poli 212 introduction to international politicsslide 2. session outline the key topics to be covered...

College of Education

School of Continuing and Distance Education2014/2015 – 2016/2017

POLI 212

Introduction to International

Politics

Session 7– DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN POLICY AND RATIONAL CHOICE AND FOREIGN POLICY

Lecturer: Dr. Bossman E. AsareContact Information: [email protected]/[email protected]

Session Overview

– Overview • This session brings us to an examination of the factors that

influence the foreign policy of countries as well as discussions onrational choice and foreign policy.

• For the factors that determine foreign policy, students will beintroduced to several variables that shape what countries dointernationally. It is essential to point out that the factors thatinfluence one country’s foreign policy will be different from that ofanother country.

• Some of the factors we shall look at are level of economicdevelopment, geopolitics (the location of countries), type ofgovernment, and size of population. For the rational choice andforeign policy, we will look at the steps involved in making rationalchoice decisions and the limitations to rationality.

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Session Outline

The key topics to be covered in the session are as follows:

• Topic One: Determinants of Foreign Policy

• Topic Two: Rational Choice decision making and foreign policy

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Reading List

• Read Chapter 4 of Bossman E. Asare, 2016

• Chapter 3 of Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Shannon L. Blanton, 2010 (Read the subtopics on the session)

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DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN POLICY

Topic One

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Determinants of foreign policy

• There are a number of variables that determine or influence whatcountries do abroad. Under the different forms of foreign policy insession six, we indicated that countries can have dependent, original,hostile, and pacific foreign policies. The kinds of foreign policy typicallychampioned by countries tend to be shaped by several factors.

• For instance, a country committed to an original foreign policy, such asreducing poverty in a particular region of the world, must have enoughfinancial and technical resources to be able to accomplish this. Withdeterminants of foreign policy, we are trying to make the case thatwhatever countries choose to do abroad have their roots in certainvariables. These are the factors we will look at are:

• Geopolitics, level of economic development, type of government,strategic natural resource endowment, military capability, family ofnations, and leadership characteristics.

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Factors that determine foreign policy

• 1. One of the popular factors that determine what countries do abroad isgeopolitics. Geopolitics is how geographical factors shape politics, or howthe location of countries influences what they do internationally.Countries that find themselves in the midst of other countries may actdifferently from countries separated by thousands of miles and oceans.Most countries in Western Europe before World War 1 and World War IIhad strong military or they spent more money on defense partly becausethey were closer to each other and they somewhat knew what othercountries were doing.

• Partially because the United States is separated from Europe, she decidednot to be involved in European affairs during the two major wars until shewas provoked by other countries. In all these illustrations, the UnitedStates could have chosen not to have friendly foreign policies towards theEuropeans, and the major powers in Europe might decide to be friendlytowards the other since they were all capable of attacking the othercountries. The United States probably would have joined both world warsearlier if she was located in Western Europe.

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Factors that determine foreign policy (contd.)

• 2. Moreover, level of economic development can influence the foreign policies ofcountries. Countries that are economically developed are in a better position toadvance an original or independent foreign policy than economicallyunderdeveloped countries. There are certain kinds of foreign policy objectives thatcan only be realized with the help of financial resources and, as a result, not allcountries are capable of pursuing such policies. The United States decision tomilitarily overthrow the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003 required enormousfinancial commitments that would be difficult for any other single country in theinternational system.

• Quite a number of rich countries have specific agencies responsible for humandevelopment and other related activities in the developing world. However,developing countries generally do not have such agencies to promotedevelopment in other parts of the world. The US has United States Agency forInternational Development (USAID); the United Kingdom has Department forInternational Development (DFID- now UK Aid); Norway has Norwegian Agency forDevelopment Cooperation (NORAD); Australia has Australian Agency forInternational Development (AusAID); Denmark has Danish InternationalDevelopment Agency (DANIDA); and Germany has German DevelopmentCooperation (GIZ).

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• 3. Besides, the type of government in a country sometimes influences foreignpolicy. Consistent with the democratic peace theory, countries that are democratichave a propensity to promote friendly or pacific foreign policies towards otherdemocracies. Though some studies have advanced the illiberal peace theory todemonstrate how autocracies are friendly towards other autocracies, there is notenough evidence to support this theory.

• Democracies generally believe that they can sort out their differences throughnegotiations and other peaceful means, rather than resorting to the use ofviolence. Citizens in a democracy see citizens in other democracies as one peoplein the sense that they all want to have their freedoms protected by theirgovernments.

• When leaders of democracies espouse aggressive foreign policies towards otherdemocracies, their citizens will condemn them. Can you imagine United Statespolicymakers being hostile to the British and Canadian Governments? Can youenvisage the government of Ghana being hostile to her Nigerian counterpart? Thepresence of checks and balances and the broader limitations on the authority ofthose who make foreign policies in democracies ensure that foreign policydecisions towards other democracies promote the core values shared by almost alldemocracies.

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• 4. The presence of certain strategic natural resources can influence what countriesdo internationally. Strategic natural resources are those natural resources that arealmost necessities for almost all countries. Let us take petroleum (oil) intoconsideration. Almost all countries in the world use this resource for severalpurposes. In Ghana and other sub-Saharan African countries, we mostly use oil forour vehicles and cooking. Anytime there is shortage of petrol for cars and LiquefiedPetroleum Gas (LPG) for cooking, you always hear that government is doingeverything feasible to provide these commodities on the market.

• Primarily, oil producing countries know that in spite of what they do or they do notdo countries will still need their oil. This is perhaps one of the main reasons whysince the Iranian Revolution of 1979, Iran has survived in the midst of numeroussanctions imposed by the United States, the United Nations and some westerncountries. It is therefore not surprising that Iran at times appears provoking andbellicose in her rhetoric towards United States, Britain, the United Nations, andothers. One of the reasons why Nigeria is incontrovertibly the hegemon in WestAfrica is the revenue from oil exports.

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• 5. Military capability of countries is also extremely important in determining theirforeign policy. In the history of the international system, great powers havedemonstrated their military might in their foreign policies. This was more felt inthe two major world wars of the 20th Century and the Cold War. The world haswitnessed several instances where certain countries have promoted aggressive orhostile foreign policies because they know they have the military capabilities todefend themselves against any external attacks. Mostly great powers or militarilystrong countries believe that when push comes to shove you will need yourmilitary as the last resort in foreign policy.

• Mostly we see countries that have strong military pursuing and fighting theterrorists. There are many reasons underpinning military capability. Perhaps thefactor discussed at length in the literature is economic development. Theeconomic development case for military might is that countries that areeconomically developed can have a strong military. The reason is that thesecountries can spend huge sums of money on their military. This expenditure couldreflect in the weapons and other equipments used by the military.

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• The mere reason that a country is economically developed does not necessarilyimply that the country will be strong militarily. Rather, it is about spending on themilitary. The United States is the hegemon in the world largely because of theexpenditure on the military which has made her military technologically savvy torespond to threats in almost all parts of the world. The military in most developingcountries is weak partly because they are underfunded.

• Another reason underlying military capability is the size of population or size ofmilitary. Both China and India are seriously in discussions of great power statusbecause of the size of their populations. At times, combat is about numbersespecially in ground warfare. With populations exceeding one billion each, bothChina and India are capable of having more than three million men and womeneach in uniform. In Africa, Nigeria has been the leader in most peacekeepingoperations because, being the most populous country in Africa, allows her to havemany men and women in uniform. In personal discussions with some officers ofthe Ghana Armed Force, they confirmed that Nigeria has far stronger military thanGhana.

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• 6. Moreover, family of nations influences what some countries do internationally.Castles (1993: xiii) has grouped countries into what he calls the family of nations.According to Castles (1993: xiii) the “concept derives from the notion that it maybe possible to identify distinct families of nations, defined in terms of sharedgeographical, linguistic, cultural and/or historical attributes and leading todistinctive patterns of policy outcomes.” He groups countries into English-speaking,Scandinavian, Germanic and Latin. Castles’ main contention is that thecategorizations of countries manifest similar policy outcomes.

• The case for this is that countries with similar historical, linguistic, and otherattributes may likely promote friendly foreign policies towards each other. Perhapsthis is one of the main reasons why the English at Home (United Kingdom) andEnglish Abroad (the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) havelargely remained as friends in the global system. One would be surprised to hearthat a Scandinavian country has become aggressive towards another Scandinaviancountry. In Africa we hear of meetings and the friendships between Francophonecountries on one side and Anglophone countries on the other. This is mainly, butnot exclusively, because of a shared history of British rule and the Englishlanguage. Ghana and Nigeria usually see themselves as one people.

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• 7. A final variable I want to explain is the negative characteristics of leaders ofcountries or personality disorders. A number of studies in international relationshave concluded that leadership matters in foreign policy. The characteristics ofthose who make foreign policy decisions for countries are extremely important inunderstanding some of the policies promoted by countries. This variable maybemore applicable to developed and other great powers in the international systembecause many developing countries do not put a lot of emphasis on foreign policy,or at least foreign policy ranks low on their scales of preference.

• Some of the popular personality disorders are narcissism and paranoia. Accordingto McDermott (2007:230) “Narcissists are people who are self-absorbed andincapable of empathizing with the needs or experiences of others.” Leaders in thiscategory do not really care about the outcome of their aggressive or hostilepolicies towards other countries. Such leaders may support economic sanctionsthat may end up denying citizens of other countries essential drugs and othernecessities of life. As well, they may be predisposed to supporting militaryintervention under the pretext of promoting their worldview. In essence,narcissists are unconscionable and can do things that will take other countries bysurprise.

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Sample questions

• How does the level of economic development influence foreign policy?

• How is geopolitics relevant in Burkina Faso’s foreign policy?

• What are the factors that influence Ghana's foreign policy?

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RATIONAL CHOICE DECISION MAKING AND FOREIGN POLICY

Topic Two

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Rational choice

• Those who make foreign policy decisions for their countries often claim that theyare rational actors or they follow rational choice decision making. Remember thatwe said realists assume that states are rational actors (chapter two). Rational choicedecision making suggests that decision makers evaluate the costs and the benefitsof all options available to them, and when they are convinced that the benefits willexceed the cost, they will go ahead with the decision. There are four main stages inrational choice decision making. The first involves leaders recognizing andidentifying problems. Foreign policy makers should be able to ascertain that this is aproblem that has to be addressed and they must also define the problem in such away that others can identify with that problem.

• The second is goal selection. Here, foreign policymakers determine what they wantto achieve with a particular foreign policy. They will settle on a number of objectivesand they will indicate those they consider to be the most important to be achievedand those not really important. Third, for each alternative, they will specify the costand the broad implications of that option. The final stage is the selection of thealternative that will yield the greatest benefit. For this final stage, it is alwaysimportant for decision makers to be convinced that the choice they are making isthe best based on certain criteria. After all, there will be no rationality in thedecision making if those making the decisions cannot justify why they chose certaincourses of actions at the expense of others.

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Limitations to Rational choice

• On the contrary, there are certain limitations to rationality. We haveindicated that often decision makers claim their decisions are rooted inrationality but on several occasions, they get it wrong and even bringuntold sufferings on their countries. A typical example is the United States’intervention in Iraq in 2003. US policymakers before the invasion made thecase that the war would be like a sprint (it would be won quickly like 100or 200 meters race).

• More than seven years since the war began Iraq was still not a stableplace. In the end, the United States and coalition casualties were morethan 4000 soldiers, and many civilian workers have also lost their lives.Various estimates put the Iraqi death toll between 500,000 and 1,000,000.Similarly, the amount of money the United States spent in that war wasmore than 900 billion US dollars. Other coalition partners (US allies whofought alongside the US in Iraq), such as the United Kingdom, also spenthuge sums of money in Iraq. This is a clear example of miscalculation onthe part of those who predicted that the war would end quickly.

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Limitations to Rational choice (contd.)

• As a student, sometimes, you make certain decisions and you are convinced thatyou made a rational decision. But you also realize that the outcome of some ofyour rational decisions make you feel like you acted irrationally. The same appliesto leaders of countries. One of the impediments to rationality is boundedrationality. This concept was introduced by Herbert Simon. Bounded rationalitymeans decision makers capacity to choose the best or the most appropriatedecision is limited by factors beyond their control. Some of these factors are lackof information and limited knowledge.

• Bounded implies limited, and in decision making, if you lack knowledge orunderstanding and lack information about an issue you are trying to address, it islikely you will end up making a lot of mistakes. The former US Defense Secretary,Donald Rumsfeld, who was one of the architects of the Iraq war, made it clear thatthe Iraqi people would see the United States’ soldiers as liberators with thetoppling of the Saddam Hussein regime. However, based on what occurred afterthe toppling of the regime and the subsequent killing of Saddam Hussein followingthe passage of death sentence by an Iraqi court, the Iraqis became more polarized,and what the United States had envisioned did not materialize. Primarily, USpolicymakers misjudged how the Iraqis would see them after overthrowing theiralleged dictator.

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• A second impediment to rational choice is satisficing. Satisficing isthe inclination for decision makers to choose the first satisfactoryoption without taking time to examine the other options that arelikely to be better than the option they have selected (Kegley 2009).

• This affects rational decision making because, once decision makersare told this course of action will help their countries to accomplishcertain objectives, they will accept that course of action and theywill close the door to other courses of actions that will be betterthan those they have selected. Once they pursue the satisficingdecision, the outcome becomes devastating to their countries.Primarily, with satisficing, decision makers make satisfactorydecisions but not optimal decisions that will yield the greatestbenefit to their countries.

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• Cognitive dissonance is also an impediment to rationalchoice decision making.

• This is when leaders and individuals make a consciouseffort to deny discrepancies between preexisting ideasand beliefs and any new information.

• Leaders or foreign policymakers try to state that whatthey did was not influenced by any preconceived ideas.

• However, a careful evaluation of their actions andinactions would reveal that there was discrepancybetween new information and old information.

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Sample questions

• What is the meaning of rational choice decision-making?

• List the steps one must follow to make a rational choice decision.

• Describe any two limitations of rational choice.

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Conclusion of Session seven

• In this session, students have gone through extensivediscussions on the factors that determine the foreign policyof countries and rational choice and foreign policy.

• I believe you are in a position to identify some of thefactors that shape the foreign policy of Ghana.

• Students should also be discuss the problems decisionmakers encounter as they claim to be rational actors.

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References

• Bossman E. Asare, 2016. International Politics: The Beginner’s Guide- Updated and Expanded, Digibooks, Ghana.

• Charles W. Kegley Jr. and Shannon L. Blanton, 2010. World Politics: Trend and Transformation, Wadsworth: CengageLearning. Denhardt, Robert & Janet Denhardt (2009) Public Administration: An Action Orientation (6th Edition), Thomson Wadsworth: USA.

• Goldstein, Joshua & Jon Pevehouse (2006) International Relations, Pearson Longman: USA.

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poli 212 introduction to international politicsslide 2. session outline the key topics to be covered...

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