political development & policy - chris blattman. reasons for violence.pdf1. unchecked elites....
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PoliticalDevelopment&Policy
Lecture2:Whywefightandthepathtopeace(PartI) ChrisBlattman
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Anyquestionsabouttheclass,theassignments,grading,officehours?
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Lasttime
• Whatdowemeanwhenwetalkabout“politicaldevelopment”?– Function
• Thecapabilitiesapproach:“Developmentasfreedom”– Orderandstability– Equality– Autonomy– Collectiveactionandcoordination
– Form• State:Centralized,rule-governed,depersonalizedauthoritywhomonopolizesviolence&shapessociety• Ruleoflaw:Equaltreatmentunderthelaw,includingforleaders• Democracy:Freeparticipation,representationindecision-making,&accountabilityofleaders
• Whyispoliticaldevelopmentimportant?– Manyofthesecapabilitiesandfreedomsareintrinsicallyimportantendsinthemselves– Someformsofpoliticaldevelopmentalsopromoteeconomicdevelopment,whichitselfpromotes
othercapabilitiesandfreedoms
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Todayandnexttwoclasses
• Aslightdetour:Anti-politicsmachines
• Mostly:Whyistherewarandpeace?
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First,adetour:Anti-politicsmachines
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Themostcommonmistakeoutsidersmake
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Averydifferentexample:JamesFergusoninLesotho
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Cowswillteachusanawfullotaboutpoliticsinthisclass
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“Theanti-politicsmachine”
• Solvingpovertyandimplementingprogramsisastechnicalproblem,notasocialandpoliticalproblem
• Developmentprojectsareapoliticalmachinesthatexisttoprovidesocialservices
• Cliques,factions,inefficiencies,andcorruptionareseenasimpedimentsratherthanstrategicreactionstotheenvironment
• Partisanandinterestedaidinterventionsaredisguisedasimpartialanddisinterested
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Whenarewemorelikelytobehavelikeanti-politicsmachines?
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“Peaceland”:ananthropologyofaidworkers.Arguesthatexpatriatepeacebuildersareanti-politicsmachines
“Whydosomewaysofworkingpersistwhenineffective?”
Itisnotcallousnessorstupidityorevil
Manypoliticaleconomyreasonsthatbadpolicypersists
Butshepointstounderappreciatedone:Developmentworkersinhabitadifferentsocialspace,haveadifferentlanguage,havedifferentsystemsofbeliefandmotivation,andhavebiasedwaysofcollectinginformation.
Canthisleadthemtodrawerroneousinferencesorapplyerroneoussolutions?
Question:Doyouthinkelitesorbureaucratsfromthatcountryareanydifferent?Whyorwhynot?
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Restoftoday+nexttwoclasses:Thereasonsforwars
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WhatIaimtocovertoday
• Conflictiscostlyissocial,economicandpoliticalterms
• Thatiswhycompetinggroupsusuallyfindapeacefulbargain.Waristheexceptionnottherule.– Ratherofthinkingofviolenceasnatural,fightingiswhathappenswhenpeacefulbargainsbreakdown
• Thereare5mainkindsofreasonswhybargainsbreakdown,whichIcall:1. Uncheckedelites2. Violentpreferences3. Systematicmistakes4. Uncertainty5. Impossiblebargains(Commitmentproblems)
• Mostconflictscanbeunderstoodintermsofthese5reasons,andmostsolutionstoconflictaresolutionstoatleastoneofthesefiveproblems
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I.Warascostly,violentbargaining
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Example1:RecentIndo-Pakistanconfrontation
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Example2:ElPacto deFusilMedellinandthe“PactoftheMachineGun”
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Thestoryofthe“BilliardsWar”Bellavista prisoninMedellin
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ThereislittlewarfaretodaybetweenMedellin’s“combos”(streetgangs)
Mue
rtede
Escob
ar
Losprimeroscombosdatandelos70s(pandillas,
vigilantesyasaltantes)yseunificanbajolafigurade
Escobar
Sometimientodelasbandas
porlosparamilitares
(PEPES)
Guerraentrelostraficantes
dedrogaSebastiányValenciano
Nuevoorden:oligopolioydiferentesestructurascriminales
(domesticacióndelcrimen)
EvolutionofthehomiciderateinMedellinGuerra
paramilitaryguerrillera
(ascensodeDonBerna)
Controlcentralizado(DonBerna)ynuevosenfoquesen
seguridadlocal
Desmovilización
de
losparamilitares
Extradiciónde
Don
Berna
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Thisissurprising,becauseyouwouldthinkhundredsofneighboringcomboswouldbearecipeforincessantwarfare
• Manyrovingbandits
• Evenifsomearestationarybandits,theyhaveincentivestotakeoverneighboringterritory
• Lookslikethesamesituationofanarchyastheglobalstatesystemthroughouthistory
• Andlotsofhotheadedyoungmenand“billiardswars”
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Whatkindsofforcespushtowardsgangwars?Whatforcespushagainst?
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Comboshavesomeincentivesforpeace
• Theproblemswithwar:– Yoursoldiersgetkilled– Customersforyourdrugs,
consumergoodsstayaway– Youhavetospendalotoftime
andmoneyarminganddefendingyourterritory
– Policenosearound
• Whatyouwouldliketodoisnegotiatepeacefullymuchofthetime
• Butthisishardtodoinasystemofanarchy
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Bothexamplespointtoasimilarinsight:Waristheexception,peaceistherule
• Somecommonplaceviews:– Waristhe“naturalstateofhumankind”– Ethnicviolenceandactiveconflictareubiquitous– Hostilerivalsaredestinedtofight
• However,therearemillionsofcompetitive,hostile,evenhatefulrivalriesintheworld.Mostofthemdon’tleadtolarge-scale,sustainedviolencebetweengroups(war)
• Rivalsfrequentlyskirmishviolently.Mostofthetime,however,theymanagetofindarrangementstoavoidwar
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Ararequantitativeexample:ViolenceinAfrica,1979-94
Fearon, James D., and David D. Laitin. “Explaining Interethnic Cooperation.” The American Political Science Review 90 (1996): 715–35.
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Askingwhythereiswarisreallyaskingwhythenormalpeacefuldealsdon’tgetmade. Mostrivalsdealratherthanfight.
“Waristhecontinuationofpoliticsbyothermeans.”
— CarlvonClausewitz,OnWar,1832
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Askingwhythereiswarisreallyaskingwhythenormalpeacefuldealsdon’tgetmade. Mostrivalsdealratherthanfight.
• Fightingisviolentbargaining
• Wewillseehowfightingistypicallycostlierthanfindingadeal– Thusthereisalmostalwaysapeacefulbargainthat
leavesbothsidesbetteroff– Enemiesfindwaystocompeteandnegotiatepeacefully
(evenifcutthroatanddirty)
• Insteadofasking“whatcausesfighting?”weoughttoaskaslightlydifferentquestion:“whendoenemiesswitchmodes,choosingcostlyviolenceovercuttingadeal?” “Waristhecontinuationof
politicsbyothermeans.”— CarlvonClausewitz,OnWar,1832
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Thismeansitisequallyimportanttostudythewarsthatneverwere
• Manystudiesofwarstracebackthehistoryofaconflicttofindits“rootcauses”
• Thisisaclassicerror:Selectiononthedependentvariable– Probablyleadstogettingthecausesofwarwrong
Question:Whatapproach(orresearchdesign)wouldimproveoutabilitytounderstandthecausesofwar?
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Butletmeillustratelogicbehindtheclaimthat“thereisalmostalwaysapeacefulbargainthatleavesbothsidesbetteroff”(adaptedfromFearon
1995)ImaginetherearetwosideswecallAthens andSparta.
Theyarefightingforapieworth$100.Ifthereisawar,thewinnergetsX=$100,theloser$0.
$100
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SupposeAthensbelievesthatitandSpartaareevenlymatched.ThusAthenshasap=50%chanceofwinningaconflict.
ButwarwouldcostitC=$10.
WhatAthensexpectstogetifitwins(50%chance):$100-10=$90
WhatAthensgetsifitloses(50%chance):$0-$10=-$10
Athens
WhatistheexpectedvalueofwartoAthens?
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Theincentivesforpeaceandthebargainingrange
• ThisimpliesthatAthenswouldfindanysplitgreaterthan$40preferabletowar
• The$10costtoeachsidecreatesabargainingrangethatis$10+$10=$20wide
• Thisisaversionofthe“Coasetheorem”:thereareincentivesforapeacefulbargain– IfAthenscanmakeSpartaatake-it-or-leave-itoffer,
wherethealternativeiswar,thenSpartawillalwaysacceptanyofferx>$40ratherthanwar
– Iftheynegotiateovermultiplerounds,bothpreferanySpartansharexinthebargainingrange$40<x<$60towar,andwillfindanxpeacefully
– Theactualsplitxthendependsontherulesandfirstmover
Sparta
AthensBargaining
range
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Here,itiscrucialthatwariscostly.Butinwhatsenseiswarcostly,andfor
whom?
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Now,supposeAthensstillhasa50%chanceofwinningaconflict(p=0.5),butitbeginsholding$75oftheterritory.Doyoupredictwar?Whyorwhynot?
Sparta
Athens
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Doyoufindthisaplausibledescriptionoftheincentivesfacinghumangroups?Whyorwhynot?
• Empiricallydoyouobservesomethingdifferentintheworld?
• Whatassumptionsinthissimplesetupstrikeyouasimplausible?
Sparta
AthensBargaining
range
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II.Thereasonsforwars
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Oneview:
“Thereisareasonforeverywarandawarforevery
reason.”
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Myview:True,butthereareonlysomanykinds ofreasons
• Weneedtostepbackandsimplifywhatseemslikeacomplexmessofcauses
• Onceyoudo,yourealizethereareonlyahandfulofexplanationsforwar.
• Eachonecanbeseenasadeparturefromthesimpleassumptionsthatleadtothepeacefulbargaininthepreviousexample
• Myargumentinthisclass:Mostexplanationsformostconflictsareoneoffivetypesofdeparturefromtheassumptions
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Almosteveryexplanationforfightingboilsdowntooneoffivekindsofproblem
1. Uncheckedelites.Groupsaremorelikelytofightwhendecision-makersignorethecostsofwarorreceivepersonalbenefits(andnooneholdsthemtoaccount)
2. Violentvalues.Sometimestheactofviolenceisitsownreward,intermsofstatus,emotion,orprinciple.Thesearenon-materialincentivesforwar
3. Systematicmistakes.Competitionisacomplexsetofdecisions,andhumanstendtosystematicmistakeswhenevaluatingcostsorchancesofvictory
4. Uncertainty.Whentheopposinggroup’sstrengthorintentionsareambiguous,takingachancebyfightingcanbethebestwaytoresolvetheuncertainty,sothatwaristheresultofariskygamble
5. Impossiblebargains/Commitmentproblems.Somecircumstancesgiveonesideanirresistibleincentivetoriskwar.Evenifthereisapeacefuldealthatmakesbothsidesbetteroff,thatdealisnon-credible,asatleastoncesidehasincentivestorenege
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1. Uncheckedelites
2. Violentpreferences
3. Systematicmistakes
4. Uncertainty
5. Impossiblebargains(Commitmentproblems)
Withthisframework,Itrytotobringtogethergame-theoreticandmore“behavioral”orpsychologicalexplanationsforwar
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1. Uncheckedelites
2. Violentpreferences
3. Systematicmistakes
4. Uncertainty
5. Impossiblebargains(Commitmentproblems)
(Theclaimthatwarsaretheexceptionnottheruleisalsoagametheoretic&rationalistclaim)
Withthisframework,Itrytotobringtogethergame-theoreticandmore“behavioral”orpsychologicalexplanationsforwar
Gametheoreticor“rationalist”
“Behavioral”scienceeconomics,psychology,evolutionarybiology,…
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Almostalloftheseexplanationswerepresagedby50yearsofscholarsconflictresearch
• Journalistsseemtofavor“greed”andvariouspassions– e.g.“Ancientethnichatreds”
• Economists&quantitativepoliticalscientistshavemostlyignoredemotions&miscalculation
• Understandingthecausesofaconflictismostlyreinterpretingwhathistoriansandpoliticalscientistssayinthefivecauses(andlookingforthethingstheymissed)
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Toillustrate,I’llstartwithaclassicexample(literally):Example3:Greekcitystates,Athens&Spartain4thcenturyB.C.E.
IpurposefullystartwithawarfewwillknowmuchaboutsoIcanillustratethe5reasonsinanoversimplifiedway,withanoversimplifiedversionofanimportantwarinworldhistory
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Twogreatpowers,representingtwovastlydifferentidealsandsocialorganization
• Athens– Birthplaceofdemocracy– Flourishingcenterforarts,philosophy,science– BuildsavastmaritimeempireinAegeanSea,theDelianLeague,providingsecurityfortribute
• Sparta– Ruledbymilitaryoligarchs– 4in5subjectsenslavedasagriculturalists– Everymalecitizentrainedfromearliestagetobeacompletespecialistinviolenceandwar– Disdainfortrades,littleinfrastructure,nowallsbecauseofidealsoffightingprowess– Alongwithitsalliesitdominatesavastlandempire,ThePeloponnesianLeague
Inthelate20thcentury,therivalryisoftencomparedtotheUSandUSSR
Ober,Josiah. TheriseandfallofclassicalGreece.PrincetonUniversityPress(2015).Kagan,Donald."ThePeloponnesianWar." NewYork:Penguin (2003).
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TheGreekWorld,circa431B.C.E.
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Thisbringsusbacktooursimpleexampleofincentivesforpeace
SupposetheGreekworldisapieworth$100.Ifthereisawar,thewinnergetsX=$100,theloser$0.
Hereisapossiblepeacefulsplitofthepieforequallypowerfulgroups(i.e.p=50%chanceofwinningawar)
Sparta
AthensTheGreekworld
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Theincentivesforpeaceandthebargainingrange
• ThisimpliesthatAthenswouldfindanysplitgreaterthan$40preferabletowar
• The$10costtoeachsidecreatesabargainingrangethatis$10+$10=$20wide
• Costlywarprovidesincentivesforapeacefulbargain– IfAthenscanmakeSpartaatake-it-or-leave-itoffer,
wherethealternativeiswar,thenSpartawillalwaysacceptanyofferx>$40ratherthanwar
– Iftheynegotiateovermultiplerounds,bothpreferanySpartansharexinthebargainingrange$40<x<$60towar,andwillfindanxpeacefully
– Theactualsplitxthendependsontherulesandfirstmover
Sparta
AthensBargaining
range
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FamedaccountofthewarcomesfromthehistorianThucydides:“Itwastheriseof Athens andthefearthatthisinstilledinSparta
thatmadewarinevitable.”
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SoimagineastateoftheworldwhereSpartabecomesmuchweaker,andhasonlya25%chanceofwinningawar.Itholds50%oftheterritory,
however.Whatdowepredictaunitary,rationalSpartatodo?
Thenewbargainingrange(ifc=$10stillforboth)
• Forexample,theSpartansmightbethemostadvancedatwar,butiftheysendtoomanytroopsaway,theirslaveempirerevolts
• OrperhapsthisisaworldwhereAthens’svasttradingempireandtributarysystem,theDelianLeague,givesitthewealthtorunalongwarorthenavytooutmatchSparta
• Eitherway,Spartawillacceptany$15<x<$35overwarinthisworld
• Spartawilltransferterritoryortributetoavoidawar
Sparta
AthensBargaining
range
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Insomeways,thisisnotaterribledescriptionoftheGreekworldbeforethePeloponnesianWar
• Therearemanyhostilerivalriesamongcitystates,butonlysomeofthemareviolent
• AllianceslikeTheDelianLeague(Athens)orThePeloponnesianLeague(Sparta)arepeacefuldeals(howeverunequal)– Weakerstatestransfertributetothestrongerones,ratherthanfight– Imperialismandtributearecommonalternativestoconflictthroughouthistory
• Whentheyareviolent(andtherearemanywarsbetweenGreekcitystates)theseconflictstendtobeofshortduration,oftendecidedinsingleskirmishesorbattles– Therearenolongandsustainedconflicts
Thus:HowtoexplainthePeloponnesianWar?
Also:CanwealsoexplaintheneedforviolentbattlessonormalamongGreekcitystates?(Asitisperhapsunfairtotreattheseas“skirmishes”andbasicallypeaceful)
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Butconflictdoesbreakout:ThePeloponnesianWar431–404BC
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Atypologyoffiveexplanations
1. Uncheckedelites
2. Violentpreferences
3. Systematicmistakes
4. Uncertainty
5. Impossiblebargains(Commitmentproblems)
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Whatifwerelaxunitaryactorassumption?Ifleadersignorethecostsofwar,thenbargainingrangeshrinks
• Totheextentthatleadersignorecosts,thisshrinksthebargainingrange– Sometimescalledan“agencyproblem”
• Butifabargainingrangestillexists,warstillremainsa“puzzle”– Butnarrowerrangescanaccentuateasymmetricinformationandcommitmentproblemsandothercausesofwar
Sparta
AthensNewBargaining
range
e.g.Costsbornebyserfsandsoldiers,not
Spartancitizens
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Underwhatcircumstancescoulduncheckedleadersaloneeliminate
peacefulbargains?
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Now,Ihavenottoldyoumuchaboutculture,power,orpoliticsintheseGreekcity-states,butthisiswhatyougetfromaGoogleImagesearchof…
“Athens” “Sparta”
Whatkindsoffactorsoccurtoyouaspossiblymakingtheseelitesmoreorlesslikelytointernalizethecostsofwar?
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Whywouldleaderswouldactanythingbutselfishly?Whendorulersinternalizethecostsofwarandsolvetheagencyproblem?
Psychological/behavioral• Internally-imposedregardforothers
– Yournature,ethics,preferences
• Arisesfromsocialization,culture,genetics
• Humansdisplay“socialpreferences”suchasaltruismandreciprocity
• Weseemtobebiasedtoour“ingroup”– “Parochialaltruism”– Thedefinitionandwidthofthein-group
matters
Political/institutional• Externally-imposedregardforothers
– Therules,power,andconstraintsimposedbyothers
• Aproductofhowpowerisdistributedinasociety,andhowithasbeeninstitutionalized
• Moredecentralized,inclusive,professionalizedformalsystems,andstrongerinformalsystemsofnorms,tendtorestrainleaders
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RecallAmbrogio Lorenzetti’sAllegoryofGoodandBadGovernment(Sienna,Italy,1338-39):Goodrulersareconstrained
Ruler
Peace
Fortitude
Prudence
Justice
Magnanimity
Temperance
Justice
Civicofficersandelitecitizens
Rope Rope
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Whycallthisreason“uncheckedelites”ratherthan“selfishleaders”?Becauseself-regardisuniversalbutchecksarenot.Groupsvarymainlyinthechecksupon,notvirtueof,theirleaders
Ruler
Peace
Fortitude
Prudence
Justice
Magnanimity
Temperance
Justice
Civicofficersandelitecitizens
Rope Rope
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Atypologyoffiveexplanations
1. Uncheckedelites
2. Violentpreferences
3. Systematicmistakes
4. Uncertainty
5. Impossiblebargains(Commitmentproblems)
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Therearesomecircumstanceswhereviolencebecomesitsownreward
• Therearemanyexamplesofviolenceasintrinsicallyvaluable– anemotionalrewardthatcomesfromfighting– Moralbeliefsorreligiousvalues
• Exterminatingfalsegodsorideologies
– Vengeance• Revengeisintrinsicallyvalued
• Again,narrowerbargainingrangescanaccentuatetheothercausesofwar
• Intheextreme,onesidecanactuallygetnetbenefitsfromwar,sothatwarisnopuzzle
Sparta
AthensNewbargaining
range
StickingittotheAtheniansweighsagainstcosts
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Let’sconsidervengeance,withamoderndigression
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Dowehaveingrainedfairnessnorms&awillingnesstopaytopunishinjustice?Evidencefromexperimentalgamese.g.FehrandGachter 2000
• “Dictatorgame”– PersonAget$X– AchoosesX≥x≥0togivepersonB– Measures“altruism”
• Ultimatumgame– PersonAget$X– AchoosesX≥x≥0togivepersonB– Bcanchoosewhethertoacceptxorrejectandbothget0
– Measures“fairness”
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Homoeconomicus?Offerfromanultimatumgamein15smallscale-societies
• Greatdealofsimilarityacrosstimeandpopulations,withoffersof40-50%common
• Offerslessthan20%arefrequentlyrejected
• Modalofferina“DictatorGame”oftenzero,thoughaverageofferistypically20-30%
• Bothresultssuggestpeopleactoutofasenseoffairnessandprosociality
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Indeed,“injustice”isacommonexplanationinhistoriesandethnographiesofwhoparticipatesinrevoltsandrebellions
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Itisdifficulttoignoreemotionasafactorinconflict,andintrinsicpreferencesforpunishmentorjusticeareonewaytobringemotioninto
ourframework
Allbooksaboutallrevolutionsbeginwithachapterthatdescribesthedecayoftotteringauthorityorthemiseryandsufferingsofthepeople.
Theyshouldbeginwithapsychologicalchapter,onethatshowshowaharassed,terrifiedmansuddenlybreakshisterror,stopsbeingafraid.
Thisunusualprocess,sometimesaccomplishedinaninstantlikeashockoralustration,demandsilluminating.Mangetsridoffearandfeelsfree.Withoutthattherewouldbenorevolution.
— Ryszard Kapuscinski,ShahofShahs,1985
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Manyformsofpoliticalparticipationarehardtoexplainwithoutanappealtopreferences:intrinsicmotivationsoremotionalrewards
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BacktoAthensversusSparta
• Ex-antethisdoesnotlooklikeawarofvengeanceorideals– Despitethedifferences,littleindicationthis
wasanintrinsicallyvalue-basedwar– Norealmotiveforvengeanceattheoutset
• Buthistoriansofthewartellusthatviolence,oncebegun,elicitedpowerfulemotionsandresponses.
• Couldthishelpexplainpersistentwarsevenifstartedbyotherforces?
• Ifso,whydobothpartiestaketherisk?– Ariskygamble?Miscalculation?
Anger,frustrationandadesireforvengeanceincreasedasthefightingdraggedon,resultinginaprogressionofatrocities…
— Kagan(2003,p.xxiv)
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TherearealsoinstancesoftheSpartansstrategicallyusingemotionsandpreferencesforjustice
• Spartahasworld’sgreatestlandarmy– Theyknowthattheycannotbeatthenavel
powerAthensatsea
• LeaderofAthensknowsthattheywillbedefeatediftheymeetSpartaonfield
• HenceAthensbuildstheLongWalls– Spartanscannotbreachthem
• SpartansroamAtheniancountrysideburningvillagesandpropertiesattemptingtoenrageandembarrassnoblesandcitizens– GoadingAtheniansintothebattlefield
ThelongwallsofAthens
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Informal“assignment”:Thinkofreasonsforwarthatyoudonot
thinkbelonginthismodel
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Also,intermsofyourreadings…