population growth, food production and land use prof. dr. ir. patrick van damme (with input by l....
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Population growth, food Population growth, food production and land useproduction and land use
Prof. Dr. Ir. Patrick Van DammeProf. Dr. Ir. Patrick Van Damme(with input by L. Raes)(with input by L. Raes)
[email protected]@UGent.Be
9 December 20109 December 2010
History of Population Growth History of Population Growth and Food Productionand Food Production
Historical Population GrowthHistorical Population Growth
Source: Stein, 2008
Evolution Population DensityEvolution Population Density
Source: Goldwijk, 2001
Evolution Population Density cont’Evolution Population Density cont’
Source: Goldwijk, 2001
Evolution Population Density cont’Evolution Population Density cont’
Source: Goldwijk, 2001
Evolution Population Density cont’Evolution Population Density cont’
Source: Goldwijk, 2001
Evolution of Land Use for AgricultureEvolution of Land Use for Agriculture
Source: Rankin, 2009
Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’
Source: Rankin, 2009
Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’
Source: Rankin, 2009
Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’
Source: Rankin, 2009
Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’
Source: Rankin, 2009
Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture contEvolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’’
Source: Rankin, 2009
Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’Evolution of Land Use for Agriculture cont’
Source: Rankin, 2009
Recent History of Recent History of per Capita Food per Capita Food Consumption Consumption (kcal/person/day)
Source: FAO, 2002
Recent Evolution of Meat ConsumptionRecent Evolution of Meat Consumption
Source: FAO, 2006
Global Biofuel Production (2000-2007)Global Biofuel Production (2000-2007)
Source: IEA, 2008
• Population growth contributed only marginally to increasing demand for cereals, including wheat, rice and corn
→ growing consumption of meat and dairy products in developing world (higher incomes and urbanization)
→ more grain is being fed to livestock
• Crop use for biofuel production growing even faster• Almost all increase in global maize production between 2004
and 2007 went to make corn-based ethanol in US→ amount of corn required to fill one gas tank with ethanol fuel
could feed one person for an entire year (Davis, 2008)
World fish capture and aquaculture World fish capture and aquaculture productionproduction
Source: FAO, 2003
But, Undernutrition Still is a Major But, Undernutrition Still is a Major ProblemProblem
Source: FAO, 2009
Undernutrition per Region Undernutrition per Region (millions)
FAO, 2009
So does the world produce enough food to feed everyone?So does the world produce enough food to feed everyone?
• YES• World agriculture produces 17 percent more calories
per person today than 30 years ago, despite 70 percent population increase
→ enough food to provide everyone with at least 2,720 kilocalories (kcal) per person per day (FAO 2002)
→but, many people in the world do not have sufficient land to grow, or income to purchase, enough food (self-sufficiency ?)
• BUT:• result of agricultural modernization, changes in diets and
population density→ humankind increasingly depends on reduced amount of
agricultural biological diversity for its food supplies→ a dozen species of animals provide 90 percent of animal
protein consumed globally → just four crop species provide half of plant-based calories in
the human diet
(FAO, 2009)
Current Situation of Food Current Situation of Food Production and Land UseProduction and Land Use
Extent of Cultivated Systems, 2000 Extent of Cultivated Systems, 2000
Cultivated systems cover 24% of the global terrestrialsurface
• Much of natural resource base in use worldwide shows worrying signs of degradation
• According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 15 out of 24 ecosystem services examined are already being degraded or used unsustainably
e.g. capture fisheries and water supply
Intensification of some ecosystem services, such ‘food production’, cause the degradation of others
Soil nutrient depletion Erosion Desertification, Depletion of freshwater reserves Loss of tropical forest and biodiversity
Locations Undergoing High Rates of Land CoverLocations Undergoing High Rates of Land CoverChange in the Past Few DecadesChange in the Past Few Decades
Dead zones in the world, due to leakage of Dead zones in the world, due to leakage of fertilisers fertilisers rich in nitrates and phosphates + sewage dischargesrich in nitrates and phosphates + sewage discharges
Source: Diaz and Rosenberg, 2007
Status of Terrestrial EcoregionsStatus of Terrestrial Ecoregions
Source: WWF, 2006
Mean Species AbundanceMean Species Abundance
Source: UNEP, 2009
75% of the major marine fish stocks are either depleted, overexploited or being fished at their biological limit
Source: FAO, 2002
Future Population Growth and Future Population Growth and Food ProductionFood Production
Population dynamics by development groups, 1950-2050Population dynamics by development groups, 1950-2050
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social UN, 2005
Future Trend Future Trend per Capita Food per Capita Food Consumption Consumption (kcal/person/day)
Source: FAO, 2002
Global Progress in food consumptionGlobal Progress in food consumption
Source: FAO, 2002
Future Consumption of Animal Protein Future Consumption of Animal Protein (kg/person/region)
World ethanol and biodiesel projections, 2005-2018World ethanol and biodiesel projections, 2005-2018
Source: FAO-OECD, 2009
Recent Increases in Food PricesRecent Increases in Food Prices
Source: FAO
The “why” of high food prices The “why” of high food prices
Longer term factors of price increase:
• continued population growth in developing countries • changing consumer tastes• the increasing demand for food and feed crops to use in biofuel
production• the lack of investment in developing country (small-scale !) agriculture
in recent decades• rising energy and associated fertiliser prices, which have significantly
increased cost of agricultural production, food processing and food distribution
Conflict over ResourcesConflict over Resources
Need for more land, water, energy and otherinputs to produce more for more people
Diminishing Land Diminishing Land per Personper Person
Source: UNEP, 2009
Source: Erb et al., 2007
What land will we What land will we use to produce use to produce more food?more food?
Agricultural SuitabilityAgricultural Suitability
Source: Ramankutty et al., 2001
Arable LandArable Land
Source: Bruinsma, 2009
Potential for Cropland Expansion?Potential for Cropland Expansion?
Source: Bruinsma, 2009
• The world has considerable land reserves which could in theory be converted to arable land
• However, extent to which this can be realized is limited1. some of lands currently not cultivated have important
ecological functions which would be lost2. land mostly located in just a few countries in Latin America
and sub-Saharan Africa, where lack of access and infrastructure could limit their use
FAO projects that by 2050 the area of arable land will be
expanded by 70 million hectares, or about 5 percent (FAO, 2009)
Sources of growth for major cereals in Sources of growth for major cereals in developing countriesdeveloping countries (%)
Source: FAO, 2009
Climate change threatens to exacerbate Climate change threatens to exacerbate food insecurityfood insecurity
IPCC predicts that• rising temperatures will decrease yields in 40
developing countries, and• three degrees of warming (°C) will increase the price
of food by 40%
Change in Agricultural Output Potential in Change in Agricultural Output Potential in 2080 Due to Climate Change2080 Due to Climate Change
Source: Cline, 2007
Projected percentage gain and losses in rainfed Projected percentage gain and losses in rainfed cereal production potential by 2080cereal production potential by 2080
Source: UNEP, 2006
Possible Solutions?Possible Solutions?
Some MythsSome Myths• Myth: Too Many PeopleMyth: Too Many People• RealityReality
– rapid population growth results from underlying inequities that deprive people, especially poor women, of economic opportunity and security
– reduced poverty and better education lower mortality rates, which generally leads to declining birth rates
• Myth: The environment versus more food ? Or: does the environment suffer if Myth: The environment versus more food ? Or: does the environment suffer if and when more food is produced ?… and when more food is produced ?…
• RealityReality – efforts to feed the hungry are not causing the environmental crisis– large corporations are mainly responsible for deforestation and profiting from
developed-country consumer demand for tropical hardwoods and exotic or out-of-season food items
– most pesticides used in the Third World are applied to export crops, playing little role in feeding the hungry
Obvious Solutions?Obvious Solutions?
Slow population increase in less-developed nations through family planning and empowerment of women
Change destructive consumption and production patterns in more developed nations
Establishment of Protected AreasEstablishment of Protected AreasDegree of protection of terrestrial ecoregions and
large marine ecosystems (per cent)
Source: UNEP/WCMC, 2006
Change Dietary PatternsChange Dietary PatternsGlobal Obesity: BMI ≥ 30 kg/m² - Top 30
Source: IASO, 2009
Restore Degraded LandsRestore Degraded Lands• recent analysis by the World Resources Institute (WRI)
suggests that there are more than one billion degraded hectares globally (area larger than Brazil)
• Some of these lands can and should be restored to their native forest state, creating habitat for wildlife, reducing erosion, ensuring clean water supplies, and combating climate change by absorbing carbon dioxide
• Others could be utilized for agriculture and thus relieve pressure on the world’s remaining virgin forests while creating local livelihoods
• (McLeish & Hanson, 2010)
Use of degraded landsUse of degraded lands
Source: McLeish & Hanson, 2010
Support Small FarmersSupport Small Farmers– small farmers typically achieve at least four to five
times greater output per ha than large-scale farmers, in part because they work their land more intensively and use integrated, and often more sustainable, production systems
– secure land tenure is needed, to give farmers incentives to invest in land improvements, to rotate crops, or to leave land fallow for the sake of long-term soil fertility
1. Technological advances in molecular biology, energy, and information and communications have the potential to help achieve food security and make natural resource management more sustainable, but policymakers and researchers must target their efforts to reach poor people.
2. Environmental degradation contributes to poverty, but also often results from it. Food security solutions must effectively address natural resource issues to be sustainable
3. Current policies must continue to focus on the countryside, where the majority of poor and food-insecure people still live, but future policy actions must pay increasing attention to growing poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition in urban areas
4. Agricultural policies must focus on finding ways to keep agriculture productive as climate change continues.
Policy measuresPolicy measures1. publicly funded research and development to achieve sustainable yield
increases on existing land2. farmers must be able to choose agricultural practices and technologies
from the full range of approaches available — agro-ecological methods, conventional research methods, and molecular biology research methods.
3. improved water use efficiency is needed. 4. policies should encourage farmers to make appropriate use of organic
and inorganic fertilizers and improved soil management 5. secure farmers' rights to land and other resources. 6. farmers should adopt practices to alleviate global warming, such as
reducing the burning of crop residues, and planting trees and avoiding deforestation
Thank you…Thank you…