Population censuses and surveys as complementary sources of a vital

statistical system

László Kajdi

Hungarian Central Statistical Office

Expert Group Meeting on International Standards for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems, 27-30 June 2011

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Reasons for the development of the vital statistics system

Change in legal regulations Change in technical, IT circumstances New reuirements of political, social decision

makers Change of international data production

demands Needs of users, professional stakeholders Changes in social-demographic processes

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Hungarian vital statistics system

Civil registration system: Livebirths, deaths, including foetal and infant deaths Marriages, registered partnerships, divorcesInternal and international migrationLegal background: Act on Statistics, decree on the

implementationComprehensive data collection, processing,

disseminationNext census in October 2011

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I. Vital statistics data and indicators based on census data

1. Vital statistics by socio-economic status (SES)

2. Fertility analyses3. Projection of the female population by the

number of children4. Census data on migration5. Differences between census and projected

population

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I.1 Vital statistics by SES

If census and vital statistics data linked by an identification number: directly

If there is no ID number: census population = denominator

3 main indicators: education, occupation, economic status

Numerator-denominator bias; standards LFS, HALE

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I.2 Fertility analyses

Number of children by cohorts, analyses by SES

Sex preferences – level of fertility

Differences by legal and actual marital status

Information on ethnicity

Male fertility

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I.3 Projection of the female population by the number of children

Female census population by date of birth, age, number of children as initial data

Tables from the data of annual livebirth and death statistics with the same disaggregation

The projection is based on the biological live birth order

Main purpose: analysis of fertility and childbearing behaviour by cohorts in intercensus years

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I.4 Census data on migration

Fertility and mortality differences between the immigrating and native population

Census: improve the accuracy of migration data

Mirror statistics: use at other fields too, e.g. births and deaths in foreign countries

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I.5 Differences between census and projected population

Is it worth to revise population data and indicators, in what disaggregation

No international standards for the acceptable deviation

No break in time series vs. two data for the same time period, resource need

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II. Sample surveys as complementary information

1. Healthy life expectancy (HLE)

2. Unmet need for contraception

3. Voluntary and involuntary childlessness

4. Realizing childbearing intentions

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II.1 Healthy life expectancy

Extended life expectancy vs. life quality Measuring mortality conditions and health

status paralell with time spent in good health conditions

Information on health status from repr. surveys, EU-SILC e.g.

Soft indicator: answers by self-assessment

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II.2 Unmet need for contraception

Differences between developing and developed countries

Problems: sensitivity, resources

Hungarian experiences

Complementary indicator: induced abortions per hundred live births

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II.3 Voluntary and involuntary childlessness

Countries with low fertility, trends of the age of childbearing and marriage

Reasons for childlessness: voluntary, involuntary

Social effects: Low fertility trap, health risk factors, social policy

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II.4 Realizing childbearing intentions

Family planning – the use of modern contraceptive methods

Childbearing intentions vs. Actual fertility Role of sample surveys, social policy REPRO: 4 countries: Bulgaria, Hungary,

Netherlands, Switzerland; 3 categories: intentional parents, postponers, abandoners

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Thank you for your attention!