portland metro area market summaries

NAI MEMBER NAMEOffi ce Report | First Quarter 2007

3Q’15 Portland Metro Area Market Summaries

121 SW Morrison, Suite 200 | Portland, Oregon 97204 | 503 223 7181 | www.nai-nbs.com

Unemployment Comparison

Prime Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury

Consumer Price Index

Oregon Monthly Job Gains

ECONOMIC REPORTPortland Metro Area

National HighlightsCiting global uncertainly, chiefl y China’s murky economy, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen postponed any change in its stimulus campaign. Yellen stressed that the Fed’s fi rst increase in almost a decade was more important than the timing, and indicated interest rates will most likely be raised by year’s end.

Though the U.S. economy is in its 7th year of steady job growth, the median American household still reported a lower income in 2014, in infl ation-ad-justed terms, than it did in 2013. According to the Census Bureau’s annual income report released in September 2015, the 2014 real median income was 6.5% below its 2007 level and 7.2% below its 1999 level. However, fall-ing oil prices have slowed temporary infl ation and middle-income Americans feel like they have more money to spend.

Despite broad wage stagnation, consistent job stability has encouraged more Americans to buy homes. Portland’s sizzling residential market is evident to this fact, with home sales closing at record pace. According to Redfi n Realty, more than half of homes close in Portland’s core sell in less than 10 days. Regional home prices have gone up 19% in the last two years alone. Consistent home price gains can make homeowners feel wealthier and are more likely to spend, providing a boost to the economy.

Local HighlightsMayor Charlie Hales announced plans to ask the City Council to declare a housing emergency with the hope of providing shelter for all homeless women by the end of the year. It’s not clear if the emergency would have any impact on Portland’s rental crisis and housing affordability. City offi cials estimate roughly 1,800 homeless people lack shelter on any given night in the Portland-metro area.

The housing emergency is seen as tangential to Portland’s skyrocketing apartment rental market. Not too long ago, Portland’s low vacancy rate was a welcome sign of a rebounding and thriving economy. Now, the surge in rates is symptomatic of a much larger, national concern. The majority of new multifamily development, both in Portland and throughout the U.S., has been priced and marketed toward the same demographic, consequently pricing out a large chunk of middle class and working class residents. In August, Axiometrics reported Portland at a 15% year-over-year average rent increase, the steepest increase in the country.

Trends for 3Q15

POPULATION (#) UNEMPLOYMENT (%) HOME VALUES ($)HOME SALES (#) RETAIL SALES ($)EMPLOYMENT (#)

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OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG

NationalPorland PMSA

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Aug-15

Prime Rate10 Year Treasury

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U.S.Portland

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Mfg. Prof. &Bus. Svcs.

Constr. Trade,Transport

& Util.

Leisure &Hospitality

Govern. Educ. &HealthSvcs.

Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15

(U.S. - August 2015 - 237.931Portland - 1st Half 2015 - 242.976)

3Q15


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Central CitySuburbanVancouver

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Central CitySuburbanVancouver

Vacancy Comparison (%)

Absorption Comparison

OFFICE REPORTPortland Metro Area

Central City Trends for 3Q15

Suburban Trends for 3Q15

VACANCY RATE

VACANCY RATE

CONSTRUCTION

CONSTRUCTION

ASKING RATES

ASKING RATES

NET ABSORPTION

NET ABSORPTION

Featured Deal

NikeLease

Nike, Inc. has signed the largest offi ce deal to date in the Portland

metro area, inking a 105,005 sf lease at the AmberGlen Business Center campus managed by Unico Properties. NAI NBS’ President Chris John-son, Senior VP MaryKay West and VP Brandon Frank represented the les-sor, AmberGlen Offi ce Corporation. Executive Managing Director Bradford Fletcher of Newmark Grubb Knight Frank represented the lessee.

Portland’s Central City vacancy rate barely increased to 9.48% during Third Quarter 2015. Despite a higher vacancy rate, demand and leasing ac-tivity remained robust this quarter with speculative offi ce construction gaining traction for the fi rst time since the Great Recession. Proposals have in-creased and 8 projects totaling 662,402 sf are currently under construction.

In the CBD, Moda Health Services Group expanded its presence with an additional 16,700 sf at Moda Tower. CDK Global downsized by 24,564 sf with their 90,000 sf lease renewal at CDK Plaza, and Examworks LLC leased 14,504 sf and will move-in by First Quarter 2016. In the Lloyd/Cen-tral Eastside, Hanna Andersson moved into its newly renovated 51,335 sf at 541 NE 20th Avenue. In the Northwest, the Pacifi c Northwest College of Art moved into 31,644 sf at 321 Glisan.

The Suburban’s offi ce vacancy rate dropped to 12.63% with signifi cant activity owed to the Sunset Corridor submarket. Nike was the biggest driver behind that submarket’s low 8.68% vacancy rate, and the sports-wear juggernaut committed to the largest lease of the quarter with more than 100,000 sf at AmberGlen Business Center.

Vancouver offi ce vacancy dipped to 12.55%. The Hudson Building, a new creative offi ce building located at 101 E 6th Street, will deliver 45,000 sf of Class B offi ce space by December 2015. The highly anticipated $1.5 billion Waterfront project completed infrastructure construction in Septem-ber. The sprawling 32-acre site is master-planned to include 1 million sf of offi ce space.

Creative offi ce users have long favored the natural aesthetic of exposed wood. Now, thanks to the technology of cross laminated timber (CLT), Portland is leading the charge for more commercial use with the hopes to boost local timber and manufacturing jobs in the process. The Framework project, a proposed 12-story offi ce in the Pearl District, was announced with the expectation to break ground in October 2016. The CLT project was one of two winners in the U.S. Tall Wood Building Prize competition and earned a $1.5 million prize.

3Q15


INVENTORY DIRECT DIRECT TOTAL UNDERSUBMARKET # BLDGS. (SF) AVAILABLE (SF) VACANCY(%) ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION

CENTRAL CITY*

Central Business District 117 14,657,460 1,490,757 10.17 (187,526) 255,638

Lloyd District/Central Eastside 22 2,375,694 191,390 8.06 69,548 130,840

Northwest 30 3,042,398 220,543 7.25 25,704 275,924

TOTAL 169 20,075,552 1,902,690 9.48 (92,274) 662,402

SUBURBAN*

Sunset Corridor 66 3,245,579 281,558 8.68 (12,700) 0

Central 217 35 1,864,154 403,429 21.64 (10,825) 0

Southern 217 35 1,133,519 166,845 14.72 (19,604) 0

Barbur Boulevard 22 474,659 75,881 15.99 6,290 0

Beav-Hillsdale/Sylvan 24 807,003 153,666 19.04 (30,995) 0

Central Beaverton 14 703,294 57,650 8.20 15,846 0

I-5 South 58 2,104,827 272,385 12.94 19,853 0

S Waterfront/Johns Landing 22 1,001,720 51,414 5.13 23,712 0

Kruse Way 30 2,304,918 270,536 11.74 22,274 0

Lake Oswego/West Linn 18 410,257 38,727 9.44 253 0

North/Northeast 26 914,615 136,689 14.94 (165) 35,671

Central 205 32 1,284,855 145,883 11.35 25,095 0

Southeast 16 376,028 45,506 12.10 1,163 0

TOTAL 398 16,625,428 2,100,169 12.63 40,197 35,671

Vancouver 125 4,657,995 584,393 12.55 15,472 45,000

*Additions and subtractions to the numbers above are in our detailed report.**Numbers only refl ect direct space.

Market Overview*

OFFICE REPORTPortland Metro Area

Signifi cant Lease TransactionsTENANT BUILDING SIZE SUBMARKET

Nike, Inc. AmberGlen Business Center 62,481 sf Sunset Corridor

Nike, Inc. AmberGlen Business Center 42,258 sf Sunset Corridor

Nike, Inc. Tanasbourne Commerce Center Building 2 28,889 sf Sunset Corridor

Signifi cant Sales TransactionsBUYER BUILDING PRICE SUBMARKET

TPF Equity REIT Operating Partnership LP US Bancorp Tower & Plaza $372,500,000 CBD

Prudential Real Estate Investors Block 300 $155,252,000 CBD

Yakima Products, Inc. West End Building $20,100,000 Kruse Way

Source: CoStar, Oregonian, Portland Business Journal, Daily Journal of Commerce

Source: CoStar

3Q15




INDUSTRIAL/FLEX REPORTPortland Metro Area

Portland’s industrial market remained strong Third Quarter with vacancy slightly increasing to 8.86%. 7 buildings totaling 430,013 sf are currently under construction with considerable development in the Southwest I-5 submarket. The 2-building, 62,000 sf Franklin Business Park is expected to deliver by November 2015. Buildings A, B and C of Southwest Industrial Park, a combined 156,573 sf, will also deliver by November 2015.

The quarter’s activity was largely due to move-ins with a few, notable lease transactions. In the North/Northeast submarket, heating equipment suppli-er Geary Pacifi c moved into its 31,628 sf space and Fujicolor Processing Inc. expanded its space by 26,823 sf at Southshore Commerce Center, Building 2. Committing to 383,040 sf, KeHE Distributors signed the largest lease of the quarter at PDX Logistics Center. Trailblazers Food also signed a signifi cant lease, taking 134,400 sf at the I-84 Industrial Center. In the Southwest I-5 submarket, Wineshipping.com had the largest move of the quarter with its 145,136 sf space at the newly constructed Southwest Industrial Park, Building D. In Southwest Sunset, Engle Dental System moved into 30,060 sf at Building E and 7,555 sf at Building B of Ever-green Business Park. With little activity to report, Vancouver’s vacancy rate barely increased up to 5.3%.

The flex market’s vacancy rate bumped up to 11.40%. In the Southwest 217 submarket, Forensic Analytical Labs moved into its 11,221 sf space at Tech Center Business Park, Building A. In Southwest Sunset, Portland-based sportswear giant Columbia Sportswear moved into its 27,379 sf offi ces at AmberGlen Business Center, 1385 Building.

Market TrendsOregon’s industrial market may need to brace for a ‘green rush’ with heightened warehouse demand for marijuana grow operations. In the wake of marijuana legalization on July 1 and dispensaries selling to rec-reational customers on October 1, Oregon is likely to experience similar economic and market fl uctuations to that of Colorado, which legalized marijuana in 2012. If Portland follows suit, the metro-area warehouse inventory may dwindle, especially for spaces smaller than 80,000 sf. In Colorado, growers and distributors now account for more than a third of the state’s total leased warehouse space. Converting warehouse space into grow facilities typically requires expensive upgrades, and the building’s specialization could pose a challenge to relet. Additionally, limited ware-house availability equates to higher costs for logistics and transportation providers. The extra cost is evident in higher rents. Rents for Colorado warehouses rose 10% in 2014 with similar projections for the Portland metro area.

Industrial Trends for 3Q15

Flex Trends for 3Q15

VACANCY RATE

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CONSTRUCTION

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IndustrialFlex

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IndustrialFlex

3Q15


NVENTORY TOTAL TOTAL UNDERSUBMARKET (SF) AVAILABLE (SF) VACANCY(%) ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION

INDUSTRIAL* North/Northeast 22,612,108 2,843,737 12.58 164,673 211,440 Northwest 1,563,150 127,908 8.18 14,240 0 Southeast 6,396,633 249,954 3.91 47,282 0 Southwest 217 2,770,105 287,362 10.37 (41,200) 0 Southwest I-5 9,228,521 574,154 6.22 155,467 218,573 Southwest Sunset 2,554,153 218,122 8.54 30,924 0 Vancouver 8,506,860 450,680 5.30 12,600 0TOTAL 53,631,530 4,751,917 8.86 383,986 430,013

FLEX* North/Northeast 612,550 54,462 8.89 13,374 0 Southeast 263,229 9,566 3.63 (4,118) 0 Southwest 217 2,728,308 472,990 17.34 15,770 0 Southwest I-5 1,138,992 73,472 6.45 32,361 67,043 Southwest Sunset 4,931,497 378,922 7.68 (43,327) 0 Vancouver 980,595 225,363 22.98 (15,745) 87,500TOTAL 10,655,171 1,214,775 11.40 (1,685) 154,543

Market Overview*

Featured Deals

INDUSTRIAL/FLEX REPORTPortland Metro Area


KeHE 9555 NE Alderwood Rd. 383,040 sf North/NortheastTrailblazer Foods 18285-18557 NE Halsey St. 134,400 sf North/NortheastFar West Recycling 10750 SW Denney Rd. 61,200 sf Southwest 217


Winkler Development Corporation 1019 SE 10th Ave $5,200,000 SoutheastDateline Exports, Inc. 18404-18408 NE San Rafael St. $2,350,000 North/NortheastAndrea Angell Specht Industrial Building $2,200,000 North/Northeast


Source: CoStar

Pental Granite and MarbleLease

Pental Granite and Marble of Ore-gon, Inc. leased 41,895 sf at NWCP Northwest Corporate Park. Senior

Vice President Michael Merino represented the lessee. Tamir Ohayon of NAI Puget Sound represented the lessor, CSHV NWCP Portland, LLC. Pental Granite and Marble is the largest wholesale tile and stone distributor on the West Coast.

1705 SE 17th StreetLand Sale

The Joint Apprenticeship and Training Committee of the North-west Line Construction Industry is hoping to break ground on a new training center in Battle Ground next year. The organization, which is under the oversight of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers and the National Electrical Contractors Association Trustees, has purchased property at 1705 SE 17th St. in Battle Ground for $1 million. Vice President Garret Harper represented the seller, Columbia Property Resources, LLC.

*Additions and subtractions to the numbers below are in our detailed report.

3Q15




RETAIL REPORTPortland Metro Area

Portland’s retail vacancy held steady at to 6.08% Third Quarter with 170,836 sf absorbed. 4 buildings totaling 45,267 sf are currently under construction.

In the Central City, Eddie Bauer moved into 4,738 sf at Pioneer Place. In the Southwest, Makato Japanese Buffet moved into their 9,600 sf restaurant at Tigard Marketplace. Also in the Southwest, discount party superstore Party Fair signed the largest lease of the quarter with its 9,509 sf store at the Tigard Triangle Center. In the Eastside submarket, an 8,203 sf Green Zebra Grocery is set to anchor the new Lloyd Center project, Hassalo on Eighth, and will open in early 2016.

Vancouver’s vacancy dwindled down to a low 8.34%. It’s been in the works since 2006, but the long-awaited, 155,961 sf Walmart Supercenter at Evergreen Crossing fi nally opened its doors on September 23. A grand ceremony for the gas station was held on October 3. Hazel Dell Marketplace also gained a new 21,500 sf Marshalls, which will open summer 2016.

Noteworthy NewsGrocery and supermarkets continue to be a major source of retail activity for the Portland metro-area. Lake Oswego will welcome Whole Foods’ newest venture, Whole Foods 365. Targeted toward millennials and focused on value, the new store will be much smaller, interactive and ideal for lower income customers wanting better access to fresh foods. The Haggen grocery chain fi led for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the wake of the stores it bought from the $9.4 billion merger of Albertsons and Safeway.

Trends for 3Q15

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The company will close 127 of its 164 existing stores. To date, 12 Oregon stores will close including Ashland, Baker City, Beaverton, Milwaukie, Sherwood, Springfi eld and Tigard. Haggen will shutter a total of 15 stores in Washington.

After October 1, Oregonians best prepare for a ‘green rush’. Oregon passed legislation allowing dispensaries to sell to recreational customers beginning on October 1. Portland also plans to accept license applications for all marijuana business on this date. City offi cials project 360 marijuana businesses with $1.1 million in revenue in city fees, which will undoubtedly boost the local economy.

Nationally, Americans stepped up their spending on cars, restaurants, groceries and clothing in August, suggesting resilience in the U.S. economy versus the current global slowdown. Overall, retail sales have kept up with solid job gains during Third Quarter. The nation added another 2.9 million jobs over the past 12 months, which is evident by the spending surge on luxury goods and disposable income items like cars, clothing and restaurants. However, improved retail sales weren’t shared by all and a lag of growth at furnishers and home improvement stores forewarn a potential cooling down of the housing market.

3Q15


INVENTORY TOTAL TOTAL UNDERSUBMARKET # BLDGS. (SF) AVAILABLE (SF) VACANCY(%) ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION

122nd/Gresham 40 5,741,796 568,473 9.90 (1,847) 0

Central City 54 2,228,740 126,700 5.68 (432) 0

Eastside 28 5,724,959 250,497 4.38 32 0

Southeast/East Clackamas 30 5,331,641 304,287 5.71 19,334 0

Southwest 100 12,197,099 460,532 3.78 30,529 22,368

Sunset Corridor 43 5,321,551 271,627 5.10 (29,454) 3,858

Vancouver 96 10,524,720 877,710 8.34 152,674 19,041

TOTAL 391 47,070,506 2,859,826 6.08 170,836 45,267

*Additions and subtractions to the numbers above are in our detailed report.

Market Overview*

Featured Deals

RETAIL REPORTPortland Metro Area


Party Fair Tigard Triangle Center 9,509 sf Southwest

Green Zebra Grocery Hassalo on Eighth 8,203 sf Eastside

Dogstar Barrows Crossing 5,540 sf Southwest


Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. Tigard Promenade & Sunnyside Shop Ctr $38,500,000 Southwest

Geneva Equities Mt. Baker Building $3,550,000 Eastside

Trinsic Residential Group 419 E Burnside St. $2,795,000 Eastside


Source: CoStar

Party FairLease

Party Fair, a discount party superstore, has leased 9,509 sf at the Tigard Triangle Center. NAI Norris, Beggs & Simpson Associate Vice President Jack Gallagher and Real Estate Broker R. Tom Smith represented the tenant. Matt Sichel of Elliott Associates represented the landlord, American Industries, Inc.

Campbell Thrifty BuildingsSale

The Campbell Thrifty Buildings were sold for $2.85 million. President Chris Johnson, Senior Vice President MaryKay West and Vice President Denis O’Neill represented the seller, John Balwit and Julie Weinstein Balwit. Located at 303-325 NE 3rd Street in McMinnville, the 20,574 sf buildings are seismically retrofi tted historic buildings with 100% occupancy.

3Q15



Rental Rate Comparison

MULTIFAMILY REPORTPortland Metro Area

Portland’s multifamily market continues on a tear without any signs of slowing down. Though it barely increased, the Portland metro-area benchmarked another low vacancy rate at 2.45% for Third Quarter. A 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom apartment now fetches an average of $1,183 per month versus the average of $1,026 reported a year ago.

Though the rate of construction has subsided, capital continues to fl ood the market as evidenced by the soar in multifamily property sales. Portland’s accelerating rents have attracted the world’s biggest institu-tional investors. With a combined 684 units, 3 properties in Vancouver – the Bluff, Miramonte and Walden Pond – sold for $93.6 million. In Beaverton, the 630-unit Sterling Pointe sold for a hefty $91.08 million. In downtown Portland, the Museum Place, a 140-unit apartment build-ing, was sold for $59.5 million. The high volume of high transactions only underscores Portland’s global market value and appeal.

Market TrendsNot too long ago, Portland’s low vacancy rate was a welcome sign of a rebounding and thriving economy. Now, the surge in rates is symp-tomatic of a much larger, national concern. The majority of new mul-tifamily development, both in Portland and throughout the U.S., has been priced and marketed toward the same demographic, conse-quently pricing out a large chunk of middle class and working class residents. According to an analysis by Apartment List, the price of renting a 2-bedroom apartment in Vancouver rose faster this summer than any other city in the country. In July, Vancouver showed a 9.8% year-over-year increase in rent and Portland posted a 8.5% increase. In August, the data grew grimmer with Axiometrics reporting Portland at a 15% year-over-year average rent increase, the steepest increase in the country.

The number of U.S. households that spend at least half their income on rent, otherwise known as the ‘severely cost-burdened’, could increase by 25% to 14.8 million people over the next decade as reported by the Enterprise Community Partners, an affordable-hous-ing nonprofi t group, and Harvard’s Joint Center on Housing Stud-ies. Renters simply don’t have the same fi nancial options afforded homeowners. Today’s home buyers can take out new mortgages and homeowners can refi nance existing loans at lower rates. In contrast, the number one reason cited for not affording a home is the inability to save for a down payment, which soaring rents only exacerbate.

Trends for 3Q15

VACANCY RATE

PERMITS CONSTRUCTION

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OverallNewerSeasoned

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Overall Newer Seasoned

3Q15


AVERAGE RENT PER UNIT %SUBMARKET 1 BED/1 BATH 2 BED/1 BATH 2 BED/2 BATH 3 BED/2 BATH VACANT

Downtown Portland $1,770 ($2.22) $1,674 ($1.88) $2,761 ($2.24) $3,148 ($2.05) 3.26

Southeast Portland $1,187 ($1.80) $1,061 ($1.21) $1,315 ($1.32) $1,411 ($1.19) 2.32

North/Northeast Portland $1,347 ($1.80) $1,143 ($1.30) $1,883 ($1.58) $1,154 ($1.03) 1.72

Southwest Portland $1,068 ($1.60) $1,177 ($1.38) $1,466 ($1.42) $1,525 ($1.25) 2.26

Gresham/Troutdale $907 ($1.31) $988 ($1.16) $1,092 ($1.09) $1,263 ($1.09) 1.98

Lake Oswego/West Linn $1,293 ($1.75) $1,448 ($1.60) $1,655 ($1.52) $1,785 ($1.34) 2.76

Wilsonville $1,038 ($1.44) $1,222 ($1.32) $1,371 ($1.34) $1,628 ($1.36) 2.46

Tigard/Tualatin $983 ($1.45) $1,071 ($1.27) $1,302 ($1.30) $1,595 ($1.39) 2.92

Beaverton/Aloha $1,121 ($1.60) $1,332 ($1.51) $1,344 ($1.37) $1,542 ($1.32) 2.54

Hillsboro $1,148 ($1.57) $1,266 ($1.33) $1,438 ($1.32) $1,604 ($1.25) 3.20

Clackamas/Or Cty/Mlwk $965 ($1.40) $1,098 ($1.23) $1,208 ($1.22) $1,478 ($1.19) 2.03

Vancouver $926 ($1.30) $1,013 ($1.10) $1,184 ($1.10) $1,313 ($1.06) 1.87

TOTAL $1,223 ($1.68) $1,183 ($1.34) $1,548 ($1.43) $1,548 ($1.25) 2.45

*Additions and subtractions to the numbers above are in our detailed report.

Market Overview*

Featured Deals

MULTIFAMILY REPORTPortland Metro Area

Signifi cant Sales TransactionsBUYER BUILDING PRICE UNITS SUBMARKET

Starwood Capital Group The Bluff, Miramonte Lodge & Walden Pond $93,600,000 684 Vancouver

JCA Real Estate Investments Sterling Pointe $91,080,000 630 Beaverton & Aloha

Holland Partner Group Wyndham Park $63,900,000 423 Beaverton & Aloha

Zurich Alternative Asset Mgmt, LLC Museum Place $59,500,000 140 Downtown Portland

TIAA-CREF The Cordelia $47,750,000 135 Downtown Portland

The Praedium Group 206 Apartments $47,275,000 203 Hillsboro

DiNapoli Capital Partners Andover Park $45,250,000 240 Beaverton & Aloha

Source: CoStar

Quail SpringsPermanent Financing

NBS Financial Services’ Senior Vice President Wally Harding and

Finance Offi cer Mick Stapleton, representing the lender, have arranged $9,633,000 in permanent fi nancing for Quail Springs, a 118-unit resi-dential community in Richland, WA. Funding was provided by Freddie Mac through NBS’ correspondent relationship with Walker Dunlop.

The VeronaUnder New Manage-ment

The Verona is a 16-unit, newly constructed apart-

ment community in the King Neighborhood in Northeast Portland. It offers hard to fi nd outdoor space, generous rooms sizes and townhomes with 2.5 baths.

3Q15

121 SW MorrisonSuite 200Portland OR 97204503 223 7181

600 University StreetSuite 503Seattle WA 98101206 587 1840

700 Washington StreetSuite 608Vancouver WA 98660360 852 9600

www.nai-nbs.com

portland metro area market summaries

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