population. population the central environmental issue the most important environmental issue the...

PopulationPopulation

PopulationPopulationThe The CENTRALCENTRAL Environmental Issue Environmental Issue

The The MOST IMPORTANTMOST IMPORTANT Environmental IssueEnvironmental Issue

The The MOST DIFFICULTMOST DIFFICULT Environmental IssueEnvironmental Issue

PopulationPopulationThe The CENTRALCENTRAL Environmental Issue Environmental Issue

• Essentially all environmental Essentially all environmental problems are related directly problems are related directly or indirectly to growth of the or indirectly to growth of the

human population human population

Population

More Land More Land

More PeopleMore People

More PeopleMore PeopleMore PeopleMore People

More FoodMore Food More waterMore water

More ResourcesMore Resources

More EnergyMore Energy More PollutionMore PollutionMore PeopleMore PeopleMore PeopleMore People

More PeopleMore People

PopulationPopulationThe The MOST IMPORTANTMOST IMPORTANT

Environmental IssueEnvironmental Issue

• Most environmental problems Most environmental problems can not be resolved without can not be resolved without

addressing the population issue.addressing the population issue.



• If growth of the human population If growth of the human population is not controlled, then solving the is not controlled, then solving the other environmental problems will other environmental problems will

not matter.not matter.



• If we do not control growth of the If we do not control growth of the human populationhuman population

thenthen

““nature” will do it for us. nature” will do it for us.



• If growth of the human population If growth of the human population is not controlled, then we will is not controlled, then we will

exceed exceed CARRYING CAPACITY.CARRYING CAPACITY.

PopulationPopulationCARRYING CAPACITYCARRYING CAPACITY

• The maximum number of The maximum number of organisms an ecosystem can organisms an ecosystem can support without damage to the support without damage to the

ecosystem.ecosystem.

PopulationPopulationThe The MOST DIFFICULTMOST DIFFICULT


There are numerous difficultiesThere are numerous difficulties

• ethicalethical • religiousreligious • educationaleducational

• economiceconomic• culturalcultural • personalpersonal


• There are currently more than 7.1 billion people on Earth.

PopulationPopulationSimple equation for population increaseSimple equation for population increase

Increase =Increase =numbernumber

ofofbirthsbirths

numbernumberofof

deathsdeathsminusminus

Increase =Increase =numbernumber

ofofbirthsbirths

numbernumberofof

deathsdeathsminusminus

Actual estimated data for world populationActual estimated data for world population

4.34.3birthsbirthsperper

secondsecond

minusminus

1.81.8deathsdeaths

perpersecondsecond

Increase =Increase =2.5 people 2.5 people

perpersecondsecond

World Population IncreaseWorld Population Increase

Increase = Births minus DeathsIncrease = Births minus Deaths

2.52.5 more people more people per secondper second

148148 more people more people per minuteper minute



7,4007,400 more people more people per 50per 50 minute class periodminute class period

8,8808,880 more people more people per hourper hour



212,522 212,522 more people more people per dayper day

1,487,6541,487,654more people more people per weekper week



78 million78 millionmore peoplemore people per yearper year



At the current rate of increase, At the current rate of increase, we are adding another we are adding another

ONE BILLION ONE BILLION people every 12.8 yearspeople every 12.8 years

World population is over

7.1 billion and growing

What is the What is the carrying carrying capacity of capacity of Earth for Earth for humans?humans?

Every minute we add 148 more people to world population

Each one of these people will need a lifetime of:

• foodfood • waterwater• clothingclothing • sheltershelter

• energyenergy • natural resourcesnatural resources


Each one of these people will need :

• educationeducation

• health carehealth care

• employmentemployment


Many of these people will never know Many of these people will never know the standard of living that we know.the standard of living that we know.

Many of these people will struggle to Many of these people will struggle to obtain the basic necessities of life.obtain the basic necessities of life.

Will all of these people live as we do ?Will all of these people live as we do ?

Rich and Poor CountriesRich and Poor Countries

More Developed Countries (MDCs)More Developed Countries (MDCs)-- also called the “Developed” countries-- also called the “Developed” countries-- are the economically rich countries-- are the economically rich countries

Less Developed Countries (LDCs)Less Developed Countries (LDCs)-- also called the “Developing” countries-- also called the “Developing” countries-- are the economically poor countries-- are the economically poor countries

Population GrowthPopulation Growthinin


Approximately 90% of the currentApproximately 90% of the current

population growth is occurring in the LDCspopulation growth is occurring in the LDCs


population growth is occurring in the MDCspopulation growth is occurring in the MDCs

Population GrowthPopulation GrowthIn Poor CountriesIn Poor Countries

Population growth is most rapid in the LDCs

These countries are the least able to These countries are the least able to cope with more peoplecope with more people

Many LDCs are struggling to adequately Many LDCs are struggling to adequately provide for their current populationprovide for their current population

Why Be Concerned About Why Be Concerned About Population Growth in LDCs ?Population Growth in LDCs ? Basic Human Compassion

Environmental DegradationEnvironmental Degradation

Economic InterdependenceEconomic Interdependence Free TradeFree Trade Civil Strife and Armed ConflictCivil Strife and Armed Conflict

Environmental RefugesEnvironmental Refuges

Environmental Impacts Environmental Impacts and Populationsand Populations

Environmental

Impact of a

Population==

NumberNumberofof

PeoplePeopleXX

ResourceResourceUse &Use &

PollutionPollutionPer personPer person

Environmental Impacts and LDCsEnvironmental Impacts and LDCs

Environmental

Impact of a

Population==

NumberNumberofof

PeoplePeopleXX



HugeHuge XX SmallSmall==Large Large ImpactImpact

PEOPLEPEOPLE Overpopulation Overpopulation

Environmental Impacts and MDCsEnvironmental Impacts and MDCs

Environmental

Impact of a

Population==

NumberNumberofof

PeoplePeopleXX



SmallSmall XX HugeHuge==Large Large ImpactImpact

CONSUMPTIONCONSUMPTION Overpopulation Overpopulation

Reducing the Environmental Reducing the Environmental Impacts of PopulationsImpacts of Populations

LDCsLDCs control population growthcontrol population growth raise standard of livingraise standard of living

MDCsMDCs control resource consumption & pollutioncontrol resource consumption & pollution maintain standard of livingmaintain standard of living

Growth of World PopulationGrowth of World Population

TimeTime


A graph of humanA graph of human

population growthpopulation growth

resembles a J-shapedresembles a J-shaped

curvecurve


Human population

remained below

1 billion

for tens of

thousands of

years

World population is estimated to World population is estimated to have reached 1 billion in 1830.have reached 1 billion in 1830.


18301830 1 billionWorld population is estimated to World population is estimated to

have reached 2 billion in 1930.have reached 2 billion in 1930.

19301930 2 billion


18301830 1 billion

19301930 2 billion

thousands of years

100 years

3 billion4 billion5 billion6 billion

196019601975197519871987

19991999

30 years

15 years

12 years

12 years

At the current

rate of growth,

world population

will approach 10

billion by the

middle of this

century.



Future population

size will depend upon our efforts

to control the rate of growth of population.

World population is over 7.1 billion and growing



TimeTime


A graph of humanA graph of human


resembles a J-shapedresembles a J-shaped

curvecurve

Population Growth CurvesPopulation Growth Curves

TimeTime


J-shapedJ-shaped growth curvesgrowth curves are frequently observed by ecologists studying non-human populations.


TimeTime


What do these ecological studies of non-human populations suggest about the future of human population ?


TimeTime

PopulationPopulationsigmoid

growth

curve

population could

stabilize at or

below carrying

capacity


TimeTime

PopulationPopulationdome-shaped

growth

curve

population could

briefly exceed

carrying capacitybut not

seriously

damage the

environment


TimeTime


irruptiveirruptive

growth growth

curvecurve

population could

grossly exceed

carrying capacityand seriously

damage the

environment

Population GrowthPopulation Growth

Exponential GrowthExponential Growth Increase in a quantity by a constantIncrease in a quantity by a constant

percentage per unit timepercentage per unit time

The human population is currentlyThe human population is currently

showing exponential growthshowing exponential growth Human population is growing at the rateHuman population is growing at the rate

of 1.2% per yearof 1.2% per year

Population GrowthPopulation GrowthDoubling TimeDoubling Time The amount of time required for a quantityThe amount of time required for a quantity

to double or increase by 100%to double or increase by 100%

For quantities increasing by For quantities increasing by

exponential growth, doubling time can exponential growth, doubling time can

be estimated by the “rule of 70”be estimated by the “rule of 70”


The “Rule of 70”The “Rule of 70”A useful algorithm for estimating A useful algorithm for estimating doubling time under exponential growthdoubling time under exponential growth

7070 = doublingdoubling

timetime% increase

The “Rule of 70”The “Rule of 70”Some Practical Application ExamplesSome Practical Application Examples The Rule of 70 can be applied to growth The Rule of 70 can be applied to growth

of your personal investmentsof your personal investments

7070

% increase% increase ==doublingdoubling

timetime

7070 55% per year interest% per year interest ==

your initial investmentyour initial investment

doubles in doubles in 1414 years years

The “Rule of 70”The “Rule of 70”Some Practical Application ExamplesSome Practical Application Examples The Rule of 70 can be applied to growth

of your personal investments

7070

% increase =doublingdoubling

timetime

70 70 2% per year interest =

your initial investment

doubles in 35 years

The “Rule of 70”The “Rule of 70”Some Practical Application ExamplesSome Practical Application Examples The Rule of 70 can be applied to growth

of your personal investments

7070

% increase =doublingdoubling

timetime

70 70 10% per year interest =

your initial investment

doubles in 7 years


At the current rate of growthAt the current rate of growth,, world population will be overworld population will be over14 billion by the year 207214 billion by the year 2072

Human population is growing atHuman population is growing at

the rate ofthe rate of 1.2% per year1.2% per year

70

1.2% per year1.2% per year = 58 years58 years

World population over 14 billion by 2072


Why the Rapid Increase Why the Rapid Increase in Population ?in Population ?

Increase = births minus deathsIncrease = births minus deaths

Due to an increase in births ?Due to an increase in births ? NONO

Due to a decrease in deaths ?Due to a decrease in deaths ? YESYES

Why the Survival Boom ?Why the Survival Boom ?

Improvements in MedicineImprovements in Medicine


germ theory of diseasegerm theory of disease antibiotics – topical and systemicantibiotics – topical and systemic vaccines and immunizationsvaccines and immunizations

control of dysentery and diarrheacontrol of dysentery and diarrhea more medical personnelmore medical personnel


Improvements in NutritionImprovements in Nutrition

better understanding of nutritional better understanding of nutritional requirements and dietary deficienciesrequirements and dietary deficiencies

more abundant and dependable more abundant and dependable food supplyfood supply

better food preservation and storagebetter food preservation and storage

Why the Survival Boom ?Why the Survival Boom ?Improvements in HygieneImprovements in Hygiene

water treatment for control of water treatment for control of

water-borne diseasewater-borne disease

better sanitation – control of better sanitation – control of

human wasteshuman wastes

better control of vector-borne better control of vector-borne

disease – pesticidesdisease – pesticides

Studying PopulationStudying Population

DemographyDemography – the statistical– the statistical

study of human populationsstudy of human populations

DemographicsDemographics – the statistical– the statistical

data used to describe humandata used to describe human

populationspopulations

Population HistogramsPopulation Histograms

Studying PopulationStudying Population

A useful tool of demographyA useful tool of demography A graphical snap shot of a populationBar graph that shows number of Bar graph that shows number of males and females in five year age males and females in five year age blocksblocks


Provide a rapid

visualization of

the age

distribution of a

population


Provide a rapid

visualization of

the future

growth of a

population

Stable Population – histogram is essentially straight up and down


Slowing Growing Population – base is slightly larger than top

Shrinking Population – base is smaller than top

Rapidly Growing Population – base is much larger than top

Striking difference in populationStriking difference in population histograms for MDCs and LDCshistograms for MDCs and LDCs


Population histogram for LDCs indicates tremendous growth in population

Population histogram for MDCs indicates relatively stable population

Pre-Reproductive AgePre-Reproductive Age –– 0 -14 –– 0 -14

years of ageyears of age


Reproductive AgeReproductive Age –– 15 - 64 –– 15 - 64


Post-Reproductive AgePost-Reproductive Age –– over 65 –– over 65


Population GrowthPopulation GrowthPost-Reproductive Survival

and Longevity Contributes very little to Contributes very little to

population growthpopulation growth Relatively small percentage Relatively small percentage

of total populationof total population No longer adding to population No longer adding to population

through the birth of childrenthrough the birth of children

Pre-reproductive survival is most

important in population growth


Individuals that survive the

pre-reproductive period

contribute to population growth

through reproduction

Pre-Reproductive DeathPre-Reproductive Death= adult = surviving child = childhood death

Pre-Reproductive SurvivalPre-Reproductive Survival= adult = surviving child = childhood death




population growth is occurring in the LDCspopulation growth is occurring in the LDCs


population growth is occurring in thepopulation growth is occurring in the MDCsMDCs

Population GrowthPopulation Growth Why the large difference in Why the large difference in

population growth rates of population growth rates of MDCs an LDCs ?MDCs an LDCs ?

MDCs have completed theMDCs have completed the Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition

Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition Describes population trends historically seen in the currently

More Developed Countries (MDCs)

Proposed explanation for current low population growth

rates of MDCs

Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition

Four PhasesFour Phases


Phase 1 Primitive Stability

Phase 2 Epidemiological Transition

Phase 3 Fertility Transition Phase 4 Modern Stability

Phase 1Phase 1 Primitive StabilityPrimitive Stability


High Birth RatesHigh Birth Rates High Death RatesHigh Death Rates

Little-or-No Population GrowthLittle-or-No Population Growth


Phase 2 Epidemiological Transition

Birth Rates remain highBirth Rates remain high Death Rates declineDeath Rates decline

See before on “Why the survival boom ?”See before on “Why the survival boom ?”

Rapid Population GrowthRapid Population Growth


Phase 3Phase 3 Fertility TransitionFertility Transition

Birth Rates declineBirth Rates decline

Low Death RatesLow Death Rates Population Growth slowsPopulation Growth slows

Attributed to economic developmentAttributed to economic development

Economic Development Economic Development and Birth Ratesand Birth Rates


With industrialization and economic With industrialization and economic development – living standards improveddevelopment – living standards improved Couples realized that fewer children would Couples realized that fewer children would allow maintenance of higher living standardsallow maintenance of higher living standards

Couples voluntarily limited family size

Birth rates declined with economic growthBirth rates declined with economic growth


Phase 4Phase 4 Modern StabilityModern Stability

Low Birth RatesLow Birth Rates Low Death RatesLow Death Rates

Little-or-No Population GrowthLittle-or-No Population Growth

Will the Demographic Transition slow Will the Demographic Transition slow population growth in the LDCs ?population growth in the LDCs ?


Currently, the LDCs are stuck in PhaseCurrently, the LDCs are stuck in Phase

2 of the Demographic Transition2 of the Demographic Transition

Phase 2 is the stage of rapid population

growth

Will the Demographic Transition slow Will the Demographic Transition slow population growth in the LDCs ?population growth in the LDCs ?


It can contribute, It can contribute, BUTBUT

the demographic transition the demographic transition alonealone is not is not sufficient, sufficient, ANDAND

there is TOO MUCH at stake to assume there is TOO MUCH at stake to assume that it will succeedthat it will succeed

Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition The Demographic Transition The Demographic Transition alonealone is is

not sufficient to slow population growth not sufficient to slow population growth in the LDCs ?in the LDCs ?

1. It may take too long1. It may take too long it took 200 years for the current MDCs we can’t wait that long – when some countries are doubling in population every 20 years



2. Economic development requires 2. Economic development requires

monetary capitalmonetary capital

many LDCs are desperately poor many LDCs owe vast sums to MDCs




natural resourcesnatural resources

many LDCs lack abundant natural

resources




energyenergy

many LDCs lack fossil fuel energy supplies

the days of cheap fossil fuels are ending




an educated and trained workforcean educated and trained workforce

many LDCs struggle to provide even

minimal education for their people



6. Real economic growth must outpace6. Real economic growth must outpace


in many LDCs, population growth is faster than economic growth – they are actually losing ground

Controlling Population GrowthControlling Population Growth

If the Demographic Transition If the Demographic Transition alonealone is not sufficient, how can is not sufficient, how can population growth be controlled ?population growth be controlled ?

Family PlanningFamily Planning

is the best answeris the best answer


Information and technologyInformation and technology

that allows a couple to that allows a couple to

determine the number and thedetermine the number and the

spacing of their childrenspacing of their children

ContraceptionContraception


Birth ControlBirth Control

prevention of a pregnancy

prevention of a birth

Types of Family Planning ProgramsTypes of Family Planning Programs


VoluntaryVoluntary

Extended VoluntaryExtended Voluntary

ForcedForced

Family PlanningFamily PlanningVoluntary Family Planning Voluntary Family Planning

ProgramsPrograms

information and technology is available government provides neither incentives nor punishments

United States

Family PlanningFamily PlanningExtended Voluntary Family Extended Voluntary Family

Planning ProgramsPlanning Programs

information and technology is available government encourages and provides positive incentives for participation India

Family PlanningFamily PlanningForced Family Planning Forced Family Planning

ProgramsPrograms

information and technology is available government requires and provides negative incentives for non-participation China

There are numerous obstacles to the There are numerous obstacles to the success of family planning programssuccess of family planning programs

Family PlanningFamily PlanningThere is no single approach that There is no single approach that works for all countriesworks for all countries

Each country has unique challenges and must develop a program that succeeds for that country

Obstacles to Success of Obstacles to Success of Family Planning ProgramsFamily Planning Programs


1. Religious Beliefs1. Religious Beliefs some major religions, Catholic and Islamic, oppose artificial control of reproductionMany LDCs have large Catholic Many LDCs have large Catholic or Islamic populationsor Islamic populations



2. Cultural Tradition2. Cultural Tradition

some cultures value large families

a large family may be seen as part of fulfillment of ethnic heritage



3. Personal Tradition and Desire3. Personal Tradition and Desire

some individuals value large families

a large family may be seen as part of personal fulfillment



4. Extra Children Assure That 4. Extra Children Assure That Some Will SurviveSome Will Survive where infant and childhood death have been common, parents may have “extra” children to offset the potential death of some children



5. Children As Source of Labor 5. Children As Source of Labor and Incomeand Income

in rural areas, more children means more helpers in the fields in urban areas, more children means more wage earners for the family



6. Children As Old Age Security6. Children As Old Age Security most countries lack “social security” programs for the elderly traditionally, children care for their traditionally, children care for their elderly parentselderly parents

more children means better probability more children means better probability of care in elder yearsof care in elder years



7. Macho Attitude7. Macho Attitude some men may see the number of children fathered as a measure of their masculinity more children shows that he is more children shows that he is “more of a man”“more of a man”



8. Lack of Knowledge8. Lack of Knowledge many individuals lack basic reproductive knowledge, such as days of the menstrual cycle when days of the menstrual cycle when pregnancy is most likelypregnancy is most likely proper use of contraceptive devices proper use of contraceptive devices such as a condomsuch as a condom



9. Costs of Materials9. Costs of Materialscontraceptive materials may cost a substantial fraction of a poor family’s incomelimited funds may go for food or limited funds may go for food or medicine, rather than contraception medicine, rather than contraception



10. Availability of Information10. Availability of Information mass media may be lacking or unavailable to many individuals

printed materials may not help printed materials may not help illiterate individualsilliterate individuals



11. Availability of Materials11. Availability of Materials in rural areas, the nearest distribution site may be a days walk away

quantities of available supplies may quantities of available supplies may be inadequate to meet the needsbe inadequate to meet the needs



12. Program Costs12. Program Costs informative materials, contraceptive supplies, and personnel are expensive

these expenses may drain the budgets these expenses may drain the budgets of poor governments or aid agenciesof poor governments or aid agencies



13. Status of Women13. Status of Women in some cultures, women are second class citizens

in some cultures, women are not in some cultures, women are not allowed to make decisions about family allowed to make decisions about family size – it is the man who has the saysize – it is the man who has the say



13. Status of Women13. Status of Women

in some cultures, there are few opportunities for women outside of the home

in some cultures, women are not in some cultures, women are not given economic rightsgiven economic rights



13. Status of Women13. Status of Women in some cultures, women are often in some cultures, women are often denied educational opportunitiesdenied educational opportunities



13. Status of Women13. Status of Women one of the few steps in slowing one of the few steps in slowing population growth that has been found population growth that has been found effective effective across culturesacross cultures is is

Increasing female literacy and Increasing female literacy and educationeducation

How can MDCs assist LDCs in How can MDCs assist LDCs in family planning programs ?family planning programs ?


direct financial aiddirect financial aid

provision of supplies & materialsprovision of supplies & materials

skilled personnel to help train skilled personnel to help train local family planning workerslocal family planning workers

What is your opinion ?What is your opinion ?


How do you feel about the How do you feel about the availability and effectiveness of availability and effectiveness of family planning programs in the family planning programs in the

United States ?United States ?

Population Terms

Replacement-Level FertilityReplacement-Level Fertility

Zero Population GrowthZero Population Growth

when couples have only two children – when couples have only two children – exactly replacing themselvesexactly replacing themselves

when there is replacement-level fertility when there is replacement-level fertility ANDAND net emigration and immigration is net emigration and immigration is equal to zeroequal to zero

EmigrationEmigration

Population Terms

ImmigrationImmigration

movement out of a country or regionmovement out of a country or region

E = Exit = EmigrationE = Exit = Emigration

movement into a country or regionmovement into a country or region I = Into = ImmigrationI = Into = Immigration

U.S. Population GrowthU.S. Population Growth

A substantial part of United States population growth is due to immigration – both legal and illegal

What is your opinion ?What is your opinion ?

U.S. Population GrowthU.S. Population Growth

What do you think should be What do you think should be the immigration policy of the the immigration policy of the United States ?United States ?

population. population the central environmental issue the most important environmental issue the...

Documents

second148more people

population issue

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deaths78 millionmore

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