Policy to Mitigate Effects of ENSO-Policy to Mitigate Effects of ENSO-Related Climate VariabilityRelated Climate Variability

James W. HansenJames W. Hansen

The Big Picture

• What do you know about El Niño and La Niña?

• From a policy perspective, how would you view El Niño and La Niña?

– an impending disaster?

– a degree of foreknowledge?

– an opportunity?

• …all of the above.

http://www.davidsuzuki.org/Climate_Change/Impacts/Extreme_Weather/El_Nino.asp

What would you do differently with advance information?

“…then there was famine in all the lands, but in all the land of Egypt there was bread.”

-- Genesis 41:54

What would you do differently with advance information?

• Who are you?

• What decisions do you make that are sensitive to climate?

• What information does ENSO state give you?

• What additional information do you need? How will you get it?

• With whom do you need to cooperate?

What conditions must be in place for society to benefit from ENSO information?

human vulnerability

decision capacity

climate predictability

opportunity

Benefit results when prediction leads to decisions that reduce vulnerability to impacts of climate variability.

Preconditions for Benefit

• Vulnerability & motivation

• Decision options

• Predictability of climate

• Communication

• Institutions and policy

vulnerability

decision capacity

predictability

opportunity

Forecast information is useful when it addresses need that is real

and recognized. Decision makers must be aware of climate risk,

and motivated to use forecasts to manage that risk.

Preconditions for Benefit

• Vulnerability & motivation

• Decision options

• Predictability of climate

• Communication

• Institutions and policy

vulnerability

decision capacity

predictability

opportunity

Benefits are conditioned on the existence and understanding of

decision options that are sensitive to information in forecasts, and

compatible with goals and constraints.

Preconditions for Benefit

• Vulnerability & motivation

• Decision options

• Predictability of climate

• Communication

• Institutions and policy

vulnerability

decision capacity

predictability

opportunity

Relevant components of climate variability must be predictable in

relevant periods, at an appropriate scale, with sufficient accuracy

and lead time for decisions.

Preconditions for Benefit

• Vulnerability & motivation

• Decision options

• Predictability of climate

• Communication

• Institutions and policy

vulnerability

decision capacity

predictability

opportunity

Successful use requires that the right people receive, understand,

and correctly interpret the right information at the right time, in a

form that can be applied to their climate-sensitive decisions.

Preconditions for Benefit

• Vulnerability & motivation

• Decision options

• Predictability of climate

• Communication

• Institutions and policy

vulnerability

decision capacity

predictability

opportunity

Sustained operational use of forecasts requires institutional

commitment to provide information and other support, and policies

that support institutions and farmers.

How will El Niño impacts us?The Attribution Problem

• Societally-important impacts of ENSO?• Does El Niño imply adverse impacts?• Are impacts of El Niño & La Niña opposite?• Would you expect impacts of the next El

Niño to be the same as the last El Niño?– Magnitude– Timing– Spatial patterns– Other oceans– Chaotic atmosphere

How will El Niño impacts us?The Attribution Problem

• Temporal consistency– Probabilistic thinking– Appropriate use of time-series data– Statistical hypothesis testing

• Spatial coherence

• Mechanistic understanding

• Secondary and tertiary impacts

• Be open to surprise

How will El Niño impacts us? Ex-post vs. ex-ante

• Ex-post:– Losses that follow a climate shock– Possibly persistent impacts of coping

responses

• Ex-ante: – Opportunity costs associated with conservative

strategies of risk-averse decision makers in anticipation of the possibility of a shock

What would you do differently?

• Forecasts have no intrinsic value.

• Improved outcomes associated with

improved decisions do.

What would you do differently? Sectors

• Agriculture• Food insecurity early warning and response• Water resource management• Health

– Vectors– Sanitation

• Energy– Demand– Hydropower supply

• Disaster management

What would you do differently? Scales

• Examples from agriculture:– Field-scale crop management

– Farm-scale resource allocation

– Community decisions, e.g., Florida potato farmers

– Watershed-scale irrigation distribution

– Sub-national scale food stock management

– National requests for international food aid

• Individual vs. market vs. vs. public policy

What would you do differently? Scales

What would you do differently? Hazard vs. Development

• What is more valuable, a skillful forecast of adverse or favorable climatic conditions?

• Hazard perspective:– Crisis response– Ex-post impacts

• Development perspective– Managing variability– Includes ex-ante impact

• Both address “risk management”• Competing or complementary?

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Where Does Public Policy Enter?

• Policy drives institutions.– Institutional mandate

– Allocation of public resources

• Policy constrains or enhances flexibility, therefore resilience, of decision makers.

• Policy influences overall economy.

• Policy influences risk.

• Tactical, climate-sensitive policy decisions.

Where Does Public Policy Enter? Interventions

• Crisis response

Crises tend to affect diverse populations and sectors, crossing traditional institutional mandates. Crisis response often calls for coordination or consolidation among diverse institutions.

Where Does Public Policy Enter? Interventions

• Crisis response

• Disaster preparedness

Advanced preparation improves effectiveness and reduces cost of response, but requires ongoing political will, and solid probabilistic understanding of potential impacts.

Where Does Public Policy Enter? Interventions

• Crisis response

• Disaster preparedness

• Institutional support for prediction

Primarily national meteorological services. Due to cost of ocean monitoring and dynamic prediction capacity, international institutions play a role. Met services must support meteorological observation networks.

Where Does Public Policy Enter? Interventions

• Crisis response

• Disaster preparedness

• Institutional support for prediction

• Institutional support for communication

Goals should be timeliness, equitable access, relevance, and honest characterization of uncertainty. Options include internet, media, extension services. Media low cost but few safeguards against abuse.

Where Does Public Policy Enter? Interventions

• Crisis response• Disaster preparedness• Institutional support for prediction• Institutional support for communication

• Institutional support for individual/community response

Key questions: Is information enough? Based in stakeholder or climate institutions? Existing or new institutions? Key challenge: Gap between meteorological and stakeholder institutional networks.