Popular Responses to Spatial Inequality

Prof Ivan Turok & Dr Jackie Borel-SaladinEconomic Performance and Development

HSRC

DST Government Cluster Policy Workshop

September 10th 2013

Context• Spatial inequalities are large & difficult to tackle• Reflect long history of pernicious policies of separating people from opportunities

• Powerful economic forces + vested interests• Many continuing tendencies to separation, especially by middle and upper-income groups

• Government policy has been light touch and favoured national redistribution and welfare

• Something else going on – people voting with their feet. Positive, developmental & deserves greater support – economic participation

2

Jobs-population misalignment: Main source of h’hold income

71%

46%

66%

43%

8%

20%

7%

13%

12%

25% 14%

33%

6% 7%9%

7%

4% 3% 5% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Cities 2002 Rural areas 2002 Cities 2010 Rural areas 2010

Salaries/wages Remittances Pensions/grants Other income Other/unspecified

4

Employment rate (source: LFS)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Perc

enta

ge e

mpl

oym

ent

Year

Urbanformal

Urbaninformal

Rural

5

Despite inferior education

Urban formal Urban informal Rural0

10

20

30

40

50

No schooling

Less than primary completed

Primary completed

Secondary not completed

Secondary completed

Tertiary

Other

6

And less life/work experience (age)

Urban formal Urban informal Rural0

5

10

15

20

25

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

7

Other hazards of informal settlements

•Lack of basic services• Isolated locations• Inadequate transport•Vulnerability to fire, flooding, subsidence • Insecurity and crime• Ill-health and infectious diseases• Inadequate schools etc•Ambivalent government policy

8

Similar number of hours worked

Urban formal Urban informal Rural0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1-25

26-40

41-60

61-112

9

Nature of contract

Urban formal Urban informal Rural0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Not applicable

A written contract

A verbal agreement

10

Type of employment

Urban formal Urban informal Rural0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Formal sector (non-agricultural)

Informal sector (non-agricul-tural)

Agriculture

Private households

11

Main occupation

Urban formal Urban informal Rural0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35Legislators, senior officials and managers

Professionals

Technical and associate professionals

Clerks

Service workers and shop and market sales workers

Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

Craft and related trades workers

Plant and machine opera-tors and assemblers

Elementary Occupation

Domestic workers

12

Trends in employment

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Percen

tage

Year

TotalMetros

TotalSecondaryCities

Rest ofSouthAfrica

Source: IHS Global Insight

13

Employment growth 1996-2012

Source: IHS Global Insight

74.9%

10.6%

14.5%TotalMetros

TotalSecondaryCities

Rest ofSouthAfrica

14

Trends in population

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Percen

tage

Year

TotalMetros

TotalSecondarycities

Rest ofSouthAfrica

Better alignment: population versus jobs growth (2001-2011)

16

Conclusion

• Many positive aspects of spatial adjustment• No panacea of course • Requires greater support from different government spheres to facilitate the process and reduce barriers

17

Thank you!