economic performance and development prof ivan turok

Economic Performance and Development

Prof Ivan Turok

MTBPS October 2014

Challenges and opportunities for:

1. accelerating economic growth

2. infrastructure investment

3. job creation

MTBPS October 2014

Challenges and opportunities for:

1. accelerating economic growth

2. infrastructure investment

3. job creation

ContextContext

• Slowdown in economic growth

• Weak global economy

• High government debt (46% of GDP)

• Large budget deficit (4% of GDP)

• Large foreign trade deficit

• Growth of public spending and public sector jobs (now 30% of total formal sector non-farm wage bill)

• Poor investment climate, weak business & consumer confidence

Overall assessmentOverall assessment

• More prudent approach than in the recent past – “restraint … taking the pain”. Focus on efficiency

• Commitment to contain public spending and the budget deficit to limit the growth of borrowing

• Tougher approach to managing state entities (eg Eskom, SAA) including sale of non-core assets (eg property and shareholdings)

• Commitment to increase private sector investment and expertise in public infrastructure

• Some tax increases (no details given)

• Uncertainty about ability to implement all this

Accelerating economic growthAccelerating economic growth

• Growth expected to slow from Feb 2014 forecast of 2.7% (for 2014), 3.2% (2015) and 3.5% (2016) to 1.4% (for 2014), 2.5% (2015) and 2.8% (2016)

• Efforts to encourage private investment by:

• Involvement in strategic infrastructure projects

• New forum for business to make inputs

• Removing obstacles to private investment

• Increased emphasis on manufacturing and exports to rest of Africa

Infrastructure investmentInfrastructure investment

• Investment in infrastructure has been slow to grow, but is now 20% of GDP

• Much has been on social programmes – schools, hospitals, housing, water, sanitation, electrification

• Early days for transport and communications infrastructure investment

• Scope for private investment is uncertain

Job creationJob creation

• Growth of public sector employment will be very slow

• Directly and indirectly (eg in state entities)

• Its early days for infrastructure investment

• Private sector employment will also be restrained by slow domestic growth and infrastructure blockages

• Manufacturing and exports are not labour-intensive

Important new emphasis (1)Important new emphasis (1)

• Focus on reviving investment in cities

• “Well-planned and well-managed urbanisation can accelerate economic growth”

• Massive municipal investment needed to stimulate growth, maintain infrastructure & expand basic services

• A new approach to local government infrastructure financing over the next 3 years

• Treasury will work with financial institutions to expand the municipal debt market


• The government aims to transform urban spaces, through greater integration of residential areas, employment and trade.

• Incentives to encourage metros to promote more compact, efficient and equitable cities by aligning planning and infrastructure investment

• Reform infrastructure grants to local government to scale up the provision of well-located and affordable social housing and upgrade informal settlements

• R560 billion in grants in grants over 3 years to assist in providing bulk infrastructure, electrification, schools, clinics and water


• Review of RDP housing programme• “The current approach to housing is also being reviewed to

develop an approach that is more effective and affordable, and which will help to densify cities”

Education and Skills Development

Dr Vijay Reddy

Challenges and opportunities in enhancing state resource allocation effectiveness for basic education and post school education

and training

Challenges and opportunities in enhancing state resource allocation effectiveness for basic education and post school education

and training

1. Focus of the budget1. Focus of the budget

• Education and skills development are key to support growth, development and employment.

• R833 billion is proposed over the 3 year MTEF period for education and skills development.

• Basic education receives 15% of budget• Post-school education and training: fastest-growing share of

the budget, and will continue to expand.

• After 20 years how do we ask the questions about allocation effectiveness? Has to be more than only budget allocation.

2. Framing this presentation2. Framing this presentation

• The debate must be taken forward – new questions.• Need to appreciate new complexities and nuances and ‘fit for

purpose’.• We cannot talk about education or skills in isolation. Schooling

and education must be linked to home, community & society. Skills/PSET must be linked to economic and societal development.

• Basic education: look at performance, differentiate to sub-groups and link to contexts and home.

• Post-school education and training/ skills: what of type of skills do we need - skills planning .

3. Improving educational performance

3. Improving educational performance

• For improved educational outcomes we must look at home & school. Differentiate by no-fee, fee-paying and independent schools.

• Schooling is both National and Provincial competence. How do we also include provincial accountability?

• MTEF allocation to provinces: (i) School infrastructure & (ii) Dinaledi schools grant is a new maths, science and technology grant, allocated to provinces (Dinaledi must be more than on paper).

• This presentation will focus on findings from large scale assessment.

3.1. Link between development and mathematics achievement

3.1. Link between development and mathematics achievement

3.2. 20-year trends in math and science achievement

3.2. 20-year trends in math and science achievement

3.3.Change in achievement by province between 2002 to 20113.3.Change in achievement by province between 2002 to 2011

Change in achievement by province between 2002 to 2011

Change in achievement by province between 2002 to 2011

3.4. South Africa and other countries

3.4. South Africa and other countries

3.5. Forward trajectory……. 3.5. Forward trajectory…….

YEAR Grade 9 Math scores

2023 442

2019 412

2015 382

2011 352

2002 285

1999 296 (extrapolated)

1995 294 (extrapolated)

• Work towards improvement of both lower and top end of performance.

• With the effort and commitment of schools, teachers and learners and support from the educational departments we should set the target for an improvement by 30 points to reach a score of 382 in 2015 & 40% of learners score above 400 points & 2% above 625 points.

4.1.Home Resources(SES) by school type

4.1.Home Resources(SES) by school type

Resource at home Public schools (2002) No Fee (2011) Fee paying (2011) Independent (2011)

Computer 33% 23% 44% 77%

Own books 60% 68% 82%

Internet connection 21% 38% 69%

Own cellphone 74% 81% 92%

Dictionary 78% 63% 81% 94%

Electricity 80% 79% 92% 98%

Running tap water 64% 59% 80% 92%

Television 82% 82% 92% 98%

Radio 92% 79% 85% 89%

Water flushed toilets 48% 31% 66% 86%

Motor car 38% 29% 47% 78%

Telephone 54% 27% 34% 56%

Fridge 73% 71% 86% 95%

4.2. Characteristics by School type4.2. Characteristics by School typeNO FEE FEE PAYING INDEPEND

ACHIEVEMENT

Average mathematics score 324 397 474

% achieving at or above 400 in math 12% 44% 71%

LEARNERS

Average age of learners in years 16.2 years 15.8 years 15.4 years

HOME RESOURCES

Parent with university education 13% 28% 57%

Language of the test at home: Always 17% 31% 56%

SCHOOL PHYSICAL RESOURCES:

Textbooks as basis for instruction 71% 71% 83%

Workbooks as basis for instruction 47% 34% 36%

SCHOOL SAFETY

Bullying: almost never experienced 19% 36% 42%

5. From the MTBPS: Infrastructure5. From the MTBPS: Infrastructure

• Infrastructure: Funds allocated to provinces – plans silent about the role of Public Works Department.

• Focus to date has been on school building infrastructure & resources of desks etc. Need these categories to also include pedagogical infrastructure (e.g. laboratories) & pedagogical resources (e.g. calculators, computers, math sets)

6.1. Planning post school education and training – what type of skills are needed?

6.1. Planning post school education and training – what type of skills are needed?

• How do we use the budget allocation to direct skills development to support economic growth.

• South Africa is investing in a skills planning mechanism. Understand the supply and demand for intermediate and

professional level skills Direct government resources at those skill areas where

people are likely to get employment and thus tackle unemployment

Support government’s economic development strategy and target education/skills resources to areas in most need and thus tackle skills shortages

Improve South Africa’s competitiveness and support improved social cohesiveness, as well as poverty alleviation

6.2. Proposed model for skills planning 6.2. Proposed model for skills planning

Labour Market Intelligence Partnership proposes an integrated economic approach to education and skills planning:improved levels of education and training for the populationimproved workplace skills training and emphasis on a demand driven approach to planning in which strategies for skills development (both professional and intermediate) are aligned to policies for industrial development and skills biased growth strategies.

Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation Cabinet

Skills Planning Council Skills Planning Council

Economic & other govt. deptsDHA, DST

DHET DHET

PlanningUnit

PlanningUnit

Integrated plan for national

development

Macro level economic plans

Post School Education and Training Plan

Sector skills plans

Enterprise/ Institutional level

plans

SETAs

E & T ProvidersFirms Universities Colleges

National level National level developmentdevelopmentNational level National level developmentdevelopment

Skills demand at Skills demand at the national the national

levellevel

Skills demand at Skills demand at the national the national

levellevel

Skills demand at Skills demand at the sector level the sector level in firms and ET in firms and ET

providersproviders

Skills demand at Skills demand at the sector level the sector level in firms and ET in firms and ET

providersproviders

Business & labour

6.3. Processes for skills planning decisions6.3. Processes for skills planning decisions

7. Specific comments from MTBPS: mid-year performance status

7. Specific comments from MTBPS: mid-year performance status

BASIC EDUCATIONConcerns (i) Workbooks delivered: 19 million of 54 million (ii) Schools built: 28 of 100.

Achievements: exceeded on Funza Lushaka bursaries; school feeding scheme and Learner unit records

POST SCHOOL EDUCATION & TRAININGConcern: headcount at FET colleges

Science, Technology and Innovation as Enablers for Socio-

Economic Development

Prof. Gillian Marcelle CeSTII

Science, Technology and Innovation as Enablers for Socio-

Economic Development

Prof. Gillian Marcelle CeSTII

STI as enablersSTI as enablers

• MTBPS identifies opportunities for structural reform, diversification and transformation of the economy

• Investment in science, technology and innovation are required to support these objectives, particularly in the identified sectoral areas of: • Energy including renewable energy technologies • Mining• Telecommunications and ICT

Role of the State Role of the State The state has an important role to play in at least three ways •State in its role as policy maker and regulator can signal that South Africa is being proactive in identifying high value and high growth areas building on its strengths; these might include capital goods and services related aspects of mining, broadband ICT networks and technologies required to transition to low-carbon production and consumption systems. The IPP is a good example of such a signal and shows the willingness to work with the private sector to achieve aims of socio economic development • Under budget cutting and cost containment, the pressure for an effective, capable

and efficient state should accelerate problem solving and solution development in critical areas where public provision of services is vital (health, education, and social services are some examples). Public sector innovation should be given greater priority and support and show the state in action

•As a large procurer of goods and services in priority sectors can change buying behaviour to promote a mind-set of genuine innovativeness (deemphasise novelty and promote usefulness and relevance)• Budget allocations should be assessed against the contribution to these goals and

activities maintained when these are furthered and enhanced.

Important Opportunity Important Opportunity

• Climate of fiscal prudence and containment provides an opportunity to strengthen and accelerate efforts to support non-technological forms of innovation and to put greater emphasis on innovation for social purposes.

• Welcome the support for public programmes such as the Community Work Programme (CWP) should be operationalised by fostering cooperation between relevant line Ministries and Departments.

• Call for further attention to E-government applications and other efforts that are state-led as well as Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) with the numerous programmes and projects spearheaded by the not for profit and NGO sector provide avenues for cost effective, delivery of public services and furthering of the long term goals of the NDP and the immediate priorities of the MTBPS as well as building social cohesion

HIV/AIDS, STIs and TB

Prof Leickness Simbayi

HIV/AIDS, STIs and TB

Prof Leickness Simbayi

Results from the HSRC’s South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and

Behavior Survey, 2012

Results from the HSRC’s South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and

Behavior Survey, 2012

HIV PREVALENCEHIV PREVALENCE

National HIV Household SurveySouth Africa 2012

National HIV Household SurveySouth Africa 2012

• HIV prevalence, total population: 12.2% (2008: 10.6%)

• 6.4 million living with HIV/AIDS

(based on Statistics South Africa’s mid-year

population estimate for 2012: 52.3 million)

HIV prevalence by age and sex, South Africa, 2012

HIV prevalence by age and sex, South Africa, 2012

ANTIRETROVIRAL TREATMENT (ART) EXPOSURE

ANTIRETROVIRAL TREATMENT (ART) EXPOSURE

ART Exposure, South Africa mid-2012

ART Exposure, South Africa mid-2012

VariableEstimated

number of people living with HIV (n)

Estimated number of

people on ART (n)

Proportion of people living with HIV on ART (%) [95% CI]

National 6,422,000 2,002,000 31.2 [28.1-34.5]

Males 2,531,000 651,000 25.7 [21.2-30.8]

Females 3,873,000 1,344,000 34.7 [31.4-38.2]

ART Exposure by Age Group, South Africa mid-2012

ART Exposure by Age Group, South Africa mid-2012

VariableEstimated

number of people living with HIV (n)

Estimated number of

people on ART (n)

Proportion of people living with HIV on ART (%) [95% CI]

Age group

0-14 368,879 166,025 45.1 [33.9-56.9]

15-24 720,269 102,868 14.3 [10.0-20.0]

25-49 4,705,506 1,466,412 31.2 [27.4-35.2]

50 and older 610,323 260,490 42.7 [35.7-50.0]

15-49 5,425,776 1,569,280 28.9 [25.6-32.5]

Total 6,422,179 2,002,350 31.2 [28.1-34.5]

HIV prevalence among females, South Africa 2008-2012

HIV prevalence among females, South Africa 2008-2012

HIV INCIDENCEHIV INCIDENCE

Measuring HIV incidence South Africa 2012


1. Direct HIV incidence using blood specimens

- Multi - assay testing algorithm

HIV incidence rates by age group, South Africa 2012

HIV incidence rates by age group, South Africa 2012

Age Groups HIV incidence % (95% CI)

Age ≥ 2years Total 1.07 (0.87 – 1.27)Male 0.71 (0.57 - 0.85)Female 1.46 (1.18 - 1.84)Age 15-24 years Total 1.49 (1.21 – 1.88)Male 0.55 (0.45 - 0.65)Female 2.54 (2.04 - 3.04)Age 15-49 years Total 1.72 (1.38 – 2.06)Male 1.21 (0.97 - 1.45)Female 2.28 (1.84 - 2.74)

HIV incidence rates by behavioral and socio-demographic variables

(15-49 age group), South Africa 2012

HIV incidence rates by behavioral and socio-demographic variables

(15-49 age group), South Africa 2012

Variables HIV incidence % (95% CI)

Marital status Married 0.55 (0.45 - 0.65)Single 2.28 (1.82 – 2.74)Cohabiting (living together) 3.08 (2.48-3.68)Number of sexual partners in the past 12 months

One partner 1.67 (1.33 - 2.01)

More than one partner 2.43 (1.95 - 2.91)

Selected at-risk populations

Black African females 20-34 years 4.54 (3.64-5.44)

Black African males 25-49 years 1.84 (1.48-2.20)



2. Indirect HIV incidence using a mathematical model

- HIV incidence estimation from HIV prevalence data collected in repeated national population-based surveys (HSRC 2002, 2005, 2008 & 2012)

Modelled HIV incidence rates by age, South Africa 2002-2005,

2005-2008 and 2008-2012

Modelled HIV incidence rates by age, South Africa 2002-2005,

2005-2008 and 2008-2012

Allocation to healthAllocation to health• The HSRC welcomes the allocation of 11 % of total

spending on health and especially the fact that the Comprehensive HIV and AIDS Conditional Grant will grow by about 13 per cent a year over the 3-year medium term.

• According to the 2014 MTBPS Full document “A large share of spending growth covers the expanding provision of antiretroviral drugs, which now reach 2.7 million people.” (see p. 33).

• In particular, we welcome the emphasis of government’s wish to improve the quality of our health services just as they wish to do for our educational services.

• The government must be commended for allocating R32.6 million for the Department of Health for Ebola control and prevention measures, including support for affected West African countries. This reflects the true spirit of both Ubuntu and African Renaissance and clearly illustrates the excellent leadership our country provides on the continent.

Health (2)Health (2)• However, it must be noted that the total allocation to Health is still

far below the 15% target for health spending that our country committed itself to in the Abuja Declaration in 2001 as did other countries in the African Union.

• While we continue to make great inroads in so far as treatment and management of HIV especially using antiretroviral (ARV) drugs by investing over 80% using our own national resources, the proposed lack of growth in the budget allocation for health over the next 3 years is problematic for the following reasons:a) The anticipated scaling up of NHI will require more funding as it is scaled up.b) The transitioning currently occurring in major external funding sources for the

HIV/AIDS response by bilateral funders such as the USA’s President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID) which are both cutting their funding to our country during the next 3 years means that we must increase our own investment in our national HIV/AIDS response during the next 3 years.

Health (3)Health (3)c) The increase in the integration of HIV and TB treatment that is envisaged in

the NSP for HIV, STIs and TB 2012-2016d) Our 2012 national HIV survey report which we released on 1 April 2014

showed that while we are making excellent progress in terms of provision of ARV treatment, HCT and PMTCT which enjoy preferential funding, we are not doing as well in terms of HIV prevention as there were over 460 000 new infections during 2012 alone. Thus, we need to do more in terms of funding efforts involving combination prevention in general especially voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as well as structural, social and behavioural prevention interventions, apart from ongoing support for HIV and AIDS (Life Skills Education) grant and National Association of People Living with HIV and AIDS (NAPWA)

• There is also a need for more funding or improvement in efficiencies to accomplish the following:

i. Prevent stock outs of ARVsii. Provide funding for social and behavioural change communication (SBCC)

interventions like those which were done by Soul City and loveLife. iii. Support for programming that targets structural factors such as gender inequality,

gender-based violence, and alcohol abuse in our communities.

Allocation to social protectionAllocation to social protection• The HSRC welcomes the allocation of 11 % of total spending on social protection.

• According to the MTBPS Full document, “”social grants, which are expected to reach 17.3

million people by 2017/18, will account for nearly 85% of this spending. “ (see p. 33). This

shows continued commitment by the government to “social grant programmes and welfare

services in combating poverty, and the role of public health services and child-focused

programmes in reducing vulnerability” as was acknowledged in the Minister’s Speech (see

p. 5).

• Apart from various social grants to indigent families which have been shown to also reduce

the levels of new HIV infections among female adolescents and young adults, there is

also some evidence that social grants and nutritional support to PLHIV also contributes to

the successful treatment and management of HIV and AIDS.

• In view of the continuation of the national HIV Counselling and Testing (HCT) campaign

and expected expansion of ARV treatment to more PLHIV due to the lowering of the main

eligibility criterion as was alluded to earlier, the number of PLHIV needing social grants and

nutritional support will also increase warranting more funding.

• We also welcome increases in allocation towards sub-programmes focussing on older

persons, people with disabilities, children, families, social crime prevention and victim

empowerment, and youth.

Social science that makes a difference

Population Health, Health Systems and Innovation

Prof Demetre Labadarios

Population Health, Health Systems and Innovation

Prof Demetre Labadarios

Source: (Mayosi et al., 2012)

Epidemiological TransitionEpidemiological Transition

A process in which high income countries (HIC) have progressed further than LMICs, which is in turn caused by changes in demographics and social determinants of health in LMICs like South Africa, such as:•Increased child survival

- as infectious diseases of childhood recede due to greater vaccination coverage and improved socioeconomic circumstances

•The ageing population

- with increasing proportions of the populace subject to NCDs that tend to occur in middle age and old age

•The “globalisation of risk factors” for NCDs

- such as smoking, alcohol, fast foods •Rising household incomes in LMICs

- resulting in higher expenditures on junk foods, increase in sedentary lifestyles, and rampant obesity

Triple Burden of DiseaseTriple Burden of Disease

As a result of these changes, South Africa faces a triple burden:

•Communicable disease epidemics – especially HIV and AIDS, tuberculosis, pneumonia and influenza

•Non-communicable diseases – listed above in the introduction

•Violence and injury – such as homicide, road traffic accidents

Health Priorities Health Priorities

• Growing epidemic of non-communicable diseases (NCD) and implications on the health care system

• Behavioural interventions for the prevention of NCDs• Maternal and infant/child morbidity and mortality • Adolescent health and that of adults and older citizens• BRICS health collaborative framework

Medium Term Budget Policy 2014Medium Term Budget Policy 2014• The proposed lack of growth in the budget allocation

for health over the next 3 years is problematic for the following reasons:a) The anticipated scaling up of NHI will require more funding

for:• Evaluation of pilot districts sites• Evaluation of GP contracting models• Willingness to pay or contribute for NHI study• Review of alternative funding mechanisms for hospitals• Hospital autonomy study – innovative governance &

institutional arrangements• Modeling the COSTS and CONSEQUENCES of NCDs in

South Africa• Review of NCD prevention policies in South Africab) The transitioning currently occurring in major external

funding sources means that we must increase our own investment in order to secure the sustainability of the HSRC’s unique national surveys like SABBSM, SANHANES, YRBS, MIMMS and SAGE.

Human and Social Development

Dr Benita Moolman

Human and Social Development

Dr Benita Moolman

Human and Social DevelopmentHuman and Social Development

• People centred development requires people centred research.

• HSD: relevant research using insights from the social sciences, including: psychology, sociology, gender studies, demography, cultural studies and anthropology.

• It is people who deliver services and people who benefit from them. To maximize efficiency and effectiveness is necessary to understand the actions of these people.

• Identifying key interventions for children, youth, and families (including sexualities and reproduction) and communities.

• Priorities: In line with the approach of the NDP – continually asking what type of society we are working towards.

• Links to health, education and economic development

EXAMPLE: INVESTING IN EARLY CHILDHOOD

DEVELOPMENT (ECD)

Investing in ECD ServicesInvesting in ECD Services

• Identified in the NDP as a priority: Early Childhood is a critical phase – lays the foundations for future development

• Great advances in birth registration, basic services, social protection and grade R have improved the situation for young children, but gaps remain.

• Children 3-5 years old: ± 500 000 children in ± 19 000 registered centres receive the State subsidy. Approximately 2 000 000 not receiving state supported services

• We are misses the critical 0-2 year age group – when brain development is most rapid: ¼ South African children stunted by age 2 (short for age). Stunting strongest predictor of less schooling; also predicts lower wages and poor adult health

Heckman’s CurveHeckman’s Curve

Investing in ECD ServicesInvesting in ECD Services

• The provision of population level services – as opposed to a number of small programmes operating in pockets – will require significant new investment

• These investments will benefit children immediately – and lead to long-term benefits for children, their families and society at large

• Given the way brain development operates, it is difficult (and extremely expensive) to get the same returns through investments in later years

• Services for children 0-2 years are critical

Greater equalityA powerful

mechanism to assist

redistribution

Evidence is growing that the most powerful investment in human capital that a country can make is in ECD services - with compounding returns

More education

Better learning,

more schooling

Better health

Reduces risk for chronic disease and

promotes personal &

social health

Stronger economy

Higher wages and greater productivity

Better society

Less crime and violence, greater social cohesion

ESSENTIAL CONDITIONS FOR EARLY CHILD DEVELOPMENT•Nutrition and health care•Opportunities for early learning•Safety and protection•Responsive parenting •Family support (including social protection eg CSG) (Engle et al, 2011)

Benefits of ECD InvestementsBenefits of ECD Investements

• Pregnancy

• Birth to 3 years

• 3-5 years

• Draft ECD policy and programme (2014)

- Health and Nutrition

- Birth Registration

- Social Assistance & services

- Parent Support

- Opportunities for Learning

An Essential Package of ServicesAn Essential Package of Services

Democracy, Governance and Service Delivery

Professor Daniel Plaatjies

Democracy, Governance and Service Delivery

Professor Daniel Plaatjies

Approach of the MTBPS to Capable State and Public Service


• The 2014 MTBPS based on the current economic climate sets a combination of enhanced fiscal consolidation and investment that is warranted for future economic growth.

• The poor and vulnerable must be cushioned through maintaining effective and efficient use of social expenditure, including stimulating economic development & growth and by creating jobs

• Austerity measures and cost containment contributed to fiscal consolidation including considered prudent utility of fiscal resources

• Government’s intention to intensify initiatives to combat waste, inefficiency and corruption must be endorsed

• The National Development Plan (NDP) and Medium-Term Strategic Framework (MTSF) should aggressively be implemented to address shortcomings confronting the economy

• Expenditure categories illustrate relative deprioritisation over the 2015 MTEF period are general public services, which is projected to decline by a real annual average of 0.6% over the next three years.



• Given the potential that investment in research and development can play in facilitating greater innovation, productivity and economic growth, it is surprising that this item has been low on the list of priorities.

• Greater distribution of funds via the Local Equitable Share (LES) to poorly resourced municipalities contributes to making the distribution more equitable at the margin.

• However, the spending ability and absorptive capacity of municipalities should constantly be monitored so that the beneficiaries are not disadvantaged in terms of service delivery by lack of capacity.

• Municipalities are must also use available resources efficiently and effectively, including regularly updating indigent registers so that basic services it improves access to basic services – but what about quality? to citizens.



• MTBPS confirms continuity in the policy approach to building the capacity of the public sector, particularly at local government level, through the “back-to-basics” approach, focused on improving service delivery, accountability and financial management

• Also, highlighted is the need to improve the state’s capacity to plan, manage and maintain its programmes and infrastructure

• Confirms the relative bad impacts to the economy: failures in supply of electricity, water and sanitation services that have had a negative impact on public confidence

• 2014 functions shifts that contributed to the national macro reorganisation of the state with the intent to improve the integrated capacity of state are confirmed and consolidated in the MTPBPS such as functions:• Telecommunication & postal services• Water and sanitation services



• MTBPS content confirms overall consistency between policies and programme approaches that impact on capability of state: MTSF to OBPs to MTBPS and Adjustments in ENEs

• Not only a good practice of stability and enhancement in macro-policy systems and practices, but also a consolidation of innovative administrative capacities within the state. However, greater emphasis is required on longer term planning and efficient resource allocation

• Notwithstanding, the MTBPS caps spending on consultants services and continues to propagate cost containment on spending on travel and subsistence, including lamenting the productive capacity of the public service relative to public wage spending over the years

• Argues, correctly so, that lower government consumption requires prudent management of public sector wage bill while maintaining the real value of public service salaries



• The following commitments and initiatives must be supported over the medium to long term:

• An increased focus on procurement costs through Public Procurement Review

• Cost-containment measures to identify goods and services expenditures that can be eliminated without affecting service delivery.

• Yielding efficiencies through linking the disbursement of infrastructure grants more tightly to the efficient delivery of capital projects.

• Fight waste and corruption, supported by our audit institutions and stringent monitoring and reporting requirements.



The following commitments and initiatives must be supported over the medium to long term:

An increased focus on procurement costs through Public Procurement Review

• Cost-containment measures to identify goods and services expenditures that can be eliminated without affecting service delivery.

• Yielding efficiencies through linking the disbursement of infrastructure grants more tightly to the efficient delivery of capital projects.

• Fight waste and corruption, supported by our audit institutions and stringent monitoring and reporting requirements.

economic performance and development prof ivan turok

Documents

public infrastructure

private sector investment

reviving investment

bulk infrastructure

water slide

uncertain slide

labourintensive slide

africa slide