

MORE THAN 50M€ FROM 25M€ TO 50M€ UP TO 25M€ NO ACQUISITIONS WERE MADE

IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS

1st Q

29% 21%50%0%

25%9% 33%33%

4th Q


2019 Outlook [3/3]


VALUE OF DISPOSALS MADE IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS

MORE THAN 50M€ FROM 25M€ TO 50M€ UP TO 25M€ NO DISPOSALS WERE MADE IN

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

1st Q

14% 14%

0%50% 25%25%

36% 36%

4th Q


Investment strategy


4th

Q

2019 Outlook | Investment strategy [1/4]


INVESTMENT STRATEGY EVOLUTION¹

INVESTMENT STRATEGY1

stQ

PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT FORECAST

1st Q

29%

43%

28%

Increase by more than 10% Increase by more than 5% Not applicable

4th Q

17%

58%

25%

1Multiple choice question

Value Added Core

Opportunistic deals Not applicable

54%

58%

8%

58%

31%33%

23%

0%


4th

Q

1stQ

57%

75%

43%

50%50%

25%29%

67%

14%

25%21%

12%



PREFERRED INVESTMENT SECTORS¹

INVESTMENT STRATEGY

MAIN INVESTMENT FUNDERS¹

1st Q 50% 36% 36% 29% 21% 14%

4th Q 8%25%25%50%58%75%

Offices Hotels Retail Industrial/ logistics

OtherResidential

Pension funds

Funds of fundsBanks

Sovereign funds

Insurance companies

Other


Offices OtherHotelsResidential Retail Industrial/ logistics


75%

17%

4th Q

4th Q

1st Q

79%

1st Q

50%

1st Q

7%



INVESTMENT STRATEGY

SOURCE OF FUNDING¹

NORTH AMERICA

SOUTH AMERICA

EUROPE64%

0%

1st Q

1st Q

4th Q

83%

ASIA

4th Q

33%

MIDDLE EAST

4th Q

8%



1stQ

1stQ

4th

Q

7%8%

86%

67%

7%

25%

4th

Q



EASINESS OF FUND RAISING

INVESTMENT STRATEGY

LENGHT OF THE REAL ESTATE ASSET’S ACQUISITION PROCESS

NeutralEasy

Difficult

From 6 to 12 monthsUp to 3 months

From 3 to 6 months

14%

25%

43%

33%

43% 42%


Divestmentstrategy


4th

Q

1stQ

2019 Outlook | Divestment strategy [1/4]


DIVESTMENT STRATEGY EVOLUTION¹

DIVESTMENT STRATEGY

PORTFOLIO DIVESTMENT FORECAST

1st Q

29%

29%

42%

4th Q

33%

33%

34%8% 17%

23%

42%

46%

42%

38%

17%

Increase by more than 10% Increase by more than 5% Not applicable


Value Added Core

Opportunistic deals Not applicable


4th

Q

1stQ



PREFERRED DIVESTMENT SECTORS¹

DIVESTMENT STRATEGY

MAIN REAL ESTATE INVESTORS¹

1st Q 29% 29% 29% 21% 14% -

4th Q -8%17%25%33%50%

7%

33%

64%

42%

50%

67%

43%42%

7% 0%

29%

42%

Offices

Hotels

RetailIndustrial/ logistics

OtherResidential


Pension funds

Funds of fundsBanks

Sovereign funds

Insurance companies

Other

Hotels

OfficesRetail Industrial/ logistics

Other Residential


71%

7%

1st Q

1st Q

67%

25%

4th Q

4th Q

1st Q

86%

1st Q

43%

1st Q

7%

4th Q

92%

4th Q

33%

4th Q

25%



DIVESTMENT STRATEGY

SOURCE OF FINANCING¹

NORTH AMERICA

SOUTH AMERICA

EUROPE

ASIA

MIDDLE EAST



1stQ

1stQ

4th

Q

4th

Q



EASINESS OF INVESTORS GATHERING

DIVESTMENT STRATEGY

LENGHT OF THE REAL ESTATE ASSET’S DISPOSAL PROCESS

Very Difficult

7%

17%

79%

58%

14%17%

0%

8%

From 6 to 12 monthsUp to 3 months

From 3 to 6 months More than 12 months

NeutralEasy

Difficult

7%

0%

21%

16%

43% 42%

29% 42%


Real estate market in Portugal


1stQ

4th

Q

1stQ

4th

Q

1stQ

4th

Q

2019 Outlook | Real estate market in Portugal [1/2]


VOLUME AND SALES PRICE FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS BY SECTOR

INDUSTRIAL HOTEL

Increase Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilarIncrease Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilar

1stQ

4th

Q

RESIDENTIAL RETAIL/

SERVICES

Increase Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilar Increase Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilar

29% 33%

50% 33%

21%34%

7%

14%

8%

50%59%

22% 33%

7%

7% 8%

50%33%

14% 42%

29%17%

8%

50% 33%

43% 59%

7%


1stQ

4th

Q

1stQ

4th

Q

1stQ

4th

Q

1stQ

4th

Q

RESIDENTIAL RETAIL/

SERVICES

2019 Outlook | Real estate market in Portugal [2/2]


PROFITABILITY RATES FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS BY SECTOR

HOTELINDUSTRIAL

43%33%

50%59%

7% 8%

36%

57%

100%

7%

7%

28%25%

36% 67%

29%

8%

36% 33%

36% 34%

21% 33%

7%

Increase Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilar Increase Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilar

Increase Slight decreaseSlight increase SimilarIncrease Slight decreaseSlight increase DecreaseSimilar Decrease

22Portuguese Real Estate Investment Survey – Outlook 2019

Contacts

Jorge Sousa Marrão

Partner

Real Estate LeaderMobile +(351) 963 902 674

[email protected]

Inês de Cintra Costa

Senior Manager

Real Estate – Financial AdvisoryMobile +(351) 962 103 923

[email protected]

Ricardo Reis

Partner

Real Estate - TaxMobile +(351) 964 736 261

[email protected]

Diogo Pires

Senior Manager

Real Estate – TaxMobile +(351) 964 837 258

[email protected]


mailto:[email protected]





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