significant change of extratropical natural variability associated with tropical enso anomaly
DESCRIPTION
Significant Change of Extratropical Natural Variability associated with Tropical ENSO Anomaly. Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA. Potential Predictability =. Var (climate signal) _________________________________ Var (climate signal) + Var ( climate noise ). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Significant Change of Extratropical Natural Variability
associated with Tropical ENSO Anomaly
Wilbur Y. Chen
Climate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
Potential Predictability =
Var (climate signal)_________________________________
Var (climate signal) + Var (climate noise)
Conclusionover the NE Pac region, where ENSO signal is rich
Time mean flow (ENSO signal) (climate signal)
El Nino type
La Nina type
Spread (natural variability) (climate noise)
Significantly smaller
Significantly larger
Data Seasonal Forecast Model (Kanamitsu, et al. 2002) T42 & T62
Model Initialized in
~Sep of 1979 – 1999
~Oct of 1979 – 1999
~Nov of 1979 – 1999
~Dec of 1979 - 1999
Target season
JFM of 1980 – 2000
JFM of 980 – 2000
JFM of 1980 – 2000
JFM of 1980 - 2000
# of runs
10*21
10*21
10*21
10*21
Data Seasonal Forecast Model (Kanamitsu, et al. 2002) T42 & T62
Model Initialized in
~Sep of 1979 – 1999
~Oct of 1979 – 1999
~Nov of 1979 – 1999
~Dec of 1979 - 1999
Target season
JFM of 1980 – 2000
JFM of 980 – 2000
JFM of 1980 – 2000
JFM of 1980 - 2000
# of runs
10*21
10*21
10*21
10*21
84 JFMS
T62
84 JFMS
200 Jans
200 Febs
200 Mars
El Nino La Nina
Conclusionover the NE Pac region, where ENSO signal is rich
Time mean flow (ENSO signal) (climate signal)
El Nino type
La Nina type
Spread (natural variability) (climate noise)
Significantly smaller
Significantly larger
Potential Predictability =
Var (climate signal)_________________________________
Var (climate signal) + Var (climate noise)