Politics of ICT in Southeast Asia

201703076th ASEAN Forum

Okamoto Masaaki(CSEAS, Kyoto University)

Bandung City Command Center

Drone School in West Kalimantan

ASEAN in the Last 15 Years & the Coming 15 Years?

•Coming and Rapid Development of ICT Society

• The Industries of the Future (by Alec Ross)

Disparity in the Post-Cold War Eastern Europe

vsEstonia（1.31 Mil.)

Ukrine（45.20 Mil.）

The Future of Technology Development

•The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces that will shape our future

DematerializationDecentralizationReal-time On DemandPlatform SynergyClouds

Becoming, Cognifying, Flowing, Screening, Accessing, Sharing, Filtering, Remixing, Interacting, Tracking, Questioning, Beginning

Dematerialization

•Using Less Material

• Digital Technology

The total amount of material the US citizen useto generate a unit of GDP

In 1870, 4kg In 1930, 1kg In 1977, 0.61kg In 2000, 0.28kg

Products to ServicesOwnership to Access

ICT-ized ASEAN CountriesNumber of Internet Users in 2000 and 2016

（Japan and ASEAN Countries）

Population（2016）

Internet User（2000）

Internet User（2016, 6)

Increasing Rate

(00→16）

Penetration

Japan 126 Mil. 47 Mil. 115 Mil. 1.4 91%ASEAN Countries 643 Mil. 11.44Mil. 275Mil. 23.0 43%

Population（2016）

Internet User（2000）

Internet User（2016,6)

Increase(00→16）

PenetrationFacebooker

(2016,6)Facebook

Penetration

Indonesia 258,316,051 2,000,000 88,000,000 43times 34.1% 88,000,000 34.1%

Malaysia 30,949,962 3,700,000 21,090,777 4.7times 68.1% 19,000,000 61.4%

Myanmar 56,890,418 1,000 11,000,000 10999times 19.3% 11,000,000 19.3%

Philippines 102,624,209 2,000,000 54,000,000 26times 52.6% 54,000,000 52.6%

Thailand 68,200,824 2,300,000 41,000,000 16.8times 60.1% 41,000,000 60.1%

Vietnam 95,261,021 200,000 49,063,762 244.3times 51.5% 40,000,000 42.0%

ASEAN Countries

[Source：http://www.internetworldstats.com]

ICT-ized ASEAN Countries(2016)

Mobile HP Owners

PopulationRatio

% of the Adult Population

HP Smart Phone PC TabletJapan 173.3Mil. 137% 88% 54% 89% 18%Indonesia 326.3Mil. 126% 85% 43% 15% 4%Malaysia 43.4Mil. 142% 96% 71% 35% 14%Philippines 119.2Mil. 117% 87% 55% 43% 24%Singapore 8.2Mil. 145% 96% 88% 71% 42%Thailand 82.8Mil. 122% 96% 64% 27% 11%Vietnam 143.0Mil. 152% 93% 55% 46% 12%

[Source：http://wearesocial.com]

Internet population is still growing Fast• Indonesia Internet users 100m users in 2016 (40% penetration)• Majority Internet users are 15-24, University GraduatesSrc: eMarketer 2015

76%

[source: Enda Nasution 2017]

But, in Indonesia…

[source: Enda Nasution 2017]

Question

How Has ICT-ization Been Transforming the Society, Politics and Economy?

Cases from Local Indonesia

Light and Shadow of ICT-ization

•Significant Impacts on Every Aspect of Life in Southeast Asia

（Government）Transparency, Speedy, Decentralization, Participation, Equalization（Global） Online Network

Less Private Space, Surveillance Society, Always-Online, Myopic, Demystifying Vertical Authority, Frequent Terorism

Could be bad or good, up to Actors

The Fourth Industrial Revolution?

Key: Z Generation (Born in 1995-2010）

Socio-political Transformation in ASEAN Countries

Democratization（Undermining Socialist/Authoritarian States):

Equalization：Bangkokian Lifestyle in Northeast Thailand

Accelerated LGBT MovementInclusion:

Anti Street Plant Cutting in Hanoi

Bersih Movement in Malaysia

Rise of Opposition Party in 2013 Election in Cambodia

Sinar Project in Constrained Environment of Malaysia

To SEA：

Socio-political Transformation in ASEAN Countries

Disparity： Digital Divide

Divided Online Access in Bersih Movement in Malaysia

State-Surveillance： Crack Down on Red Shirt by Thai Military

Indonesia?

Exclusion： Fierce (Religious, Nationalistic, Moral) Backlash against LGBT Movement

Impact of ICT-ization in Indonesia

• Idol Twitter, Idol Voting

• Online Hijabers Community

Lonely Suicide Terrorism using Online Bomb Making ManualRapid Increase of Radical Islamism Website（Government Ban on 22 Websites in ２０１６）

• Mobile Quran, Online Religious Advice（→Changing Reference on the Justice）

Social and Political Impact

• Election of Joko Widodo as President

Born in a Poor Family→Famous University→Businessman

→Mayor→Jakarta Governor→President

∵Democratization（1998-)Decentralization（2001-）

Local Head’s Political Will and Achievement for Success and Popularity

ICT： Cyberspace Strategy（Election, Policy, PR）

Focus:Transformation in Local Indonesia

In Urban and Rural Areas

ICT-ization in Local Indonesia

• Jembrana District (Bali)

•Surabaya City (East Java)

• Jogjakarta City

J-ID (Welfare, Voting and others）

e-Musrenbang, e-Budgeting, Surabaya Single Window

e-Office, e-Procurement

☓Banten: Fake e-Procurement

ICT-ization in Local Indonesia: Bandung City

Bandung Mayor: Ridwan Kamil

One of the Three Reformist Local Heads

Leading E-governance

Population：2.4 Million

Facebooker：2.1 Million

Cf. Mayor’s Instagram：4 Million!

60% of the Population: <40

Higher Institutes：30<

SMEs：55% of GRDP

Keys：Reformation Collaboration and Decentralization

Smart City Award (Digital Economy No.1)）（2016）

UNESCO Creative City Network (Design)（2015）

Online Power

•New Business Promotion

Registration is Enough for a Business with USD 5000 (30,000 New Businesses in Six Months)

Capital Fund with Less than USD 3000：No Collateral For a Group (More than 5 Persons) Finance（10,000 Finance Plans in One Year, No Arrear)

Market: Collaboration with Onlines Shop (Tokopedia) (Annual 16 Million Transaction)

Special Page for Bandung City in Facebook（First in ASEAN）

Online Power

• More Than 50 Mayor’s Routine Authorities to Sub-District Heads

• Rp.100 Mil. to Each of 1561 Neighborhood Associations

• Rp.100 Mil. to Each of 151 Town-Level Groups

• Decentralization

• Transparency

• Online Everyday Report Obligation by Town Head, Sub-district Head

• Obligation to Prompt Response to Community’s Complaints

Mayor’s Popularity: 80％

Just in a City?

Bottom-up Rural Transformation

Momentum: Village Law in 2014

→Decentralization to Villages(Third Wave of Democratization)

Road Map for Village Fund （2015-2019）2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Allocation toLocalGovernments 637,975.10 723,191.20 811,843.70 1,037,911.60 1,118,401.70Percentage ofVillageFund 1.42% 6.40% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%AmountofVillageFund(millionrupiah) 9,066.20 46,982.10 81,184.30 103,791.10 111,840.20PercentageofVillageFund perVillage(millionrupiah) 122.4 628.5 1,095.70 1,400.80 1,509.50

TotalAmountofAllocationforAlltheVillages(fromNationalandLocalGovs.) 44,589.00 86,356.40 126,204.20 162,786.30 175,494.90

Total AllocationtoEachVillage(millionrupiah) 601.8 1,115.20 1,703.30 2,197.10 2,368.60

Village Empowerment for Sustainability, Democracy and Autonomy

Economic Benefit

22

Village Empowerment?

• In Java：Easier（→Utilization of Online Application）

Game My Village

Bojonegoro District：Data Revolution at Village（NGO＋CSR)

Village Empowerment?

•Out of Java：Starting from Almost Nothing, Bordering Village, Certifying Land(←a Must for Village Fund and Mid-Term Village Plan）

Long-Term Perspective＋Trail and Error: Worthy of Trial for Sustainably Village Empowerment

Ex: Utilization of Drone

Conclusion• ICT-ization: Positive and Negative, but Noticeable Positive Side at Local-level (at Least until now)

•Positive Transformation Movement Down to Rural Areas For a While→Digital Dividend

•Enhance the Social/Economic/Political Life in General, but not always Lead to Reduce the Regional and Local Disparity→Continuing Digital Divide

• ICT Trial: Business as Usual in the Future→Slowing Down the Reformation Process

Conclusion

• Political Factors such as Change of Local Head→Serious Destabilizing Factors for Further Reformation

• Sharing the Idea of “Persistence Pays Off” among Stakeholders: Key for Long-term Local Development

• ICT-ization: Positive Transformation at Local Level, but Positive at National and Global Level?